Orioles-Phillies Rumor

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

Just to throw it out there.....Trot Nixon

 

Nixon: (2006)283AB--AVG .304 | HR 6 | RBI 44 | OBP .407 | SLG .438

(career) .281/.369/.485

 

Abreu: (2006)310AB--AVG .287 | HR 8 | RBI 62 | OBP .438 | SLG .452

(career) .302/.413/.508

 

Nixon is a free agent and would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Abreu is exactly one month older so age makes no difference in this case.

 

Edit to fix a stat.

Edited July 19, 2006 by RonnieWooWooSanto

[Geech]

Just to throw it out there.....Trot Nixon

 

Nixon: (2006)283AB--AVG .304 | HR 6 | RBI 44 | OBP .407 | SLG .438

(career) .281/.369/.485

 

Abreu: (2006)310--AVG .287 | HR 8 | RBI 62 | OBP .438 | SLG .452

(career) .302/.413/.508

 

Nixon is a free agent and would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Abreu is exactly one month older so age makes no difference in this case.

 

Nixon really isn't in the same leage as Abreu. Even if Abreu's drop in power is permanent, his OBP is still tons better than Nixon.

[soccer10k]

I would love it if the Cubs got Burrell. He's had one bad year (2003) but other than that he has been a good hitter for his career.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Just to throw it out there.....Trot Nixon

 

Nixon: (2006)283AB--AVG .304 | HR 6 | RBI 44 | OBP .407 | SLG .438

(career) .281/.369/.485

 

Abreu: (2006)310--AVG .287 | HR 8 | RBI 62 | OBP .438 | SLG .452

(career) .302/.413/.508

 

Nixon is a free agent and would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Abreu is exactly one month older so age makes no difference in this case.

 

Nixon really isn't in the same leage as Abreu. Even if Abreu's drop in power is permanent, his OBP is still tons better than Nixon.

 

I agree in that regard, but there is also a big difference in cost.

 

Nixon currently makes 6.5 mil a year and Abreu makes 13 mil this year and 15 mil for next year. On top of that, Abreu expects to be compensated for waiving his NTC. And I'm assuming the Phillies will expect the team that acquires him to cover that fee at least some of it.

[sherwood921]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

And why do the Cubs need to go the cheap route?

[CP_414]

On ESPN's Rumor Line just now, they were saying that if the Brewers can move CLEE then they may be looking to trade Abreu. A 3-way trade between the Cubs, Brewers, and Phillies might work out nicely.

 

Doug Melvin laughed off rumors of Abreu to Milwaukee earlier in the week. He said he has not even had a conversation with Pat Gillick. The Brewers can't afford Lee, I don't see how they can pay Abreu.

[jmajew]

Why don't the Cubs just trade for the entire Philly outfield for Aramis, Pierre, Rich Hill, and Jerome Williams. Walker, Barrett, Abreu, Lee, Burrell, Hillenbrand (now that he was released), Rowand, Cedeno.

 

Just a thought.

[UMFan83]

Why don't the Cubs just trade for the entire Philly outfield for Aramis, Pierre, Rich Hill, and Jerome Williams. Walker, Barrett, Abreu, Lee, Burrell, Hillenbrand (now that he was released), Rowand, Cedeno.

 

Just a thought.

 

I'm in.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Why don't the Cubs just trade for the entire Philly outfield for Aramis, Pierre, Rich Hill, and Jerome Williams. Walker, Barrett, Abreu, Lee, Burrell, Hillenbrand (now that he was released), Rowand, Cedeno.

 

Just a thought.

 

as long as we can spin off Rowand for ANYONE

 

 

I really hate him......just a personal thing tho

[NorthsideAvenger]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

How about Cliff Floyd?

 

I wasn't going mention anybody imparticular, but I decided to. At this point in Abreu's career he is SIMPLY not worth $15 mill dollar for a couple of yrs, no matter how good his OBP is. If the Cubs would do their homework (which I seriously doubt :roll: ) they could find more cost-effeficent (sp?) players with similar offensive skillset as Abreu.

[goonys evil twin]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

How about Cliff Floyd?

 

I wasn't going mention anybody imparticular, but I decided to. At this point in Abreu's career he is SIMPLY not worth $15 mill dollar for a couple of yrs, no matter how good his OBP is. If the Cubs would do their homework (which I seriously doubt :roll: ) they could find more cost-effeficent (sp?) players with similar offensive skillset as Abreu.

