Sportingnews Juan Pierre article

[Laura]

in summation- pierre needs to:

 

1. shrink his strike zone or work on pitch recognition so he's not slapping at juicy fastballs and flicking the bat at bad pitches. driving a nice pitch into the gap and taking third based on his superior speed would be a valuable improvement--as would walking down to first base after not swinging at a terrible pitch instead of fouling it off.

 

This is exactly what I was advocating earlier. Trying to be more selective and find a pitch to drive early in the count doesn't take away from anything Pierre does. With two strikes he can still be his slappy self and annoy the bejeebers out of pitchers. The only downside to being more selective and taking harder cuts at pitches early in the count is more 2 strike counts. However, because Pierre currently slaps the ball no matter the count, that's not really an issue, or at worst a relatively minor one compared to the improvement in extra bases.

 

How much does he bunt-single?

[Diffusion]

Which of these lineups would be better?

 

A) The best hitter at each position, put them in any order.

or

B) The best hitter in each lineup spot, leadoff, 2-hole, third, cleanup etc.

 

Let's see what we get for 2005...

 

A) Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Michael Young, Victor Martinez, pitcher

or

B) Ichiro Suzuki (CF), Michael Young, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jermaine Dye, Jorge Posada, Bill Mueller, pitcher

 

And I think we all know which of those lineups we'd prefer. A is clearly far and away superior to B.

 

Now that's my problem with the Cubs and Juan Pierre.

 

Build your team by getting the best possible player at each position that you can get, and everything will sort itself out.

 

Not by going after a good lead-off hitter, a good two-hole hitter, a good cleanup man, a good five-spot hitter and so on.

 

It doesn't take a special kind of player to lead-off. Just someone that can get on base and run un-slow. If you have eight players that all get on base and can run un-slow, as many of them hitting for power too as you can muster, then you've got no worries.

 

There's just no need for Juan Pierre types, with a good bunter batting second and so on...

 

DON'T BUILD LINEUPS BY LINEUP POSITION!

[CubinNY]

Which of these lineups would be better?

 

A) The best hitter at each position, put them in any order.

or

B) The best hitter in each lineup spot, leadoff, 2-hole, third, cleanup etc.

 

Let's see what we get for 2005...

 

A) Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Michael Young, Victor Martinez, pitcher

or

B) Ichiro Suzuki (CF), Michael Young, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jermaine Dye, Jorge Posada, Bill Mueller, pitcher

 

And I think we all know which of those lineups we'd prefer. A is clearly far and away superior to B.

 

Now that's my problem with the Cubs and Juan Pierre.

 

Build your team by getting the best possible player at each position that you can get, and everything will sort itself out.

 

Not by going after a good lead-off hitter, a good two-hole hitter, a good cleanup man, a good five-spot hitter and so on.

 

It doesn't take a special kind of player to lead-off. Just someone that can get on base and run un-slow. If you have eight players that all get on base and can run un-slow, as many of them hitting for power too as you can muster, then you've got no worries.

 

There's just no need for Juan Pierre types, with a good bunter batting second and so on...

 

DON'T BUILD LINEUPS BY LINEUP POSITION!

 

I agree completely. Good luck convincing the baseball "men" who played "the game" and the wannabe Sox clones on that one though.

 

Even so, I think given Patterson's struggles with the Cubs, they had to let him go. Now the choice is/was; is Pierre the best option? I think that depends on who was available. I would have been happy to get Wilkerson or someone else instead of Pierre, but we will never know what could have been. We just have to hope that Pierre performs to career norms with regard to OBP.

 

What worries me more is that the Cubs haven't got another run producer. I am as big a fan of Murton as anyone but thus far he has not shown he can hit for much power save the short stint he had with the club at the end of the season last year. I reallly don't expect much out of Jones and we know Pierre isn't going to hit for power. That puts termendus pressure on Aramis, Lee, and Barrett (not really a run producer either).

 

I still think the Cubs will struggle to score runs on a consistent basis.

