The Arizona Fall League...

[mg420]

Scott Moore starting in LF for Mesa today. :shock:

 

the prelude to a bench spot in 2007? he can play 3b, 1b & lf all for guys who (hopefully in aram's case) bat righty.

[TruffleShuffle]

If in fact he's able to sustain a drastically reduced K rate, without in any way compromising his power or BABIP or IsoD in the process, then he's got a chance to be a pretty good offensive player.

 

I don't think he'll be a low-K player. He just isn't cut out for that. However, he's not a complete hacker either and he will take a good amount of walks. From following games it seems like a lot of his strikeouts are the result of having a good eye, not from just waving aimlessly at balls outside the strike zone.

 

And, it's not as if he had a horrible year. It was certainly a dropoff from his outstanding 2005 season, but a .300 OBP and .738 OPS is still fine for a second baseman playing in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. He has struck out 199 times in 257 games - not great for a guy who projects as a leadoff hitter, but not unacceptably high. His IsoD of .069 is good and is a hell of a lot better than most of the losers in this organization, and his 2006 OBP of .339 is all right. I think he's still learning a lot too, having only been in the organization only two seasons.

 

With a 13% K-rate, 10HR/500 AB, and a .310 BABIP, I'd be looking at a .284/.349-OBP guy. With a .150 IsoP, we're up around .780 in OPS. If he was a good basestealer and went 35SB/13CS, his SB/CS adjusted OPS could be around .800. That could be pretty good for a 2B.

 

Good to see someone else hopping on the bandwagon, even if it's a little tentative :)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scott Moore starting in LF for Mesa today. :shock:

 

the prelude to a bench spot in 2007? he can play 3b, 1b & lf all for guys who (hopefully in aram's case) bat righty.

 

Ugh, I hope not. He needs to be playing everyday, preferably at Iowa.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mesa loses 7-5, box:

 

2B E. Patterson 2/4, R, 3B (1), CS (2), 2 E (4: fielding, 5: throwing)

LF S. Moore 1/4, R, 2B (4), RBI (7)

C. J. Fox 0/3, K (6)

 

Overall:

 

Eric Patterson: 17/49, .347/.396/.449/.845, 4 BB, 5 K, 6/8 SB, 5 E

Scott Moore: 10/43, .233/.353/.395/.748, 8 BB, 11 K, 4/4 SB, 1 E

Jake Fox: 6/29, .207/.233/.276/.509, 1 BB, 6 K, 1/1 SB, 1 E

[RichHillIsABeast]

WTH is wrong with EPat's defense lately?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

And people said Todd Walker was bad defensively.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

In regards to Eric's errors yesterday - the throwing error was about 6' over the first baseman's head and the fielding error was a double clutch on a slow groundball. Defensively, he doesn't look the same as he did earlier in the year and today he started at DH.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ugh, Lincoln Holdzkom got lit up today, giving up his first earned runs of the AFL season - 3 IP, 4 ER.

[craig]

I don't think he'll be a low-K player. He just isn't cut out for that. However, he's not a complete hacker either and he will take a good amount of walks. From following games it seems like a lot of his strikeouts are the result of having a good eye, not from just waving aimlessly at balls outside the strike zone.

 

Low-K is one thing. Fuld, Izturis, Pierre, those are real low-K players, guys who can K at 10% or less. High-K is another. It took a late rush by Patterson to get his K-rate down towards 19%, and for first 1.5 years, he was well over 20%.

 

Something in the 13-15% range, that's more intermediate. If Eric isn't cut out to be able to get his K-rate down towards the 13-15% range, then he's presumably not cut out to be a big-league starter.

 

Because from what I've heard, he's not cut out to be a 20-HR type hitter. If you're whiffing 20% of your AB and HR's only 2% of your AB (per 500 AB, 100 K and 10 HR), you're not going to be much of an offensive value. Then you're looking at maybe a .250-.265 type batting average. Even with a solid IsoD, that's not going to make it happen for him.

 

I don't think it's real complicated. He's gotta either hit a bunch of HR's, get the K's to a reasonable level in or below the mid teens % rather than 20% area, or evolve into a gold-glove type fielder.

 

But I don't think either his defense, his HR power, or his IsoD project to make him a big value if he's hitting .260.

