Harvey

[snoodmonger]

I know there had been talk (at least here) of converting him to a pitcher. Is that a real possibility right now or just speculation? If so, how many more seasons of sub-par hitting until they try and make that switch?

[UBlink]

Why on earth do people continue to bash Ryan Harvey? He is second in the FSL in home runs (19) second in RBI (77) and is hitting .253 this season. While the average isn't all that impressive, keep in mind that the Florida State League is considered by many as a "pitchers league." It is the same league thay Ryan Howard hit 23 homers in and drove in 83 on his way to being an MVP candidate. It is the same league that Derek Jeter committed 39 errors in on his way to gold gloves.

 

Ryan Harvey is ONLY 21 years old, and is making a push toward Double-A as we speak. How does the best power hitter in the league not have numbers to warrent such a promotion? Also remember that with the weather in Fla., bats usually cool down in July/August not heat up like Harvey's has done. Ryan Howard made his MLB debeut at 26, that mean's 21-year olds like Harvey still have a lot of time. You'd be foolish to give up on him now...

 

You can't call a league in the minors a pitchers league based on historical stats, as all of those pitchers that made it that way have been promoted.

 

Also for every Jeter, there are 99 other guys who commit that many errors and never make it past AA. Same with Howard.

 

I agree that there's too much bashing going on with Harvey, but I also agree that if he wants to become a productive major leaguer, he seriously needs to learn alot more patience. While he recent performance is pleasing, there's still alot of opportunity for growth that needs to take place before he gets his superstar prospect status back.

 

This year, the PCL has 12 hitters with OPS over 890.

The Southern League has 1.

The FSL has none.

The MWL has 3.

 

I think it's safe to say the FSL is still a pitchers' league.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I know there had been talk (at least here) of converting him to a pitcher. Is that a real possibility right now or just speculation? If so, how many more seasons of sub-par hitting until they try and make that switch?

 

After Ryan's hot July and August, that won't happen till at least midway through 2008. I'm sure he's earned a few chances at AA in the Cubs' eyes now. It was more of talk here anyways, but even if Ryan had continued to hit .200, I don't think he'd have converted after this season.

[TruffleShuffle]

Why on earth do people continue to bash Ryan Harvey?

 

.285 OBP this year could have something to do with it. Or the 350 strikeouts in 300 minor league games. He makes Juan Pierre look like an on-base machine.

[Laura]

 

Harvey's turnaround has been dramatic.

 

I've never seen that site before, thanks.

 

It's the new home for the former brewerfan.net splits -- they get all the credit. :) I just hope they can maintain the access to that data.

[CubsWin]

Harvey's BB/K rate continues to be horrid during his hot stretch, which is very disappointing.

In July, yes, it was absolutley horrid. But not so in August. Its probably just happenstance due to the small sample size (64 PAs), but through August 17th, Harvey's walked 5 times and struckout 12 times. That's a walk every 13 PAs. Still not that great, but it is a definite improvement over any other month this season and last.

 

It is too early to say with any certainty, but the possibility remains that the shorter swing and improved ability to make solid contact on a consistent basis is not only leading to a momentarily higher BABIP, but also greater confidence at the plate and thus less anxiety to succeed. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that if you are less anxious to get a hit, you will be more selective at the plate. But the question remains, how long can he maintain his new found confidence and possible selectivity. If his history has anything to say about it, not very long.

 

Again, the sample size is still too small to draw any conclusions, but it certainly is worth tracking.

 

For the record, Since July 1st, Harvey is batting .339/.366/.641/1.007 with 7 BBs and 41 Ks in 153 ABs. Since August 1st, he is batting .397/.438/.638/1.076 with 5 BBs and 12 Ks in 58 ABs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

While listening to Daytona's game today, one of their announcers said Harvey had been much more patient lately and was showing more plate discipline.

[CubsWin]

While listening to Daytona's game today, one of their announcers said Harvey had been much more patient lately and was showing more plate discipline.

And now there is anecdotal evidence as well. :lol:

 

Certainly good to hear, but I'll wait to see how long he can keep this up. At least, the rather ridiculous talk of turning him into a pitcher can cease for a while. I agree he was bad, really bad at that time, but at his age and with his athletic ability, it was simply too early to give up on him like that.

[phildouglas7]

Harvey's batting average is now up to .256. That is exactly one point lower than it ended at one year ago in a MUCH easier hitting league and I never read anybody talking about how Harvey was struggling then.

 

Also, I think it's funny when people say that the numbers are enflated because he's been hot as of late. Well, the as of late part is irrelevent as the time he has been hot is still considered this 2006 season. Harv's batting almost .350 over the last seven weeks yet people continue to doubt the golden-haired child.

