The Jeff Samardzija Thread

[Vinestal]

Seems like most people are predicting Samardzija as a 2nd round pick in the NFL now. Would the money for a 2nd round pick be pretty far under what we have already offered him to concentrate on baseball. Seems like a no brainer as far as the money angle is concerned. NFL contracts are not garunteed are they? I really hope he decides to play baseball, but he hasnt given any clues as to which sport he wants to play. Is he waiting until after the NFL draft to make a desicion? You would think his being in limbo might scare alot of NFL teams off especially with the amount of money he has waiting for him from us. Id love to hear more people's thoughts on this. I dont follow the NFL or College football with anywhere near the amount of detail and zeal as I do baseball, so its hard for me to see what the pros and cons would be as to choosing a football career over a baseball one.

 

Baseball has guaranteed contracts, but to get the big money you have to make it through the minor leagues with those long bus rides and staying in less than luxurious hotels.

 

With baseball, if he makes it, he'll probably make more money in the long run without as much wear and tear on his body.

 

On the other hand, he's closer to the "big time" by choosing football.

 

His 7 million or whatever it is from us is guarunteed though isnt it? Your right on his being closer to the big time playing football.

[goonys evil twin]

Seems like most people are predicting Samardzija as a 2nd round pick in the NFL now. Would the money for a 2nd round pick be pretty far under what we have already offered him to concentrate on baseball. Seems like a no brainer as far as the money angle is concerned. NFL contracts are not garunteed are they? I really hope he decides to play baseball, but he hasnt given any clues as to which sport he wants to play. Is he waiting until after the NFL draft to make a desicion? You would think his being in limbo might scare alot of NFL teams off especially with the amount of money he has waiting for him from us. Id love to hear more people's thoughts on this. I dont follow the NFL or College football with anywhere near the amount of detail and zeal as I do baseball, so its hard for me to see what the pros and cons would be as to choosing a football career over a baseball one.

 

Baseball has guaranteed contracts, but to get the big money you have to make it through the minor leagues with those long bus rides and staying in less than luxurious hotels.

 

With baseball, if he makes it, he'll probably make more money in the long run without as much wear and tear on his body.

 

On the other hand, he's closer to the "big time" by choosing football.

 

His 7 million or whatever it is from us is guarunteed though isnt it? Your right on his being closer to the big time playing football.

 

What $7m from us? I was under the impression that he signed a relatively small 1-year deal with the Cubs. They still own his rights, and he has leverage to negotiate for more to get him to quit football, but if he is drafted high enough he'll get a big guaranteed bonus check, and be in-line to make much more much sooner in football.

 

As vance points out, aside from deciding for himself which sport he prefers, the financial aspect of the decision comes down to more up-front, but much lower total potential for earnings in the NFL, over less up-front, with a potential much bigger windfall down the road.

 

There's also the issue of burnout among young pitchers. The odds of making it as a pitching prospect are much less than a WR prospect. If you are good enough to be drafted high in football, you will be given every chance to stick in the NFL. With baseball, there's no guarantee he'll ever see the big leagues.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

[ChiefsVoice]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

[Vinestal]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

I for one hope it did, if not I dont see why he wouldn't choose the NFL since he stands to make more money sooner and his baseball possibilities would be much more iffy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

Do you have any info on what he did sign for? For what it's worth, my informatin was based from ESPN and Baseball America.

[Illini Iceman]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

Do you have any info on what he did sign for? For what it's worth, my informatin was based from ESPN and Baseball America.

 

From this month's VineLine:

 

"I've had some good pitchers - Brad Lidge and Aaron Heilman - but Jeff is as good if not better than those guys," says former Noter Dame baseball coach Paul Mainieri. "This guys is going to be a great major-league pitcher, if that's the route he chooses."

And that's the only way Samardzija gets the bulk of his $7.25 million signing bonus. If the Valpraiso, Ind., native chooses football. he receives just $250,000.

 

I doubt the Cubs would let that be printed in their own monthly magazine if it was not true. There are no details about what exactly he has to do over what time period to earn the full bonus.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks, Illini Iceman. That's exactly the breakdown I had, based on those ESPN and BA articles.

[ChiefsVoice]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

Do you have any info on what he did sign for? For what it's worth, my informatin was based from ESPN and Baseball America.

 

BA sucks....from what I was told is that he got slot money (250k) for being drafted as the Cubs 2nd pick....and then is just paid like any other minor leaguer unless he completely ditches football....then they will renegotiate his deal...but does anyone really see that happening when the NFL signing bonus for a 1st rounder is a 7 figure deal?

