So now what do we do?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

re-read what I wrote.

 

He has had the three best consecutive years of any cubs starter since WWII

 

What are you basing that on? Fergie put up some pretty sick numbers from 67-72.

[sethuel1]

Look, I enjoy a relatively unquantifiable and eventually pointless argument as much as the next guy, but can we go back to making sarcastic comments and generally feeling sorry for ourselves here?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

re-read what I wrote.

 

He has had the three best consecutive years of any cubs starter since WWII

 

What are you basing that on? Fergie put up some pretty sick numbers from 67-72.

 

Adjust for league/era. Jenkins' best three years were back to back, but they weren't as impressive as Z the last 3 years.

[TB_11]

Just read through the thread one thing stands out to me...Fergie Jenkins won 20+ games for six straight years while posting ERA's between 2.63 and 3.39. Nothing against Zambrano, but he's not there yet. I seem to remember Greg Maddux and Rick Sutcliffe putting up three good seasons together as well. Granted, Sutcliffe didn't dominate but he was very consistent much like Carlos.

 

Fergie doesn't really have an advantage vs Zambrano's last three years in terms of ERA, as Fergie put up the above numbers in a different era. For instance in 1968 he put up an ERA of 2.63, when the park-adjusted league ERA was 3.16. On the other hand Z put up an ERA of 2.75 in 2004, when the park-adjusted league ERA was 4.27.

 

Fergie's advantage is in his innings, as he routinely pitched over 300 innings when he was a member of the Cubs. Z is a modern-day innings eater, as he's given us 200+ innings in each of his full seasons with the team.

[stitchface]

re-read what I wrote.

 

He has had the three best consecutive years of any cubs starter since WWII

 

What are you basing that on? Fergie put up some pretty sick numbers from 67-72.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me - I will post them tonight

[Transmogrified Tiger]

re-read what I wrote.

 

He has had the three best consecutive years of any cubs starter since WWII

 

What are you basing that on? Fergie put up some pretty sick numbers from 67-72.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me - I will post them tonight

 

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

[Andy]

I think I have to go with the "blow it up" crowd.

 

Build around Prior, Z, Ramirez, Lee, Barrett and our young guys (Murton, Cedeno, Hill, Pie, et al), and go for young talent via trades, draft and FA. This group as presently assembled has little chance of going anywhere in the near future.

[Careless]

If this goes to hell this year, and assuming that Dusty is not asked back, I think we should toy with the idea of blowing this thing up.

 

Keep Lee, ARam, Prior and our young arms (Guzman, Hill, etc.) and put everyone else up for sale. Jones' contract is tradeable. Bring Pie up for 07', pair him with Matty in LF. Let Cedeno play SS. Bring up a kid to play 2B. Barrett has a lot of value - trade him too. Just blow the damn thing up!!!!

 

:wall: :wall: :wall:

 

I'd trade Prior, Wood (pick up the option, eat the cash and get some decent prospects), Jones, and Barrett.

 

You can't trade Wood. NTC. He ain't waiving it and on ones taking him.

 

:takes shotgun and puts in mouth:

 

you don't think he'd waive it if we blew up the team, traded his buddy Prior, and offered to send him to Texas? he'd get his money.

 

No, I don't. He doesn't want to leave chicago, he certainly wouldn't want to go to a hitters haven, regardless if he's from Texas. Why on EARTH you'd trade Prior who we have until 2008 is beyond me anyway - but no one would take either of em. We wouldn't get squat for either.

Wood would waive it in an instant if, as was suggested, the option was picked up as part of the deal. You really think he'd pass up the $5 million or so he'd make with the option vs a new contract to avoid being traded?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's a moot point though, there's not a lot of incentive for a team to take on Wood's expiring contract(well, there's an option no one is going to pick up) when he's not healthy now. He has more value in hopefully being healthy for us than trading him for what we'd get for him IMO.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

 

There's much more to it than ERA+. I'm not saying Carlos isn't elite or that Fergie is superior, but not seeing them as near equals is absurd.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

 

There's much more to it than ERA+. I'm not saying Carlos isn't elite or that Fergie is superior, but not seeing them as near equals is absurd.

 

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. Are you saying that it's absurd not to call those 3 year stretches for each pitcher equal?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

 

There's much more to it than ERA+. I'm not saying Carlos isn't elite or that Fergie is superior, but not seeing them as near equals is absurd.

 

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. Are you saying that it's absurd not to call those 3 year stretches for each pitcher equal?

 

My point is comparing ERA+ for Fergie vs Carlos does not conclusively tell me that Carlos was superior in the last 3 years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

 

There's much more to it than ERA+. I'm not saying Carlos isn't elite or that Fergie is superior, but not seeing them as near equals is absurd.

 

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. Are you saying that it's absurd not to call those 3 year stretches for each pitcher equal?

 

My point is comparing ERA+ for Fergie vs Carlos does not conclusively tell me that Carlos was superior in the last 3 years.

 

What do you want to consider conclusive? We're not talking about the difference between Zambrano and Shawn Estes when talking superiority, we're talking about who performed better among two very good pitchers.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What do you want to consider conclusive? We're not talking about the difference between Zambrano and Shawn Estes when talking superiority, we're talking about who performed better among two very good pitchers.

 

There's nothing that is conclusive. Carlos had a better ERA+. Fergie struck out a boatload more and walked less with a lower WHIP. Carlos this, Fergie that.

