Interesting scouting report on Colvin

[mg420]

http://www.cubshub.com/article.php?story=20061222115435461

[RynoRules]

Sounds encouraging. If he continues to improve his patience at the plate he looks like a .375-.400 OBP guy. ETA 2009 or 2010?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't see the comparison to Luis Gonzalez.

[Mephistopheles]

They should not bend the facts. If I am not mistaken Colvin finished 2005 in a 4 for 39 slump, so "He started the year off hot, including a 19 game hitting streak and finished the year hitting safely in 32 of his final 40 games" might be true (I don't know if it is or isn't) but the slump must have been those final eight games, heh. Call it a shameless plug, but I like mine better.

[Outshined_One]

I see more Jacque Jones in him than Luis Gonzalez.

[TruffleShuffle]

Sounds encouraging. If he continues to improve his patience at the plate he looks like a .375-.400 OBP guy. ETA 2009 or 2010?

 

I don't think he looks like that at all.

[Balsa]

How often do you have a guy that can hit in the middle of the lineup that can lay down a bunt when needed or isn't afraid to hit the ball to the opposite field to advance the runner.

Ugh. Just ugh. :x

[UK1679666180]

There's nothing wrong with that. You don't want to use it in most game situations for a middle of the order hitter, but it's definitely better to have a 3-4-5 hitter that can be a good situational hitter (which was likely the overall gist) while having the standard qualities of a 3-4-5 hitter rather than one who doesn't.

[Balsa]

They should not bend the facts. If I am not mistaken Colvin finished 2005 in a 4 for 39 slump, so "He started the year off hot, including a 19 game hitting streak and finished the year hitting safely in 32 of his final 40 games" might be true (I don't know if it is or isn't) but the slump must have been those final eight games, heh. Call it a shameless plug, but I like mine better.

I like the analysis of your posts, but you need an editor to correct for spelling and typographical errors. :P

[Balsa]

There's nothing wrong with that. You don't want to use it in most game situations for a middle of the order hitter, but it's definitely better to have a 3-4-5 hitter that can be a good situational hitter (which was likely the overall gist) while having the standard qualities of a 3-4-5 hitter rather than one who doesn't.

But that's just it. He doesn't have the standard qualities of a 3-4-5 hitter. He has bad K/BB ratios and less power than would be expected for a middle of the order guy.

 

Also, there's a huge difference between situational hitting and laying down a bunt in the middle of the order.

[UK1679666180]

But that's just it. He doesn't have the standard qualities of a 3-4-5 hitter. He has bad K/BB ratios and less power than would be expected for a middle of the order guy.

 

Also, there's a huge difference between situational hitting and laying down a bunt in the middle of the order.

 

He can develop those qualities though, his ceiling is likely that of a middle of the order hitter.

 

Bunting is part of situational hitting, obviously it has a lesser chance of greater success like getting a base hit thru the right side when trying to advance a runner, but it's part of the definition of situation hitting.

 

There's also a huge difference between having the ability to bunt and the manager calling for a bunt at the wrong time, which falls more on the manager rather than the player. If you wished the player didn't have the ability to bunt b/c of the manager, the player isn't at fault.

[Mephistopheles]

They should not bend the facts. If I am not mistaken Colvin finished 2005 in a 4 for 39 slump, so "He started the year off hot, including a 19 game hitting streak and finished the year hitting safely in 32 of his final 40 games" might be true (I don't know if it is or isn't) but the slump must have been those final eight games, heh. Call it a shameless plug, but I like mine better.

I like the analysis of your posts, but you need an editor to correct for spelling and typographical errors. :P

 

I never claim to be a great writer or typer. Then again, I don't proof read any of that stuff and doing so would help quite a bit if I make as many mistakes as I do on my first draft of papers.

[RynoRules]

Sounds encouraging. If he continues to improve his patience at the plate he looks like a .375-.400 OBP guy. ETA 2009 or 2010?

 

I don't think he looks like that at all.

 

I don't see why he can't continue to develop patience at the plate along with a good approach. Those things can be taught and developed through hard work and good coaching. He may not have raw power, but I wouldn't mind another Grace-type if he is surrounded by power guys.

[nilodnayr]

Sounds encouraging. If he continues to improve his patience at the plate he looks like a .375-.400 OBP guy. ETA 2009 or 2010?

 

I don't think he looks like that at all.

 

I don't see why he can't continue to develop patience at the plate along with a good approach. Those things can be taught and developed through hard work and good coaching. He may not have raw power, but I wouldn't mind another Grace-type if he is surrounded by power guys.

 

He'll be a 375-400 OBP guy if he has a 325-350 BA. FYI, the cubs organization does not teach patience. I also worry about his transition from aluminium to wood.

 

My thoughts...

 

A doubles power, aggressive hitter who is decent at all facets of the game and can play multiple positions...can you say BENCH PLAYER.

 

One question...KC's article connotes that Colvin played CF in Boise, the other one LF. Any confirmation of either? (I trust KC).

[Mephistopheles]

He didn't play a lot out in center. I think he made 25 or so starts out there and about a third overall. I remember Wilken and other people in the organization believing that he could stick in center in some post-draft interviews.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And he'll probably get the chance to play more CF this year in Peoria since Camp (the other CF in Boise) is converting to the infield.

[A New Era]

How often do you have a guy that can hit in the middle of the lineup that can lay down a bunt when needed or isn't afraid to hit the ball to the opposite field to advance the runner.