[Mephistopheles]

Slot money was $175,000.

[imb]

After the combines, he won't be a first rounder, anyway.

[biittner77]

Maybe this is just a perception thing but WR don't usually get the really big contracts. Sure there are guys like Owens and Ocho Cinco that get the big money but for every one of them there are 5 guys that are making a lot less.

[goonys evil twin]

Maybe this is just a perception thing but WR don't usually get the really big contracts. Sure there are guys like Owens and Ocho Cinco that get the big money but for every one of them there are 5 guys that are making a lot less.

 

First rounders get paid. You might have that perception because there are about 5 WR per team and lots of teams have very cheap WR filling spots. But the top ones get as much money as most other positions. If you're taken in the first, you will get a multi-million dollar guarantee.

[craig]

We know Sam didn't actually signed this alleged (but unconfirmed) $7 contract. But we also know that the Cubs could offer him guaranteed money if he was willing to commit fulltime to baseball. The $7 offer was probably exaggerated even if there was something to it.

 

But, let's suppose that the Cubs were willing to offer, say, $5/4 or $7/5 of guaranteed money to Sam.

 

How low in the NFL draft would he need to go for a $5/4 contract (guaranteed) be economically competitive?

 

I'm not sure, but here is a link to the Green Bay Packers rookie contracts from the 2006 draft. http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=479350

*AJ Hawk, the 5th pick overall, got $15 guaranteed and a $36/6 deal overall.

*College 47th and Jennings 52nd got $3.3/4 and $2.9/4 deals, with $1.7 and $1.5 guaranteed.

*3rd rounders got <$1 guaranteed, and <$2.5/4 overall.

 

If Cubs were to guarantee $5/4, that would appear superior to what a mid-2nd round pick would get. The total money is largere, and the guaranteed money would be more than double.

 

How much higher than 47th would he need to go for an NFL contract to exceed a $5/4 Cub guarantee?

 

Two other NFL Q's: Can you pay your picks whatever you like, or are there slot restrictions? In other words, might he slip to mid/late 2nd because of Cub issues, but then have the team that drafts him sign him to late-first round contract anyway? Or will we know on draft day what his contract will look like, more or less?

 

Second, how high does he project to go? I've checked one or two NFL mock drafts, and they still have him in the 20's. Are those unrealistic?

 

Obviously the other question relates to what he'd rather do. The NFL is the most popular game in America. So money comparable, might going NFL be more jazzy than pitching baseballs? Or, being in the NFL for sure seems more fun than pitchingfor Peoria and Daytona and Iowa. Might not the Cubs need to clearly win $$-wise to offset the natural appeal of being immediately in the big NFL show? I suppose the flip side is the health and longevity factor. Average NFL career is 3 years or so? So the probability of getting even a 2nd NFL contract is iffy? (Although higher for sure for a high pick like Sam will be...) Whereas if he makes it in major leagues, he could easily have a 10-year career and make tons. Then I suppose the other factor could be locale. If being local in Chicago is a draw, maybe that would break a tie with getting drafted by New Orleans or Cleveland or something.

[Vinestal]

thanks craig that was an excelent breakdown

[goonys evil twin]

But, let's suppose that the Cubs were willing to offer, say, $5/4 or $7/5 of guaranteed money to Sam.

 

How low in the NFL draft would he need to go for a $5/4 contract (guaranteed) be economically competitive?

 

I suppose the flip side is the health and longevity factor. Average NFL career is 3 years or so? So the probability of getting even a 2nd NFL contract is iffy? (Although higher for sure for a high pick like Sam will be...) Whereas if he makes it in major leagues, he could easily have a 10-year career and make tons. Then I suppose the other factor could be locale. If being local in Chicago is a draw, maybe that would break a tie with getting drafted by New Orleans or Cleveland or something.

 

I don't think you can critique the health factor of an NFL wide receiver, and their longevity, then disregard the same questions with pitchers.

 

Sure, football players get hurt rather easily. But I'm not so sure NFL WR get "career ending hurt" any more frequently than pitchers, in fact, I'd bet they don't. And you are kind of glossing over the "if he makes the major leagues" portion of the debate. If he goes to baseball, there is no guarantee he'll ever make the majors. If he goes to football, he's pretty much guaranteed to make the bigs in his first year, with the only exception being injury, or being so incredibly unimpressive that the team makes him inactive all year(they won't cut him in the first year of a deal that gives him such a signing bonus).

