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Posted
I understand smallball completely. If trying to move the runner over is a worst case scenario, then it's not small-ball.

 

Sorry, but you immediately contradict yourself here. Moving a runner over is playing for one run. Playing for one run is small ball. I have no issues with calling it fundamentals either, because nearly all aspects of small ball would be considered fundamentals by those who advocate it.

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Old-Timey Member
Posted (edited)
I understand smallball completely. If trying to move the runner over is a worst case scenario, then it's not small-ball.

 

Sorry, but you immediately contradict yourself here. Moving a runner over is playing for one run. Playing for one run is small ball. I have no issues with calling it fundamentals either, because nearly all aspects of small ball would be considered fundamentals by those who advocate it.

There's a difference between trying to move a runner over as the primary goal of the batter and settling for moving him over after failing to drive him in or advance him along with a basehit, though. A batter bunting on the first pitch is different than a batter swinging away until getting to a 2-strike count, shortening up his swing, and then hitting the ball to the right side.

Edited by Jon
Posted

A couple of things. I have no problem saying the cubs are an average offense, thats probably the case. I do think with all the changes since 2003 , they are moving toward a better than average offense with a potential for more permanence. The Juan leadoff - small ball argument. 1. There will always be a place for playing for a run , to not do so as a blanket statement is as moronic as trying to steal or bunt every time there is a runner on first. So juan brings increased value with his ability to help create a run in a critical situation. 2. I wish he was the perfect leadoff guy , who could run and hit with power , along with walking even more. (rickey henderson) They dont grow on trees. He is good at what he does and is way better than what we have had. I think his approach right or wrong is hit oriented. Because he is a high contact guy , who realizes his lack of power , along with the horses behind him in the order means he is going to draw strikes thrown , more often than not.

 

So i believe he has built his game around hitting the first good one he sees. I have no problem with that as long as he is not swinging at balls over his head or in the dirt. or if he will take a walk against a wild man.

I think he is going to bring more good than bad. What that equates to , will have to be seen. Have a good one. Coach L

Old-Timey Member
Posted

The break-even line in the NL last year was on average 69.9%

 

I don't feel like breaking down Pierre's lines last year, but odds are if he's cleared 75%, he's achieving a net positive for the team.

 

Although how much of a positive that is can be up for debate.

Where did you find that? Do they have a breakdown for previous years?

 

I've seen 66%, 71%, 75% (from BP, I believe), and 77%. I don't really know what to think of the 66% since that figure is from the early 1980s. I read one study that had the break-even point in the low 60s through the 1960s, but I'd have to believe it's higher than that now.

 

Pierre's career rate is 73.5% and over the past three years, just 73.2%. Even if he is clearing the break-even point, I don't think it's having much of a positive effect.

Posted
Well, if I took a worst case possible scenario then yeah our offense could be pretty bad. Our main problem last year was lack of OBP. We've upgraded OBP at three positions. Two of those three positions could be a significant upgrade(CF and LF). The offense in my opinion is upgraded.

 

I'm not taking the worst case, nor am I saying it'll be pretty bad. What I'm saying is that when you take into account all that can happen, it'll probably be pretty similar to how it's been for years.

 

I think CF will be significantly better than last year (although Florida's CF production was only better than the Cubs last year, so Pierre has to improve on those numbers), LF will be better, SS should be a little better (I fully expect Neifi to start a lot, and I think Cedeno will be fine, but nothing special), 1B will be a little worse. 2B depends on Walker (with him, it'll be same, without it'll be worse). 3B will be same, maybe a little better. C will be same, maybe slightly worse. RF will be just as bad. The bench will suck. Overall the offense should be average to slightly above average. It'll take a whole lot of fortunate circumstances to be top 3. And we're going to have to burn up all our fortune on the pitching.

Posted

 

There's a big difference there. Maddux in his prime struck out a decent amount of hitters, and his hallmark was exceptional control. Pierre essentially ignores one of the most important parts of hitting, hitting for extra bases, in lieu of not striking out, which isn't nearly as important. When Pierre sacrifices power for contact, it lessens his offensive value.

 

Offensive value and power are not mutually exclusive. His offensive value lies in his ability in getting basehits, not striking out, stealing bases and scoring runs

 

Yes, but in his quest to not strike out, he loses power. The power is much more valuable than the ability to not strike out. By taking a "contact at all costs" approach, he limits the player he could be.