Ugh. Just ugh. :x

 

Ryne Sanburg beleived in those sort of things. It doesn't mean it's a bad thing. It's only bad if Dusty is your manager and that is the ONLY things you can do. :)

[Mephistopheles]

Joe Morgan says a lot of things. Just because he's a hall of famer and was a great player, it doesn't mean he knows what he's talking about.

[biittner77]

The situational hitting aspect means that when he breaks in he could bat in the #2 spot until he develops enough power to warrant a middle of the order spot.

 

When I see a young player that doesn't draw a lot of walks I'm not really concerned until they reach high A. Players don't get drafted because they drew a lot of walks as amatuers. I'd attribute what looks like over agrressiveness to wanting to make an impression/ getting promoted.

 

What really matters is pitch recognition. Good hitters learn to take pitches that they can't handle. Players also learn that drawing walks helps their BA more than striking out. Since lumbering dinosaurs like Jim Hendry still believe BA is an important stat they start looking for ways to bring their BA up.

[CuseCubFan69]

I see more Jacque Jones in him than Luis Gonzalez.

 

Well Hendry did say he wanted a closer clubhouse.

[the splendid splinter]

I see more Jacque Jones in him than Luis Gonzalez.

 

Well Hendry did say he wanted a closer clubhouse.

 

Well the Big East might have been 5-0 which isnt bad but the state of Florida went 4-0 and has won 9 national tittles and played 17 times for the spot in the last 25 yrs.

[nilodnayr]

I see more Jacque Jones in him than Luis Gonzalez.

 

Well Hendry did say he wanted a closer clubhouse.

 

Well the Big East might have been 5-0 which isnt bad but the state of Florida went 4-0 and has won 9 national tittles and played 17 times for the spot in the last 25 yrs.

 

Is that a really confusing way of acknowledging cuse's funny gay joke?

[NorthsideAvenger]

I see more Jacque Jones in him than Luis Gonzalez.

 

Maybe build wise. I see Colvin as a Mark Kotsay type underrappreciated player. One of those players you know was good, but he puts up better numbers then you expect.

[harrdb00]

I don't see the comparison to Luis Gonzalez.

 

Have you seen him hit? I watched a few Clemson games and his swing and build are very similar to Luis. While I was watching, I was actually thinking how much he reminded me of Luis.

[craig]

Some Colvin thoughts:

1) he was 20 years old, away from home for the first time, rich for the first time, and stronger than when younger. Playing every day for the first time, doing baseball from January till September for the first time. Things could change.

2) On power: some have posted that he lacks LF power, somebody made Grace analogy, etc.. That may be true. But Colvin hit 11 HR's in 200-some AB for Boise, at age 20. Qualitative scouting reports suggest that he's got good bat speed (which is good for power), and that he's got a lot of room to get bigger and stronger. Lots of strong guys never hit a lot of HR's, and plenty of guys who aren't all that super strong hit quite a few. Hitting the ball solid is more important than being a physical hulk. Also, Wilken is a different personality than Fleita/Hendry, not nearly the gusher. So when he says that Colvin isn't really a power guy, that may mean nothing more than that he doesn't profile as a super hulk like Dopirak or Ryan Howard or Jim Thome, or have the distance mongo power of Ryan Harvey. But it doesn't necessarily mean thathe doesn't have the chance to perhaps hit 20-35 HR's a year. Who knows? I think it's very important that he does develop as a dude with at least reasonable HR output.

 

3) The HR's are big deal. If you K 20% of your AB, you can still hit .280 if you're getting a HR every 20 AB. But if you're K'ing 20% of your AB but you average 50 AB/HR, then hitting for a useful average becomes very difficult.

 

4) The two offensive profile things that seem established at this point is that he doesn't walk much, and he does K pretty much. We'll see how that goes. Some guys improve some in both areas, and in Tyler's case neither were so far off in his first season that modest incremental improvement might make these satisfactory. I also think there is justification for hope in these areas because he was quite streaky. (I know, that goes with hitting, but his seemed more so than usual.) Sometimes when guys improve, they learn to better sustain the good times and better minimize the pits. But my qualitative recall is that Colvin was very, very hot for a while, but that there were periods where he racked up tons of K's in modest time periods.

 

5) On bunting and "middle of order". Well duh, if he ends up being Barry Bonds, you won't want him bunting much. But we have no idea what he'll become, really. Yes, if his pitch selection improves, his power builds, and he's able to lock into the good colvin, he's got a chance to be a quality middle-of-order hitter. But it's also well possible that he'll never be a #2 or #7 hitter, or a utility player, or whatever. If he makes it at all, we can't assume that he won't be in a position where doing an occassional bunt might not be expected. (By bunt-loving big-league managers, even if you assume every manager who ever calls for a bunt is an idiot.)

 

6) CF vs LF. My expectation is LF. But I hope he plays mostly CF this season. Suppose, for example, that he ends up as a guy who K's 20%, 1HR/20AB, BABIP's at .300, and averages a below-average but not Neifi-esque 7 walks/100 AB. That would probably get you a guy with a .275 batting average, a .330-type OBP, and an OPS around .800. For a LF that's not bad, but not special. But for a CF, that would be very strong. If it turns out he could play a Mark Kotsay-caliber CF, that could be a high-value player. I doubt that. But I'd like to see.