what is the deal with prior???

[goonys evil twin]

there are pitchers who have been abused early in their careers who haven't suffered the same type of injury woes...Oswalt and Pedro were pretty much abused early on, and both of them are small guys with violent deliveries. so were Mussina and Schilling and Clemens.

 

but one has to wonder what the hell is going on with pitchers these days. Steve Trachsel and Jon Leiber are 29th and 30th on the active wins list while nearly all of the young phenoms from the past decade and a half, particularly the power pitchers, haven't had any sustained success.

 

Mussina was used sparingly at 22, threw over 200 at 23, then under 200 at 24 and 25. Oswalt was used sparingly at 23, had a full season at 24, then missed significant time at 25. Pedro didn't cross the 200 IP threshold until he was 24. Schilling did it at 25. Clemens did it at 23.

 

Mark Prior crossed the 200 IP threshold before all of those guys. And while I don't have pitch count numbers on all of them, I'd be willing to bet none of them were used like Prior. Oswalt, for one, who did it a couple years later in life than when Prior did, doesn't come close to Prior. He had 2 games of 120 pitches. He had 18 under 100 pitches and never went more than 3 games in a row over 100 pitches. And he averaged just 98 pitches per game.

[Jon]

But that doesnt answer the question who has thrown more pitches over the last couple of years Buerhle or Prior? I am guessing and I admit it is just a guess that Buerhle has. So another question would be: What is worse for pitchers higher pitch counts per game, or high pitch totals for the year?

It's not a fair comparisson since Prior hasn't had full seasons. But here are the pitches per start:

 

Buehrle:

2004 - 35 starts, 105.6 pitches per start

2005 - 33 starts, 105.4 pitches per start

 

Prior:

2004 - 21 starts, 98.1 pitches per start

2005 - 27 starts, 104.7 pitches per start

 

What you have to consider about these numbers, though, is that Prior's pitch counts were limited for a while after coming off the DL in 2004. He didn't break 100 pitches until his 11th start. After that, he had 6 starts over 100 pitches, including one at 129. In 2005, he came off the DL twice, and while he wasn't as limited, they weren't in the race later and there wasn't a huge desire to really push him in each start.

 

I'd have to believe high pitch totals per game are going to cause more damage, but I don't necessarily have anything to back that up on.

[Jon]

What are the numbers on Willis? I know I remember him pitching pretty much every other game in the 03 playoffs.

2003 - 27 starts, 98.6 pitches per start in the regular season (only went over 3 IP in the post-season once, nothing out of the ordinary with those pitch counts either as a starter or out of the 'pen)

2004 - 32 starts, 97.8 pitches per start

2005 - 34 starts, 104.6 pitches per start

 

I'd be pretty surprised to find someone who was abused quite like Prior was in 2003.

Edited May 5, 2006 by Jon

[goonys evil twin]

But that doesnt answer the question who has thrown more pitches over the last couple of years Buerhle or Prior? I am guessing and I admit it is just a guess that Buerhle has. So another question would be: What is worse for pitchers higher pitch counts per game, or high pitch totals for the year?

 

That's a pointless question. Prior has been injured more over the past couple of years. Of course Buerhle has accumulated more total. The point is how you get there. If you only throw 1000 pitches in a season, but you do it in 6 games, it's probably going to be worse than racking up 3400 in 34 games. We don't know any of this for sure. But lots of people who have studied this believe that it's not the total number of innings or pitches that matter most (although you probably don't want young guys going from seasons with just 120 IP to seasons with 250 IP), it's how you rack them up. A series of repeatedly high pitch count games back to back without a couple less stressful games thrown in is most likely one of the worst ways to treat a young pitcher. Crossing the 110 pitch threshold in any one game is probably not a big deal, but doing it over and over, especially coming off of a shoulder injury, is probably extremely dumb, not to mention risky. I'd call it malpractice myself.

 

I didn't want these guys pulled at 99 every game. But there was no reason to ever have them go 130 (let alone 140). When they went 110+ a couple in a row, I wanted them to get a break for a game or two on the low end. I wasn't asking for extreme caution, just some level of caution and not the completely reckless treatment they were given.