 

You're defeating your own argument. I don't think anyone is going to try argue that Pierre doesn't give up power when he tries to hit for contact. He does. However, you also need to realize that an increase in power would probably lower his amount of contact, which would lower his amount of hits. In the end, Pierre AND this team are much better off having Juan do what he's best at AND what this team needs.

 

Quite frankly we have MORE than enough power to get this team through the season. What the Cubs have been missing is a/some speed/OBP/guys who take more than 3 pitches types of players. Juan Pierre should fill that void nicely.

Posted

 

There's a big difference there. Maddux in his prime struck out a decent amount of hitters, and his hallmark was exceptional control. Pierre essentially ignores one of the most important parts of hitting, hitting for extra bases, in lieu of not striking out, which isn't nearly as important. When Pierre sacrifices power for contact, it lessens his offensive value.

 

Offensive value and power are not mutually exclusive. His offensive value lies in his ability in getting basehits, not striking out, stealing bases and scoring runs

 

Yes, but in his quest to not strike out, he loses power. The power is much more valuable than the ability to not strike out. By taking a "contact at all costs" approach, he limits the player he could be.

 

You're defeating your own argument. I don't think anyone is going to try argue that Pierre doesn't give up power when he tries to hit for contact. He does. However, you also need to realize that an increase in power would probably lower his amount of contact, which would lower his amount of hits. In the end, Pierre AND this team are much better off having Juan do what he's best at AND what this team needs.

 

Quite frankly we have MORE than enough power to get this team through the season. What the Cubs have been missing is a/some speed/OBP/guys who take more than 3 pitches types of players. Juan Pierre should fill that void nicely.

 

Read the rest of the responses, Pierre's OBP would likely not be damaged by the approach I'm advocating.

Posted
I don't think there's anything to be gained by talking about Juan changing his game. He is what he is. Sure his game leaves a lot to be desired, but it's not going to improve. Increased production would have to be achieved by surrounding him with better personel.
Posted

 

There's a big difference there. Maddux in his prime struck out a decent amount of hitters, and his hallmark was exceptional control. Pierre essentially ignores one of the most important parts of hitting, hitting for extra bases, in lieu of not striking out, which isn't nearly as important. When Pierre sacrifices power for contact, it lessens his offensive value.

 

Offensive value and power are not mutually exclusive. His offensive value lies in his ability in getting basehits, not striking out, stealing bases and scoring runs

 

Yes, but in his quest to not strike out, he loses power. The power is much more valuable than the ability to not strike out. By taking a "contact at all costs" approach, he limits the player he could be.

 

You're defeating your own argument. I don't think anyone is going to try argue that Pierre doesn't give up power when he tries to hit for contact. He does. However, you also need to realize that an increase in power would probably lower his amount of contact, which would lower his amount of hits. In the end, Pierre AND this team are much better off having Juan do what he's best at AND what this team needs.

 

Quite frankly we have MORE than enough power to get this team through the season. What the Cubs have been missing is a/some speed/OBP/guys who take more than 3 pitches types of players. Juan Pierre should fill that void nicely.

 

Read the rest of the responses, Pierre's OBP would likely not be damaged by the approach I'm advocating.

 

But what you're advocating isn't an adjustment. It's a rather drastic change of mindset for a player who's emplored his approach for HIS WHOLE LIFE. He's also been very successful at it. To say he could make these changes without having it adversely affect his game seems rather ludicrous.

Posted
I don't think there's anything to be gained by talking about Juan changing his game. He is what he is. Sure his game leaves a lot to be desired, but it's not going to improve. Increased production would have to be achieved by surrounding him with better personel.

 

Exaclty. It's not like we're talking about Corey Patterson here, we're talking about a consistently productive player. He's also advanced enough in his career to where a successful change in approach should be that much harder to come by.

Posted

 

There's a big difference there. Maddux in his prime struck out a decent amount of hitters, and his hallmark was exceptional control. Pierre essentially ignores one of the most important parts of hitting, hitting for extra bases, in lieu of not striking out, which isn't nearly as important. When Pierre sacrifices power for contact, it lessens his offensive value.