[stitchface]

Hairston doubled to left center field

Walker grounded out to second, 4-3, Hairston to third

 

WOOHOO!

[Mizzou]

Hairston doubled to left center field

Walker grounded out to second, 4-3, Hairston to third

 

WOOHOO!

:? Wrong thread?

[UK1679666180]

Poudre tried to kill this thread by posting random game action, but this is an intersting article that mentions contact ratio. It also has Neifi mentioned.

 

Oh yeah, Horny too

 

:!:

 

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2006/03/contact-rate-and-ops.html

[Jon]

Poudre tried to kill this thread by posting random game action, but this is an intersting article that mentions contact ratio. It also has Neifi mentioned.

 

Oh yeah, Horny too

 

:!:

 

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2006/03/contact-rate-and-ops.html

Good article. It illustrates it pretty clearly.

 

And yeah, that top 10 contact hitters list isn't very impressive.

[badger1679666666]

A few corrections about Pierre’s game:

 

Last year Pierre was among the MLB leaders in TAKING the first pitch (8th among the 341 players with 200 or more AB). Last year Pierre only swung at 11.4% of first pitches where 27.6% was the MLB average).

 

Pierre swung and missed pitches 2.5% of the time (4th MLB. The average was 8.0%).

 

Pierre was about league average at Pitches Per Plate Appearance (with 3.69 while 3.75 was average). That is a very high total given that he swings and misses so rarely.

 

Pierre was NOT among the MLB leaders in foul %. As a rule contact hitters do not foul of a high % of pitches.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/swinging_taking.php

 

Also, Pierre’s WORST seasons occurred when he had the most K’s:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486

 

Finally if fewer HR are hit because fewer players are doing steroids then speed and SB have added value.

 

I don't really have a strong feeling for him, one way or the other.

 

I think it's interesting that not ONE critic of Pierre commented on these numbers.

[wolf stansson]

I think a lot of you are misinterpreting tiger's posts. He doesn't want him to completely change his game, just look to drive the ball in hitter's counts. This being the same approach Ichiro takes. He seems to do alright with it as a leadoff guy, looking to drive hitter's counts and slap into play pitcher's counts.

 

When you slap the ball, just trying to put the ball in play, you get a lot of weak outs. When you are more selective different parts in the at bat you draw more walks and get more extra base hits. If you are ahead in the count, the pitcher has to throw a strike or walk you. They can't nibble on the corners. This means you'll probably get an easier pitch to hit which means it will easier to drive for extra bases. When you hit a double, you don't have to risk getting caught stealing. His OBP probably wouldn't suffer, it might actually improve, and instead of being "pesky" he'd be dangerous.

[CubinNY]

A few corrections about Pierre’s game:

 

Last year Pierre was among the MLB leaders in TAKING the first pitch (8th among the 341 players with 200 or more AB). Last year Pierre only swung at 11.4% of first pitches where 27.6% was the MLB average).

 

Pierre swung and missed pitches 2.5% of the time (4th MLB. The average was 8.0%).

 

Pierre was about league average at Pitches Per Plate Appearance (with 3.69 while 3.75 was average). That is a very high total given that he swings and misses so rarely.

 

Pierre was NOT among the MLB leaders in foul %. As a rule contact hitters do not foul of a high % of pitches.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/swinging_taking.php

 

Also, Pierre’s WORST seasons occurred when he had the most K’s:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486

 

Finally if fewer HR are hit because fewer players are doing steroids then speed and SB have added value.

 

I don't really have a strong feeling for him, one way or the other.

 

I think it's interesting that not ONE critic of Pierre commented on these numbers.

 

The main reason is because those stats have no bearing whatsoever on the converstation. They were illustritive that Pierre saw pitches and made contact, nothing else.

[Soul]

A few corrections about Pierre’s game:

 

Last year Pierre was among the MLB leaders in TAKING the first pitch (8th among the 341 players with 200 or more AB). Last year Pierre only swung at 11.4% of first pitches where 27.6% was the MLB average).

