Do we have any position players worth a darn?

[Mephistopheles]

I hate everything about ESPN. Too mainstream. The only thing I ever use the site for are up to the minute stats. So if I reminded you of Bill Simmons it was completely incidental.

 

Heck, I hade to google Bill Simmons to find out who he was.

[CubsWin]

Nate Spears is repeating High A. He hit .294/.349/.429 in the Carolina League last season. He doesn't have tools either. He's a baseball rat who gets as much out of his tools as he can, he's a homeless man's David Eckstein.

Wow, I didn't know someone out there who felt so strongly about Nate Spears. Have at it. :D

 

And his line in the Carolina League is one of the reason's why I think he will slug better than .311.

 

But this thread isn't really about Nate Spears. Care to chime in on the rest of the evidence...

-Ryan Harvey has hit .394 (37-for-94) over 25 games. In that span he has hit 10 doubles, 9 HRs, 3 BB, 21 K, scored 25 runs and drove in 26 more. The good news is the sample size on this hot streak is growing. The bad news is his strikeout to walk ratio is still absolutely terrible, but there is a silver lining. During his current 4-game hitting streak, he has walked 3 times and struck out only once.

 

-I trust we all know how Felix Pie has turned it on since the start of this thread. He went .316/.352/.419 in July. So far in August, he is 10-for-23 (.435) with 3 walks and 4 Ks in 6 games. He has scored 8 times in those 6 games while stealing 2 bases and posting a .739 SLG (4 doubles, 1 HR).

 

-Jake Fox was on the prospect radar after a terrific spring filling in for Barrett and Blanco who were off at the WBC. He went 6-for-15 (.400) over 9 games with 4 doubles and a triple. I was surprised when he was sent to High-A Daytona given his age at the time, 23, (he has since turned 24) but he did nothing but produce hitting .313/.383/.574 earning him a promotion to AA. He struggled mightily since that promotion and probably fell off of many fans prospect radar screens. But he has broken out of his slump in a big way. Over the last 6 games, Fox is batting .462 (12-for-26) with 5 doubles, 3 HRs, 5 runs scored and 15 batted in. Fifteen RBI and a SLG of 1.000 over his last 6 games. And, as a catcher, he is not playing everyday so that is over a period of a couple weeks. In his last 9 games, he is batting .368.

 

-Two years ago, Brian Dopirak was named the Cubs #1 prospect by BA. I didn't buy it, but was glad to see a Cubs hitting prospect not named Pie top the list for once. His season at High-A in '05 was certainly disappointing, but I believe if a guy can do it once, he can do it again. Brian also had an impressive spring filling in for Derrek Lee while he was at the WBC hitting .355 with 2 doubles and 2 HRs in 31 ABs. There was reason for optimism as he started in AA this year, but Dope seriously injured his foot in his first game and hasn't been able to generate any power in his swing because of it all season. But over his last 10 games he has hit .323/.462/.548 with 4 doubles and a HR, 8 BB/9 K. Maybe his foot is finally healed...

 

-Scott Moore finally started living up to his draft position last season when he hit .281/.358/.485 for Daytona. But because he was repeating that level, many have been waiting to deem him a worthy position prospect. It also may have something to do with the fact that he struck out 134 times in 128 games while walking only 55 times. This season, Moore has also struggled with the strike zone while putting up decent numbers in his first go around at AA. Moore is batting .271/.341/.469 while striking out 105 times in 106 games and walking just 36 times. But over his last 9 games which includes his current 7-game hitting streak, Moore has walked 8 times and struck out only 3 times while going 12-for-31 with 2 doubles and 2 HRs for a line of .387/.513/.645.

 

No one still really fits the description of a top-flight position prospect, but with so many having gotten hot since the inception of this thread, the landscape of the Cubs position prospect future has certainly altered a bit.

[Outshined_One]

I'm becoming less and less a fan of utilizing batting average when it comes to evaluating prospects. Sometimes it can be effective in predicting a hitter's effectiveness, but much of the time, as a guy moves from level to level, it's hard to count on almost any prospect for consistency in that regard. BABIP, Line Drive %, and all sorts of other things just factor so heavily into it that I find myself skeptical of many guys.

 

Much like I have trouble understanding why people get so upset over a guy hitting .220, I have some trouble with people getting excited over a prospect hitting .300. Those aforementioned factors can work just as positively as they can negatively.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's great that these guys are hitting well recently, but I want to see it for a longer time before I get too excited (especially Harvey and Dopirak). Too small a sample size.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm becoming less and less a fan of utilizing batting average when it comes to evaluating prospects. Sometimes it can be effective in predicting a hitter's effectiveness, but much of the time, as a guy moves from level to level, it's hard to count on almost any prospect for consistency in that regard. BABIP, Line Drive %, and all sorts of other things just factor so heavily into it that I find myself skeptical of many guys.