 

Offensive value and power are not mutually exclusive. His offensive value lies in his ability in getting basehits, not striking out, stealing bases and scoring runs

 

Yes, but in his quest to not strike out, he loses power. The power is much more valuable than the ability to not strike out. By taking a "contact at all costs" approach, he limits the player he could be.

 

You're defeating your own argument. I don't think anyone is going to try argue that Pierre doesn't give up power when he tries to hit for contact. He does. However, you also need to realize that an increase in power would probably lower his amount of contact, which would lower his amount of hits. In the end, Pierre AND this team are much better off having Juan do what he's best at AND what this team needs.

 

Quite frankly we have MORE than enough power to get this team through the season. What the Cubs have been missing is a/some speed/OBP/guys who take more than 3 pitches types of players. Juan Pierre should fill that void nicely.

 

Is it possible that Pierre's lack of power costs him walks and hurts his OBP? His inability to occasionally turn on a pitch creates a lack of respect from the opposing pitcher. If I was pitching to Pierre, especially with the bases empty, I would not be afraid to throw the ball right down the heart of the plate, because worst case it turns into a double or triple. I feel if Pierre would show just enough power to force pitchers to acknowledge the fact that Pierre can and will hit the ball out of the park, he'd be pitched to a little more carefully and hopefully draw more walks.

 

Are there many low-power (<.400SLG) players who've consistently drawn a lot of walks and maintained a high OBP? Brett Butler comes to mind - his career OBP (.377) is actually higher than his career SLG (.376) :shock:

Posted

If I was pitching to Pierre, especially with the bases empty, I would not be afraid to throw the ball right down the heart of the plate, because worst case it turns into a double or triple.

 

Depends of the quality of your outfield defense. If you are pitching for the Giants you have to be careful with Pierre. You wouldn't want all of Pierre's hits to go for extra bases.

Posted

Pierre is what Pierre is. Nonetheless, I think he'd be better served by better plate discipline and showing more selectivity in what he swings at -- even with two strikes. Pierre swings at a lot of balls, it's a simple fact. Granted, he fouls many of them off. However, if Pierre can lay off some of those 'waste' pitches and make the pitcher throw more strikes, lest Pierre draw a walk, he'd see more and better pitches to hit. The improvement in plate discipline would create more walks and more hits, and thus a concomitant increase in his OBP.

 

If he shows good plate discipline, I don't care if he's adding that much more power.

 

Pierre will be a fine addition to the Cubs, and if he can give us an OBP of .350+, I'll be pretty happy with his performance. I don't love the trade, but he's a solid acquisition. Unlike, say, Jacque Jones.

Posted
Pierre is what Pierre is. Nonetheless, I think he'd be better served by better plate discipline and showing more selectivity in what he swings at -- even with two strikes. Pierre swings at a lot of balls, it's a simple fact. Granted, he fouls many of them off. However, if Pierre can lay off some of those 'waste' pitches and make the pitcher throw more strikes, lest Pierre draw a walk, he'd see more and better pitches to hit. The improvement in plate discipline would create more walks and more hits, and thus a concomitant increase in his OBP.

 

If he shows good plate discipline, I don't care if he's adding that much more power.

 

Pierre will be a fine addition to the Cubs, and if he can give us an OBP of .350+, I'll be pretty happy with his performance. I don't love the trade, but he's a solid acquisition. Unlike, say, Jacque Jones.

 

I can agree with this. What I don't agree with is him trying to swing harder. It's not going to happen. He can increase his OBP via discipline, not by scaring pitchers into thinking he has power. And players can gain patience as they get a little older. I wouldn't count on it happening, but it could happen if he tried.

Posted
Pierre is what Pierre is. Nonetheless, I think he'd be better served by better plate discipline and showing more selectivity in what he swings at -- even with two strikes. Pierre swings at a lot of balls, it's a simple fact. Granted, he fouls many of them off. However, if Pierre can lay off some of those 'waste' pitches and make the pitcher throw more strikes, lest Pierre draw a walk, he'd see more and better pitches to hit. The improvement in plate discipline would create more walks and more hits, and thus a concomitant increase in his OBP.

 

If he shows good plate discipline, I don't care if he's adding that much more power.

