New NSBB Article on Ramirez

[rawaction]

Okay, my second article of the day is now up for your perusal. :D

 

Who do you suggest if the Cubs go bargain shopping at SP? Only Wolf seems like an interesting option to me.

 

As for the offense, I'd still go after Drew or Soriano to play CF. And Durham to play 2B.

 

To free up extra money, if needed, I'd probably look to trade Eyre and Dempster (along with Izturis). I actually do think that Demp can be a solid closer, with regular use again, despite his walk rate. Howry can close. Wood and Wuertz could set up. Ohman is better at Eyre's job than Eyre.

[Guest]

Okay, my second article of the day is now up for your perusal. :D

 

Who do you suggest if the Cubs go bargain shopping at SP? Only Wolf seems like an interesting option to me.

 

As for the offense, I'd still go after Drew or Soriano to play CF. And Durham to play 2B.

 

To free up extra money, if needed, I'd probably look to trade Eyre and Dempster (along with Izturis). I actually do think that Demp can be a solid closer, with regular use again, despite his walk rate. Howry can close. Wood and Wuertz could set up. Ohman is better at Eyre's job than Eyre.

I remember having a fit last winter when we signed Eyre and Howry (I realize wasn't alone). I got into an argument with someone and made the bold claim that Wuertz & Ohman could very well outperform Howry & Eyre. I got beat upon for saying it from a variety of people, too.

 

Anyway...

 

I have nothing against trading Eyre, Dempster & Izzy to free up around $12M extra. At that point, we could realistically have enough money to add three big money players.

 

I haven't really looked into it enough to give an informed opinion on the second / third tier of starters. Hopefully the Cubs would have scouted a couple guys that should be able to provide health & league average performance.

 

Durham at 2B concerns me. His games played over the past four years has been atrocious.

[rawaction]

Okay, my second article of the day is now up for your perusal. :D

 

Who do you suggest if the Cubs go bargain shopping at SP? Only Wolf seems like an interesting option to me.

 

As for the offense, I'd still go after Drew or Soriano to play CF. And Durham to play 2B.

 

To free up extra money, if needed, I'd probably look to trade Eyre and Dempster (along with Izturis). I actually do think that Demp can be a solid closer, with regular use again, despite his walk rate. Howry can close. Wood and Wuertz could set up. Ohman is better at Eyre's job than Eyre.

I remember having a fit last winter when we signed Eyre and Howry (I realize wasn't alone). I got into an argument with someone and made the bold claim that Wuertz & Ohman could very well outperform Howry & Eyre. I got beat upon for saying it from a variety of people, too.

 

Anyway...

 

I have nothing against trading Eyre, Dempster & Izzy to free up around $12M extra. At that point, we could realistically have enough money to add three big money players.

 

I haven't really looked into it enough to give an informed opinion on the second / third tier of starters. Hopefully the Cubs would have scouted a couple guys that should be able to provide health & league average performance.

 

Durham at 2B concerns me. His games played over the past four years has been atrocious.

 

He has played over 135 in the last 2 though, and I don't believe he was DL'd this year even with only 137 games played. Even if he plays the 120 or so games like he did in 03 and 04, the Cubs have the depth at 2B. Between Theriot, Cedeno, and Eric Patterson, the Cubs have the ability to NOT miss Durham too much if he can't play 150. If he is willing to sign for 2 years and for less than the 7M he made last year, I'd gladly take the near lock for a .360 OBP and take my chances.

 

BTW, I wanted one of the 2 relievers (Eyre/Howry), but not both.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Hey Tim, ARam did get a partial NTC per Kaplan.

 

What that means specifically, I don't know, but at least it's not a full NTC (or a fricking opt out clause).

[rawaction]

Hey Tim, ARam did get a partial NTC per Kaplan.

 

What that means specifically, I don't know, but at least it's not a full NTC (or a fricking opt out clause).

 

I probably wouldn't mind an opt out clause in this current deal. Having an opt-out at 31 is a lot different from having one at 28.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Hey Tim, ARam did get a partial NTC per Kaplan.

 

What that means specifically, I don't know, but at least it's not a full NTC (or a fricking opt out clause).

 

I probably wouldn't mind an opt out clause in this current deal. Having an opt-out at 31 is a lot different from having one at 28.

 

I'd rather have team options or mutual options. Opt out clauses give the team no power.

 

Opt out clauses also destroy trade value.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I like the second article, Tim.