 

Much like I have trouble understanding why people get so upset over a guy hitting .220, I have some trouble with people getting excited over a prospect hitting .300. Those aforementioned factors can work just as positively as they can negatively.

 

I agree and I'd like to see a stat that shows how often a hitter hits the sweet spot. Granted, line drives would be a big part of that but if a kid is hitting the ball hard a good percentage of the time I'd be more impressed with that than a decent average.

 

This is such a mental game and I know that frustation sets in when you're crushing the ball and you get no on base results so I'm curious on how that has a part of it too. Hpefully the coaches are helping them with this since most of them have always had success hitting and this may be the first time they had to deal with a long term failure.

[RynoRules]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

[goonys evil twin]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak is 22 and sucking it up in AA, following a terrible year in high A, when he clearly did not earn a promotion. I don't know how to define an average pace, but I guess the best we could reasonably hope for would be he repeats AA at 23 in 2007, and does well. Then starts 2008 in AAA and earns a September callup that year.

 

Harvey is 21 and sucking it up in high A, following a mediocre year in low A. He'll turn 22 in a couple weeks. He hasn't earned a promotion, but the way the Cubs work he might be in AA in 2007, which means he'll probably have to repeat AA in 2008, with an outside shot at reaching AAA by 2008. I guess a Sep callup is possible for him in 2008, but 2009 is a little more reasonable without a spectaculiar turnaround.

 

Patterson is 23, having a reasonably successful season in AA. There might be an outside shot for a Sep callup this year. But I'm guessing he's more likely to see a spring training invitation in 2007, and a Sep callup that season as well. This is probably dependent on what Hendry decides to do with the LF/2B conundrum.

[RynoRules]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak is 22 and sucking it up in AA, following a terrible year in high A, when he clearly did not earn a promotion. I don't know how to define an average pace, but I guess the best we could reasonably hope for would be he repeats AA at 23 in 2007, and does well. Then starts 2008 in AAA and earns a September callup that year.

 

Harvey is 21 and sucking it up in high A, following a mediocre year in low A. He'll turn 22 in a couple weeks. He hasn't earned a promotion, but the way the Cubs work he might be in AA in 2007, which means he'll probably have to repeat AA in 2008, with an outside shot at reaching AAA by 2008. I guess a Sep callup is possible for him in 2008, but 2009 is a little more reasonable without a spectaculiar turnaround.

 

Patterson is 23, having a reasonably successful season in AA. There might be an outside shot for a Sep callup this year. But I'm guessing he's more likely to see a spring training invitation in 2007, and a Sep callup that season as well. This is probably dependent on what Hendry decides to do with the LF/2B conundrum.

 

What is Harvey's deal? Even I know "sucking it up" at high A at age 22 is not a good thing.

[goonys evil twin]

What is Harvey's deal? Even I know "sucking it up" at high A at age 22 is not a good thing.

 

I don't know exactly what his deal is, but as far as I can tell, he swings at everything and usually misses. The few times he does make solid contact it's really solid contact. He's very high on the K list, and has fewer AB's than all but one guy ahead of him (and fewer walks than anybody in the top 20 of that list. He's also near the top of the HR list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

Edited August 8, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[RynoRules]

What is Harvey's deal? Even I know "sucking it up" at high A at age 22 is not a good thing.

 

I don't know exactly what his deal is, but as far as I can tell, he swings at everything and usually misses. The few times he does make solid contact it's really solid contact. He's very high on the K list, and has fewer AB's than all but one guy ahead of him (and fewer walks than anybody in the top 20 of that list. He's also near the top of the HR list.

 

Strange that he has so few ABs but doesn't walk very much. You'd think there would be a correlation there. Its too bad - I could live with him in the OF in 08' if he hit for a low avg., but walked in bunches and had a high slugging (a la Dunn).

[RynoRules]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

 

I have read several times on this bd. that EPatt isn't ready to assume full-time duties next season, hence the acquisition of Izturis. Is this your assessment as well? Is he therefore just trade bait?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

 

I have read several times on this bd. that EPatt isn't ready to assume full-time duties next season, hence the acquisition of Izturis. Is this your assessment as well? Is he therefore just trade bait?

 

He probably could do it and post numbers similar to what I expect Izturis to do, but *I* think EPatt will need at least a half season at AAA and some time to get accustomed to the big leagues. I'd rather have him than Izturis by the end of next season and definitely 2008 and on.

