A thought about Soriano: lineup

[Jazz]

Last year he hit 46 HR, good for 3rd in the NL, but batting leadoff for most of the year, he only drove in 95 runs. He also had a .560 SLG average in a pitcher's park. The issue I have with him batting leadoff for us is that all those HR's, and extra base hits would be wasted. I don't think Soriano's .350 (a career high) should warrant that leadoff spot, and would be more comfortable giving it to Theriot should we start him at 2B, at least on opening day. Right now, if what we had was our opening day lineup, I'd bat Soriano 2nd behind Theriot, and in front of lee. I'm still hoping one of Roberts or Drew is signed though. In that instance I'd bat them 2nd, with Soriano 3rd.

[Abe Frohman]

I'm not a big fan of hitting Soriano in the top 2 spots. He has too much power, and the Cubs had a glaring hole in the 5 spot (I think Lee should occupy that hole and Soriano in the 3 spot, until Lee is back to old form). Soriano is not an "On Base %" guy, which would be better suited at the top because it = more runs.

 

I think Soriano could work at leadoff (he could work anywhere in the lineup), but he would help the club if he were knocking in runs. I guess the scoop is that he doesn't hit well with RISP, and is more effective leading off - but I haven't seen the splits.

 

Regardless, this is a beautiful lineup IMO:

 

2B Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

CF Soriano

3B Ramirez

RF Jones

CA Barrett

SS Izturis

[PackLandVA]

Soriano's career numbers batting leadoff are quite a bit better all around than batting in the middle of the order.

[chuckywang]

Soriano at CF? Can he play that spot?

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm telling you guys, trick him into thinking he's the leadoff hitter:

 

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Jones

Pitcher

Izturis

Murton

DeRosa

 

BRILLIANT! :D

[PackLandVA]

I'm telling you guys, trick him into thinking he's the leadoff hitter.

 

Why trick him. His numbers batting leadoff are superior to anywhere else in the lineup (statistically speaking) over the course of his career.

[ConstableRabbit]

I'm not a big fan of hitting Soriano in the top 2 spots. He has too much power, and the Cubs had a glaring hole in the 5 spot (I think Lee should occupy that hole and Soriano in the 3 spot, until Lee is back to old form). Soriano is not an "On Base %" guy, which would be better suited at the top because it = more runs.

 

I think Soriano could work at leadoff (he could work anywhere in the lineup), but he would help the club if he were knocking in runs. I guess the scoop is that he doesn't hit well with RISP, and is more effective leading off - but I haven't seen the splits.

 

Regardless, this is a beautiful lineup IMO:

 

2B Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

CF Soriano

3B Ramirez

RF Jones

CA Barrett

SS Izturis

 

DeRosa on the bench?

[Diffusion]

Alfonso Soriano career splits...

 

Batting first -- .291/.340/.544 in 2227 PA

Anywhere else -- .267/.309/.473 in 1991 PA

[Tracer Bullet]

Alfonso Soriano career splits...

 

Batting first -- .291/.340/.544 in 2227 PA

Anywhere else -- .267/.309/.473 in 1991 PA

 

Weren't most of those ABs in the lead-off spot from last year, his career (and also walk) year? There were a lot of variables for him at play last year (new league, walk year, lead off, etc). Hard to say which was most important.

 

At any rate, we're paying him $17m, he can hit anywhere I darn well tell him to (or, more likely, anywhere Lou tells him to). This is how I'd set it up, though JH is likely to ditch Jones for a CF and DeRosa wasn't brought in to be a backup, but whatever:

 

Theriot 2B

Murton LF

Lee 1B

ARam 3B

Soriano RF

Barrett C

Jones CF

Izturis SS

 

I'd like to get rid of 7 & 8, but I don't know who we'll bring in for those spots now.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Alfonso Soriano career splits...

 

Batting first -- .291/.340/.544 in 2227 PA

Anywhere else -- .267/.309/.473 in 1991 PA

 

Weren't most of those ABs in the lead-off spot from last year, his career (and also walk) year? There were a lot of variables for him at play last year (new league, walk year, lead off, etc). Hard to say which was most important.

 

At any rate, we're paying him $17m, he can hit anywhere I darn well tell him to (or, more likely, anywhere Lou tells him to). This is how I'd set it up, though JH is likely to ditch Jones for a CF and DeRosa wasn't brought in to be a backup, but whatever:

 

Theriot 2B

Murton LF

Lee 1B

ARam 3B

Soriano RF

Barrett C

Jones CF

Izturis SS

 

I'd like to get rid of 7 & 8, but I don't know who we'll bring in for those spots now.