 

Pierre swung and missed pitches 2.5% of the time (4th MLB. The average was 8.0%).

 

Pierre was about league average at Pitches Per Plate Appearance (with 3.69 while 3.75 was average). That is a very high total given that he swings and misses so rarely.

 

Pierre was NOT among the MLB leaders in foul %. As a rule contact hitters do not foul of a high % of pitches.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/swinging_taking.php

 

Also, Pierre’s WORST seasons occurred when he had the most K’s:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486

 

Finally if fewer HR are hit because fewer players are doing steroids then speed and SB have added value.

 

I don't really have a strong feeling for him, one way or the other.

 

I think it's interesting that not ONE critic of Pierre commented on these numbers.

 

The main reason is because those stats have no bearing whatsoever on the converstation. They were illustritive that Pierre saw pitches and made contact, nothing else.

 

No, it's because the massive, wideranging anti-Pierre conspiracy made sure the truth was squelched.

[srbin84]

I've read a lot of criticism of Pierre since we made the trade. Are there better leadoff men in the league? Yes. Can we come up with stats that show Pierre isn't as effective an offensive player as he is perceived to be? Sure. But despite all of that, he is going to completely transform the offense and make help the Cubs score more runs and win more games this year. He is replacing Corey Patterson, probably the worst starting position player in the majors last year and possibly the worst leadoff man in Cubs history. Replacing him with Pierre (and I think the Pierre is a slightly above average leadoff man) is like replacing Jacque Jones with a 2001 fully juiced and healthy Barry Bonds. That's just how bad and detrimental to the team Patterson was in the leadoff spot.

[Soul]

He's a leadoff man who has had success in the league AS a leadoff man.

 

That right there makes him an upgrade. The last time we had that was the 2nd half of 2003---which was also, perhaps not coincidentally, the last time we went to the playoffs.

[srbin84]

He's a leadoff man who has had success in the league AS a leadoff man.

 

That right there makes him an upgrade. The last time we had that was the 2nd half of 2003---which was also, perhaps not coincidentally, the last time we went to the playoffs.

 

I think people aren't used to seeing a good leadoff man on the Cubs that they forget the importance of having a prototypical leadoff man in the lineup. I just can't see how putting a guy like Wilkerson at the top would help us score more runs than Pierre, even if he does have a higher OPS. We'll have to wait until the season starts to see for sure though, but if Pierre scores 100+ runs, I'd consider it a very good trade.

[UK1679666180]

I've read a lot of criticism of Pierre since we made the trade. Are there better leadoff men in the league? Yes. Can we come up with stats that show Pierre isn't as effective an offensive player as he is perceived to be? Sure. But despite all of that, he is going to completely transform the offense and make help the Cubs score more runs and win more games this year. He is replacing Corey Patterson, probably the worst starting position player in the majors last year and possibly the worst leadoff man in Cubs history. Replacing him with Pierre (and I think the Pierre is a slightly above average leadoff man) is like replacing Jacque Jones with a 2001 fully juiced and healthy Barry Bonds. That's just how bad and detrimental to the team Patterson was in the leadoff spot.

 

I won't go into much detail as why the Cubs leadoff hitters of '05 being replaced by Pierre is nowhere near the impact of replacing a below avg corner OF'er (Jones) with the greatest single season in MLB history (Bonds of '01).

 

But, Patterson was hitting leadoff less than 25% of the time last year as Hairston led the Cubs in leadoff ABs with 306.

 

Hairston of '05 had an OBP of .342 leading off. Pierre in '05 had an OBP of .322 leading off. If the Cubs would've given Hairston the chance to start and leadoff (when he wasn't injured) more than likely would've been better off with Hairston leading off than Pierre last year. For his career, Pierre has a .355 OBP, which isn't too far off of what I'd expect fron Hairston.

 

To put it in perspective, if the Cubs went w/Hairston (CF) and Walker (2B) over Pierre (CF) and Perez (2B), the Cubs would be better off offensively with Hairston and Walker.

