Buy low on Adam Dunn?

[Bruno7481]

Joe Sheehan from BP on Adam Dunn:

 

"Do you think things might have been different if Adam Dunn shown up for the second half? With another 0-fer last night, Dunn dropped to .153/.344/.264 in September, .230/.367/.426 since the All-Star break. He has killed the Reds for two months, batting .170 in the middle of the lineup with just 13 extra-base hits. That’s not a slump; that’s a disaster, and it’s gone unnoticed in part because guys like me are so used to defending Dunn that we didn’t look at him when doing the Reds’ autopsy. Unlike in past seasons, when Dunn was criticized for his approach while still being productive, this time the big guy is a big reason why the Reds have failed. Stathead favorite or no, Dunn deserves a load of criticism for his part in this season.

 

Pretty much what I tried to convey earlier.

[goonys evil twin]

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders.

 

As Tim pointed out elsewhere, there are a lot of 3B out there. And if you break down the production teams are getting from LF, RF and 3B, you'll probably see 3B is really no more of a premium than a corner OF spot.

[CubColtPacer]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

Yes, and here is why.

 

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders. Also, I don't think A-Ram's numbers fluctuate as extremely as Adam Dunn's. Aramis' month of April was brutal, but that has been about it. I don''t think you can really compare the two in regards to your question.

 

I'm not arguing that he is worthless or unproductive, he is certainly productive. But at the same time, he has some pretty big flaws and his lack of consistency holds him back from being a truly elite player, imo.

 

So, you criticize Dunn for not showing up when you think his team needed him most, yet don't find the same fault that Ramirez didn't start playing until his team didn't need him.

 

Ramirez in April: 197/321/394

Dunn in Sept: 145/330/250

 

Both are pretty bad.

 

Ramirez in May:266/296/495

Dunn in August: 188/284/416

 

Both had two horrible months. Ramirez began his season with two bad months, while Dunn ended his with two bad months.

 

Season stats:

Ramirez: 290/350/558

Dunn: 233/366/493

 

Ramirez has had a better year, but not substantially. Ramirez may play third, but he plays it nearly as bad as Dunn plays left. Furthermore, a bad play by the 3b likely affects the team more than a bad play in left.

 

Your argument that advocates signing Ramirez while piddling away his first two months while using Dunn's last two months as proof not to acquire him lacks as much consistinecy as Dunn or Ramirez combined.

 

I'm advocating signing Ramirez because he is the most productive player the Cubs currently have, they need to keep him.

 

I'm not dogging Dunn, but I don't think the Cubs should give the farm for him either. I would explore other alternatives through FA before committing a lot of young talent towards acquiring Dunn.

 

I do thnk Dunn has hurt his team the last few months, the numbers show it. The Reds have had the equivalent production of Nefi Perez playing everyday in LF since August, well maybe not that bad, but pretty close.

 

Dunn hasn't hurt his team any more than Ramirez hurt his in April and May.

 

And there aren't a lot of options in FA except for Carlos Lee and Soriano. Both of those will be paid more than Dunn is due in the next two years. Dunn is also younger and likely to outproduce them.

 

And based on his last two months, now might be the time to acquire Dunn who is just now entering his prime.

 

Actually Vance, I think you just proved with the stats that Dunn hurt his team a great deal more than Ramirez did in those two months. Ramirez's April had 135 points better in OPS than Dunn's September, and his May is 91 points better in OPS than Dunn's August. Those are pretty significant differences.

You are of course correct that the two players have not had a huge difference this year (which makes the worst two months argument kind of pointless anyway), although Ramirez has been better overall.

I also am not sure about the contention that Ramirez's defense at his position is as bad as Dunn's, but that would be pretty hard to compare, so I'll just leave it there.

[USSoccer]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

I don't know that Ramirez is all that inconsistent. He's had 3 bad months out of 20 as a Cub. I don't think he has a consistency problem. Also, you asserted that Ramirez plays 3B poorly. I'm not sure that's the case anymore. I think he's improved enough to be average.

 

And FWIW, Dunn and Ramirez are both extremely worthy of big money.

[kroth1342]

Dunn's splits month by month.