 

Floyd isn't in Abreu's class.

[jjgman21]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

How about Cliff Floyd?

 

I wasn't going mention anybody imparticular, but I decided to. At this point in Abreu's career he is SIMPLY not worth $15 mill dollar for a couple of yrs, no matter how good his OBP is. If the Cubs would do their homework (which I seriously doubt :roll: ) they could find more cost-effeficent (sp?) players with similar offensive skillset as Abreu.

 

Floyd isn't in Abreu's class.

 

I don't particularly want Floyd unless its a sweatheart, incentive ladden deal. but in 2007, Abreu won't be in Abreu's class either, and the margin of difference between he and Floyd certainly would not be worth the money.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't particularly want Floyd unless its a sweatheart, incentive ladden deal. but in 2007, Abreu won't be in Abreu's class either, and the margin of difference between he and Floyd certainly would not be worth the money.

 

By the sounds of things, you can get Abreu for next to nothing, and not even have to pay all of this salary. It sounds like Philly wants the other team to pay most. And I'm betting Abreu approves any deal if the team exercises the option. So, it's 2/31 (probably minus a couple million) for a guy that always plays 150+ games, and consistently puts up .400+ OBP. Floyd on the other hand is much less consistent, 1.5 years older, injury prone, and significantly less productive (especially in the OBP department). As a free agent, he could probably negotiate his way into a 3 year deal, not to mention, cause the Cubs to give up draft picks if Mets offer arby (sure, picks aren't that big of a deal, but they do count when weighing your options).

 

Abreu is better and younger. Sure he's more expensive, but the one thing the Cubs do have is money to spend on guys. I'd much rather make a trade today, guaranteeing you get your guy for 2 years, than wait for November to negotiate with a dozen other teams that might want Floyd. The Cubs don't have the option of missing out on the offensive upgrade. If they have a chance to lock into some talent now, they have to do it. Waiting for free agency would be a huge mistake.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I wonder if Philly would do this deal: Abreu for Williams and Harvey with the Cubs picking up most if not all of the salary?

 

I would jump at doing that deal if I'm the Cubs.

[goonys evil twin]

I wonder if Philly would do this deal: Abreu for Williams and Harvey with the Cubs picking up most if not all of the salary?

 

I would jump at doing that deal if I'm the Cubs.

 

No doubt. At the very least you offset the potential loss of Ramirez. And you should be locking offensive upgrades for 2007. They should still be able to sign a decent role player, as well as some pitching.

[Magnetic Curses]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

How about Cliff Floyd?

 

I wasn't going mention anybody imparticular, but I decided to. At this point in Abreu's career he is SIMPLY not worth $15 mill dollar for a couple of yrs, no matter how good his OBP is. If the Cubs would do their homework (which I seriously doubt :roll: ) they could find more cost-effeficent (sp?) players with similar offensive skillset as Abreu.

 

Floyd isn't in Abreu's class.

 

I don't particularly want Floyd unless its a sweatheart, incentive ladden deal. but in 2007, Abreu won't be in Abreu's class either, and the margin of difference between he and Floyd certainly would not be worth the money.

 

and yet abreu's OBP is the highest it's been since 99, and his OPS is up from last season.

 

he's 32! he's got plenty of time left in the majors.

[goonys evil twin]

Right now, if the Cubs want to find more players in tune with the OBP, they can find cheaper alternatives to Abreu.

 

Who?

 

Just to throw it out there.....Trot Nixon

 

Nixon: (2006)283AB--AVG .304 | HR 6 | RBI 44 | OBP .407 | SLG .438

(career) .281/.369/.485

 

Abreu: (2006)310AB--AVG .287 | HR 8 | RBI 62 | OBP .438 | SLG .452

(career) .302/.413/.508

 

Nixon is a free agent and would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Abreu is exactly one month older so age makes no difference in this case.

 

Edit to fix a stat.

 

Nixon is a platoon player with a 120 career OPS+. Expose him to more lefties and his numbers plummet. Bobby is an everyday guy with a career OPS+ of 138. If you want to play Nixon in left and platoon him with Murton, fine, but then you still got a platoon guy in right with Jones. Get Abreu and he plays everyday, then Murton can spell Jones against lefties. Big difference here.