 

Pierre will be a fine addition to the Cubs, and if he can give us an OBP of .350+, I'll be pretty happy with his performance. I don't love the trade, but he's a solid acquisition. Unlike, say, Jacque Jones.

 

I can agree with this. What I don't agree with is him trying to swing harder. It's not going to happen. He can increase his OBP via discipline, not by scaring pitchers into thinking he has power. And players can gain patience as they get a little older. I wouldn't count on it happening, but it could happen if he tried.

 

Agreed. Pierre just doesn't have that much power. I don't want to see him trying to crush the ball. Because then we'll see him popping out or flying out. Just take good, solid swings at the right kind of pitches. Don't foul off non-strikes pitches, just for the sake of fouling them off. Plate discipline is one of the best things that every player, regardless of hitting style, can learn.

 

Now, I don't think it'll happen -- let's be realistic here, these are the Cubs and their Manager is Dusty Baker. Not exactly MLB's paragons of plate discipline. The good thing about Juan is that he is a hard worker, and in my opinion, that's the kind of player who continues to improve his game.

 

I hope Pierre has a great season.

Posted

A few corrections about Pierre’s game:

 

Last year Pierre was among the MLB leaders in TAKING the first pitch (8th among the 341 players with 200 or more AB). Last year Pierre only swung at 11.4% of first pitches where 27.6% was the MLB average).

 

Pierre swung and missed pitches 2.5% of the time (4th MLB. The average was 8.0%).

 

Pierre was about league average at Pitches Per Plate Appearance (with 3.69 while 3.75 was average). That is a very high total given that he swings and misses so rarely.

 

Pierre was NOT among the MLB leaders in foul %. As a rule contact hitters do not foul of a high % of pitches.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/swinging_taking.php

 

Also, Pierre’s WORST seasons occurred when he had the most K’s:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486

 

Finally if fewer HR are hit because fewer players are doing steroids then speed and SB have added value.

Posted
I understand smallball completely. If trying to move the runner over is a worst case scenario, then it's not small-ball.

 

Sorry, but you immediately contradict yourself here. Moving a runner over is playing for one run. Playing for one run is small ball. I have no issues with calling it fundamentals either, because nearly all aspects of small ball would be considered fundamentals by those who advocate it.

 

No contradiction there, moving a runner over is a worst case scenario in a productive AB, you still want to try and drive him in on a base hit.

 

You have 3 productive possibilities...

 

1)HR

2)S, DB, TR drives him in

3)Sacrifice

 

Sacrifice whether by bunt or just trying to hit it to the 2B, is the least productive of the 3. Unless he is behind in the count w/two strikes should he settle for #3.

 

If I have confidence in my #2 hitter, I want him to the same stroke that would lead to a line drive rather than a G-4. A hitter's primary goal in small ball is to move the runner over, w/out small-ball the primary goal is to drive him in. If he unable to drive him in, the worst he should do is to move him to 3rd.

 

You also able to be fundamentally sound to be productive in a Earl Weaver type of offense, still have to work the count, get on base, be mechanically sound at the plate, get a good pitch to hit, and drive the ball.

Posted

 

There's a big difference there. Maddux in his prime struck out a decent amount of hitters, and his hallmark was exceptional control. Pierre essentially ignores one of the most important parts of hitting, hitting for extra bases, in lieu of not striking out, which isn't nearly as important. When Pierre sacrifices power for contact, it lessens his offensive value.

 

Offensive value and power are not mutually exclusive. His offensive value lies in his ability in getting basehits, not striking out, stealing bases and scoring runs

 

Yes, but in his quest to not strike out, he loses power. The power is much more valuable than the ability to not strike out. By taking a "contact at all costs" approach, he limits the player he could be.

 

You're defeating your own argument. I don't think anyone is going to try argue that Pierre doesn't give up power when he tries to hit for contact. He does. However, you also need to realize that an increase in power would probably lower his amount of contact, which would lower his amount of hits. In the end, Pierre AND this team are much better off having Juan do what he's best at AND what this team needs.

 

Quite frankly we have MORE than enough power to get this team through the season. What the Cubs have been missing is a/some speed/OBP/guys who take more than 3 pitches types of players. Juan Pierre should fill that void nicely.

