We Should Worry about Zambrano

[UK1679666180]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

 

Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years.

 

A history of being careless in meaningless situations doesn't cure itself if a pitcher doesn't injure himself in that process.

 

The Cubs had Z out there far too long in numerous games that were already decided dating back to '03.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

 

Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years.

 

You say magically appear, I say reach the pitcher's breaking point. Just because different pitchers have different thresholds for abuse doesn't mean they're immune from breaking down from overuse.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

 

Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years.

 

Yes, those pitch counts have been consistent but doesn't the fact that they have been consistently BAD for a young pitcher mean anything?

 

Do you really think that if someone is stressing one part of their body as much as Z does will be fine for 10-12 years? He throws hard, has crappy mechanics, and even though he came into this year looking good he gains weight easy, and can't control his stuff.

 

I hit a nerve with alot of people by bringing Z's flaws, but they cannot be ignored simply because he gives the fans something positive to talk about.

 

People say Livan Hernandez could take anything, but he's breaking down and has been losing effectiveness for a while. There was a time when Hernandez had pretty nasty stuff...now his fastball is mediocre at best and he's a back of the rotation innings eater.

[TheDude]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

[UK1679666180]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

Do you need a study to prove that a team should be careful with a highly valuable asset like Zambrano? Especially when the situation can allow a team to rest him?

[TheDude]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

Do you need a study to prove that a team should be careful with a highly valuable asset like Zambrano? Especially when the situation can allow a team to rest him?

 

If you are going to claim that his pitch counts over the course of 4 consecutive years have a direct causal relationship to higher injury risk, then yes, I'd like to see the evidence that this link exists.

 

Throwing out random pitchers names is irrelevent. You have to show this relationship exists in a meaningful way for me to believe Zambrano is going to suddenly breakdown next year.

[CubinNY]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

jason shmidt

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml

 

Curt Schilling

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

Randy Johnson

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

Pedro Martinez (see years 2001 and 2006)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml

 

The infamous Ernie Brogilo (traded for Lou Brock)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brogler01.shtml

 

You can look up the rest. The number of innings and the increased likelihood of injury is self-evident.

Edited October 19, 2006 by CubinNY

[goonys evil twin]

If you are going to claim that his pitch counts over the course of 4 consecutive years have a direct causal relationship to higher injury risk, then yes, I'd like to see the evidence that this link exists.

 

Throwing out random pitchers names is irrelevent. You have to show this relationship exists in a meaningful way for me to believe Zambrano is going to suddenly breakdown next year.

 

So we have to wait for him to get injured, and then come back to you and show you what happened to prove there could be a connection?

[Andy]

No one said Z would break down "next year". But there's certainly plenty of reason to believe he will do so before most pitchers would.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

No one said Z would break down "next year". But there's certainly plenty of reason to believe he will do so before most pitchers would.

 

But if we don't get him inked to an extension, it may not be our problem.

[TheDude]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

jason shmidt

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml

 

Curt Schilling

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

Randy Johnson

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

Pedro Martinez (see years 2001 and 2006)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml

 

The infamous Ernie Brogilo (traded for Lou Brock)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brogler01.shtml

 

You can look up the rest. The number of innings and the increased likelihood of injury is self-evident.

 

Sorry, but what does this prove? Am I supposed to now go and find a half-dozen players with 3000+ pitch counts over several years who haven't been injured?

 

This is the most irrational way to present an argument you could come up with...you're just plucking random pitchers to try and support a claim.

[UK1679666180]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

Do you need a study to prove that a team should be careful with a highly valuable asset like Zambrano? Especially when the situation can allow a team to rest him?

 

If you are going to claim that his pitch counts over the course of 4 consecutive years have a direct causal relationship to higher injury risk, then yes, I'd like to see the evidence that this link exists.

 

Throwing out random pitchers names is irrelevent. You have to show this relationship exists in a meaningful way for me to believe Zambrano is going to suddenly breakdown next year.

 

While the ASMI isn't nec. compared to common sense as far as throwing being an unnatural movement with painful consequences as far as it being done too frequently or more likely done incorrectly.

 

The more often a pitcher throws, especially while fatigued, the more likely he is to alter his mechanics and increases the chances of an injury.

 

http://www.asmi.org/asmiweb/research/usedarticles/elbshopain.htm

[TheDude]

No one said Z would break down "next year". But there's certainly plenty of reason to believe he will do so before most pitchers would.

