Cedeno stinks and stinks hard

[Sammy Sofa]

Good argument, but to me it's not really even these numbers, it's that he's pulled some of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen at the MLB level.

 

Agreed! I can't really remember a SS or 2nd basemen that has made so many poor choice decisions as Cedeno has.

 

I hope people aren't talking about the throw home. That was the right move, he had Burrell by several steps, the throw was just not a good one.

I disagree that it was the right move. In a scoreless game early on, you should always go for the gauranteed out at first. Especially when the pitcher who can't hit was due up next and would have been the third out.

 

yeah, i think that was a horrible decision. take the out at first, strike out lieber, let them have their one run.

 

if i had to pick one guy to keep between murton and cedeno, i'd take murton.

 

I don't believe that was a sure out at first.

 

But I thought there were no outs at the time. If there was one with Lieber on deck than yes, he should have gone to first. But his momentum was taking him away from first and he had Burrell by a couple steps. It was more execution than decision making.

 

Personally, I think that's the kind of play you pull off only if you're 99.9% sure you can do it.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm sorry, I just don't see anything that indicates that his poor playing is the stuff where he's a "fluke" or "slumping" and his good periods were the indication of an eventual norm. Even when he was "good" he was still hacking away at the plate...he looks lost up there, even when he comes through.

 

But you're willing to accept the same thing from an older player who makes a lot more money? I don't think Ronny has much of a chance of being good. I think he can be servicable. And if you are getting servicable, you might as well pay the minimum.

[ToupeeOnFire]

The Cubs can't afford to go into next year with a starting middle infield of Izturis and Cedeno...they simply can't. This whole situation just underscores how awful the Izturis trade was in the first place. You could have put Cedeno at short, hope he hits a little bit better with a little more power, and be content that he is only making the league minimum, freeing up money for other areas of need. Instead we are looking at probably the worst middle infield in all of baseball, with an overpaid Izturis at short and a shaky-fielding Cedeno at second who, true to his Cub pedigree, will swing at anything and everything. If this is the plan for next year, it will not be any kind of improvement over recent years, it will be a step backwards. But that's the way this team has been trending under Hendry.

[stitchface]

I think most people are ready to pencil izturis in because he will be starting at SS sure as the sun will rise whether we like it or not.

[goonys evil twin]

Personally, I think that's the kind of play you pull off only if you're 99.9% sure you can do it.

 

There's no way of ever making such a calculation, but the fact is he had the out, he just hit the runner with the throw.

 

 

I think the far bigger error in judgement was Dusty moving him to shortstop after starting him at 2nd and trying to get him to switch from being a SS to a 2B for the past 3 weeks. Brenly called him out for that one.

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs can't afford to go into next year with a starting middle infield of Izturis and Cedeno...they simply can't.

 

They can't, unless they overhaul the OF offense.

[CubColtPacer]

Even Neifi can and has "turned it on" offensively for brief stretches. Cedeno just hasn't really done anything as a whole that shows he'd be more useful than as a backup player at the very best. Maybe if this team was better you could stomach it and bury him at the bottom of the lineup, but as it stands in reality, he's showing little to nothing that indicates he can be starting for this team next year.

 

I disagree that he hasn't done anything to show he'd be able to start. His 2005 happened. You can't just ignore it. He was great in AAA, at 22, and solid in the majors, again, at 22. He's been disappointing this year. But anybody who thought it was going to be a straight line upward just wasn't being realistic. This is why I was so dead set against going into this season with the lineup as weak as it was and Murton and Cedeno starting together. You had to expect struggles. The odds are in his favor for improving over the next couple of years. Cesar Izturis had a 52 and 61 OPS+ at 22 and 23. Everybody seems to be willing to pencil him in as starter but unwilling to give Ronny a shot. This makes no sense to me. I'd much rather go with Cedeno than Izturis. Neither is going to be all that good next year, but one does it for next to nothing.

 

I think most people, including me, would be fine with trading Izturis and playing Cedeno at short next year. If they are both on the roster though and you are paying Izturis the money anyway, then he is still the better player of the two and should start. Their difference in production is not worth the difference in money right now, but there is a difference-and probably would be still a small difference even if Cedeno improved a small bit next year.

[Jehrico]

The Cubs can't afford to go into next year with a starting middle infield of Izturis and Cedeno...they simply can't.

 

They can't, unless they overhaul the OF offense.

 

In the best case scenario I can imagine for this offseason, I can't imagine Hendry improving the OF enough by way of FA signings or trades to cover for having those two in the middle infield, unless they trade Aramis or DLee. As much as I think Ronny will prosper under a new manager, I don't like taking the chance with him and Izturis both starting. Hopefully, Hendry will find a taker for Izturis in a package for a big OF bat.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm sorry, I just don't see anything that indicates that his poor playing is the stuff where he's a "fluke" or "slumping" and his good periods were the indication of an eventual norm. Even when he was "good" he was still hacking away at the plate...he looks lost up there, even when he comes through.