[ronsanto10]

But that doesnt answer the question who has thrown more pitches over the last couple of years Buerhle or Prior? I am guessing and I admit it is just a guess that Buerhle has. So another question would be: What is worse for pitchers higher pitch counts per game, or high pitch totals for the year?

 

That's a pointless question. Prior has been injured more over the past couple of years. Of course Buerhle has accumulated more total. The point is how you get there. If you only throw 1000 pitches in a season, but you do it in 6 games, it's probably going to be worse than racking up 3400 in 34 games. We don't know any of this for sure. But lots of people who have studied this believe that it's not the total number of innings or pitches that matter most (although you probably don't want young guys going from seasons with just 120 IP to seasons with 250 IP), it's how you rack them up. A series of repeatedly high pitch count games back to back without a couple less stressful games thrown in is most likely one of the worst ways to treat a young pitcher. Crossing the 110 pitch threshold in any one game is probably not a big deal, but doing it over and over, especially coming off of a shoulder injury, is probably extremely dumb, not to mention risky. I'd call it malpractice myself.

 

I didn't want these guys pulled at 99 every game. But there was no reason to ever have them go 130 (let alone 140). When they went 110+ a couple in a row, I wanted them to get a break for a game or two on the low end. I wasn't asking for extreme caution, just some level of caution and not the completely reckless treatment they were given.

also factor into this the fact that they have been pitching prob since they were 7 years old....and if they threw a curve/slider early on (11 years old or so)....it will add up.....

[jjgman21]

there are pitchers who have been abused early in their careers who haven't suffered the same type of injury woes...Oswalt and Pedro were pretty much abused early on, and both of them are small guys with violent deliveries. so were Mussina and Schilling and Clemens.

 

but one has to wonder what the hell is going on with pitchers these days. Steve Trachsel and Jon Leiber are 29th and 30th on the active wins list while nearly all of the young phenoms from the past decade and a half, particularly the power pitchers, haven't had any sustained success.

 

Mussina was used sparingly at 22, threw over 200 at 23, then under 200 at 24 and 25. Oswalt was used sparingly at 23, had a full season at 24, then missed significant time at 25. Pedro didn't cross the 200 IP threshold until he was 24. Schilling did it at 25. Clemens did it at 23.

 

Mark Prior crossed the 200 IP threshold before all of those guys. And while I don't have pitch count numbers on all of them, I'd be willing to bet none of them were used like Prior. Oswalt, for one, who did it a couple years later in life than when Prior did, doesn't come close to Prior. He had 2 games of 120 pitches. He had 18 under 100 pitches and never went more than 3 games in a row over 100 pitches. And he averaged just 98 pitches per game.

 

I agree with your general point in the thread, but as to this response, the notion that young pitcher abuse is more significant if it happens one year earlier in the life of the pitcher is rather absurd, especially when comparing Mark Prior, who has been groomed to become a 200-250 IP/year pitcher since he was 15.

[obcubs]

But that doesnt answer the question who has thrown more pitches over the last couple of years Buerhle or Prior? I am guessing and I admit it is just a guess that Buerhle has. So another question would be: What is worse for pitchers higher pitch counts per game, or high pitch totals for the year?

 

That's a pointless question. Prior has been injured more over the past couple of years. Of course Buerhle has accumulated more total. The point is how you get there. If you only throw 1000 pitches in a season, but you do it in 6 games, it's probably going to be worse than racking up 3400 in 34 games. We don't know any of this for sure. But lots of people who have studied this believe that it's not the total number of innings or pitches that matter most (although you probably don't want young guys going from seasons with just 120 IP to seasons with 250 IP), it's how you rack them up. A series of repeatedly high pitch count games back to back without a couple less stressful games thrown in is most likely one of the worst ways to treat a young pitcher. Crossing the 110 pitch threshold in any one game is probably not a big deal, but doing it over and over, especially coming off of a shoulder injury, is probably extremely dumb, not to mention risky. I'd call it malpractice myself.

 

I didn't want these guys pulled at 99 every game. But there was no reason to ever have them go 130 (let alone 140). When they went 110+ a couple in a row, I wanted them to get a break for a game or two on the low end. I wasn't asking for extreme caution, just some level of caution and not the completely reckless treatment they were given.