[jjgman21]

I don't particularly want Floyd unless its a sweatheart, incentive ladden deal. but in 2007, Abreu won't be in Abreu's class either, and the margin of difference between he and Floyd certainly would not be worth the money.

 

By the sounds of things, you can get Abreu for next to nothing, and not even have to pay all of this salary. It sounds like Philly wants the other team to pay most. And I'm betting Abreu approves any deal if the team exercises the option. So, it's 2/31 (probably minus a couple million) for a guy that always plays 150+ games, and consistently puts up .400+ OBP. Floyd on the other hand is much less consistent, 1.5 years older, injury prone, and significantly less productive (especially in the OBP department). As a free agent, he could probably negotiate his way into a 3 year deal, not to mention, cause the Cubs to give up draft picks if Mets offer arby (sure, picks aren't that big of a deal, but they do count when weighing your options).

 

Abreu is better and younger. Sure he's more expensive, but the one thing the Cubs do have is money to spend on guys. I'd much rather make a trade today, guaranteeing you get your guy for 2 years, than wait for November to negotiate with a dozen other teams that might want Floyd. The Cubs don't have the option of missing out on the offensive upgrade. If they have a chance to lock into some talent now, they have to do it. Waiting for free agency would be a huge mistake.

 

I don't want this to come off as sounding like I advocate Floyd, but I don't think alot of what you say is accurrate. first, if I am not mistaken, signing Floyd will not cost any draft picks as this wouldn't be his first time declaring free agency. second, I don't think he gets a three year deal because of the reasons you listed, plus his down year, even though he is heating up. third, I don't think a dozen teams will be chasing him. fourth, most indications up until this thread is that the Phillies want alot for Abreu without paying any salary. fifth, Abreu's production is sure to continue to decline as does just about every other player in major league history who starts to fall off in his 30's (the only thing propping up his OPS this year is a walk rate incongruous to his admittedly outstanding career norm IsoD). sixth, even though Abreu will more than likely be more productive, he won't be 9 million dollars more productive. the Cubs have money to spend, but not unlimited money. getting Abreu virtually guarantees resigning Pierre for center, which, barring any other trades, means spending spending around 50M on 5 positions (1B, RF, CF, 3B, C).

 

I simply don't want this team to be in the position the Cardinals and Padres are in, spending 15M per on a mid-30's outfielder who has an OPS around .800 and that is a very real possibility with Abreu. I also don't think you need to have a traditionally productive player out of a traditionally productive position simply because that is how things have been done traditionally. there are other, more efficient ways to get production out of this team.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't want this to come off as sounding like I advocate Floyd, but I don't think alot of what you say is accurrate. first, if I am not mistaken, signing Floyd will not cost any draft picks as this wouldn't be his first time declaring free agency.

 

Never heard anything like that before.

 

second, I don't think he gets a three year deal because of the reasons you listed, plus his down year, even though he is heating up. third, I don't think a dozen teams will be chasing him.

 

The point is you never know. If the option is locking in production now, or hoping you can sign lesser production later, why hesitate? To save a few bucks? Hendry has never shown an ability to use the money he saves by not going after stars to efficiently fill other positions.

 

fourth, most indications up until this thread is that the Phillies want alot for Abreu without paying any salary. fifth, Abreu's production is sure to continue to decline as does just about every other player in major league history who starts to fall off in his 30's (the only thing propping up his OPS this year is a walk rate incongruous to his admittedly outstanding career norm IsoD). sixth, even though Abreu will more than likely be more productive, he won't be 9 million dollars more productive. the Cubs have money to spend, but not unlimited money. getting Abreu virtually guarantees resigning Pierre for center, which, barring any other trades, means spending spending around 50M on 5 positions (1B, RF, CF, 3B, C).

 

I don't see how Pierre and Abreu relate. All this talk about Abreu declining, yet Floyd has always been worse, and he's 1.5 years older and he's much more injury prone. Abreu consistently plays full seasons, consistently puts up an OBP of .400+, is consistently better than Floyd and is younger.

 

 

I simply don't want this team to be in the position the Cardinals and Padres are in, spending 15M per on a mid-30's outfielder who has an OPS around .800 and that is a very real possibility with Abreu. I also don't think you need to have a traditionally productive player out of a traditionally productive position simply because that is how things have been done traditionally. there are other, more efficient ways to get production out of this team.

