Durham seeks 9 millon dollar?

[Neuby]

The Giants haven't closed the door on Durham, who is seeking a contract in the two-year, $18 million range. Agent Ed Setlik said he remains in contact with Giants officials, along with a handful of other clubs

 

WoW I had listed him as a guy that Hendry should have went after instead of Derosa but now that I see he wants two years and 9 million a season I think Hendrys deal for Derosa keeps looking OK. Not Terrible.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

[rawaction]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

[Abe Frohman]

I would much rather the Cubs spent $18million on Durham for 2 years than $13million on Derosa for 3.

[Wheelimus]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

 

While you are probably right, it's mildly comforting that the above comparison isn't quite as black and white as it normally is. Since DeRosa (supposadly) made big time changes to his approach in Texas. I've even seen it said that (supposadly) watching him and Michael Young swing the bat looks like the same person. Not sure I buy that, but it excites me to see him play and give him a chance.

[Mark Priors Calves]

I'd be curious to see if Durham would lower his salary demands for a 3rd year on the deal.

[Backtobanks]

The Giants haven't closed the door on Durham, who is seeking a contract in the two-year, $18 million range. Agent Ed Setlik said he remains in contact with Giants officials, along with a handful of other clubs

 

WoW I had listed him as a guy that Hendry should have went after instead of Derosa but now that I see he wants two years and 9 million a season I think Hendrys deal for Derosa keeps looking OK. Not Terrible.

 

Looking at the early market returns, he would be crazy not to ask for $18 million over 2 years. He probably won't get it, but he can ask.

[jjgman21]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

 

the numbers appear correct, but the addition's a little off. that's a 62 point different in OPS. my thoughts on the matter is Durham had his swan song last year and will probably be only slightly better that DeRosa if he's better at all. this is coming from someone who panned the DeRosa trade.

 

 

while it its possible Durham would be worth the extra 5M, more than likely he won't be, and that 5M is better served someplace else.

[rawaction]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

 

the numbers appear correct, but the addition's a little off. that's a 62 point different in OPS. my thoughts on the matter is Durham had his swan song last year and will probably be only slightly better that DeRosa if he's better at all. this is coming from someone who panned the DeRosa trade.

 

 

while it its possible Durham would be worth the extra 5M, more than likely he won't be, and that 5M is better served someplace else.

 

Ha. Yeah, my math skills suck before 9am. Durham's 2006 was in line with his previous 3 seasons, except for the huge power surge. Even if you don't expect that to repeat, I think Durham is as close to a lock to put up his career numbers as it gets. Derosa has no history to assume he will even come close to repeating his 2006 numbers.

[Elrhino]

I'd be curious to see if Durham would lower his salary demands for a 3rd year on the deal.

 

At 35 years of age, there is no way I would give him 3 years ... discount price or not. And at that age, I don't think he's a lock to put up his typical career numbers. No more than I thought Brian Giles was a lock last offseason when people wanted to throw $10 million/per at him.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Ray's also starting to develop a bit of a tendency for injury.

[jjgman21]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

 

the numbers appear correct, but the addition's a little off. that's a 62 point different in OPS. my thoughts on the matter is Durham had his swan song last year and will probably be only slightly better that DeRosa if he's better at all. this is coming from someone who panned the DeRosa trade.

 

 

while it its possible Durham would be worth the extra 5M, more than likely he won't be, and that 5M is better served someplace else.

 

Ha. Yeah, my math skills suck before 9am. Durham's 2006 was in line with his previous 3 seasons, except for the huge power surge. Even if you don't expect that to repeat, I think Durham is as close to a lock to put up his career numbers as it gets. Derosa has no history to assume he will even come close to repeating his 2006 numbers.

 

sorry, but 35 year old secondbasemen with consistent and repeated injury histories are about as far from locks to put up their career numbers as anybody.

 

but let's assume he does. he's still only an 800 ops player. so let's assume DeRosa also put up his career 735 (which probably isn't fair, but for the sake of argument). is that 65 or so points worth 5M?

 

maybe out of a left fielder or centerfielder, but considering they will play at a position where defense is much more imporant, and I hear DeRosa is very good, an I know Durham has always been average and is now slow and old and making 100+ fewer plays in a year than he did when he was a young man, I would give that a resounding no, he's not worth that 5M.

[baseball7897]

Ray's also starting to develop a bit of a tendency for injury.

 

He would be a perfect fit on the Cubs then.

[Guest]

263 and .397 from July 1 to season's end. that would be DeRosa's obp and slp. now, I'm not a big fan of half-season statistics, but that does tell me that his alleged chance in approach didn't work after the first of July. That, in turn, tells me that Mark is very likely to revert to his career numbers this year.

[Uber]

Maybe it's the Braves fan in me, but I'll take DeRosa plz.

[jjgman21]

263 and .397 from July 1 to season's end. that would be DeRosa's obp and slp. now, I'm not a big fan of half-season statistics, but that does tell me that his alleged chance in approach didn't work after the first of July. That, in turn, tells me that Mark is very likely to revert to his career numbers this year.