[RynoRules]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

 

I have read several times on this bd. that EPatt isn't ready to assume full-time duties next season, hence the acquisition of Izturis. Is this your assessment as well? Is he therefore just trade bait?

 

He probably could do it and post numbers similar to what I expect Izturis to do, but *I* think EPatt will need at least a half season at AAA and some time to get accustomed to the big leagues. I'd rather have him than Izturis by the end of next season and definitely 2008 and on.

 

If he is that close the Izturis acquisiton means either:

 

1) The Cubs don't think the same thing about him; or

2) JH's decisions continue to befuddle.

[goonys evil twin]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

 

I have read several times on this bd. that EPatt isn't ready to assume full-time duties next season, hence the acquisition of Izturis. Is this your assessment as well? Is he therefore just trade bait?

 

He probably could do it and post numbers similar to what I expect Izturis to do, but *I* think EPatt will need at least a half season at AAA and some time to get accustomed to the big leagues. I'd rather have him than Izturis by the end of next season and definitely 2008 and on.

 

Izturis is SS, Patterson is 2B. I don't think Cesar's acquisition has any bearing the Patterson's future.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Assuming they move up the ladder at an avg. pace, when could we expect to see the following guys at Wrigley (including for a Sept. call up in 06' or 07'):

 

Dopirak

EPatt

Harvey

 

I ask because I know less about minor league promotions than many here and wish to learn. Thanks.

 

Dopirak: Sept. 2007 if he repeats at AA and has a good season, otherwise sometime in 2008.

EPatt: Sometime next season.

Harvey; I don't think he'll make it to the bigs as a hitter, even with his hot July and August. But I expect he'll be at AA next season.

 

I have read several times on this bd. that EPatt isn't ready to assume full-time duties next season, hence the acquisition of Izturis. Is this your assessment as well? Is he therefore just trade bait?

 

He probably could do it and post numbers similar to what I expect Izturis to do, but *I* think EPatt will need at least a half season at AAA and some time to get accustomed to the big leagues. I'd rather have him than Izturis by the end of next season and definitely 2008 and on.

 

Izturis is SS, Patterson is 2B. I don't think Cesar's acquisition has any bearing the Patterson's future.

 

I agree.

[imb]

I took it to mean that Izturis presence at SS moves Ronny to 2b for the near future, providing a bridge to EPatt.

[RynoRules]

What about Ronny? Trade bait? Utility?

[RynoRules]

I took it to mean that Izturis presence at SS moves Ronny to 2b for the near future, providing a bridge to EPatt.

 

Thanks - that is what I meant.

[Jehrico]

I'm more hopeful of Harvey making the team than EPatt anytime in the next two years. If Harvey ever figures out that just a little more patience will go a LOOOOONG way with him, he'll get his status as a top prospect back VERY quickly. My biggest concern with him is that he's in the wrong organization to learn that (that said, I wouldn't mind seeing him rushed to AAA to work with Von Joshua, maybe the only person in the org I trust at mentoring prospects). I don't see what everyone else sees in EPatt...he's a good prospect and minor leaguer, but he's not that great of a prospect. I doubt he'll ever be more than a AAAA player. I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't see that level of talent in him.

[Outshined_One]

I don't see what everyone else sees in EPatt...he's a good prospect and minor leaguer, but he's not that great of a prospect. I doubt he'll ever be more than a AAAA player. I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't see that level of talent in him.

 

Good speed and awareness on the basepaths, above average D at 2B, reasonable OBP/IsoD, and decent power are the reasons why people like him. He still has a few kinks to work out of his game, so I'd expect him to be in AAA for a reasonable portion of next season.

 

If he reaches his ceiling, he'll be a solid guy to have in the lineup. That's a good prospect, imo.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm more hopeful of Harvey making the team than EPatt anytime in the next two years. If Harvey ever figures out that just a little more patience will go a LOOOOONG way with him, he'll get his status as a top prospect back VERY quickly. My biggest concern with him is that he's in the wrong organization to learn that (that said, I wouldn't mind seeing him rushed to AAA to work with Von Joshua, maybe the only person in the org I trust at mentoring prospects). I don't see what everyone else sees in EPatt...he's a good prospect and minor leaguer, but he's not that great of a prospect. I doubt he'll ever be more than a AAAA player. I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't see that level of talent in him.

 

It will take a lot more than just a little more patience for Harvey. It will take a complete reworking of his approach. He's brutal, just plain awful. EPatt is a good prospect, far from great, but Harvey hardly even ranks as a prospect anymore as pathetic as his professional results have been so far. Guys who strike out all the time, never, walk, and don't produce, just don't pan out.