 

Sweet Lou has already stated that Soriano is going to bat leadoff in 2007. So, any discussion otherwise is pretty much a moot point.....FOR NOW.

[Guest]

Alfonso Soriano career splits...

 

Batting first -- .291/.340/.544 in 2227 PA

Anywhere else -- .267/.309/.473 in 1991 PA

 

Weren't most of those ABs in the lead-off spot from last year, his career (and also walk) year?

I'm pretty sure Soriano didn't get 1114+ PA last year. I'd have to check, though. ;)

 

Seriously, though, Soriano's bests seasons have tended to be ones in which he got significant time in the leadoff spot. I leave the conclusions concerning causality and/or coincidence up to you. (Alliteration not intended.)

[biittner77]

Last year he hit 46 HR, good for 3rd in the NL, but batting leadoff for most of the year, he only drove in 95 runs.

 

95 RBIs are good from any spot in the lineup

 

 

The issue I have with him batting leadoff for us is that all those HR's, and extra base hits would be wasted

 

There's no such thing. IF the Cubs have good 7&8 hitters Soriano will get plenty of chances to score runs. More extra base hits means less need to risk stealing bases. It also means less inclination to have #2 hitter bunt.

[back2backjax]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

[goonys evil twin]

Last year he hit 46 HR, good for 3rd in the NL, but batting leadoff for most of the year, he only drove in 95 runs.

 

95 RBIs are good from any spot in the lineup

 

I completely disagree. 95 RBI from the 3/4/5 spot is below average. Most teams get much more than that from those spots in the order, and most of the guys who hit in those spots play everyday, or close to it.

[goonys evil twin]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Why would you even think about Izturis leading off? He's a terrible option for that spot. Hopefully he's not even on the team next year. BUt if he does play, he should never be above the 8 spot.

[mul21]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS career .293 (or so) OBP

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Apparently someone's been Dusty-ized!!!!!!

[biittner77]

Last year he hit 46 HR, good for 3rd in the NL, but batting leadoff for most of the year, he only drove in 95 runs.

 

95 RBIs are good from any spot in the lineup

 

I completely disagree. 95 RBI from the 3/4/5 spot is below average. Most teams get much more than that from those spots in the order, and most of the guys who hit in those spots play everyday, or close to it.

 

I'll give you the 3/4 hitters but I'd bet most #5 hitters don't drive in 95 RBIs.

[goonys evil twin]

Last year he hit 46 HR, good for 3rd in the NL, but batting leadoff for most of the year, he only drove in 95 runs.

 

95 RBIs are good from any spot in the lineup

 

I completely disagree. 95 RBI from the 3/4/5 spot is below average. Most teams get much more than that from those spots in the order, and most of the guys who hit in those spots play everyday, or close to it.

 

I'll give you the 3/4 hitters but I'd bet most #5 hitters don't drive in 95 RBIs.

 

In the NL, 10 teams got more than 95 from the 5 spot. The 8/9 spots are 109/107. Assuming your 5th hitter plays 150 games, that's 92.6% of games, which equates to 99 of 108 RBI. That right there is an average 5 hitter, I'd say. Most true 5 hitters should play more than 150 games, and they should equate for a larger percentage of their team's RBI in that spot than their replacement.

 

95 is mediocre at best, for a middle of the order hitter. From a 6 hitter you are talking above average.

 

From a leadoff hitter, it's huge.

[Bergy92]

I'm not a big fan of hitting Soriano in the top 2 spots. He has too much power, and the Cubs had a glaring hole in the 5 spot (I think Lee should occupy that hole and Soriano in the 3 spot, until Lee is back to old form). Soriano is not an "On Base %" guy, which would be better suited at the top because it = more runs.

 

I think Soriano could work at leadoff (he could work anywhere in the lineup), but he would help the club if he were knocking in runs. I guess the scoop is that he doesn't hit well with RISP, and is more effective leading off - but I haven't seen the splits.

 

Regardless, this is a beautiful lineup IMO:

 

2B Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

CF Soriano

3B Ramirez

RF Jones

CA Barrett

SS Izturis

 

DeRosa on the bench?

 

Listen, I do like Theriot as well, but let's face it. DeRosa did not get the big bucks to be the bench back up. He will be the starter with Theriot as back up. Argue good or bad, doesn't matter.

 

And I am pretty certain that Soriano is not going to bat in the middle of the order - you can dream all you want, but he will be at the top.

[biittner77]

Assuming your 5th hitter plays 150 games, that's 92.6% of games

 

How many of those teams had a regular #5 hitter? It seems to me that there's a difference bewteen the #5 spot in the order vs player X who drove in 95+ runs.

 

That being said, I can't help thinking that this discussion is pointless in the context of the original post ie. that 95 rbi out of the leadoff spot is very good.