[texascub]

Harvey's batting average is now up to .256. That is exactly one point lower than it ended at one year ago in a MUCH easier hitting league and I never read anybody talking about how Harvey was struggling then.

 

Also, I think it's funny when people say that the numbers are enflated because he's been hot as of late. Well, the as of late part is irrelevent as the time he has been hot is still considered this 2006 season. Harv's batting almost .350 over the last seven weeks yet people continue to doubt the golden-haired child.

 

His BABIP is unsustainable right now though. Over the last 3 months it's been June- .333, July- .351, August- .444 (through the 15th). I hope that he succeeds as much as you do, but there is no way he can maintain this right now. If he only slows down slightly when his BABIP comes back to earth, I'll be quite happy but I don't think it's likely his production will stay up.

[Warpticon]

Harvey's batting average is now up to .256. That is exactly one point lower than it ended at one year ago in a MUCH easier hitting league and I never read anybody talking about how Harvey was struggling then.

 

People were definitely down on him due to his horrid walk/k rate. And average isn't everything. If he was putting up .256 and getting on base at a respectable clip, there'd be a lot less concern. The combination of not walking and striking out tons translates to difficulty advancing and poor projection. Not saying that's how things will definitely go by a long shot--he's only 21, but concern over Harvey's horrible peripherals certainly didn't just arise this year.

 

Also, I think it's funny when people say that the numbers are enflated because he's been hot as of late. Well, the as of late part is irrelevent as the time he has been hot is still considered this 2006 season. Harv's batting almost .350 over the last seven weeks yet people continue to doubt the golden-haired child.

 

It's not just that he's been hot of late. he sucked a lot longer than he's been dominant--he's just been THAT dominant. His strikeout rate has increased, his bb/k rate has increased, his slg and isolated power have fallen. There's still time to change that, but if he hadn't been SO bad for most of the seaosn, it's likely people wouldn't be that concerned that he's just riding a hot streak, and that the real Harvey is closer to what he's been doing all season.

 

Personally, I'm going to wait and see. I'd like to see him repeat the level next year. if he continues tearing it up, he can always be promoted midseason. If he's seriously working on his plate discipline, he'll probably more easily establish good habits against lesser pitchers. he'll be less likely to get frustrated and fall into old habits. That would be good for his development, i believe.

[Outshined_One]

As of August 15th...

 

Overall (AVG/OBP/SLG): .246/.281/.430

 

Harvey's BABIP by the month:

 

April: .184

May: .217

June: .333

July: .351

August: .444

 

Harvey's offensive numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) by the month:

 

April: .179/.238/.385

May: .167/.224/.211

June: .257/.265/.396

July: .305/.327/.642

August: .360/.400/.560

 

Park Adjusted (AVG/OBP/SLG): .237/.275/.397

 

If you want more, go here.

 

He was victimized by bad luck earlier in the season, but I'm just seeing red flags galore with his numbers. A guy at High A with his numbers (especially plate discipline) just screams red flags galore.

 

Let's face it, he hasn't lived up to his billing at the 6th overall pick in a draft that featured some of the best young players and prospects in baseball today. At the rate things are going, I don't think that is going to change.

[craig]

...It is too early to say with any certainty, but the possibility remains that the shorter swing and improved ability to make solid contact on a consistent basis is not only leading to a momentarily higher BABIP, but also greater confidence at the plate and thus less anxiety to succeed. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that if you are less anxious to get a hit, you will be more selective at the plate. But the question remains, how long can he maintain his new found confidence and possible selectivity. If his history has anything to say about it, not very long.

....

 

I think this is an excellent point.

 

I think a lot of low-walk guys don't walk because they are afraid of 2-strike counts. They know they stink with 2-strike counts, and K a lot. Solution? Don't let the count get to 2 strikes, and expand your strikezone already on 1- and 0-strike counts.

 

But sometimes, if something happens so that a dude's contact ability does increase, his confidence that he can live with some 2-strike counts increases. And when that happens, he may be more patient and disciplined earlier in the count.

 

One side of the coin is the view that from good patience, you swing at good pitches and hit them better. Plate discipline is the chicken, better hitting is the egg. I'm suggesting that the reverse can also apply; when you're hitting better, you may be more willing to be more patient.

[Outshined_One]

One side of the coin is the view that from good patience, you swing at good pitches and hit them better. Plate discipline is the chicken, better hitting is the egg. I'm suggesting that the reverse can also apply; when you're hitting better, you may be more willing to be more patient.

 

I think you have to be very careful with that line of thinking. While confidence can definitely help a hitter's approach at the plate, overconfidence can be a killer. If you go up to the plate every time with the mentality that you're getting a hit on the first seemingly good pitch you see, that will lead to plenty of swings at bad pitches resulting in strikes or outs.

