PECOTAs are out

[Coach C]

Almost forgot.

 

Anybody got Travis Hafner's?

 

296/407/585

 

Yeesh.... That's pretty solid. Hopefully the fella can stay healthy.

PECOTA is the least optimistic but all projection systems are pretty close. Nothing really earth shattering, he'll put up about 1000 OPS again.

 

Easily.

 

I can see him doing 300/410/590 with 50 HR's and 130 RBI's if he manages to play 150+ games.

 

He could have easily eclipsed that last year, had it not been for that unfortunate hand injury.

 

Probably more like 40 HRs and 120 RBIs if his slg is 590 and he plays 150 games.

 

Except this year, he only played 129 games when he hit 42HRs and 117RBI

 

That's where I came with my analysis of the 50/130.

[nilodnayr]

Almost forgot.

 

Anybody got Travis Hafner's?

 

296/407/585

 

Yeesh.... That's pretty solid. Hopefully the fella can stay healthy.

PECOTA is the least optimistic but all projection systems are pretty close. Nothing really earth shattering, he'll put up about 1000 OPS again.

 

Easily.

 

I can see him doing 300/410/590 with 50 HR's and 130 RBI's if he manages to play 150+ games.

 

He could have easily eclipsed that last year, had it not been for that unfortunate hand injury.

 

Probably more like 40 HRs and 120 RBIs if his slg is 590 and he plays 150 games.

 

Except this year, he only played 129 games when he hit 42HRs and 117RBI

 

That's where I came with my analysis of the 50/130.

 

Then you are assuming his slugging is 660, not 590.

[CubinNY]

Also http://www.fangraphs.com now has under the "season stats" tab, Bill James, CHONE, ZiPS, and Marcel projections.

 

fangraphs.com is possible the greatest place for information about professional baseball known to man.

 

Here is a comparison of Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=6307&playerid2=518&playerid3=&position=OF&page=8&type=full

[imb]

all four projections have Zambrano's era within 0.02 of each other.

[nilodnayr]

all four projections have Zambrano's era within 0.02 of each other.

 

Unfortunately, PECOTA has been the best at predicting pitchers, and they are 1/3rd of a run less optimistic about Z, predicting a 3.79 ERA.

[Guest]

Also http://www.fangraphs.com now has under the "season stats" tab, Bill James, CHONE, ZiPS, and Marcel projections.

 

fangraphs.com is possible the greatest place for information about professional baseball known to man.

 

Here is a comparison of Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=6307&playerid2=518&playerid3=&position=OF&page=8&type=full

Boy, that trend line on Floyd's rc/27 makes 2005 really, really look anomalous, doesn't it?