The Soccer Thread

[bukie]

It's really not as bad as it could have been. No Italy or Holland, and Portugal can be beaten, as Russia beat them in qualifying and Sweden played them close.

 

Ghana is a better option than Ivory Coast, Italy, or Chile for sure.

 

The travel will suck, though, since Manaus is the middle destination for the US.

[UMFan83]

Funny that the USA draws 2 teams that combined to knock them out of the last 3 World Cups (02 Germany, 06-10 Ghana)

[Guest]

Also, Mexico somehow lucked into a group they have a shot at advancing through. They're teflon.

[shnsajax]

Aron Jóhannsson ‏@aronjo20 1m

 

Sexy group #LetsDoThis

[USSoccer]

[UMFan83]

Grant Wahl says USA will have 9000 miles to travel in their group... worst of any team

[bukie]

USA has a 40% chance of advancement from the group, according to SPI.

[USSoccer]

Monday 6/16 @ 5pm v Ghana at Estadio das Dunas (Natal)

Sunday 6/22 @ 3pm v Portugal at Arena Amazonia (Manuas)

Thursday 6/26 @ 12pm v Germany at Arena Pernambuco (Recife)

 

All times CDT

Edited December 6, 2013 by USSoccer

[bukie]

Here are all the SPI odds, courtesy of Nate Silver: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projections?cc=5901

[USSoccer]

Grant Wahl says USA will have 9000 miles to travel in their group... worst of any team

 

Thankfully our team is used to travelling distances.

[wolf stansson]

Let's do this [expletive], boys. This is doable. No one wants a fuckin group e free ride anyway. We've struggled to put these Klinsmann wins in a real context all these years, now we'll find out where we really stand. For a team that can't win it all, that's what the World Cup is all about.

[UMFan83]

Here are all the SPI odds, courtesy of Nate Silver: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projections?cc=5901

 

Here are all the odds from Silver

 

Brazil 99.6%

Argentina 97.2%

Germany 91.6%

Colombia 86.2%

Spain 82.5%

Belgium 79.2%

France 78.3%

Chile 74.5%

Russia 73.0%

Uruguay 69.4%

Ecuador 64.6%

England 57.6%

Bosnia 52.4%

Ivory Coast 50.2%

Mexico 45.4%

Italy 44.3%

Netherlands 41.0%

Portugal 40.3%

Greece 39.5%

USA 39.4%

Switzerland 36.8%

South Korea 36.7%

Croatia 32.6%

Nigeria 31.5%

Costa Rica 28.7%

Ghana 28.6%

Japan 24.1%

Cameron 22.5%

Honduras 20.3%

Iran 19.0%

Algeria 11.0%

Australia 2.1%

[bukie]

Advancing out of the group all boils down to HAVE TO BEAT GHANA.

 

I'm ok with that.

[USSoccer]

Advancing out of the group all boils down to HAVE TO BEAT GHANA.

 

I'm ok with that.

 

I'm okay with it too. We owe them, and our players know it.

[bukie]

The game order also works out perfectly for the US...so long as Germany comes out of the gates swinging.

[UMFan83]

One more analysis. Each group by the teams' average world ranking:

 

G avg world rank: 11.25

D avg world rank: 14.25

C avg world rank: 20.25

B avg world rank: 21

E avg world rank: 22.75

A avg world rank: 24.25

F avg world rank: 26.25

H avg world rank: 28.25

[Guest]

Advancing out of the group all boils down to HAVE TO BEAT GHANA.

 

I'm ok with that.

 

I'm okay with it too. We owe them, and our players know it.

 

Yep. Absolute must win. Lose or draw that and we might as well just go home.

[bukie]

Group G is apparently the first group in World Cup history where all four teams advanced to the second round in the prior Cup.

[Mark Priors Calves]

Thanks for the last few pages, guys. I was crushed watching the draw, but I think it's not unreasonable to advance. The travel sucks, hopefully the weather is moderate.

 

Agreed on defeating Ghana. If Germany gets 3 on Portugal that's a mixed bag: Germany might have qualified by the final group match, but Portugal will be desperate for points in playing the US the in second match.

[Mark Priors Calves]

Saturday 6/21 @ 3pm v Portugal at Arena Amazonia (Manuas)

All times CDT

This match is on Sunday, June 22nd.

[USSoccer]

Saturday 6/21 @ 3pm v Portugal at Arena Amazonia (Manuas)

All times CDT

This match is on Sunday, June 22nd.

 

Yeah, I screwed that up. Fixed.

 

6 days between game 1 and 2, and 4 between 2 and 3. That works.

[wolf stansson]

Sunderland v Spurs tomorrow on NBCS and at a time that allows me to still sleep late. Nice!

[UMFan83]

Thanks for the last few pages, guys. I was crushed watching the draw, but I think it's not unreasonable to advance. The travel sucks, hopefully the weather is moderate.

 

Agreed on defeating Ghana. If Germany gets 3 on Portugal that's a mixed bag: Germany might have qualified by the final group match, but Portugal will be desperate for points in playing the US the in second match.

 

I'd rather Portugal be desperate for points in the 2nd game than Germany needing points in the 3rd game against us.

[Guest]

Thanks for the last few pages, guys. I was crushed watching the draw, but I think it's not unreasonable to advance. The travel sucks, hopefully the weather is moderate.

 

Agreed on defeating Ghana. If Germany gets 3 on Portugal that's a mixed bag: Germany might have qualified by the final group match, but Portugal will be desperate for points in playing the US the in second match.

 

Agreed. I felt worse until reading this thread.

[USSoccer]

Basically, Germany are going to win those first two games. We want Germany winning those first two games by as many goals as possible.

 

Getting Portugal into a negative goal difference off the bat will be huge. We want Portugal to go into our game with them needing a win. That game is in a stadium literally in the fricking jungle at 2pm. It's going to be a 90 degrees with 90% humidity, and it'll probably rain. That slows that game down.

 

We have six months to prep for a team that isn't as good as they were four years ago, when we nearly beat them with an exhausted team starting Robbie Findley and Rico Clark.

 

Beat Ghana. Draw Portugal. Go into the 3rd match with 4 points and goal differential on your side and you probably advance so long as Germany doesn't blast us into oblivion-but them winning their first two games means they probably won't be going balls out in the third.

 

That's how we advance. W-D-DontGetCrushed.

 

Against Ghana: Midfield must control tempo. Our backline must make fewer mistakes than theirs. We do that, we win.

 

Against Portugal: Shut Moutinho down. He's the engine. Do that, and you shut down CR7's supply line. He gets frustrated. When he gets frustrated against competent opposition, he tries to win the game 1v10. Keep our shape. Don't get pulled out of position. We do that, we can get a result

 

Against Germany: Don't go into that game needing to win.