Ted Lilly = This Year's Bronson Arroyo?

[TruffleShuffle]

oops Edited October 26, 2006 by TruffleShuffle

[TruffleShuffle]

"Could have" may not be good enough, but with the Cubs history of "wooing FAs", that may have to be good enough. Besides, I actually the young arms the Cubs have, and like to see them further developed. All I know is that when "big name FA' put on a Cubs uniforms, they go to crap..ie Hundley/Alou. So, pardon me, if I rather give the youngsters a chance, over veterans.

 

OK, but the Cubs are going to stay bad that way.

 

Just because the Cubs sign "big name FA" doesn't mean they're the RIGHT free agents. Something to keep in mind with Alou's rough start is the transition players make coming to Wrigley with all the home games - but all in all, I liked the Moises years (not the throwing or baserunning, but those are small complaints).

 

Yeah, but go with the young guys? That's pretty much how it turned out last year, and the Cubs were brutally bad. Teams in baseball strengthen themselves through free agency, trades, and their farm system. You need to be active in free agency to field a good time, as long as you make the right move rather than get mediocre has-beens like Steve Buechele. Sure, you can put in Sean Marshall rather than Ted Lilly, stick with Ronny Cedeno at second base, etc. But there are plenty of Kevin Ories, Gary Scotts, Mike Harkeys and Todd Wellemeyers that turn out to be nowhere close to major league average.

 

You have to USE the right young players, not just ANY young players. The Marlins plan worked semi-decently, because they had kids like Willigham/Uggla/Ramirez/Jacobs, etc, that were talented enough to play.

 

If the Cubs improve themselves through FA, fine, but the Cubs don't have a good history of doing that. The Cubs have been burned through FA(Dawson was the last FA who wasn't a bust), hence the reason why they are better through the trades (Sandberg/Sosa/Lee/ARam/Sutcliffe). So if the Cubs are going to improve they have to look at all avenues, and use a combination of them all.

 

 

Yeah well, therein lies the problem. The Marlins went with the kids and did fine because they had good minor leaguers. The Cubs don't, especially position prospects. So, they have to sign free agents to fill the holes that the minor leagues can't adequately fill.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Yeah well, therein lies the problem. The Marlins went with the kids and did fine because they had good minor leaguers. The Cubs don't, especially position prospects. So, they have to sign free agents to fill the holes that the minor leagues can't adequately fill.

 

And the Cubs can't seem to figure out what FA can help them (Beltran, Vlad?), and which FA can't help them as much (Rusch/Perez/Jones). Apparently, in the Cubs eyes, EVERY player is on the same level.

[VanceJergins]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

 

co-sign

 

adding a 3rd signature. Finally a rotation that doesn't depend on Prior.

8)

 

So you hate any rotation that has Prior as the 5th starter, but a rotation with "5th starter" at the 5 spot works for you? And hoping Prior can be the 5th starter is not depending on him in any crucial way. Penciling him in at the 5 spot could give you the best 5 pitcher in baseball, or you could have to replace him with someone like Marshall or Mateo and get league-average 5th starter quality.

[kroth1342]

Looks like the Cubs and I might be on the same page, don't know if that's good or bad:

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-061104rogers,1,630308.column?coll=cs-home-headlines

 

The Blue Jays are making a last-ditch effort to sign left-hander Ted Lilly, who figures to be pursued by the Cubs and several other teams if he isn't sign during the exclusive negotiating window that ends next Saturday

[mg420]

i was interested in seeing the cubs get lilly last year before he went to the jays. the only issue with him is that i believe he give up a lot of fly balls. he does have good stuff though and i cant remember the last time the cusb had 2 qualty lefties in the starting rotation. now the schmidt seems to be out of the picture and zito was never in the picture, lilly might not be a bad choice (depending on what kind of $ he is looking for).

[CuseCubFan69]

i was interested in seeing the cubs get lilly last year before he went to the jays. the only issue with him is that i believe he give up a lot of fly balls. he does have good stuff though and i cant remember the last time the cusb had 2 qualty lefties in the starting rotation. now the schmidt seems to be out of the picture and zito was never in the picture, lilly might not be a bad choice (depending on what kind of $ he is looking for).