 

Pierre is the best option at leadoff currently, but this offense won't make any dramatic improvements b/c of him, especially if Perez gets a fair share of ABs hitting 2nd.

 

Having Murton for a full season will have a greater impact on this offense than Pierre. Baker could've easily negated the gaping hole with the 1-2 hitters if he could've put together a decent batting order last year.

[Soul]

I've read a lot of criticism of Pierre since we made the trade. Are there better leadoff men in the league? Yes. Can we come up with stats that show Pierre isn't as effective an offensive player as he is perceived to be? Sure. But despite all of that, he is going to completely transform the offense and make help the Cubs score more runs and win more games this year. He is replacing Corey Patterson, probably the worst starting position player in the majors last year and possibly the worst leadoff man in Cubs history. Replacing him with Pierre (and I think the Pierre is a slightly above average leadoff man) is like replacing Jacque Jones with a 2001 fully juiced and healthy Barry Bonds. That's just how bad and detrimental to the team Patterson was in the leadoff spot.

 

I won't go into much detail as why the Cubs leadoff hitters of '05 being replaced by Pierre is nowhere near the impact of replacing a below avg corner OF'er (Jones) with the greatest single season in MLB history (Bonds of '01).

 

But, Patterson was hitting leadoff less than 25% of the time last year as Hairston led the Cubs in leadoff ABs with 306.

 

Hairston of '05 had an OBP of .342 leading off. Pierre in '05 had an OBP of .322 leading off. If the Cubs would've given Hairston the chance to start and leadoff (when he wasn't injured) more than likely would've been better off with Hairston leading off than Pierre last year. For his career, Pierre has a .355 OBP, which isn't too far off of what I'd expect fron Hairston.

 

To put it in perspective, if the Cubs went w/Hairston (CF) and Walker (2B) over Pierre (CF) and Perez (2B), the Cubs would be better off offensively with Hairston and Walker.

 

Pierre is the best option at leadoff currently, but this offense won't make any dramatic improvements b/c of him, especially if Perez gets a fair share of ABs hitting 2nd.

 

Having Murton for a full season will have a greater impact on this offense than Pierre. Baker could've easily negated the gaping hole with the 1-2 hitters if he could've put together a decent batting order last year.

 

Hairston doesn't steal a base like Pierre, UK. Hairston is junk. He's done nothing since coming here except play spot duty at positions we would have needed much better talent to succeed. If he leads off/starts @ 2nd, we're in trouble.

[srbin84]

 

I won't go into much detail as why the Cubs leadoff hitters of '05 being replaced by Pierre is nowhere near the impact of replacing a below avg corner OF'er (Jones) with the greatest single season in MLB history (Bonds of '01).

 

But, Patterson was hitting leadoff less than 25% of the time last year as Hairston led the Cubs in leadoff ABs with 306.

 

Hairston of '05 had an OBP of .342 leading off. Pierre in '05 had an OBP of .322 leading off. If the Cubs would've given Hairston the chance to start and leadoff (when he wasn't injured) more than likely would've been better off with Hairston leading off than Pierre last year. For his career, Pierre has a .355 OBP, which isn't too far off of what I'd expect fron Hairston.

 

To put it in perspective, if the Cubs went w/Hairston (CF) and Walker (2B) over Pierre (CF) and Perez (2B), the Cubs would be better off offensively with Hairston and Walker.

 

Pierre is the best option at leadoff currently, but this offense won't make any dramatic improvements b/c of him, especially if Perez gets a fair share of ABs hitting 2nd.

 

Having Murton for a full season will have a greater impact on this offense than Pierre. Baker could've easily negated the gaping hole with the 1-2 hitters if he could've put together a decent batting order last year.

 

I've always been a huge Hairston fan and yeah, I know Patterson wasn't in the leadoff position the whole season, but when he was, we had to have had more than 25% of our losses. I think Pierre and Hairston at the top would be a nice little combo, perhaps a poor mans version of the 2003 Marlins with Pierre and Castillo. I like what Walker brings too much to bench him though.