 

Heaven forbid they get in the Cardinals position. I'd much rather overspend for a really good player, then spread it around on a bunch of medioicrities. Are there more efficient ways to spend the money? Certainly. But in order to do it you needs lots of things to fall your way. Passing on Abreu because you might be able to sign Floyd in the offseason is a terrible risk. There's no upside, but plenty of downside. There's upside to Abreu, plenty of it. He could easily put up .400+ OBP the next 2 years and provide decent SLG, all while playing every day. And this team can afford him. It's not like it would be Abreu or nobody.

 

The Cubs aren't in a position where they can just wait and see what is available. There is going to be very little talent out there this offseason. They suck at the free agency game. If you can trade for guaranteed production now, without giving up a motherload in terms of talent in return, you have to make that move.

[jjgman21]

 

Never heard anything like that before.

 

I thought that players who already declared FA in their career were not subject to the draft pick rules, but obviously I am wrong, see Damon and Gordon last year. I could swear there is some rule involving signing FAs who have been FAs before. even so, with the outfield the Mets currently have on the roster and in the minors (Beltran, Milledge, Nady, Chavez, the guys who killed us in 2004) I doubt they offer Floyd arb. they will probably need their dollars for pitching.

 

The point is you never know. If the option is locking in production now, or hoping you can sign lesser production later, why hesitate? To save a few bucks? Hendry has never shown an ability to use the money he saves by not going after stars to efficiently fill other positions.

 

you hesitate because Abreu is not the sure thing he is being made out to be.

 

I don't see how Pierre and Abreu relate. All this talk about Abreu declining, yet Floyd has always been worse, and he's 1.5 years older and he's much more injury prone. Abreu consistently plays full seasons, consistently puts up an OBP of .400+, is consistently better than Floyd and is younger.

 

if your deadline deals concentrate on RF, you still have a hole in center next year. Hendry's approach would most certainly be to go after Pierre.

 

 

Heaven forbid they get in the Cardinals position.

 

why must you always deconxtualize, reframe, and raise the rhetoric? if you think paying 15M/year for average production is a good contract for the Cubs to be stuck with, fine, envy the Cardinals.

 

I'd much rather overspend for a really good player

 

the point is, you never know, and all indications are Abreu will not be "really good" much longer. as you indicated in another thread recently, I'd rather not overspend for anybody, but I will take it a bit further and not qualify that statement with "really good players" or "difference makers" especially with compelling evidence that the player will not necessarily be "really good" or a "difference maker" in 2007-08.

 

then spread it around on a bunch of medioicrities. Are there more efficient ways to spend the money? Certainly. But in order to do it you needs lots of things to fall your way.

 

as I presented in another thread, with the trading chips the Cubs have right now and so many teams in contention, I don't think reshaping this team into an annual contender for the next five years would take all that much.

 

Passing on Abreu because you might be able to sign Floyd in the offseason is a terrible risk. There's no upside, but plenty of downside. There's upside to Abreu, plenty of it. He could easily put up .400+ OBP the next 2 years and provide decent SLG, all while playing every day. And this team can afford him. It's not like it would be Abreu or nobody.

 

I believe no team can afford 15M/year for a guy who doesn't put up monster slugging. for that reason, getting Abreu is a huge risk. if high obp/ave slg is the goal, isn't there a much better way to go about getting it?

 

 

The Cubs aren't in a position where they can just wait and see what is available. There is going to be very little talent out there this offseason. They suck at the free agency game. If you can trade for guaranteed production now, without giving up a motherload in terms of talent in return, you have to make that move.

 

I think these next 10 days are critical for the future of the ballclub. but even so, if the deal isn't right for the short and long term of the team, you don't make it just because it is possible and makes things easier. if that is the case, and I think it is, waiting and seeing may be the better option. this isn't the best FA class ever, but by all accounts there will be plenty of outfield options available in FA.

 

one of Hendry's few strengths is not making the big dollar mistake. If we are stuck with Hendry, I'd like to see him continue with the one thing he's done pretty well.

[goonys evil twin]

Characterizing Abreu's production as average is unfair.

 

You could move Jones to cf pretty easily where his production would be much great than anybody else you could find. An OF of Murton, Jones, Abreu could be pretty good next year, certainly much better than what they've had the past two years.