 

I would say that if he's drafted in the top 20, it would be really hard for the Cubs to offer enough money to make him give it up. If he's later in the first round, it will still be hard, but a little more even (I think a WR taken in the mid 20's would get about $4-5m guaranteed). And if he's in the 2nd round or later, the Cubs should be able to win the up-front money debate.

 

The second question, however, is how quickly he'd be able to sign his next contract. If he goes football, he could conceivably be onto his 2nd big money contract by year 3. If he goes to baseball, he will be lucky if he's making arbitration money by year 6 (3 years in minors and 3 years majors). He should also make far more up-front secondary income via the football route, with advertising, appearances and all that.

 

None of this takes into account which sport he actually prefers, as I believes it's impossible to know.

 

But financially, it comes down to this:

 

Baseball offers the far greater longterm potential for earnings, provided he makes it through 3-5 years of the minors relatively healthy, then pitches pretty well for another 6 years in the majors. If he reaches his peak in either sport, he's going to make more in baseball. But football probably offers the greater short-term guaranteed money, as well as potential for his next contract, unless he drops to the 2nd round of the draft or lower. Then, it becomes more of a question. Assuming he does well in the pros, then he'd still be in-line to make much more over the short-term, but, if he's drafted in the 2nd or later, and struggles in the NFL, then he'll only end up with a few million guaranteed.

[craig]

I think those are all excellent points, goony. That the injury-risk as a pitcher might be comparable to as an NFL dude. That when his first baseball contract expires, he might be pre-arb, whereas if he signed a 2nd NFL contract, it would be for some money. And that he's already established that he's an NFL-caliber player and will be in the NFL. He may never become a big-league caliber pitcher, either for health reasons or simple performance/control/stuff reasons.

 

I think it will be even harder than you suggested for the Cubs to get him if the decision is based on dollars. I think anywhere in the 1st round NFL would be a better bet. Not unless he'd slip to middle or later 2ns would I expect the NFL money to be definitely inferior.

 

And I'd kinda think that the rush and the excitement and the immediate-big-show for NFL would likely give that the tiebreaker edge unless baseball money (or something else about baseball) is clearly preferable.

 

Back in the Quincy Carter days, I recall thinking about this. Which would be more fun, playing outfield where you'll average maybe 3 catchable balls per game, and where you bat 4 times a game and usually fail in 3 of those; vs QB, where you're active and central in every pplay on offense. Clearly the QB.

 

Perhaps for Sam, it might be different. If you're a star you'll get some balls, but in an average game a 2nd or 3rd receiver might only get a couple of balls thrown your way all game. Whereas a pitcher, when he's pitching he's the center of everything. Neither a WR nor an outfielder have the ability to control a game and be central to everything the way a QB or a pitcher can.

[goonys evil twin]

Back in the Quincy Carter days, I recall thinking about this. Which would be more fun, playing outfield where you'll average maybe 3 catchable balls per game, and where you bat 4 times a game and usually fail in 3 of those; vs QB, where you're active and central in every pplay on offense. Clearly the QB.

 

But smoking crack won out over both options.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Of course, the physical toll of an NFL season is likely greater than that of baseball. He might prefer throwing pitches than taking a hit from an NFL safety as he tries to catch a ball thrown over the middle in zone coverage.

[abuck1220]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

Do you have any info on what he did sign for? For what it's worth, my informatin was based from ESPN and Baseball America.

 

BA sucks....from what I was told is that he got slot money (250k) for being drafted as the Cubs 2nd pick....and then is just paid like any other minor leaguer unless he completely ditches football....then they will renegotiate his deal...but does anyone really see that happening when the NFL signing bonus for a 1st rounder is a 7 figure deal?

 

do you have any support for your constant claims that BA sucks? i'd love to hear a few examples of guys that you correctly predicted to succeed that BA thought would suck or vice versa.

[Illini Iceman]

We know Sam didn't actually signed this alleged (but unconfirmed) $7 contract. But we also know that the Cubs could offer him guaranteed money if he was willing to commit fulltime to baseball. The $7 offer was probably exaggerated even if there was something to it.

 

We do? How do we know this.

[questionmarkgrace]

I'm pretty sure that the deals Samardzija and Huseby were the cause for the new bonus cap for each round. I believe this was just added to the last collective bargaining agreement. Apparently people were pissed that the cubs gave first round money to both those guys in the fifth and eleventh rounds. I specifically remember there were numerous articles after th Samardzija signing in which people in the know wondered whether or not Bud Selig would let a team sign a fifth round player for so much money. I really don't think there is anything alleged about his bonus, but I could be wrong.