[illiniguy]

Sorry for the multiple posts here...

 

One more thing on Manny. Because of his work ethic, attitude and the negatives associated with those, any team in baseball could have had him for free when the Red Sox exposed him to unconditional waivers. Nobody took him.

 

As good as ARam is, he's not in Manny's league. The fact that nobody wanted Manny's deal with fewer years left than ARam is going to get should say something.

 

I'm not comparing Aram to Manny, per se. I'm just giving an example of a guy I considered to have comparable issues as Aram, yet has continued to stay productive in his mid 30's.

 

Mike Lowell isn't enough of a comparison for me to label Aramis as a lock to drop offensive production significantly. Just as Mike Lowell's recovery from cancer isn't a lock that all baseball players can lead a productive baseball career after a major recovery from cancer.

Lowell is just one example. There are plenty out there of unathletic guys that fell off a performance cliff shortly after turning 30.

There are also some who haven't too. Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas.. ok so I can think of two. Unless I can convince you to count Juan Gonzalez.

[Guest]

Sorry for the multiple posts here...

 

One more thing on Manny. Because of his work ethic, attitude and the negatives associated with those, any team in baseball could have had him for free when the Red Sox exposed him to unconditional waivers. Nobody took him.

 

As good as ARam is, he's not in Manny's league. The fact that nobody wanted Manny's deal with fewer years left than ARam is going to get should say something.

 

I'm not comparing Aram to Manny, per se. I'm just giving an example of a guy I considered to have comparable issues as Aram, yet has continued to stay productive in his mid 30's.

 

Mike Lowell isn't enough of a comparison for me to label Aramis as a lock to drop offensive production significantly. Just as Mike Lowell's recovery from cancer isn't a lock that all baseball players can lead a productive baseball career after a major recovery from cancer.

Lowell is just one example. There are plenty out there of unathletic guys that fell off a performance cliff shortly after turning 30.

There are also some who haven't too. Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas.. ok so I can think of two. Unless I can convince you to count Juan Gonzalez.

lol - I believe Juan would count on my tally sheet.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think Lowell is a great comparison for Ramirez. Look at Lowell's age 26-28 seasons. He was a little above average in the OPS+ category. He's not much of a strong guy, although he had his moments. He peaked late, at 29, but he started coming down the next year. He's also a guy who battled cancer, which can have longterm ramifications. I think Lowell's lack of athleticism is quite different from Ramirez's as well. Aramis is a strong bulky guy. He might carry an extra pound or ten, but he's a bull. Lowell is a lanky soft guy.

[frostwyrm]

I have to agree that Aramis is likely to have phsyical issues as he ages. I just don't like his body type at all. He was supposed to have worked out hard in the offseason, but a visual inspection of his physique doesn't reveal any difference to me. His body still has the same general softness in appearance. Obviously he must have done something right because he was able to stay healthy this year, but I would have felt a lot better about him if looked more buff or moved better. In motion he still looks heavy-footed, stiff, and generally unathletic. I think he'll probably be a fine 3B for 2-3 more years but I don't expect him to age well.

[CubinNY]

I have to agree that Aramis is likely to have phsyical issues as he ages. I just don't like his body type at all. He was supposed to have worked out hard in the offseason, but a visual inspection of his physique doesn't reveal any difference to me. His body still has the same general softness in appearance. Obviously he must have done something right because he was able to stay healthy this year, but I would have felt a lot better about him if looked more buff or moved better. In motion he still looks heavy-footed, stiff, and generally unathletic. I think he'll probably be a fine 3B for 2-3 more years but I don't expect him to age well.

 

Did you see him in person or on TV?

 

Aramis was much thinner this year compared to previous years.

[goonys evil twin]

I believe he'll decline in his 30's as well. But as Tim pointed out, a lack of planning years ago has led the Cubs to be forced into taking that risk. I expect Ramirez to be very productive for another 3 years or so, and the cost of that productivity is probably going to be overpaying for it in the latter years. But every team ends up overpaying towards the end of older guy's contracts. That's why you need a bunch of under 30 players, and why you need to plan in advance to take advantage of guys' underpaid years.

 

If you want to win you can't pass on every player who is unlikely to live up to his contract down the road. Beane is really the only guy who has gotten away with that approach. The Cubs don't have the luxury of letting guys walk away simply because they feel the player won't be all that good 3-4 years from now. Ideally you could do that, but it's just not possible, given the state of the franchise.