 

April, .265/.432/.614 33K 25BB

 

May, .212/.328/.535 26K 17BB

 

June, .221/.368/.537 32K 22BB

 

July, .354/.451/.573 27K 14 BB

 

August, .188/.284/.416 39K 13BB

 

September, .153/.344/.264 33/k 19 BB

 

 

Didn't exactly produce when the Reds needed it most. Dunn is productive in his own way, he certainly has his faults too. I don't think he would be worth what the Cubs would have to give up though.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't read what you said because I was distracted by the 4 months of a .530 and above SLG.

[CP_414]

This is the perfect time to get Dunn. The guy has had a "down year" and he has a OBP of nearly .370 and 40 HR's! If you can get Dunn on the cheap, you gotta do it. I would offer Jones and 1 or 2 of the young pitchers we saw this year who aren't near the top of our list. I'm in the minority, in that I think Murton can hold his own in RF. Put Dunn in Left, get a stopgap in CF like Lofton or Roberts, and Murton in RF. Upgrade a middle infild spot and the rotation and we're in business.

 

 

I was also wondering, is Aaron Harang a free agent? I read he was, and if that is true he is a guy I would love to see the Cubs make a run at. Lots of HR's allowed, but solid ERA and steady improvement nearly every season so far.

[Bruno7481]

I'm not against the idea of getting Dunn, if he can be obtained cheaply. I don't think he can though. He's recently signed an extension with the Reds for a reasonable amount of money. They aren't going to give him away cheaply, even with his terrible production the past two months.

[soccer10k]

I'm not against the idea of getting Dunn, if he can be obtained cheaply. I don't think he can though. He's recently signed an extension with the Reds for a reasonable amount of money. They aren't going to give him away cheaply, even with his terrible production the past two months.

 

10.5M in 07 and a 13M club option (.5M buyout).

[Yestheydo]

First of all, Dunn's option is voided if he is traded, so he'd be a one year rental. I still think he'd be a good fit for the Cubs; he produces early in the year, when Ramirez and Lee traditionally struggle. The problem many Reds fans have with him is that they expect him to perform like a franchise player, when he's really just a very good complementary player (so far). He's starting to get expensive, and they can't really afford to keep two high-priced unreliable sluggers. And they're stuck with Jr., so I do think Dunn will be available, big-time. I could also see them gambling with Chris Denorfia/ Norris Hopper at leadoff, if Ryan Freel could get them something good.

 

How about this:

 

Cubs get Dunn and Freel.

 

Reds get Murton, Theriot, Aardsma, Marmol.

 

Freel buys Pie another year, and ends this Pierre nonsense for good.

[Bruno7481]

First of all, Dunn's option is voided if he is traded, so he'd be a one year rental. I still think he'd be a good fit for the Cubs; he produces early in the year, when Ramirez and Lee traditionally struggle. The problem many Reds fans have with him is that they expect him to perform like a franchise player, when he's really just a very good complementary player (so far). He's starting to get expensive, and they can't really afford to keep two high-priced unreliable sluggers. And they're stuck with Jr., so I do think Dunn will be available, big-time. I could also see them gambling with Chris Denorfia/ Norris Hopper at leadoff, if Ryan Freel could get them something good.

 

How about this:

 

Cubs get Dunn and Freel.

 

Reds get Murton, Theriot, Aardsma, Marmol.

 

Freel buys Pie another year, and ends this Pierre nonsense for good.

 

Not too sidetrack this, but I have a little more appreciation for Pierre's season than others. April and May he was terrible, but since he has been pretty good.

[Guest]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

ARam & Pierre's April hurt our chances, too.

 

BTW - I think the Reds' demise can be linked to the idiotic trade with Washington.

[Yestheydo]

 

BTW - I think the Reds' demise can be linked to the idiotic trade with Washington.

 

The Washington trade didn't help, but it didn't leave any obvious gaping holes in their lineup, as they wound up with Freel and Aurilia replacing Lopez and Kearns. What I think it did was hurt their bench considerably and expose the weakness in the foundation of their offense, Jr. and Dunn. Whether or not the trade was truly idiotic remains to be seen, though I admit it's not looking good right now. I still support the idea of strengthening pitching even if it weakens your offense.

[Bruno7481]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

ARam & Pierre's April hurt our chances, too.

 

BTW - I think the Reds' demise can be linked to the idiotic trade with Washington.

 

I agree with A-ram and Pierre hurt the Cubs. But why is it so hard for everyone to admit that Dunn has been abysmal since August? To say his lack of production didn't effect the Reds chances is puzzling to me.