 

Just pitch him when the wind is blowing in then!

[UK1679666180]

If it was one or the other, I'd rather have Padilla over Lilly.

[kroth1342]

If it was one or the other, I'd rather have Padilla over Lilly.

 

Why is this?

[UK1679666180]

More than likely he'll be cheaper, 18 months younger, similar production through careers, and has better stuff.

[kroth1342]

More than likely he'll be cheaper, 18 months younger, similar production through careers, and has better stuff.

 

2006 salaries -

Padilla: $4.41 m

Lilly: $4.02 m

 

Career translated ERAs -

Padilla: 3.98

Lilly: 3.96

 

Career STUFF rating -

Padilla: 9

Lilly: 13

 

While their ERA output is similar, Lilly puts up better "stuff" at similar or lower cost. Granted he is 2 years older than Padilla, Lilly has made 30 or more starts in 3 out of the last 4 years, while Padilla has done it only in 2 out of the last 4 (03 and 06). While I see your views, I'm still higher on Lilly.

[UK1679666180]

Both are FAs, so previous salaries dictate little as far as future contracts. I think Lilly will get more per year than Padilla b/c once Daisuke, Zito, and Schmidt all sign, I think Lilly will be in demand moreso than Padilla and rec. a higher salary.

 

As far as stuff, despite that awkward BP stat, I'd rate Padilla's FB and change better, while his slider is just as good as Lilly's curve. The problem with Padilla has been the ability to maintain it. Given that Lilly will probably get a couple mil more per year, IMO, Padilla will be worth more.

[Rob]

I don't think anybody here is going to debate that Lilly and Padilla aren't extremely close in actual value to a team.

 

A quarter of a million extra floating to either one's contract would make that one less valuable, so close is their production.

 

All things (read: contracts) being equal, I would rather have Lilly. But if I could get Padilla for a $250,000 less, I'd rather do that.

 

Then again, I personally believe if their contracts go above 6 mil per, they aren't worth acquiring.

[Guest]

Lilly has a career 7.68 k/9 to Padilla's 6.29.

 

I don't see any reasonable argument that Padilla has better stuff. If he does, he doesn't use it effectively rendering his stuff meaningless. Considering that Lilly has spent almost his entire career in the AL, I think he is a better pitcher. I also am not sure how you arbitrarily determined Lilly would get $2 million more per year. Personally, I want nothing to do with Padilla.

[nilodnayr]

Both are FAs, so previous salaries dictate little as far as future contracts. I think Lilly will get more per year than Padilla b/c once Daisuke, Zito, and Schmidt all sign, I think Lilly will be in demand moreso than Padilla and rec. a higher salary.

 

As far as stuff, despite that awkward BP stat, I'd rate Padilla's FB and change better, while his slider is just as good as Lilly's curve. The problem with Padilla has been the ability to maintain it. Given that Lilly will probably get a couple mil more per year, IMO, Padilla will be worth more.

 

Why do you think Lilly will get more $? Old school GMs amiring his 'stuff'? If thats true, then I'd much prefer Padilla. People are talking here like Lilly is a big improvement. His BBs and HRs really scare me. Hes a very typical cubs pitcher (minus the unhealthiness). He has great 'stuff', high Ks, but gets in big trouble by walking a bunch of guys and giving up HRs. Padilla is much better at keeping guys off the basepaths and the ball in the park.

[UK1679666180]

Lilly has a career 7.68 k/9 to Padilla's 6.29.

 

I don't see any reasonable argument that Padilla has better stuff. If he does, he doesn't use it effectively rendering his stuff meaningless. Considering that Lilly has spent almost his entire career in the AL, I think he is a better pitcher. I also am not sure how you arbitrarily determined Lilly would get $2 million more per year. Personally, I want nothing to do with Padilla.

 

Sure he does, he has better stuff. Same reason that Marmol has better stuff than Hill, yet their K ratios are on opposite sides of the spectrum.

 

Stuff isn't all about Ks, Brandon Webb has better stuff than each of them, yet his K ratio translates to about 6.7.

 

Both pitchers have gone through odd increases and decreases of velo during their career.