 

But you're willing to accept the same thing from an older player who makes a lot more money? I don't think Ronny has much of a chance of being good. I think he can be servicable. And if you are getting servicable, you might as well pay the minimum.

 

Who am I accepting that from? I don't want Izturis out there either. Yeah, if I have to pick between the two, I'm picking Cedeno because there's at least more of a chance he could improve with age...but not much. Bottom line, both are unacceptable to be starting for the Cubs next year unless they MASSIVELY upgrade the corner OF spots. I can deal with one of them if I must taking up a black hole spot at the bottom of the lineup, but both of them? No thanks. That's the exact opposite of improving on this year.

 

So far the best Cedeno arguments seem to be, "yeah, he's pretty bad, but he's not as bad as Izturisu because he's 2-3 years younger." When can we just flat out declare him bad? Another year? 2? 3?

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs can't afford to go into next year with a starting middle infield of Izturis and Cedeno...they simply can't.

 

They can't, unless they overhaul the OF offense.

 

In the best case scenario I can imagine for this offseason, I can't imagine Hendry improving the OF enough by way of FA signings or trades to cover for having those two in the middle infield, unless they trade Aramis or DLee. As much as I think Ronny will prosper under a new manager, I don't like taking the chance with him and Izturis both starting. Hopefully, Hendry will find a taker for Izturis in a package for a big OF bat.

 

Yeah, he probably wouldn't be able to improve it enough.

 

Well, you have to keep Ronny around anyway, because Izturis is as fragile as a pitcher.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I think most people, including me, would be fine with trading Izturis and playing Cedeno at short next year. If they are both on the roster though and you are paying Izturis the money anyway, then he is still the better player of the two and should start. Their difference in production is not worth the difference in money right now, but there is a difference-and probably would be still a small difference even if Cedeno improved a small bit next year.

 

Well said. I don't like Izturis, but the Cubs have the money and I DO think he has more upside for us than Cedeno does. If for no other reason that his defense is better and he runs the bases better. It's just $4MM for one year after all, Izturis' deal shouldn't hamstring Hendry from making other big moves.

[Jehrico]

This may belong in the transactions forum, but I think it belongs in this thread. What GMs out there are going to need a SS next year? Is this a case where Hendry value's Izturis more than anyone else, or are there any other GMs who would overvalue him as well? I wonder what a package of him and Murton or Jones would bring in the offseason...

[goonys evil twin]

So far the best Cedeno arguments seem to be, "yeah, he's pretty bad, but he's not as bad as Izturisu because he's 2-3 years younger." When can we just flat out declare him bad? Another year? 2? 3?

 

This is similar to the argument against Rich Hill. At which point? Well, you can say he's bad now, because he is bad now. But he's 23, with less than a season of major league baseball under his belt. I'd give him at least 2 full years to see if you can get improvement, and unless he plateaus at this levels during that time, still give him a chance to show some more.

[Jehrico]

So far the best Cedeno arguments seem to be, "yeah, he's pretty bad, but he's not as bad as Izturisu because he's 2-3 years younger." When can we just flat out declare him bad? Another year? 2? 3?

 

This is similar to the argument against Rich Hill. At which point? Well, you can say he's bad now, because he is bad now. But he's 23, with less than a season of major league baseball under his belt. I'd give him at least 2 full years to see if you can get improvement, and unless he plateaus at this levels during that time, still give him a chance to show some more.

Hill turned 26 back in March, which is why some are so down on him. I'm hoping a little more experience will increase his comfort, and he'll pitch as well here as he had in AAA.

[JGalt73]

Cedeno's offense, at a defensive position, is currently a cumulative 8th worst in baseball (VORP -13.3; #917/924 players).

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, it's starting to look more and more like his 2005 season was more of a fluke than any sort of leap forward in development.

[SoonerCubFan]

Good argument, but to me it's not really even these numbers, it's that he's pulled some of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen at the MLB level.

 

Agreed! I can't really remember a SS or 2nd basemen that has made so many poor choice decisions as Cedeno has.

 

I hope people aren't talking about the throw home. That was the right move, he had Burrell by several steps, the throw was just not a good one.

 

Isolated incidents should never be used as an argument, and certainly wasn't what I had in mind. It's after dozens of such, both offensively and defensively that this one is just another example.

 

I was all behind him early this year, and am willing to let young players evolve, but IMO players who have a tendency for boneheadedness and make physical errors under pressure have a lower chance of evolving than others. I am quite skeptical at this point.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was all behind him early this year, and am willing to let young players evolve, but IMO players who have a tendency for boneheadedness and make physical errors under pressure have a lower chance of evolving than others. I am quite skeptical at this point.

 

QFT.

 

I had no desire to see Cedeno fail in any role on this team...I just think we might have to face back that he's not too terribly good.

 

Again, what is the cut off point when a "young player" can be declared somewhat of a bust? I'll happily let him play out the year, but I don't expected to see anything to change my mind.

[SoonerCubFan]

I think the far bigger error in judgement was Dusty moving him to shortstop after starting him at 2nd and trying to get him to switch from being a SS to a 2B for the past 3 weeks. Brenly called him out for that one.