 

Is it possible that Pierre's lack of power costs him walks and hurts his OBP? His inability to occasionally turn on a pitch creates a lack of respect from the opposing pitcher. If I was pitching to Pierre, especially with the bases empty, I would not be afraid to throw the ball right down the heart of the plate, because worst case it turns into a double or triple. I feel if Pierre would show just enough power to force pitchers to acknowledge the fact that Pierre can and will hit the ball out of the park, he'd be pitched to a little more carefully and hopefully draw more walks.

 

Are there many low-power (<.400SLG) players who've consistently drawn a lot of walks and maintained a high OBP? Brett Butler comes to mind - his career OBP (.377) is actually higher than his career SLG (.376) :shock:

 

 

 

ummmm......Pierre will never ever scare pitchers into pitching around him. Even if he manages to hit 10 HRs, it ain't going to happen. They will always be afraid of giving him a free base, and you really need a LOT more power than he has to get pitchers to pitch around him.

 

Haven't we learned that you can't drastically change someone's approach at the plate? Pierre will never by a slugger. Never ever ever.

 

That's not why we got him, and that's not why he's valuable.

Posted

This was a very interesting and insightful topic to read.

 

Does anyone know of a stat that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a leadoff hitter? TransTiger brought up some points about Pierre needing to hit for more power. To me it seems that he should get some credit for the 65 stolen bases, because to me power is more than just homeruns. Doubles and triples are very advantageous to a players slugging percentage. It seems that there should be an adjusted leadoff hitters slugging stat. The hitter should get credit for stolen bases, be penalized for caught stealing, and use normal slugging stats on top of that.

Posted
This was a very interesting and insightful topic to read.

 

Does anyone know of a stat that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a leadoff hitter? TransTiger brought up some points about Pierre needing to hit for more power. To me it seems that he should get some credit for the 65 stolen bases, because to me power is more than just homeruns. Doubles and triples are very advantageous to a players slugging percentage. It seems that there should be an adjusted leadoff hitters slugging stat. The hitter should get credit for stolen bases, be penalized for caught stealing, and use normal slugging stats on top of that.

 

Some people like to add SB's to SLG, and subtract CS from OBP, but that gives a stolen base the same value as a single, half a double, and a third of a triple, which isn't the case considering what those hits do to advance runners.

Posted
This was a very interesting and insightful topic to read.

 

Does anyone know of a stat that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a leadoff hitter? TransTiger brought up some points about Pierre needing to hit for more power. To me it seems that he should get some credit for the 65 stolen bases, because to me power is more than just homeruns. Doubles and triples are very advantageous to a players slugging percentage. It seems that there should be an adjusted leadoff hitters slugging stat. The hitter should get credit for stolen bases, be penalized for caught stealing, and use normal slugging stats on top of that.

 

Some people like to add SB's to SLG, and subtract CS from OBP, but that gives a stolen base the same value as a single, half a double, and a third of a triple, which isn't the case considering what those hits do to advance runners.

 

 

Yes, but it doesn't seem fair to subtract CS from OBP either. So a guy can single in 2 runs, then get CS at 2B with 2 out and he doesn't even get credit for getting on base to begin with? This is an imperfect way of looking at the stats.

 

The thing with SB is that the runner often dictates when he's going. There are some situations when stealing helps a lot more than CS hurts. Steal 2B with 2 outs, and 30% of the time, you might score on the next hitter. Get caught stealing, and 70% of the time, the next batter wouldn've been out anyways. There is a big advantage to being at 2B with 2 outs as opposed to first. But is there an advantage at being at 3B as opposed to 2B with 0 out? Not as much. The CS there is very costly. And what about a guy who gets gunned down and a broken hit and run? Why should the stats count all CS the same? It doesn't make sense.

 

Here is the point I'm trying to make about that stat- because the runner and situtation dictates when the runner tries to steal, *the relative contribution that SB theoretically adds to SLG should exceed the relative contribution that CS detracts from OBP*.

 

Is a guy who always hits home runs in tight games more valuable than a guy who always hits them in blowouts? Yes. But is there a stat to quantify it? Not really. People here just pan "clutch factor" stats. But the assumption is that home runs and hits occur somewhat randomly and when they occur in the game is somewhat out of the batters control. This is not the case for SB's. You control when you try and run, and its always a calculated risk.