 

I like Padilla more than Lilly, but at that same token, GMs will value Lilly more b/c he is a lefty and pitched in that "difficult" AL east and whatever value they put on facing the Yankees and Red Sox 4-8 times a year with Toronto.

 

I'm more than willing to bet that Padilla will get less than Lilly.

[kroth1342]

Lilly has a career 7.68 k/9 to Padilla's 6.29.

 

I don't see any reasonable argument that Padilla has better stuff. If he does, he doesn't use it effectively rendering his stuff meaningless. Considering that Lilly has spent almost his entire career in the AL, I think he is a better pitcher. I also am not sure how you arbitrarily determined Lilly would get $2 million more per year. Personally, I want nothing to do with Padilla.

 

Sure he does, he has better stuff. Same reason that Marmol has better stuff than Hill, yet their K ratios are on opposite sides of the spectrum.

 

Stuff isn't all about Ks, Brandon Webb has better stuff than each of them, yet his K ratio translates to about 6.7.

 

Both pitchers have gone through odd increases and decreases of velo during their career.

 

I like Padilla more than Lilly, but at that same token, GMs will value Lilly more b/c he is a lefty and pitched in that "difficult" AL east and whatever value they put on facing the Yankees and Red Sox 4-8 times a year with Toronto.

 

I'm more than willing to bet that Padilla will get less than Lilly.

 

I actually think that those Yankees/Red Sox starts could have a significant effect on Lilly's overall numbers, while I haven't looked at his numbers on a start by start basis - in addition to the other top offensive clubs in the AL, including the White Sox over the past two years.

[UK1679666180]

What about facing the below numbers against TB, Balt compared to playing in Arlington for a year as well as Philly.

[Guest]

What about facing the below numbers against TB, Balt compared to playing in Arlington for a year as well as Philly.

 

Didn't tampa and baltimore have pretty good offenses? What are their GB/FB ratios?

[UK1679666180]

Balt was middle of the pack and TB had the worst offense in baseball.

 

Lilly G/F ratio .82

Padilla " " 1.45

[Guest]

Balt was middle of the pack and TB had the worst offense in baseball.

 

Lilly G/F ratio .82

Padilla " " 1.45

 

to me, "stuff" isn't worth anything unless it produces results - therefore, saying someone has better stuff is meaningless without results. padilla hasn't produced results. I would stay away from both of them.

[UK1679666180]

They're middle of the pack starters, probably a #3 on an avg. staff and a 4-5 on an above avg. staff. I think Lilly will be on the + side of 7 mil and Padilla will be on the - side of 7 mil.

 

Right now, the Cubs need a top of the rotation starter and a middle one.

[YearofDaCubs]

They're middle of the pack starters, probably a #3 on an avg. staff and a 4-5 on an above avg. staff. I think Lilly will be on the + side of 7 mil and Padilla will be on the - side of 7 mil.

 

Right now, the Cubs need a top of the rotation starter and a middle one.

Agreed. Matsuzaka and Lilly are my top choices in each category.

[nilodnayr]

They're middle of the pack starters, probably a #3 on an avg. staff and a 4-5 on an above avg. staff. I think Lilly will be on the + side of 7 mil and Padilla will be on the - side of 7 mil.

 

Right now, the Cubs need a top of the rotation starter and a middle one.

Agreed. Matsuzaka and Lilly are my top choices in each category.

 

What in this thread has proved to you that Lilly is the top choice of the second tier starters, the high amount of fly balls and homeruns allowed, or the high walk rate?

[Rob]

They're middle of the pack starters, probably a #3 on an avg. staff and a 4-5 on an above avg. staff. I think Lilly will be on the + side of 7 mil and Padilla will be on the - side of 7 mil.

 

Right now, the Cubs need a top of the rotation starter and a middle one.

Agreed. Matsuzaka and Lilly are my top choices in each category.

 

What in this thread has proved to you that Lilly is the top choice of the second tier starters, the high amount of fly balls and homeruns allowed, or the high walk rate?

 

Personally, this thread helped cement my opinion that neither one of them is likely to live up to their contract, and both should probably be avoided like the plague.