 

By the way, I'll probably have my rebuttal up in the EPatt thread in the next few days. :P

[craig]

One side of the coin is the view that from good patience, you swing at good pitches and hit them better. Plate discipline is the chicken, better hitting is the egg. I'm suggesting that the reverse can also apply; when you're hitting better, you may be more willing to be more patient.

 

I think you have to be very careful with that line of thinking. While confidence can definitely help a hitter's approach at the plate, overconfidence can be a killer. If you go up to the plate every time with the mentality that you're getting a hit on the first seemingly good pitch you see, that will lead to plenty of swings at bad pitches resulting in strikes or outs.

 

By the way, I'll probably have my rebuttal up in the EPatt thread in the next few days. :P

 

While your point is true, it is exactly contrary to the point I was making.

 

My point is simple: If I'm scared of 2 strike-counts, I might be swinging at the 1-strike pitch 4-inches off the plate, rather than put myself in that 2-strike hole where I know I so consistently fail (and often end up swining at stuff 10 inches off the plate...).

 

If I'm confident, I'll take the one strike pitch 4 inches or 1 inch off the plate; I might even take the pitch that I know will be a strike but is not in the power zone I'm looking for. It takes confidence to let yourself get into a 2-strike count. But that's what patient hitters often do.

 

If you look at big-league stats, there is a very severe drop in productivity (BA, slugging) from 0-strike to 1-strike to 2-strike counts. Big league hitters as a whole do much worse with 2-strikes on them than with fewer, for obvious reasons.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think we can get anywhere talking about the fear of the 2-strike count and getting over that fear. Harvey is a free swinger. He's employed by a team that preaches an overly aggressive approach. He's not going to suddenly turn into a patient hitter.

[WrigleyField 22]

...It is too early to say with any certainty, but the possibility remains that the shorter swing and improved ability to make solid contact on a consistent basis is not only leading to a momentarily higher BABIP, but also greater confidence at the plate and thus less anxiety to succeed. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that if you are less anxious to get a hit, you will be more selective at the plate. But the question remains, how long can he maintain his new found confidence and possible selectivity. If his history has anything to say about it, not very long.

....

 

I think this is an excellent point.

 

I think a lot of low-walk guys don't walk because they are afraid of 2-strike counts. They know they stink with 2-strike counts, and K a lot. Solution? Don't let the count get to 2 strikes, and expand your strikezone already on 1- and 0-strike counts.

 

But sometimes, if something happens so that a dude's contact ability does increase, his confidence that he can live with some 2-strike counts increases. And when that happens, he may be more patient and disciplined earlier in the count.

 

One side of the coin is the view that from good patience, you swing at good pitches and hit them better. Plate discipline is the chicken, better hitting is the egg. I'm suggesting that the reverse can also apply; when you're hitting better, you may be more willing to be more patient.

 

Another way to look at it is that in some instances, if a player is hot enough pitchers are really gonna start laying off and not putting anything near the strike zone. Its possible pitchers are throwing such bad balls not even Harvey would swing at.

 

I think all of those things go into the equation of plate discipline, but the biggest thing is that you have to first have good plate discipline.

[craig]

Another way to look at it is that in some instances, if a player is hot enough pitchers are really gonna start laying off and not putting anything near the strike zone. Its possible pitchers are throwing such bad balls not even Harvey would swing at.

 

Very true!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

While listening to Daytona's game today, one of their announcers said Harvey had been much more patient lately and was showing more plate discipline.

 

He needs to be more patient. He can't hit his way on base.

[CubsWin]

While listening to Daytona's game today, one of their announcers said Harvey had been much more patient lately and was showing more plate discipline.

 

He needs to be more patient. He can't hit his way on base.

Wait a second, which one is it? He can't walk his way on base and he can't hit his way on base? Neither have been true in the month of August so far, and he has been able to hit his way on base pretty darn effectively over his last 200 ABs.

 

He is far from out of the woods, and he needs to keep improving his ability to not swing at bad pitches. Doing so for only half a month isn't nearly good enough.

 

But if it is true that the adjustment he made with his swing, back in June I believe, is resulting in an improved ability to make more solid contact then he is a more dangerous hitter. This can only lead to good things. Pitchers giving him less to hit may continue to result in more walks. When pitchers do challenge him or make a mistake, Harvey seems to be consistently getting on base via the hit due to the shortened swing.

 

So, over his last 200 ABs, he is definitely hitting his way on base and that might be resulting in him walking more often, too.

[CubsWin]

As of August 15th...

 

Overall (AVG/OBP/SLG): .246/.281/.430

 

Harvey's BABIP by the month:

 

April: .184

May: .217

June: .333

July: .351

August: .444

 

He was victimized by bad luck earlier in the season, but I'm just seeing red flags galore with his numbers. A guy at High A with his numbers (especially plate discipline) just screams red flags galore.

