Cubs Sign Marquis to 3/21

[Careless]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

[Bull]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

[Careless]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

what do your base them on? your crazy imagination, or his past performance?

[A New Era]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

[Careless]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

especially if it didn't happen yet

[A New Era]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

especially if it didn't happen yet

 

When did we start talking about Edmonds anyway? :oops:

[Careless]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

especially if it didn't happen yet

 

When did we start talking about Edmonds anyway? :oops:

From what I recall, you started quite soon after joining NSBB

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

especially if it didn't happen yet

 

When did we start talking about Edmonds anyway? :oops:

From what I recall, you started quite soon after joining NSBB

And from what I recall, he did this Saturday night:

We'll I'm leaving for a couple of months. ... Goodbye!!

[A New Era]

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

 

It doesn't matter what kind of makeup they wear.

especially if it didn't happen yet

 

When did we start talking about Edmonds anyway? :oops:

From what I recall, you started quite soon after joining NSBB

And from what I recall, he did this Saturday night:

We'll I'm leaving for a couple of months. ... Goodbye!!

 

Had to log in, I couldn't pass up the chance to bring up edmonds.

[C.C.]

Has Marquis actually signed yet?

[Soul]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

what do your base them on? your crazy imagination, or his past performance?

 

What if you're a scout, and a guy has great past numbers, but you go out and see him play somewhere and talk to him and it becomes painfully obvious the man has suffered a mental collapse?

 

Do you still sign him because of his past performance?

 

Or let's say there's a guy who has been pretty mediocre all his minor league career, and you visit him, ask him to get an eye test and he comes back with 20/200 vision? Do you write him off because of past performance?

[CubinNY]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

what do your base them on? your crazy imagination, or his past performance?

 

What if you're a scout, and a guy has great past numbers, but you go out and see him play somewhere and talk to him and it becomes painfully obvious the man has suffered a mental collapse?

 

Do you still sign him because of his past performance?

 

Or let's say there's a guy who has been pretty mediocre all his minor league career, and you visit him, ask him to get an eye test and he comes back with 20/200 vision? Do you write him off because of past performance?

 

Everything is relative.

 

A player needs to be compared relative to his age and level of compitition.

[Guest]

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

 

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances",

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml

 

he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers.

 

"Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables.

It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance.

There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance

 

upside?

 

tools?

 

makeup?

what do your base them on? your crazy imagination, or his past performance?

 

What if you're a scout, and a guy has great past numbers, but you go out and see him play somewhere and talk to him and it becomes painfully obvious the man has suffered a mental collapse?

 

Do you still sign him because of his past performance?

 

Or let's say there's a guy who has been pretty mediocre all his minor league career, and you visit him, ask him to get an eye test and he comes back with 20/200 vision? Do you write him off because of past performance?

Anyone who understands the best use of statistics knows that context is everything. If you are looking at a player whose context has changed (and scouting has to tell you this, which is why it is so important), then the past numbers aren't very good indicators.

 

If the context has remained relatively stable, there's no better way to predict future performance than past performance.

[CuseCubFan69]

Has Marquis actually signed yet?

 

I was wondering the same thing.

[C.C.]

Has Marquis actually signed yet?

 

I was wondering the same thing.

 

I thought he was supposed to be signed by Monday?

[Soul]

Has Marquis actually signed yet?

 

I was wondering the same thing.

 

I thought he was supposed to be signed by Monday?

 

I'm also suprised this thing hasn't been confirmed yet.

[davearm]

Seems pretty likely that the deal's all done, but won't be signed until Hendry can tweak the roster to free up space.

 

Same goes for Lilly and Ward, too. Neither is currently shown on the 40-man roster.

[C.C.]

Seems pretty likely that the deal's all done, but won't be signed until Hendry can tweak the roster to free up space.

 

Same goes for Lilly and Ward, too. Neither is currently shown on the 40-man roster.

 

Ahhh...That makes a little more sense.

[goonys evil twin]

Seems pretty likely that the deal's all done, but won't be signed until Hendry can tweak the roster to free up space.

 

Same goes for Lilly and Ward, too. Neither is currently shown on the 40-man roster.

 

By my count, they are at 39 with those 3 guys not yet counting. They could take 2 guys off the roster, but I think Hendry is hoping to make a trade to get the space.

[davearm]

Seems pretty likely that the deal's all done, but won't be signed until Hendry can tweak the roster to free up space.

 

Same goes for Lilly and Ward, too. Neither is currently shown on the 40-man roster.

 

By my count, they are at 39 with those 3 guys not yet counting. They could take 2 guys off the roster, but I think Hendry is hoping to make a trade to get the space.

I agree.

 

Unless there was something in the works, Hendry would just launch Coats and Reyes and be done with it.

[mg420]

Seems pretty likely that the deal's all done, but won't be signed until Hendry can tweak the roster to free up space.

 

Same goes for Lilly and Ward, too. Neither is currently shown on the 40-man roster.

 

By my count, they are at 39 with those 3 guys not yet counting. They could take 2 guys off the roster, but I think Hendry is hoping to make a trade to get the space.

if that true i would think jones & one of the lefties in the pen (ohman?) are the likely canidates to be dealt.

[Mizzou]

What are the chances of this deal being one gauranteed year with two option years? Probably slim to none, but it's just something that crossed my mind on the way home earlier.

[Mephistopheles]

sweet, 4.98 ERA zips projection for marquis. kinda sad that i am glad its under five though...

[cheapseats]

sweet, 4.98 ERA zips projection for marquis. kinda sad that i am glad its under five though...

 

And the Cubs already had 8 candidates for the back of the rotation with similar ZIPS projections:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/

[Soul]

sweet, 4.98 ERA zips projection for marquis. kinda sad that i am glad its under five though...

 

And the Cubs already had 8 candidates for the back of the rotation with similar ZIPS projections:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/

 

Do we have any figures that ZiPS is an accurate predictor?