[Yestheydo]

I agree with A-ram and Pierre hurt the Cubs. But why is it so hard for everyone to admit that Dunn has been abysmal since August? To say his lack of production didn't effect the Reds chances is puzzling to me.

 

Because he has a high OBP, and OBP is god. Only players with low OBP's are subject to criticism.

[Backtobanks]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

ARam & Pierre's April hurt our chances, too.

 

BTW - I think the Reds' demise can be linked to the idiotic trade with Washington.

 

I agree with A-ram and Pierre hurt the Cubs. But why is it so hard for everyone to admit that Dunn has been abysmal since August? To say his lack of production didn't effect the Reds chances is puzzling to me.

 

Combine ARam & Pierre's April with Dunn's end of the year and you would really have a pitiful team (more pitiful).

[Bruno7481]

Dunn's season is over, fittingly with a strikeout.

 

To kind of put a bow on this whole discussion, here are his final number's for the year.

 

.234/.365/.490/.855

 

Final #'s for September: .157/.333/.265/.598

 

Post ASB numbers: .228/.362/.419/.781

 

 

Is he really worth giving up probably two top prospects for?

[RockTheIvy]

This is the perfect time to get Dunn. The guy has had a "down year" and he has a OBP of nearly .370 and 40 HR's! If you can get Dunn on the cheap, you gotta do it. I would offer Jones and 1 or 2 of the young pitchers we saw this year who aren't near the top of our list. I'm in the minority, in that I think Murton can hold his own in RF. Put Dunn in Left, get a stopgap in CF like Lofton or Roberts, and Murton in RF. Upgrade a middle infild spot and the rotation and we're in business.

 

 

I was also wondering, is Aaron Harang a free agent? I read he was, and if that is true he is a guy I would love to see the Cubs make a run at. Lots of HR's allowed, but solid ERA and steady improvement nearly every season so far.

 

I don't really agree that we would necessarily be "buying low" on Adam Dunn. There are a lot of GMs in baseball who would love to have Adam Dunn for the same reasons we would. It'll still take a lot to get him. If he was available, don't you think the Red Sox would be after him? Or Oakland? While this season wasn't Dunn's best, it was more or less a typical Dunn season, lots of Ks, low avg, high OBP and Slug%. We would have to give up a ton to get him, and be willing to beat some other clubs with much better farm systems.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

 

Is he really worth giving up probably two top prospects for?

 

Yes.

 

Even in the horrible post AS numbers, he still had an 855 OPS. That's not horrible. Considering he still has the ability to post an OPS over 900 in a full season, he is worth acquiring.

 

He's still only 26 years old. He hasn't entered his prime yet.

 

Considering this team's two biggest needs are slugging and OBP and Dunn helps with both of those.

[Bruno7481]

 

 

Is he really worth giving up probably two top prospects for?

 

Yes.

 

Even in the horrible post AS numbers, he still had an 855 OPS. That's not horrible. Considering he still has the ability to post an OPS over 900 in a full season, he is worth acquiring.

 

He's still only 26 years old. He hasn't entered his prime yet.

 

Considering this team's two biggest needs are slugging and OBP and Dunn helps with both of those.

 

But there is no concern at all for his 2nd half? That is more than just a minor slump, it is half a season.

 

I just wouldn't give up the farm for him, he's not in the same class of superstars that you do that for. Just my opinion though.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

 

Is he really worth giving up probably two top prospects for?

 

Yes.

 

Even in the horrible post AS numbers, he still had an 855 OPS. That's not horrible. Considering he still has the ability to post an OPS over 900 in a full season, he is worth acquiring.

 

He's still only 26 years old. He hasn't entered his prime yet.

 

Considering this team's two biggest needs are slugging and OBP and Dunn helps with both of those.

 

But there is no concern at all for his 2nd half? That is more than just a minor slump, it is half a season.

 

I just wouldn't give up the farm for him, he's not in the same class of superstars that you do that for. Just my opinion though.

 

I think his entire career speaks more than his second half. I also think his age must be taken into consideration.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I doubt the Reds will trade Dunn to an NLC team unless they overpay in a major way.

[Bruno7481]

I doubt the Reds will trade Dunn to an NLC team unless they overpay in a major way.

 

Total agreement.

 

With that in mind, I don't think he would be worth what it would take to get him.