 

For anyone who is interested, Patterson's leadoff numbers last year:

 

128 ABs .211/.263/.359 37 Ks 8 BBs 14 runs (5 on homers)

[Fred Hornkohl]

I've always been a huge Hairston fan and yeah, I know Patterson wasn't in the leadoff position the whole season, but when he was, we had to have had more than 25% of our losses. I think Pierre and Hairston at the top would be a nice little combo, perhaps a poor mans version of the 2003 Marlins with Pierre and Castillo. I like what Walker brings too much to bench him though.

 

For anyone who is interested, Patterson's leadoff numbers last year:

 

128 ABs .211/.263/.359 37 Ks 8 BBs 14 runs (5 on homers)

 

Team record by leadoff hitter

Patterson          15   14   0.517
Hairston           39   37   0.513
Macias              4    4   0.500
Perez              13   13   0.500
Theriot             1    1   0.500
Lawton              7   11   0.389
Gerut               0    1   0.000

Totals             79   83   0.488

[UK1679666180]

Hairston doesn't steal a base like Pierre, UK. Hairston is junk. He's done nothing since coming here except play spot duty at positions we would have needed much better talent to succeed. If he leads off/starts @ 2nd, we're in trouble.

 

The huge difference in steals between Pierre and Hairston didn't make up the huge difference in OBP that Hairston had over Pierre last year.

 

Hairston was a better leadoff hitter last year than Pierre.

 

What if Hairston starts at 2B and hits 2nd in the order, are the Cubs still in trouble?

[CubinNY]

I've always been a huge Hairston fan and yeah, I know Patterson wasn't in the leadoff position the whole season, but when he was, we had to have had more than 25% of our losses. I think Pierre and Hairston at the top would be a nice little combo, perhaps a poor mans version of the 2003 Marlins with Pierre and Castillo. I like what Walker brings too much to bench him though.

 

For anyone who is interested, Patterson's leadoff numbers last year:

 

128 ABs .211/.263/.359 37 Ks 8 BBs 14 runs (5 on homers)

 

Team record by leadoff hitter

Patterson          15   14   0.517
Hairston           39   37   0.513
Macias              4    4   0.500
Perez              13   13   0.500
Theriot             1    1   0.500
Lawton              7   11   0.389
Gerut               0    1   0.000

Totals             79   83   0.488

 

As always, nice work Fred!

[srbin84]

Wow, I'm really surprised to see that stat, thanks for posting it. Regardless, we didnt win those games because of what Patterson did, other guys stepped it up.

[Soul]

Hairston doesn't steal a base like Pierre, UK. Hairston is junk. He's done nothing since coming here except play spot duty at positions we would have needed much better talent to succeed. If he leads off/starts @ 2nd, we're in trouble.

 

The huge difference in steals between Pierre and Hairston didn't make up the huge difference in OBP that Hairston had over Pierre last year.

 

Hairston was a better leadoff hitter last year than Pierre.

 

What if Hairston starts at 2B and hits 2nd in the order, are the Cubs still in trouble?

 

I should qualify that. I think we're in dire trouble regardless.

 

That said, I'd much rather have Walker playing 2nd and hitting 2nd than Hairston. I'd rather Hairston come off the bench.

[UBlink]

Wow, I'm really surprised to see that stat, thanks for posting it. Regardless, we didnt win those games because of what Patterson did, other guys stepped it up.

 

Yeah, but the point is that upgrading the leadoff man is not likely to make a significant impact on team results.

[srbin84]

Wow, I'm really surprised to see that stat, thanks for posting it. Regardless, we didnt win those games because of what Patterson did, other guys stepped it up.

 

Yeah, but the point is that upgrading the leadoff man is not likely to make a significant impact on team results.

 

I don't know, I think over 162 games, a team with a guy with a .250 OBP is going to suck unless the rest of the lineup is loaded.