Trading Deadline Strategy

[ConstableRabbit]

What does Giles playing way below what people expected of him have anything to do with Hendry or Jones?

 

Hendry still made a mistake with Jones, it was just less of a mistake than he would've made with Giles.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Definite keepers: Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez (though note that's $30MM right there for three players)

 

Probably keep: Barrett, Cedeno, Prior, Eyre, Marshall, Marmol. I would be willing to trade any of these guys in the right deal, but it would have to be a convincing argument. I'm no big fan of Barrett, but he's not expensive and there aren't many good catchers out there. I don't think Cedeno is a future all-star, but he's OK, shortstops again there aren't TOO many good ones, and he's cheap. Prior, the potential is too high, and his value too low right now, to move him unless the deal warrants it like a Tejada trade would have. I like Eyre because his money is reasonable and he's a reliable lefty reliever, hard to find them. Marshall and Marmol look like solid 3/4 type starters long-term, you don't regard 3s and 4s as untouchable, but you tend to not want to trade them.

 

Everyone else is on the block, including anyone in our minor league system.

 

Players I DEFINITELY trade if I can find a willing partner? Jones, Maddux, Pierre, Wood, Walker, Neifi, Rusch and Williamson top the list, because I don't see any of them fitting in to the long-horizon success of the team. I recognize some of these guys have little to no value (Rusch) or are untradeable because of injury (Wood and Williamson), I'm just saying if you can save money and move them, you do it. For instance, I'll take nothing for Rusch if I could just get a team to pick up a portion of his 2007 money, that alone would be a victory and an improvement. Same thing with Neifi.

 

Targets? Slugging outfielders, young middle infielders, starting pitchers. For hitters, high OBP is a must. For pitchers, health and reliability, along with control and pitch count efficiency, are musts. Money is no issue as I see it.

[NCCubFan]

DEAL........or no deal?

http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/images/howie_n.jpg

Ladies, please!

[soapy]

Bruce chimes in on some trading deadline and offseason thoughts.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Carlos Lee, but he's definitely got the right idea. Nice article Bruce. I like that you continue to bring up the Cubs' flawed method for contstructing a team.

[soapy]

What is Freel's contract status? He is someone I'd be interested in to play CF until Pie is ready and could lead-off.

 

I'd be willing to deal off some of the young pitching in order to get a difference maker (Cabrera, Abreu, etc.). For my purposes here, I'm going to assume Hendry keeps Jones (though he shouldn't), so I'll pencil him into the OF. Murton would likely be part of a deal to get Cabrera or Abreu along with the young pitching (Marmol, Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Ryu, Williams, etc.). If he can be kept, he platoons with Jones. If not, find a platoon partner (or hold onto Nevin). I'm not against trading Pie if necessary either (especially for Cabrera). I doubt Walker would be back, but I'd be interested in re-signing him.

 

I'm not anxious to deal Prior yet, but I wouldn't count on him to be my #1 or #2 either. If you deal guys like Marshall, Marmol or Hill, you need to pick up another starter. Possibilities include Schmidt and Zito. In the bullpen, I'm definitely open to trading Dempster. I'm not down on him, I just think he's got some good value right now for a team that is in the race and needs a closer. Trading him in the offseason is still a possibility too. The Reds might be interested in a deal for the aforementioned Freel. I let the other guys in the bullpen battle for the "closer" role. Howry is probably a strong candidate. I'm still a big fan of Wuertz as well.

 

Depending on who you have to trade for Freel and/or Cabrera or Abreu, you could probably put together something like this for opening day 2007.

 

Freel CF

Walker/Kennedy? 2B

Lee 1B

Cabrera/Abreu (LF or RF)

Ramirez 3B

Barrett

Jones RF of LF

Cedeno SS

 

If Pie is ready, he can see some time at CF. Freel is nice because he can play OF, 2B or 3B and be in the lineup on a regular basis. If Walker isn't brought back, he can be the full-time 2B for a while.

 

SP-wise; I'm assuming that at least a few of the young SP mentioned above are gone. If I can add Schmidt, I'm looking at a 1-3 of Zambrano, Schmidt and Prior and I haven't added that much payroll yet because of the loss of Wood and Maddux. Depending on who I still have left from the young arms, I might be able to fill in the rest of my rotation. If not, I might still have enough money to make a run at someone on the FA market.

[Yestheydo]

What is Freel's contract status? He is someone I'd be interested in to play CF until Pie is ready and could lead-off.

I've wanted Freel for a long time, and with the emergence of Brandon Phillips, he's more expendable to the Reds than ever. He's signed through 07 and cheap (2mil or so a year, depending on plate appearances). But he does have a problem with one of his toes (seriously) that apparently prevents him from being effective when in the lineup every day for extended periods of time.