So basically you are saying Baker is an idiot- yeah I have always agreed with that. Edited May 5, 2006 by obcubs

[srbin84]

Well, I guess the conclusion is that the Cubs probably damaged Prior for good, so they need to work toward getting his trade value up and shipping him out.

[soccer10k]

No one is accusing you of having to high expectations. People are accusing you of using a inneffective method of judging a pitchers efficacy. Which it is. Plain and simple, it is baseball-challenged logic if you use wins as a metric.

 

Oh really? I beg to differ.

No I didn't, but I do think Wood not winning 15 games in a season is a big deal. I know that wins don't mean everything, and I have discussed this in another thread, but if Kerry Wood is so great, you would think he would have had a Cy Young caliber season already. But he hasn't.

 

i know, you're right, kerry should have struck out an average of 23 batters per game and won every game he's pitched in.

 

i think it's absolutely the mark of a casual fan to see wood strike out 20 batters in a game and then get called a bust when he can't repeat it in the years following. that was the worst thing he could have ever done, because after that, the edward k's of the world began expecting him to be some sort of ruthian mega-legend.

 

The listing of all those pitchers who won 15 games that sucked balls should show you how useless that is of a metric.

 

The listing shows that it isn't expecting a lot of a so called great pitcher to win 15 games in a season.

[TruffleShuffle]

Roger Clemens threw 118, 119 and 121 pitches per start from age 25-27, and probably around that many at age 24. Livan Hernandez threw 119 pitches per start at age 23, 113 per start at age 24, and 116 per start at age 25.

[TruffleShuffle]

Also, Randy Johnson has averaged 114 pitches per game during his major league career... pretty amazing.

[srbin84]

This is definitely a black and white issue:

 

Either the Cubs turned Prior into damaged goods, and we need to get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

or

 

The reason he is missing all of this time is all mental, and we need to get him help and keep him or get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

Either way, something needs to be done.

[Jon]

Roger Clemens threw 118, 119 and 121 pitches per start from age 25-27, and probably around that many at age 24. Livan Hernandez threw 119 pitches per start at age 23, 113 per start at age 24, and 116 per start at age 25.

Wow. Should've specified recently, but that's crazy. I wonder if they knew then that Clemens was a freak of nature.

 

This is definitely a black and white issue:

 

Either the Cubs turned Prior into damaged goods, and we need to get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

or

 

The reason he is missing all of this time is all mental, and we need to get him help and keep him or get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

Either way, something needs to be done.

The second reason is pretty absurd, especially when MRI tests have shown what was wrong with his shoulder in March, but there's also no way Prior can be classified as "damaged goods." This is the first time he's missed a significant period of time because of a non-accident arm injury, and it's also not the only cause of the long delay.

[srbin84]

Clemens had a serious shoulder injury in 85.

[goonys evil twin]

I agree with your general point in the thread, but as to this response, the notion that young pitcher abuse is more significant if it happens one year earlier in the life of the pitcher is rather absurd, especially when comparing Mark Prior, who has been groomed to become a 200-250 IP/year pitcher since he was 15.

 

Why is it absurd? Clearly younger players are still developing physically. A year can make a huge difference in the makeup of the person. The fact is Prior was younger than those guys, who were used as examples of pitchers who were supposedly abused to the same extent at the same age. And Prior was younger than all of them when he was pitching for the Cubs and racking up pitcher abuse points beyond belief.

 

And I don't think it makes a difference if he was groomed to become a 200-250 IP/year pitcher since he was 15. Nobody knows the best way to get a guy to that level. Whose to say that grooming didn't play a role in his problems? What we do know is that pitchers get hurt by pitching, and that younger pitchers are susceptible. Prior racked up an incredible amoung of pitcher abuse points at a very young age. And while those points are not any sort of hard and fast rule, they are a pretty good indicator, and injury/less effective pitching soon followed. Prior was younger and racking up more high pitch count games than most pitchers cited as examples of how to stay healthy (even though some of those guys have had their own issues, and/or developed later in life).

 

I'm not going to say "ha, he was 8 months younger, there it's proof beyond debate". But it all adds up to a pretty ugly indictment of the Cubs usage of young assets, and a pretty reasonable explanation for recent problems. It's at least much more reasonable than claiming the guy is a wussy.