 

Speed is also valuable on the bases beyond SB. How many other times is speed just not counted in the stats? I love Aram, but I can't count the number of times another guy would've scored if he were running. You can site runs scored, but we all know its full of other factors. Also, no pitcher wants a speedy guy on base. It bugs them. It opens up holes in the IF.

 

And fouling off pitches and not swinging and missing is valuable!! It pisses pitchers off and throws them off their game. There are no stats to back this up, because the stats would be too riddled with variables. But how can anyone who has watched baseball dispute this?

Posted
Pierre is what Pierre is. Nonetheless, I think he'd be better served by better plate discipline and showing more selectivity in what he swings at -- even with two strikes. Pierre swings at a lot of balls, it's a simple fact. Granted, he fouls many of them off. However, if Pierre can lay off some of those 'waste' pitches and make the pitcher throw more strikes, lest Pierre draw a walk, he'd see more and better pitches to hit. The improvement in plate discipline would create more walks and more hits, and thus a concomitant increase in his OBP.

 

If he shows good plate discipline, I don't care if he's adding that much more power.

 

Pierre will be a fine addition to the Cubs, and if he can give us an OBP of .350+, I'll be pretty happy with his performance. I don't love the trade, but he's a solid acquisition. Unlike, say, Jacque Jones.

 

i think juan's pitch-recognition leaves a lot to be desired. if he was better at it, or could slightly alter his game to become better at recognizing pitches, he'd hit for more power and he'd take more walks.

 

when sammy went to the toe-tap method under pentland and quit trying to live on bat-speed alone, he became a much more productive hitter. he began picking the zones in which he would swing at pitches. his strikeouts still came, but his walks went way up, and his power exploded (call it steroids if you want).

 

i don't think it's too much of a stretch to ask such a "hardworking, self-made player" like pierre to work on his game in that manner. it seems he would be willing to make himself better- and taking errant pitches that he would normally foul off isn't tweaking his game too much. i wouldn't ask him to stop stealing bases-just to start working harder at learning how to steal them. he's faster than say.....carlos beltran, probably, yet beltran seems to be a much smarter baserunner given his efficiency rates. beltran makes the steal and incredibly effective weapon, pierre could do that, considering he's one of the "hardest working players in the game".

 

in summation- pierre needs to:

 

1. shrink his strike zone or work on pitch recognition so he's not slapping at juicy fastballs and flicking the bat at bad pitches. driving a nice pitch into the gap and taking third based on his superior speed would be a valuable improvement--as would walking down to first base after not swinging at a terrible pitch instead of fouling it off.

 

2. improve his effectiveness on the basepaths by becoming a smarter baserunner.

 

i don't think that's too much to ask of him, given his tendency to hard work.

Posted
His running isn't particularly effective, though. He was 77% on the bases last season and in 2004, his best year as a Marlin, a dismal 65%. It's not like his stolen base attempts are really making up for the lack of power numbers.

 

He was not good at all at the plate last year and that worries me. If he's healthy and puts up a .374 OBP again, great, but I'm not getting too excited about him yet.

 

I don't really buy the fact that Pierre would be a more effective player if never ran at all vs. what he does now. I do hope he will be more efficient this year though. Patterson and Lee have been pretty efficient under Baker, hopefully we see the same from Juan.

Posted
in summation- pierre needs to:

 

1. shrink his strike zone or work on pitch recognition so he's not slapping at juicy fastballs and flicking the bat at bad pitches. driving a nice pitch into the gap and taking third based on his superior speed would be a valuable improvement--as would walking down to first base after not swinging at a terrible pitch instead of fouling it off.

 

This is exactly what I was advocating earlier. Trying to be more selective and find a pitch to drive early in the count doesn't take away from anything Pierre does. With two strikes he can still be his slappy self and annoy the bejeebers out of pitchers. The only downside to being more selective and taking harder cuts at pitches early in the count is more 2 strike counts. However, because Pierre currently slaps the ball no matter the count, that's not really an issue, or at worst a relatively minor one compared to the improvement in extra bases.

Posted
Pierre should be fine at the top of the order.He may bunt more with Wrigleys high grass.Speed puts pressure on the defense.It may allow the number 2 hitter to see more fastballs.I'm more concerned about his defense.His arm and routes are not highly regarded.

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