 

Read the thread topic title. Then read the the first post.

[Andy]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

jason shmidt

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml

 

Curt Schilling

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

Randy Johnson

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

Pedro Martinez (see years 2001 and 2006)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml

 

The infamous Ernie Brogilo (traded for Lou Brock)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brogler01.shtml

 

You can look up the rest. The number of innings and the increased likelihood of injury is self-evident.

 

Sorry, but what does this prove? Am I supposed to now go and find a half-dozen players with 3000+ pitch counts over several years who haven't been injured?

Good luck finding any.

[TheDude]

Good luck finding any.

 

You have to be joking. I'm just going to assume the sarcasm smiley here.

[CubinNY]

Good to see that any of the responses posted backed-up the claim with any qualitative evidence or study. This is purely speculatitive analysis, and in some cases:

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

 

As utterly random and baseless as you can get.

 

jason shmidt

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml

 

Curt Schilling

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

Randy Johnson

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

Pedro Martinez (see years 2001 and 2006)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml

 

The infamous Ernie Brogilo (traded for Lou Brock)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brogler01.shtml

 

You can look up the rest. The number of innings and the increased likelihood of injury is self-evident.

 

Sorry, but what does this prove? Am I supposed to now go and find a half-dozen players with 3000+ pitch counts over several years who haven't been injured?

 

This is the most irrational way to present an argument you could come up with...you're just plucking random pitchers to try and support a claim.

 

Are you kidding me. These pitchers aren't random at all. They have all been highly effective and pitched a lot of innings before being injured. All have similar "traits" as big Z.

 

You want to talk about irrational? Denying that Z's abuse may affect his future performance is about as irrational as it gets.

[Outshined_One]

As I've said in other places, guys back before they lowered the mound and constricted the strike zone may have thrown 300+ innings in a year, but they threw a heck of a lot less pitches per inning in the process.

[TheDude]

Are you kidding me. These pitchers aren't random at all. They have all been highly effective and pitched a lot of innings before being injured. All have similar "traits" as big Z.

 

You want to talk about irrational? Denying that Z's abuse may affect his future performance is about as irrational as it gets.

 

Studies to define correlary are not peformed by picking names out of a control pool that support your theory. Sorry, it doesn't fly.

[CubinNY]

Are you kidding me. These pitchers aren't random at all. They have all been highly effective and pitched a lot of innings before being injured. All have similar "traits" as big Z.

 

You want to talk about irrational? Denying that Z's abuse may affect his future performance is about as irrational as it gets.

 

Studies to define correlary are not peformed by picking names out of a control pool that support your theory. Sorry, it doesn't fly.

 

What are you talking about? Forget it, you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Here is something for you to chew on

 

http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=148

 

Check out the bolded names.

 

Here is another one

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/pap2003.htm

 

Check the top of the list

 

Here is a study done by pedromartinezfan (it's about half way down)

http://forums.nyyfans.com/archive/index.php/t-83481.html

 

You want more?

Edited October 19, 2006 by CubinNY

[CuseCubFan69]

Trading Z and adding a free agent pitcher could be akin to letting Maddux go and signing Guzman. The things I always liked about Maddux is that he was never hurt but the abuse that Z has had under Baker may make him more valnerable to injury than if he was handled correctly. This is something that Hendry has to take very seriously IMO and if he is going to move Z this off season he could be at his peak value. Just imagine what Hendry could have got for Prior a couple of years ago.

[UK1679666180]

When I spoke of being careless with Zambrano...

 

Several examples from the 2004' season...

 

April 15-117 pitches in a 10-5 win (9-1 when he left the game)

April 20-111 pitches in a 9-1 win

May 13-114 pitches in a 7-3 win (6-1 when he was pulled)

May 30-110 pitches in a 12-1 win

June 5th-113 pitches in a 6-1 win

June 10th-121 pitches (12-3 win)

June 26th-128 pitches thru 6 in a 6-3 loss

July 2nd-124 pitches thru 6.1 (6-2 win)

July 29th-120 pitches in a 4-0 win

Aug. 11th-124 pitches in a 5-1 win

Aug. 23rd-115 pitches thru 6.2 in a 8-3 win

Sept. 6th-119 pitches in a 9-1 win

Sept. 17th-112 pitches in a 12-4 win

Sept. 27th-124 pitches thru 6.1IP in a 12-5 win

[TheDude]

Are you kidding me. These pitchers aren't random at all. They have all been highly effective and pitched a lot of innings before being injured. All have similar "traits" as big Z.