 

Sometimes the Dusty bashing gets a bit overblown. Hendry forces his hand by getting a mediocre hitting, Gold Glove SS and Dusty responds by keeping a young guy playing by switching positions in a lost season, and even then he gets second guessed? And, IMO a Major League player should have no problem with this switch and especially going back to his previous position after just a couple of weeks. I can't believe he's not taking plenty of infield practice at both positions.

[baseball7897]

Good argument, but to me it's not really even these numbers, it's that he's pulled some of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen at the MLB level.

 

Agreed! I can't really remember a SS or 2nd basemen that has made so many poor choice decisions as Cedeno has.

 

I hope people aren't talking about the throw home. That was the right move, he had Burrell by several steps, the throw was just not a good one.

 

The throw home was not a smart choice. If you dont get that runner out at home, your opening youself up for a huge inning. Which in fact happened.

 

I dont have a problem with Cedeno being aggresive, but he should of thrown the ball to the 1B man.

[Milli1306]

i see no problem in Ronny throwing home there...if he makes the throw on target like he probably would the majority of the time, we would instead be talking about what a good play it was...as an infielder myself for many years, i know what he was thinking, it was all instinctive...you don't sit and think, "what if i mess this throw up?" if you do that you've already blown the play...you see the play, you make the throw, and what happens happens...

 

however, i do agree that there are many times this year when he has made some rather boneheaded decisions on throws that even an absolutely perfect rifle to first probably would not have gotten the runner out...where he will try to make the throw and inevitably throw it away...that being said, I do like that he is confident enough in himself that he could make those throws, just not happy that he hasn't yet gotten the idea of when he just needs to put it in his pocket and not try to do too much and impress people...he's playing too much for the big play at times, which makes him make some poor decisions

[Jehrico]

I think the far bigger error in judgement was Dusty moving him to shortstop after starting him at 2nd and trying to get him to switch from being a SS to a 2B for the past 3 weeks. Brenly called him out for that one.

 

Sometimes the Dusty bashing gets a bit overblown. Hendry forces his hand by getting a mediocre hitting, Gold Glove SS and Dusty responds by keeping a young guy playing by switching positions in a lost season, and even then he gets second guessed? And, IMO a Major League player should have no problem with this switch and especially going back to his previous position after just a couple of weeks. I can't believe he's not taking plenty of infield practice at both positions.

 

Didn't Dusty make that decision before the Izturis trade?

[Sammy Sofa]

i see no problem in Ronny throwing home there...if he makes the throw on target like he probably would the majority of the time, we would instead be talking about what a good play it was...as an infielder myself for many years, i know what he was thinking, it was all instinctive...you don't sit and think, "what if i mess this throw up?" if you do that you've already blown the play...you see the play, you make the throw, and what happens happens...

 

however, i do agree that there are many times this year when he has made some rather boneheaded decisions on throws that even an absolutely perfect rifle to first probably would not have gotten the runner out...where he will try to make the throw and inevitably throw it away...that being said, I do like that he is confident enough in himself that he could make those throws, just not happy that he hasn't yet gotten the idea of when he just needs to put it in his pocket and not try to do too much and impress people...he's playing too much for the big play at times, which makes him make some poor decisions

 

OK, we've somehow focused only on his defense here...if necessary, you could paint that in a somewhat positive light because he has had made a number of impressive plays. That said, however, I think his offensive problems far outweigh any positives or negatives with his defense.

[Guest]

I think the interesting question asked in this thread is, "How long do you give a minor leaguer a chance to prove himself at the major league level?"

 

Unfortunately, this is asking for a black and white answer to a question with innumerable shades of gray. What I look for primarily is improvement and the ability to make adjustments. And that's where I'm distressed by Ronnie's performance to date. Here are his BA's by month:

 

APR - .308
MAY - .276
JUN - .234
JUL - .200
AUG - .207

 

That's not a good trendline. Now, his other stats (such as SLG) don't show as clean a downward progression, but I'm still disturbed by his inability to adjust to what pitchers are doing to him this season. If he continues to get weaker through Aug & Sept, then I'd plan on him being nothing more than a utility guy in the future. However, if he can make an adjustment and finish strong, then I'd be more inclined to give him a chance as a starter next year.

 

The only issue with that is that Izturis is going to start at SS if he's on the roster in 2007. And if I have to choose between Murton or Cedeno to be a starter next season, I'm choosing Murton all the way and seeking to improve at second by signing Soriano at whatever cost is required.

[Guest]

For those curious, here are more complete monthly breakdowns:

 

Murton:

 

APR - .286/.368/.442/.809
MAY - .286/.358/.393/.751
JUN - .212/.257/.227/.484
JUL - .360/.421/.440/.861
AUG - .357/.390/.661/1.051

 

 

Cedeno:

 

APR - .308/.341/.474/.816
MAY - .276/.294/.305/.598
JUN - .234/.265/.340/.606
JUL - .200/.217/.250/.467
AUG - .207/.233/.310/.544