 

Bobby pretty much guarantees a .400+ OBP. He won't SLG you to death, but he won't kill you there either. There is very little out there that is more attractive, with the biggest name like Carlos Lee, who is less productive but will probably get much more money. Floyd is older and less of a player. Not to mention you'd have to hope you get him in free agency, not a good bet with Hendry around.

 

Jim may have stayed away from big money mistakes. But his biggest big money mistakes is staying away from highly productive players, like Abreu, and trying to go second rate. Spreading the money around to multipe mediocre players (Hendry's apparant plan) does not work. The Cubs need impact, and there is very little that could impact this team more than an everyday player with a .400 OBP.

[BigbadB]

Since I don't think Jones will be in any trade plans, I'm a huge advocate to move him to CF. I think I'd even respect the contract he signed a bit more if he played CF.

[jjgman21]

Characterizing Abreu's production as average is unfair.

 

You could move Jones to cf pretty easily where his production would be much great than anybody else you could find. An OF of Murton, Jones, Abreu could be pretty good next year, certainly much better than what they've had the past two years.

 

Bobby pretty much guarantees a .400+ OBP. He won't SLG you to death, but he won't kill you there either. There is very little out there that is more attractive, with the biggest name like Carlos Lee, who is less productive but will probably get much more money. Floyd is older and less of a player. Not to mention you'd have to hope you get him in free agency, not a good bet with Hendry around.

 

Jim may have stayed away from big money mistakes. But his biggest big money mistakes is staying away from highly productive players, like Abreu, and trying to go second rate. Spreading the money around to multipe mediocre players (Hendry's apparant plan) does not work. The Cubs need impact, and there is very little that could impact this team more than an everyday player with a .400 OBP.

 

a couple years ago I was trying to figure out if Sosa stood a chance of a resurgence, so I looked at five sluggers from each decade since the 1920's to see how they did after a fall off in their thirties. not a perfect study, but pretty revealing. what I found was that if you were not Bonds or Aaron, you did not recover from a fall off in your numbers after reaching about 31-32, other than an occassional year here and there by an occassional player.

 

I know I am harsh on Abreu because of what he has accomplished up until this point of his career, but the odds are heavily slanted against him that he will have any sort of resurgence back to the OBP and SLG monster of a couple years ago. you know the age players peak. Abreu has peaked. the best we could hope for is his maintaining his numbers, which is historically unlikely, and even if he does, he's overpaid for those numbers.

 

injuries and down years in 2006 aside, the Cubs already have a top 3-5 NL player at three and a half positions. there's a good core to build around without adding 15M to the payroll for OBP out of one position. don't get me wrong, I would love Abreu in between Lee and Aram in 2007, but I think there are much better ways to improve the team, both in the short and long term, because again, I don't think you should go filling a traditional power position with a player who has traditionally filled that role, simply for the sake of tradition.

 

the presence of Barrett in the lineup gives you tremendous flexability to improve the team without putting all your eggs into the rightfield basket. just because you are filling the rest of the team with players who don't have a star label doesn't mean you have to settle for mediocrity. that's a false choice. you know this as well as anybody.

[jjgman21]

Since I don't think Jones will be in any trade plans, I'm a huge advocate to move him to CF. I think I'd even respect the contract he signed a bit more if he played CF.

 

I find it weird that I am saying this to a couple of people far more into Moneyball philosophy and SABR than I am, but with Cedeno in the lineup, Jones as an everyday player is unacceptable. two guys that make way too many outs day in, day out.

[BigbadB]

Since I don't think Jones will be in any trade plans, I'm a huge advocate to move him to CF. I think I'd even respect the contract he signed a bit more if he played CF.

 

I find it weird that I am saying this to a couple of people far more into Moneyball philosophy and SABR than I am, but with Cedeno in the lineup, Jones as an everyday player is unacceptable. two guys that make way too many outs day in, day out.

 

Unfortunately, you'll have to go to the Cedeno regression thread in Baseball Discussions to see my comments on this. I have no issues with Cedeno playing out the rest of this year, but if an impact bat is available at SS, I would trade Cedeno faster than you can say his name.

 

With Lugo possibly leaving Tampa at the end of the season (potentially a Cub?), I'd trade a package of Murton/Hill/Cedeno for one of their stud outfielders. Tampa will be in need of a SS.