 

I'd absolutely love to see the Cubs send a reliever or two over to the Reds for him, platoon him with Pierre (to get Pierre's OBP up some), then trade Pierre and find out for sure if Freel can play every day or not. But I'm not holding my breath.

[NCCubFan]

The question now becomes what to do about it because the 2007 baseball season kicks off next April, and the Cubs presumably will field a team.

:lol:

[baseball7897]

What is Freel's contract status? He is someone I'd be interested in to play CF until Pie is ready and could lead-off.

 

I'd be willing to deal off some of the young pitching in order to get a difference maker (Cabrera, Abreu, etc.). For my purposes here, I'm going to assume Hendry keeps Jones (though he shouldn't), so I'll pencil him into the OF. Murton would likely be part of a deal to get Cabrera or Abreu along with the young pitching (Marmol, Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Ryu, Williams, etc.). If he can be kept, he platoons with Jones. If not, find a platoon partner (or hold onto Nevin). I'm not against trading Pie if necessary either (especially for Cabrera). I doubt Walker would be back, but I'd be interested in re-signing him.

 

I'm not anxious to deal Prior yet, but I wouldn't count on him to be my #1 or #2 either. If you deal guys like Marshall, Marmol or Hill, you need to pick up another starter. Possibilities include Schmidt and Zito. In the bullpen, I'm definitely open to trading Dempster. I'm not down on him, I just think he's got some good value right now for a team that is in the race and needs a closer. Trading him in the offseason is still a possibility too. The Reds might be interested in a deal for the aforementioned Freel. I let the other guys in the bullpen battle for the "closer" role. Howry is probably a strong candidate. I'm still a big fan of Wuertz as well.

 

Depending on who you have to trade for Freel and/or Cabrera or Abreu, you could probably put together something like this for opening day 2007.

 

Freel CF

Walker/Kennedy? 2B

Lee 1B

Cabrera/Abreu (LF or RF)

Ramirez 3B

Barrett

Jones RF of LF

Cedeno SS

 

If Pie is ready, he can see some time at CF. Freel is nice because he can play OF, 2B or 3B and be in the lineup on a regular basis. If Walker isn't brought back, he can be the full-time 2B for a while.

 

SP-wise; I'm assuming that at least a few of the young SP mentioned above are gone. If I can add Schmidt, I'm looking at a 1-3 of Zambrano, Schmidt and Prior and I haven't added that much payroll yet because of the loss of Wood and Maddux. Depending on who I still have left from the young arms, I might be able to fill in the rest of my rotation. If not, I might still have enough money to make a run at someone on the FA market.

 

I like the idea of Adam Kennedy at 2b. Plays great defense, has good range, hits for average, can still a base and he gets on base. Sounds like a good 2 hitter

[BigbadB]

I'd rather have Giles, no doubt, but seriously, does he owe you money?

 

Huh?

[Mushimus]

What is Freel's contract status? He is someone I'd be interested in to play CF until Pie is ready and could lead-off.

I've wanted Freel for a long time, and with the emergence of Brandon Phillips, he's more expendable to the Reds than ever. He's signed through 07 and cheap (2mil or so a year, depending on plate appearances). But he does have a problem with one of his toes (seriously) that apparently prevents him from being effective when in the lineup every day for extended periods of time.

 

I'd absolutely love to see the Cubs send a reliever or two over to the Reds for him, platoon him with Pierre (to get Pierre's OBP up some), then trade Pierre and find out for sure if Freel can play every day or not. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

Reds will not trade Freel unless overwhelmed. With health questions with Griffey, Kearns, Encarnacion, etc Freel has so much value.

[BigbadB]

Reds will not trade Freel unless overwhelmed. With health questions with Griffey, Kearns, Encarnacion, etc Freel has so much value.

 

He's also depth for the Reds, something Hendry has no comprehension of.

[Yestheydo]

Reds will not trade Freel unless overwhelmed. With health questions with Griffey, Kearns, Encarnacion, etc Freel has so much value.

 

I know they're not dying to give him away. But over the past couple seasons, he's been their only "real" leadoff man, to the point where they absolutely had to find a way to get him in the lineup. Now, when everyone's healthy, they put Lopez and Phillips at the top and Freel doesn't play much at all. If they didn't have him, they'd be fine with Aurilia, Denorfia, Olmedo filling in. Having Freel would be better, but if he gets them real bullpen help, they can afford to move him, where they really couldn't before. All I'm saying.

[frostwyrm]

Is there not one person here who agrees with the official line that the Cubs are still in the race?

[NCCubFan]

Is there not one person here who agrees with the official line that the Cubs are still in the race?

They're still in the race until they're mathematically eliminated.

 

However, they're in a deep coma on life support with virtually no chance of meaningful recovery. Time to pull the plug and get a head start on 2007. I think I have a greater chance of winning the lottery jackpot than the Cubs do of making postseason this year.