[goonys evil twin]

This is definitely a black and white issue:

 

Either the Cubs turned Prior into damaged goods, and we need to get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

or

 

The reason he is missing all of this time is all mental, and we need to get him help and keep him or get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

Either way, something needs to be done.

 

I definitely disagree. It's most likely not a black and white issue. Regardless, they are not in a position where the only option is to get rid of him.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

This is definitely a black and white issue:

 

Either the Cubs turned Prior into damaged goods, and we need to get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

or

 

The reason he is missing all of this time is all mental, and we need to get him help and keep him or get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

Either way, something needs to be done.

 

I definitely disagree. It's most likely not a black and white issue. Regardless, they are not in a position where the only option is to get rid of him.

 

No, black was get rid of him, white was either keep him or get rid of him. :?

[goonys evil twin]

This is definitely a black and white issue:

 

Either the Cubs turned Prior into damaged goods, and we need to get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

or

 

The reason he is missing all of this time is all mental, and we need to get him help and keep him or get his trade value up and deal him for something of value.

 

Either way, something needs to be done.

 

I definitely disagree. It's most likely not a black and white issue. Regardless, they are not in a position where the only option is to get rid of him.

 

No, black was get rid of him, white was either keep him or get rid of him. :?

 

Oh, that confused me. Bad reading. Mind is on something else.

 

:mexican:

:pint:

:party1:

 

Happy defeat of the French army at the Battle Of Puebla Day.

[srbin84]

I was kind of confusing. What I was saying was either the Cubs abuse in 2003 is why Prior can't stay healthy, in which case I don't want the Cubs to have anything to do with him. The reason is that if one season of abuse puts you out in large parts of 3 years and who knows how much longer, forget it, he's damaged goods. If it's Prior's fault, I'd say get rid of him, but I wouldn't be against him seeing a sports psychologist with all of that off time he has first.

[goonys evil twin]

I was kind of confusing. What I was saying was either the Cubs abuse in 2003 is why Prior can't stay healthy, in which case I don't want the Cubs to have anything to do with him. The reason is that if one season of abuse puts you large parts of 3 years and who knows how much longer, forget it, he's damaged goods. If it's Prior's fault, I'd say get rid of him, but I wouldn't be against him seeing a sports psychologist with all of that off time he has first.

 

I wouldn't call it one season of abuse. He was not handled well in 2002, at 21, nor was he handled particularly well in 2004 or 2005.

 

They have him under control thru 2008. I'd rather they see if they can turn him back into a star by then and keep him.

[srbin84]

Why not just make him see a sports psychologist about his injuries though since he has the time because he isn't playing right now? If nothing else, just to get people like me to stop speculating and shut up.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Why not just make him see a sports psychologist about his injuries though since he has the time because he isn't playing right now? If nothing else, just to get people like me to stop speculating and shut up.

 

With all due respect, you shutting up is probably the least of his worries.

[srbin84]

Why not just make him see a sports psychologist about his injuries though since he has the time because he isn't playing right now? If nothing else, just to get people like me to stop speculating and shut up.

 

With all due respect, you shutting up is probably the least of his worries.

 

I meant like-minded people in the media.

[jjgman21]

 

Why is it absurd? Clearly younger players are still developing physically.

 

......

 

I'm not going to say "ha, he was 8 months younger, there it's proof beyond debate".

 

staying specific to my point, it is absurd because Prior was pretty much fully developed physically by the time he was on the Cubs, and because some of the players you scoffed at were only 8-14 months older than Prior, and as pointed out above, some were just as abused.

[goonys evil twin]

Why not just make him see a sports psychologist about his injuries though since he has the time because he isn't playing right now? If nothing else, just to get people like me to stop speculating and shut up.

 

I wouldn't want them to do anything with the motivation of getting fans to shut up. (for instance, I hate that they apparantly changed how they give out rehab info just because they were blasted for being wrong before).

 

And I don't believe in forcing anybody to see a pyschologist. I highly doubt he's just making up pain. And even if he is, if you force him to go, then he's probably not going to get anything out of it if he doesn't want to be there.