 

again, I'm not a DeRosa advocate, but if you play this game, you also have to play that game with Durham. you can't say "look at what Ray did last year and over the course of his career" then compare it to doomsday predictions of DeRosa.

 

I hear what you are saying with this point, but you can't throw his first half out the window either. you have to come to likely outcomes to make this kind of comparison. I think it likely that DeRosa is probably slightly improved with experience and adjustments and will probably put up an OPS around .750-760 over the next couple years with great defense (from what I hear). I also think it likely that Durham will go into a decline from his career numbers and likely be around .775-.785, with old man defense out of a middle infield position.

 

not worth 5M.

 

 

edit - another way to look at breaking DeRosa's season down is this. "until the end of September his OPS was .871. his numbers were skewed by an end of the season slump." I don't buy it, but I don't think people should take your breakdown and conclusion at face value either.

Edited November 18, 2006 by jjgman21

[rawaction]

I'm the first to say Hendry overpays, but really is the difference in production between Derosa and Durham woth the extra $5 mill a year??

 

Honestly? It is very possible that Durham could be 5M better than Derosa.

 

Durham's career #s .281/.354/.443 106 OPS+

Derosa's career #'s .273/.331/.404 90 OPS+

 

That's and 80 point difference in OPS for their career. Even if you think Derosa will continue to put up close to his Texas numbers, they are barely (16 points) better than Durham's average season, which Durham himself has surpassed in all but 1 of his last 8 seasons.

 

the numbers appear correct, but the addition's a little off. that's a 62 point different in OPS. my thoughts on the matter is Durham had his swan song last year and will probably be only slightly better that DeRosa if he's better at all. this is coming from someone who panned the DeRosa trade.

 

 

while it its possible Durham would be worth the extra 5M, more than likely he won't be, and that 5M is better served someplace else.

 

Ha. Yeah, my math skills suck before 9am. Durham's 2006 was in line with his previous 3 seasons, except for the huge power surge. Even if you don't expect that to repeat, I think Durham is as close to a lock to put up his career numbers as it gets. Derosa has no history to assume he will even come close to repeating his 2006 numbers.

 

sorry, but 35 year old secondbasemen with consistent and repeated injury histories are about as far from locks to put up their career numbers as anybody.

 

but let's assume he does. he's still only an 800 ops player. so let's assume DeRosa also put up his career 735 (which probably isn't fair, but for the sake of argument). is that 65 or so points worth 5M?

 

maybe out of a left fielder or centerfielder, but considering they will play at a position where defense is much more imporant, and I hear DeRosa is very good, an I know Durham has always been average and is now slow and old and making 100+ fewer plays in a year than he did when he was a young man, I would give that a resounding no, he's not worth that 5M.

 

I ask this honestly, but what's the difference between Durham 34 and 35? People were saying the same thing before 2006, at age 34. His game isn't as built on speed as it used to be. He has been on base at least 35.6% of the time in each of the last 5 years. He is a career .800 OPS hitter, but he's been better than that in 7 of the last 8 years....including .885 last year. I will grant you that 2006 was probably an anomaly power-wise, but he would have to take a huge and fast decline to be around the .775-.785 OPS area next year. I'd take the gamble by the end of the 2 year contract, he would still be above that range you mentioned, considering he has been well above that most of his career.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sounds like my 2/17 suggestion(7/8/Team option 8 w/ 2 mil buyout) would've done it.

[jjgman21]

 

I ask this honestly, but what's the difference between Durham 34 and 35? People were saying the same thing before 2006, at age 34. His game isn't as built on speed as it used to be. He has been on base at least 35.6% of the time in each of the last 5 years. He is a career .800 OPS hitter, but he's been better than that in 7 of the last 8 years....including .885 last year. I will grant you that 2006 was probably an anomaly power-wise, but he would have to take a huge and fast decline to be around the .775-.785 OPS area next year. I'd take the gamble by the end of the 2 year contract, he would still be above that range you mentioned, considering he has been well above that most of his career.

 

the difference is the same as any player at that age. what's the difference between Sosa 34 and 35? about 65 points in OPS. what's the difference between Edmonds 34 and 35? about 150 points in OPS. you look at the similar players on baseballreference for Durham, and he's at or past the age where all of them had a significant decline.

 

he would not have to have a huge and fast decline to get to those numbers, and I think you know that to be true. you keep saying "7 of 8 years he was above his career average" (actually you would be better served by pointing it's been 8 of 9) so obviously you looked at the numbers, but you conveniently fail to point out that in most of those season we was only a handful of ops points above (818, 811, 808, 803, 824, 807) his career average. a 10 point drop in obp combined with a 20 drop in slg off of those types of numbers is very likely at his age.

 

Durham does get on base nearly 36% of the time. DeRosa gets on roughly 33% of the time. over the course of a 700 PA season, thats 21 additional times on base. figure the runner scores 40% of those times. are those 8.5 additional runs really worth 5M?