 

You want to talk about irrational? Denying that Z's abuse may affect his future performance is about as irrational as it gets.

 

Studies to define correlary are not peformed by picking names out of a control pool that support your theory. Sorry, it doesn't fly.

 

What are you talking about? Forget it, you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Here is something for you to chew on

 

http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=148

 

I'm not dismissing studies into pitcher abuse. What I'm saying is nothing has been shown definitively beyond speculative analysis.

 

The first aticle you cite names Colon at the poster boy for injury based on pitcher abuse. He pitched 8 consecutive years over 3200 pitches without injury (beyond nagging).

 

2006 was his first real significant injury year, with a torn rotator cuff. Are the two defintively related? No, this hasn't been shown. Whose to say the injury isn't related to a serious lack of physical conditioning?

 

Is there reason to be suspicious and cautious, just in case? Yes, absolutely. This is reasonable to a point. It's worth considering and taking precaution with young pitchers.

 

I take issue with absolute certainly and fervor by which this is preached however. It hasn't been shown definitively, because of the difficulty of organizing and displaying the data. Pitch count limits are abitrary, and the founders/promoters of it know it is arbitrary.

 

I don't subscribe to the idea that Zambrano is automatically going to be injured at some point. I agree with pulling him in the 110 PC range, because that seems to be his personal limit for effectiveness. But you can't come in to the conversation stating the case absolutely, because it is simply isn't true.

[CubinNY]

But you can't come in to the conversation stating the case absolutely, because it is simply isn't true.

 

No one has done that but you.

 

There are always outlliers in any data set. However, the evidence is completely and overwhealmingly conclusive that high pitches per inning and innings pitched are related to future arm problems. And perhaps more damning, future inefecitveness.

 

Your insistnace that things be "proven" conclusive is both irrational and foolish. It's like the cigerrette companies stating that somking doesn't cause cancer.

[Outshined_One]

2006 was his first real significant injury year, with a torn rotator cuff. Are the two defintively related? No, this hasn't been shown. Whose to say the injury isn't related to a serious lack of physical conditioning?

 

And who's to say that an invisible midget didn't sneak into Colon's room every night in 2006 and whacked his shoulder repeatedly with a hammer?

 

The pitcher overuse and future injury are strongly correlated. There is a ton of evidence that supports the idea that trotting guys out every five days and making them throw 120 pitches will most likely result in a serious injury. Making 10 year old kids throw curveballs will most likely wreck their arms. Having bad mechanics will almost always hurt a pitcher.

 

There are always a few exceptions to these rules, yes. There is no formula that will work every single time in proving when and where a pitcher will sustain an injury. Some pitchers are better conditioned than others. Some guys will be able to withstand more abuse than others.

 

That does not mean we should ignore this possibility; not by any stretch of the imagination. The human body can only withstand so much punishment before it suffers a breakdown of some sort. Managers and pitching coaches should not test these limits. They should not ignore the strong possibility that a player could suffer a breakdown.

 

For these reasons, we should worry about Zambrano. If he is one of the very few freakish guys who will manage to withstand that kind of abuse and still maintain the same level of talent and consistency, awesome. But if he isn't, then there are enough warning signs to merit a lot of concern for his future.

 

If the new (well, with Larry back, old) coaching staff does not monitor those warning signs and acts accordingly, it will be one of the absolute worst things this organization has ever done. It will simply be inexcuseable.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Why are the people in the camp where all the prove is at (that pitchers who throw high amounts of pitches usually get hurt)

 

TheDude, the job is for you to prove what has already been given an extraordinary amount of evidence for.

 

There have been studies that say more pitches at young age = BAD.

 

Where is your proof that Z is immune to it? That a pitcher who from age like...22 to 25 has AVERAGED 110 pitches per start will be OK?

 

Worse...the pitcher throws hard but does it with poor mechanics, and gains weight easily is fine for the future?

 

Where is your proof for any of this? Simply because it hasn't happen it won't happen? How will you react if it does happen? Will you complain about his high pitch counts and other worries then? Or simply say its the nature of the game - guys come and go?

 

I love Z. I think the guy is exactly what a team like the Cubs need right now (besides a healthy Mark Prior). But ignoring his major problems when his big pay day is coming up cannot be done anymore. He's 26 and his percieved (and actual) value is very high, if anything he is the most perfect sell high candidate on the whole team.