 

Hitting .280-.290 won't be easy unless he either pushes 20 HR's or gets his K-rate down to a manageable level.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mesa loses 7-3, box:

 

DH E. Patterson 0/3, R, BB (5)

RP L. Holdzkom 3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 K/2 BB, 4 GO-1 FO, 51 pitches (30 strikes)

RP C. Rapada 0.2 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 K/0 BB, 0 GO-1 FO, 19 pitches (13 strikes)

 

Overall:

 

Eric Patterson: 17/52, .327/.386/.423/.809, 5 BB, 5 K, 6/8 SB, 5 E

Lincoln Holdzkom: 11 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 7 H, 11 K/2 BB, 3.27 ERA, 0.81 WHIP

Clay Rapada: 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 10 K/2 BB, 1.42 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Luke Hochevar left the Grand Canyon Rafters with a sore shoulder. The Royals are saying it's strictly precautionary.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Why is Holdzkom throwing a 3 inning outing? Seems odd.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The East Rising Stars (Mesa, Phoenix, Scottsdale) won the AFL Showcase 3-1, box:

 

2B E. Patterson 0/1, K

1B S. Moore 0/2, K - starter

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Why is Holdzkom throwing a 3 inning outing? Seems odd.

 

Well, it wasn't the first time he's done it in the AFL (though his other 3 IP appearance had only 25 pitches). Lincoln gave up 3 of his runs in his last inning of work where he looked like he got tired.

 

Piggy hasn't pitched since last Saturday because of a cut in his non-throwing hand. He's been throwing catch and working in the bullpen in the mean time and expects to get into games once his stitches come off on Tuesday.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mesa wins 5-3, box:

 

3B S. Moore 1/3, R, HR (2), RBI (8), BB (9), K (12)

C J. Fox 1/3, R, 2B (3), RBI (8)

 

Overall:

 

Scott Moore: 11/46, .239/.364/.457/.821, 2 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 4/4 SB, 1 E

Jake Fox: 7/32, .219/.242/313/.555, 1 BB, 6 K, 1/1 SB, 1 E

[TruffleShuffle]

E-Patt today -

 

3/5, 3B, HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 error (6th)

 

 

Back of the envelope calculations on his numbers:

 

.351/.403/.526/.929, 15 runs in 14 games

[CaliforniaRaisin]

E-Patt today -

 

3/5, 3B, HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 error (6th)

 

 

Back of the envelope calculations on his numbers:

 

.351/.403/.526/.929, 15 runs in 14 games

 

Scott Moore also had a huge game. Mesa wins 14-4, box:

 

2B E. Patterson 3/5, 2 R, 3B (2), HR (1), RBI (8), K (6), E (6, throwing)

DH S. Moore 3/5, 3 R, 2B (5), HR (3), RBI (9)

RP C. Rapada 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 2 K/0 BB, HBP, 1 GO-0 FO, 12 pitches (7 strikes)

 

Overall:

 

Eric Patterson: 20/57, .351/.403/.526/.929, 5 BB, 6 K, 6/8 SB, 6 E

Scott Moore: 14/51, .275/.373/.549/.922, 8 BB, 12 K, 4/4 SB, 1 E

Clay Rapada: 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 12 K/2 BB, 1.23 ERA, 0.68 WHIP

Edited October 31, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Moore is starting to heat up.

[Balsa]

No kidding, love that IsoD.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

AZ Phil's analysis of the Cubs in the AFL thus far.

 

Summary:

 

EPatt: Better pitch selection. Freddie Bynum-esque at 2B and might need to move to the OF. :(

Moore: Fantastic. A Hank Blalock comparison.

Fox: Horrible behind the plate, struggling at the plate. Not ready for AAA. :(

Holdzkom: Been great outside of that one 50-pitch outing. Lock for the 40-man. Dibble comparison.

Rapada: Classic LOOGY, lock for the 40-man. Mike Myers comparison.

Pignatiello: Re-born as a reliever, not quite a LOOGY but has a great arsenal of pitches from his starting days.

Harben: Lots of pitches, no plus pitches. Ceiling of a 4-5 starter or a middle reliever.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I like what I'm reading about Moore. A Blalock comparison is nice!

[jtownie]

Could EPatt potentially play CF or will he end up a corner OF?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Could EPatt potentially play CF or will he end up a corner OF?

 

He has the athleticism to play CF but LF is an easier position to learn.

 

I for one hope the Cubs can try to keep him at 2B because he's much more valuable there. He has the range and talent to play 2B, he seems to be pressing big time right now and hopefully that is all it is.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Halloween for minor leaguers.

 

"We had a dentist in the neighborhood who always handed out toothbrushes, and if you were lucky you'd get some floss too."

-- Kevin Melillo, 2B, Oakland Athletics

 

What are your plans for Halloween this year? What are you wearing?

"Every day of the season I dress up as a pitcher and sometimes I manage to fool a few people."

-- Travis Driskill, P, Houston Astros

[Bruno7481]

Good to see the numbers Moore and Patterson are putting up. I wasn't very high on Patterson going into the AFL season, he had a decent year, but hardly anything spectacular.

 

Curious as to what will happen with Moore if A-ram is resigned. Not sure if he could re-learn SS or not. He mainly played 3B and 1B last year with the Cubs, if A-ram is back, those positions aren't likely to be open anytime soon.