[JonnyRed]

Don't get me wrong, I like Z as much as the next guy, but shouldn't elite pitchers win more than 14 games? We know he has the stuff for greatness (as evidenced by his stellar ERA) but wouldn't you agree he has yet to put it all together?

 

someone just get me a gun so I can shoot myself and not have listen to this argument one more freaking time.

 

Maybe our definitions of elite pitchers differs. I consider elite pitchers to be among the top 10 in baseball, and yes, an important aspect of that is wins. I know the argument about the value of ERA, WHIP and BAA (because I've used it plenty to justify Prior and Wood), but shouldn't elite pitchers (who are maximizing their ability) deliver more than 14 wins a season, which is what Z has done the past 3 years). Z is an all-star pitcher and our #1 ace, but he still has to gain consistency to become elite in my book. Hopefully that happens this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Don't get me wrong, I like Z as much as the next guy, but shouldn't elite pitchers win more than 14 games? We know he has the stuff for greatness (as evidenced by his stellar ERA) but wouldn't you agree he has yet to put it all together?

 

someone just get me a gun so I can shoot myself and not have listen to this argument one more freaking time.

 

Maybe our definitions of elite pitchers differs. I consider elite pitchers to be among the top 10 in baseball, and yes, an important aspect of that is wins. I know the argument about the value of ERA, WHIP and BAA (because I've used it plenty to justify Prior and Wood), but shouldn't elite pitchers (who are maximizing their ability) deliver more than 14 wins a season, which is what Z has done the past 3 years). Z is an all-star pitcher and our #1 ace, but he still has to gain consistency to become elite in my book. Hopefully that happens this year.

 

Roger Clemens won 13 games last season, and it was his best or second best season of his illustrious career. Too much is outside the pitcher's control.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

what does any of that have to do with the the thread topic?

[TB_11]

Fergie's best three consecutive years(he had a couple others juust better than his worst of these 3:

 

1969: 126 ERA+

1970: 133

1971: 143

 

Zambrano's last 3 years:

 

2003: 136 ERA+

2004: 165

2005: 131

 

There's much more to it than ERA+. I'm not saying Carlos isn't elite or that Fergie is superior, but not seeing them as near equals is absurd.

 

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. Are you saying that it's absurd not to call those 3 year stretches for each pitcher equal?

 

My point is comparing ERA+ for Fergie vs Carlos does not conclusively tell me that Carlos was superior in the last 3 years.

 

What do you want to consider conclusive? We're not talking about the difference between Zambrano and Shawn Estes when talking superiority, we're talking about who performed better among two very good pitchers.

 

Fergie's main advantage was in innings pitched - he went over 300 IP in the majority of his seasons with the Cubs, vs Z who's given us 200+ innings in each of the last three years. I don't know whether a 300 innings per year, 130ish ERA+ pitcher is more valuable than a 210 innings per year, 140ish ERA+ pitcher. Maybe some of the statheads on the board can shine some light on it.

[RynoRules]

what does any of that have to do with the the thread topic?

 

Thank you. :offtopic:

 

Getting back :ontopic: :

 

You trade Barrett b/c his value will never be higher (he's a 28-yr-old catcher with pop) and he has a reasonable contract, and you trade Jones b/c he has no purpose here if we blow the thing up (come to think of it, what purpose does he have currently?) and may have a bit of value to a veteran team in need of a fill-in in RF.

[UBlink]

what does any of that have to do with the the thread topic?

 

We should sign Roger Clemens to an affordable contract which he would accept since he only won 13 games last year.

[Andy]

Considering the apparent value of Todd Walker, Barrett might not have as much value as we might think.

[Soul]

I think you start thinking about the unthinkable:

 

Trading Wood and/or Prior.

 

We need to somehow build a rotation that will be able to take the mound regularly. Z should be the anchor. I say give Wood & Prior the rest of this season to see if they can become more reliable.

 

If they both spend the season on & off the DL? Blow it up.

[TB_11]

I think you start thinking about the unthinkable:

 

Trading Wood and/or Prior.

 

We need to somehow build a rotation that will be able to take the mound regularly. Z should be the anchor. I say give Wood & Prior the rest of this season to see if they can become more reliable.

 

If they both spend the season on & off the DL? Blow it up.

 

Wood: NTC

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I think you start thinking about the unthinkable:

 

Trading Wood and/or Prior.

 

We need to somehow build a rotation that will be able to take the mound regularly. Z should be the anchor. I say give Wood & Prior the rest of this season to see if they can become more reliable.

 

If they both spend the season on & off the DL? Blow it up.

 

Wood: NTC

 

According to Cot's Contracts, the NTC is only for '04-'06 and does not include the option for '07.

[ltb]

Don't get me wrong, I like Z as much as the next guy, but shouldn't elite pitchers win more than 14 games? We know he has the stuff for greatness (as evidenced by his stellar ERA) but wouldn't you agree he has yet to put it all together?

 

why do you keep using wins as a stat that a pitcher should have? for the most part, he can't control that.

 

zambrano is an elite starter and to say otherwise shows ignorance of the facts.

 

Z has elite ability. 1 elite pitcher then Maddux doesn't come close to making us a competitive ballclub.

 

uh....wow. please show me where i said we were going to be competitive. without wood and prior, we're not going to be.