[ChiefsVoice]

Jeff was given a $250,000 bonus (split over 5 years) and has the potential to earn $7 million more over the next 5 years in a heavily back-loaded deal (so the longer he plays baseball, the more likely he is to earn the big bucks - it's only guaranteed if he sticks to baseball each year).

 

I gotta say, Samardzija doesn't have the seperation or speed to be too successful in the NFL (it'd help if he was a good route runner).

 

Everything I heard from Cubs brass is that this reported deal never happened....at least not the $7 million part....for what its worth...

 

Do you have any info on what he did sign for? For what it's worth, my informatin was based from ESPN and Baseball America.

 

BA sucks....from what I was told is that he got slot money (250k) for being drafted as the Cubs 2nd pick....and then is just paid like any other minor leaguer unless he completely ditches football....then they will renegotiate his deal...but does anyone really see that happening when the NFL signing bonus for a 1st rounder is a 7 figure deal?

 

do you have any support for your constant claims that BA sucks? i'd love to hear a few examples of guys that you correctly predicted to succeed that BA thought would suck or vice versa.

 

How about Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher for starters....you guys have to understand that BA writers rarely, if ever see a player more than once or twice....they rely waaaaay too much on others for their "expert opinions"....very few MILB people use BA as a source....

[Athletics36]

Gotta agree with "Chiefsvoice" on this one!!! Can't really say what I would like about "BA". This publication has never given Son any credit and never promotes the "little guy". Take a look at their Top 50 you have a player that they constantly promote "mark rogers" and what has said player done?? nothing but yet he still projects. BA is a publication that sticks with their high draft picks or players they have fallen in love with and do nothing to promote anybody else. I have mentioned this in the past but not only about my son that there are plenty of players out there with better stats but because BA isn't in love with them and not one of their boys they do nothing for them. Son uses everything that they say about him as motivation and very rarely will he do an interview for them.

[craig]

....you guys have to understand that BA writers rarely, if ever see a player more than once or twice....they rely waaaaay too much on others for their "expert opinions"....very few MILB people use BA as a source....

 

I think BA is what BA is, for better or for worse. And that is a reflection of what scouts and scouting directors tell them. Absolutely they don't watch and scout guys that much themselves, so their opinions are not based on their own limited observations. They are simply passing along what they are told by other scouting people in the busiiness. That's useful, to a degree. And if there are certain players who seem underappreciated or overappreciated, that probably reflects the biases or underappreciation or overappreciation of the scouting community, for better or for worse.

 

I agree that they tend to stick with former favorites for a long time, often too long. To some degree that may again reflect sources, perhaps to some it's just BA. Hendry kept giving the love to David Kelton long after there was no actual progress; BA kept putting Kelton top-10 even though he wasn't showing anything. Was BA the dopes? Or was BA just reflecting that in this particular case, Hendry and Fleita were dopes, were unable to adjust their opinions, and kept feeding BA dopey confidence about Kelton? Is it BA that's doped out on Mark Rogers; or is it maybe some of their scouting sources who continue to believe? Or both? The Cubs gushed up Dopirak, but he's produced only in A-. You'd think BA should drop him big-time. But, even after his horrific Daytona, Hendry still put him on the roster, and Fleita still gushed him up as if the Daytona debacle was meeaningless. So, BA's overappreciation for Dopirak may be a somewhat true reflection of their source's overappreciation for Dopirak.

 

Several other thoughts:

1) They cover a lot of guys. So the depth with which they can know each of them is limited. No surprise that they aren't too in-the-know about many of the hundreds of prospects they cover in their book.

2) I think their info is often way old. Especially the further down a guy is in a team's ranking. I recall them still talking about Pinto as a slender projectible when he'd already chunked out extensively.

3) I think for guys drafted high, they start with interst and they tend to stick with those favorites way too long. (Ala Kelton and Dopirak and Brownlie.) Again, not sure how much of that is just BA versus sources. But I think the lower a guy was drafted or the lower he is on their list, the less reliable and the less thorough their info and sources are. They may talk to a whole bunch of scouts about Pie or Guzman or Veal, or perhaps this year about Gallagher. I don't think they'll be quizzing nearly so many about, say, Matt Avery, or Rocky Cherry, or Clay Rapada. The lower you stand on their list, the more likely that the info will be incorrect or that their relative valuation will be incorrect.