[craig]

*Harvey: Long shot. Very rare for a guy with such extreme K/BB problems to ever solve that. Usually is a manifestation of some fundamental, uncorrectable problem. Very unlikely that he ever turns the corner and becomes good. Still, recent hitting is refreshing, and very rare things sometimes happen. (Rich Hill, Sammy sosa, and Ronny Cedeno are all Cub cases of very rare career profiles.) Harvey has shown enough recently that I'll at least keep my eye on him for a while longer.

 

He missed some games to injury (back, I think), that's why his AB aren't higher. I suppose it's also possible that they justtook hiim out for a while to try to clear his slump, or to make some changes in his swing, I don't know.

 

*Patterson: Unlikely to see him before 2008, if ever. He wouldn't need Rule 5 protection until *after* next year, so bringing him up next year would start him early and would unnecessarily require a 40-man spot.

 

I see Patterson as a prospect, but pretty much an average one. If he improves, he's got a chance to be a major-leaguer, perhaps even a low-level support starter. If he doesn't improve a lot, he can be a career minor leaguer or a fringe guy. Time will tell. Not much power, defense doesn't project much better than big-league average, so to make it he needs to make it as an OBP guy. That's going to be tough without a higher batting average, and for that to happen, either he'll need to hit a lot more HR's (doubtful) or cut back on his K's a lot (difficult to do without also compromising your walks), and elevate his BABIP. Possible, so he's a prospect; but improbable. He has made some progress in reducing the K's. His 19% is still rotten for a table-setter, but it's not as bad as it was.

 

*Fox: His hitting looks great. But he's not much of a prospect because he's a DH masquerading as a catcher. Barrett is viewed as a lousy receiver, and he averges about 9 passed balls per *season*. Fox has gotten that many in 30 games at WTenn! (Or maybe less, if he's actually DH'd or pinch hit in some of his games...). Hard to take him very seriously without a big-league position.

[texascub]

He missed some games to injury (back, I think), that's why his AB aren't higher. I suppose it's also possible that they justtook hiim out for a while to try to clear his slump, or to make some changes in his swing, I don't know.

 

Didn't Harvey tear his ACL last year and then have knee/hamstring problems in spring training this year?

[Outshined_One]

*Patterson: Unlikely to see him before 2008, if ever. He wouldn't need Rule 5 protection until *after* next year, so bringing him up next year would start him early and would unnecessarily require a 40-man spot.

 

I see Patterson as a prospect, but pretty much an average one. If he improves, he's got a chance to be a major-leaguer, perhaps even a low-level support starter. If he doesn't improve a lot, he can be a career minor leaguer or a fringe guy. Time will tell. Not much power, defense doesn't project much better than big-league average, so to make it he needs to make it as an OBP guy. That's going to be tough without a higher batting average, and for that to happen, either he'll need to hit a lot more HR's (doubtful) or cut back on his K's a lot (difficult to do without also compromising your walks), and elevate his BABIP. Possible, so he's a prospect; but improbable. He has made some progress in reducing the K's. His 19% is still rotten for a table-setter, but it's not as bad as it was.

 

See, I'm much higher on Patterson than this for a number of reasons.

 

-Ks are meaningless when evaluating a hitter's future success. I've finally come around on this point and it took a member of the Sabr Society to beat me over the head with a number of studies in order to get here. The strikeout is just another out, nothing more, nothing less. BB/K is not a good indicator of a guy's plate discipline. This is why I've been harping on IsoD quite a bit lately.

 

-He has a very healthy LD% (~19.23%), especially against RHPs (~21.6%). When he makes contact, he's getting a good number of line drives, which will do wonders for his ability to hit for extra bases and possibly even HRs as he fills out. I like that.

 

-His IsoD is currently at .069, which is a tick above average and fairly reasonable. Granted, he's not Adam Dunn or Barry Bonds at the plate, but he draws a reasonable enough number of walks to make me think he has a clue at the plate, unlike a number of other guys in this organization.

 

-His SB% is 77%, which is pretty good for some one down in the minor leagues. When he steals, there's a pretty good chance he won't run himself into an out. He's just above the 75% mark, which strikes me as positive.

 

Bottom line is, his August and July have hurt his batting average, but he's been decidedly unlucky during those stretches (.288 BABIP in July, .111 BABIP in August). His numbers are pretty much in line with BABIP for the season and it's not like he's been striking out more.

 

Trust me on this one; he'll be a good addition to this team in 2007 or 2008. :D