 

Let's face it, he hasn't lived up to his billing at the 6th overall pick in a draft that featured some of the best young players and prospects in baseball today. At the rate things are going, I don't think that is going to change.

He certainly hasn't lived up to his billing as the 6th overall pick, thats for sure. But at the rate things are going, they are changing.

 

I can understand how variations of 40 or 50 points in BABIP each month can be chalked up to luck. But Harvey's BABIP numbers have jumped so much that to say that he was merely unlucky in the beginning of the season and is simply getting lucky now is a little hard to support logically.

 

It is far more logical to conclude that he also was hitting the ball weakly in April and May and is now making much better and stronger contact. Even if he hadn't shortened his swing, we would have to assume that he is, for some reason, hitting the ball better. But when you factor in the news of his swing adjustment and then the fact that he gets hot right after making the adjustment it becomes increasingly hard to believe that a 150-200+ point jump in BABIP is due solely to how the ball is bouncing that month.

 

His increase in BABIP is certainly unsustainable at its current level, but it is too big of a jump, too consistent and too well-timed with his swing adjustment to not be in part a result of an improved approach at the plate. A shorter swing likely leads to less head movement and better balance. Each of those can result in better pitch recognition during the swing and thus crisper contact. Crisper contact means a harder hit ball.

 

Whether it is hit on the ground, on a line or in the air, a harder hit ball gets through holes faster, finds the gap easier and travels furthur through the air. His swing adjustment has resulted in an increase in power as well. Is it just due to luck that 12 of Ryan Harvey's flyballs have gone over the fence since July 1st?

 

Your argument seems to be saying that Harvey's improved numbers were a mirage due to his increased BABIP and that luck is the only factor that affects that statistic. I agree to an extent, but a consistent improvement in BABIP immediately following a swing adjustment can't only be happenstance. Harvey is doing something to cause his BABIP numbers to jump and stay up as they have. He can't sustain what has been happening thus far in August, but June and July aren't too far out of the realm of possibility, certainly for a hot streak.

Edited August 19, 2006 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

From July 1st through August 18th:

 

.344/.370/.637/1.007 with 7 BBs/41 Ks in 157 ABs (165 PAs)

 

From August 1st through August 18th:

 

.403/.441/.629/1.070 with 5 BBs/12 Ks in 62 ABs (68 PAs)

 

On the year, Harvey is hitting .259 with an absolutely horrible OBP. He is tied for 1st in HRs and is 2nd in RBI in the FSL. However, with a minimum of 2.7 PAs per team game required, Ryan ranks 10th worst in OBP, meaning only 9 guys have worse OBPs than him. But again, its been a different story lately. Here's hoping he can write the next chapter...

[Warpticon]

Whether it is hit on the ground, on a line or in the air, a harder hit ball gets through holes faster, finds the gap easier and travels furthur through the air. His swing adjustment has resulted in an increase in power as well. Is it just due to luck that 12 of Ryan Harvey's flyballs have gone over the fence since July 1st? That will increase BABIP, too.

 

No, it won't. Home runs are not balls in play; they are not counted in BABIP. The only way you can really try to justify that statement is by saying that fly balls that would have been outs have been leaving the park, reducing the number of outs on balls in play and increasing his BABIP artificially--and that's quite a stretch. More consistent power does offset a low natural BABIP a lot, though. If he can hit a higher number of balls out of play, he won't need to sustain a high BABIP to be productive so much.

[CubsWin]

Whether it is hit on the ground, on a line or in the air, a harder hit ball gets through holes faster, finds the gap easier and travels furthur through the air. His swing adjustment has resulted in an increase in power as well. Is it just due to luck that 12 of Ryan Harvey's flyballs have gone over the fence since July 1st? That will increase BABIP, too.

 

No, it won't. Home runs are not balls in play; they are not counted in BABIP. The only way you can really try to justify that statement is by saying that fly balls that would have been outs have been leaving the park, reducing the number of outs on balls in play and increasing his BABIP artificially--and that's quite a stretch. More consistent power does offset a low natural BABIP a lot, though. If he can hit a higher number of balls out of play, he won't need to sustain a high BABIP to be productive so much.

Wow, I had no idea that a HR isn't considered in play. Thanks for the heads up. I guess it does impact it slightly by reducing the number of potential fly ball outs, but, you're right, it wouldn't do so in any dramatic fashion. I'll change my previous post to reflect this correction.

 

Regardless, the consistent rise in Harvey's BABIP can't be due solely to luck when it is so closely linked with the change in his swing. He won't maintain what he is doing this month BABIP-wise, but June and July aren't that out of whack.

[snoodmonger]

Out of curiousity, what is an average BABIP and what is considered unsustainable?