[beowulf28]

...sell, sell, sell.

 

Thats ridiculous. I believe Raws strategy is the best.

 

I agree with both RTDG and Rawaction (and whoever else said that we HAVE to be sellers is ridiculous!). I'm also afraid that Hendry won't trade Pierre and Jones for the same Roast does. His pride.

 

But one of the sports writers from, I think it was the Sun Times, said something to the effect that the Cubs don't need to be sellers, and basically said that they could be buyers, but for next year. Trade some--or much--of what we have for young players and really good veterans, play them the rest of this year. That way, we establish the core of the 2007 Cubs, and just add whatever else would be needed. BTW, I didn't read the article, I heard about it on the Score.

[beowulf28]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

 

What?? Lee?? Zambrano??? They are the cornerstones of our team! Why should we trade them? And like someone else already said, We're not like the Marlins or Nationals who need to dump salary and start from scratch with all young guys. Don't forget, not all minor leaguers are ready at the same time. To dump all our players...espescially the core of our team like, Lee and Z would be huge mistake!

 

BTW, sorry if this sounds too harsh! I had to respond as soon as I read the first part of this post.

[beowulf28]

What is Freel's contract status? He is someone I'd be interested in to play CF until Pie is ready and could lead-off.

 

I'd be willing to deal off some of the young pitching in order to get a difference maker (Cabrera, Abreu, etc.). For my purposes here, I'm going to assume Hendry keeps Jones (though he shouldn't), so I'll pencil him into the OF. Murton would likely be part of a deal to get Cabrera or Abreu along with the young pitching (Marmol, Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Ryu, Williams, etc.). If he can be kept, he platoons with Jones. If not, find a platoon partner (or hold onto Nevin). I'm not against trading Pie if necessary either (especially for Cabrera). I doubt Walker would be back, but I'd be interested in re-signing him.

 

I'm not anxious to deal Prior yet, but I wouldn't count on him to be my #1 or #2 either. If you deal guys like Marshall, Marmol or Hill, you need to pick up another starter. Possibilities include Schmidt and Zito. In the bullpen, I'm definitely open to trading Dempster. I'm not down on him, I just think he's got some good value right now for a team that is in the race and needs a closer. Trading him in the offseason is still a possibility too. The Reds might be interested in a deal for the aforementioned Freel. I let the other guys in the bullpen battle for the "closer" role. Howry is probably a strong candidate. I'm still a big fan of Wuertz as well.

 

Depending on who you have to trade for Freel and/or Cabrera or Abreu, you could probably put together something like this for opening day 2007.

 

Freel CF

Walker/Kennedy? 2B

Lee 1B

Cabrera/Abreu (LF or RF)

Ramirez 3B

Barrett

Jones RF of LF

Cedeno SS

 

If Pie is ready, he can see some time at CF. Freel is nice because he can play OF, 2B or 3B and be in the lineup on a regular basis. If Walker isn't brought back, he can be the full-time 2B for a while.

 

SP-wise; I'm assuming that at least a few of the young SP mentioned above are gone. If I can add Schmidt, I'm looking at a 1-3 of Zambrano, Schmidt and Prior and I haven't added that much payroll yet because of the loss of Wood and Maddux. Depending on who I still have left from the young arms, I might be able to fill in the rest of my rotation. If not, I might still have enough money to make a run at someone on the FA market.

 

If Dempster would be dealt, could Wood be a possibility for closer?

[FergieJ31]

... I think I have a greater chance of winning the lottery jackpot than the Cubs do of making postseason this year.

 

According to baseball prospectus, the odds against the Cubs making the playoffs are about 500 to 1 right now. To me it seems like it should be a lot worse - more like 1000 or 2000 to 1.

[CubinNY]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

 

What?? Lee?? Zambrano??? They are the cornerstones of our team! Why should we trade them? And like someone else already said, We're not like the Marlins or Nationals who need to dump salary and start from scratch with all young guys. Don't forget, not all minor leaguers are ready at the same time. To dump all our players...espescially the core of our team like, Lee and Z would be huge mistake!

 

BTW, sorry if this sounds too harsh! I had to respond as soon as I read the first part of this post.

Reading is Fundamental

[beowulf28]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

 

What?? Lee?? Zambrano??? They are the cornerstones of our team! Why should we trade them? And like someone else already said, We're not like the Marlins or Nationals who need to dump salary and start from scratch with all young guys. Don't forget, not all minor leaguers are ready at the same time. To dump all our players...espescially the core of our team like, Lee and Z would be huge mistake!

 

BTW, sorry if this sounds too harsh! I had to respond as soon as I read the first part of this post.

Reading is Fundamental

 

Sorry, I just read the bolded names and responded. I think, in reality, nobody is really untradable.