[David]

I don't see the big fuss about Soriano in the leadoff spot anyway. As far as I know, most studies on lineup construction have shown that the order doesn't matter all that much, anyways.

 

Ideally, conventional wisdom aside, you'd want your best hitters at the top and worst at the bottom, mainly because the top of the order gets more at bats, not because of any preconceived notion about what type of hitter goes where in the lineup.

 

Soriano might not be our best hitter, but he's one of the top 3, so him getting all those at bats isn't going to hurt us. Personally, I think the worries about wasting his talents in the leadoff spot are much ado about nothing. In a perfect world, sure, it'd be nice to have him in the middle of the order, but I don't think it'll amount to a very big difference in total runs scored.

 

What we need to worry about is having good hitters in as many lineup spots as possible.

[back2backjax]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS career .293 (or so) OBP

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Apparently someone's been Dusty-ized!!!!!!

 

in 2004, CI hit .288 with a .330 OBP and 25 steals before getting hurt. i think he's the most logical candidate to start the season in the leadoff spot (if it's not going to be fonzie), but if he falters then you have to consider other options. i'm not at all advocating putting him there and leaving him no matter how he performs (which is what dusty would have done). i only like the idea of him there because of the speed he would provide leading off.

[David]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS career .293 (or so) OBP

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Apparently someone's been Dusty-ized!!!!!!

 

in 2004, CI hit .288 with a .330 OBP and 25 steals before getting hurt. i think he's the most logical candidate to start the season in the leadoff spot (if it's not going to be fonzie), but if he falters then you have to consider other options. i'm not at all advocating putting him there and leaving him no matter how he performs (which is what dusty would have done). i only like the idea of him there because of the speed he would provide leading off.

 

Speed isn't really an important factor when considering who should leadoff (or who should bat anywhere, really). Not by a longshot.

[fromthestretch]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS career .293 (or so) OBP

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Apparently someone's been Dusty-ized!!!!!!

 

in 2004, CI hit .288 with a .330 OBP and 25 steals before getting hurt. i think he's the most logical candidate to start the season in the leadoff spot (if it's not going to be fonzie), but if he falters then you have to consider other options. i'm not at all advocating putting him there and leaving him no matter how he performs (which is what dusty would have done). i only like the idea of him there because of the speed he would provide leading off.

 

A .330 OBP doesn't make him a logical candidate to leadoff. If he's batting any higher than eighth, I'd be upset. His speed does no good at the top of the order if he isn't on base enough to use it. If Soriano isn't leading off, I'd put Murton up there. If Soriano is leading off, I'd bat Murton second.

[CubColtPacer]

no matter who else joins the roster, lee should remain in the 3 hole. he's a power AND average guy while soriano is mostly a power guy. my lineup goes like this (assuming no more hitters are signed):

 

1. Izturis - SS career .293 (or so) OBP

2. DeRosa - 2B

3. Lee - 1B

4. Soriano - CF

5. Ramirez - 3B

6. Jones - RF

7. Barrett - C

8. Murton - LF

 

i would not argue swapping murton and derosa, or ramirez and soriano. i like soriano in front of ramirez because his speed could give ramirez more RBI opportunities by getting into scoring position with 2 outs or scoring on a double from first. the same can't be said about ramirez being on ahead of soriano.

 

the scary thing about this lineup is how much progress murton might make. it's easy to overlook his .290 avg in his first full season because the team was so bad, but what if he gets it up around .315 - .326? wow.

 

Apparently someone's been Dusty-ized!!!!!!

 

in 2004, CI hit .288 with a .330 OBP and 25 steals before getting hurt. i think he's the most logical candidate to start the season in the leadoff spot (if it's not going to be fonzie), but if he falters then you have to consider other options. i'm not at all advocating putting him there and leaving him no matter how he performs (which is what dusty would have done). i only like the idea of him there because of the speed he would provide leading off.

 

A .330 OBP doesn't make him a logical candidate to leadoff. If he's batting any higher than eighth, I'd be upset. His speed does no good at the top of the order if he isn't on base enough to use it. If Soriano isn't leading off, I'd put Murton up there. If Soriano is leading off, I'd bat Murton second.

 

Agreed. Even for those who are ok with Izturis on the team, it is OK because of his defense, not his offense. We don't know how much under average to the average shortstop he will be, but history shows us that his biggest upside is probably an average offensive shortstop. To maximize his value for the team, you'd then need to try to put him in as many situations as possible to do well what he does well (defense at shortstop) and to try to minimize his offensive drain. For him to bat leadoff just makes that weakness grow because a team's worst hitter is getting the most chances at the plate.