Cubs May Use Four Man Rotation and Other Rumblings...

[rawaction]

As I seem to do every year at this time. Here's my early MLB schedule.

 

NL-

Colorado @ SD

Cincy @ LA

St. Louis @ Arizona

CUBS @ Milwaukee

Philly @ Atlanta

Washington @ Florida

Pitt @ Houston

NYM @ SF

 

AL-

Boston @ TB

NYY @ Toronto

CWS @ Minnesota

Cleveland @ Anaheim

KC @ Seattle

Baltimore @ Texas

Detroit @ Oakland

 

SF and Oakland are the only non-warm or domed games. Switch which cities the teams go to in the 2nd series of the year. That at least gives the weather a week to get warm. Of course, I know there are traditions like Cincy has to start every season at home for some reason.

[goonys evil twin]

Look at the 4-man rotation this way: It will give us a better chance of winning our early games, possibly allowing us to start hot and hang on to first place all year.

 

I like this move.

 

More of Maddux in April doesn't necessarily give you a better chance to win those games.

 

I think it would be tough to start out the season with the 5 man fully intact. If you did, Zambrano would start April 3 (opening day) and then not again until April 11, with only 4 games between those dates. That is 7 off days. You spend the greater part of March getting guys used to 4 days rest. I wouldn't want Zambrano getting more than 5 days rest (pitch on the 9th) at that point in the season. Rest is great, but regular work is also necessary. You have to skip at least one guy early, to keep guys on reasonable schedules.

 

I hate all these off days, they will be much more valuable in June, July or August.

 

I think I'd go:

Zambrano, off, Prior, off, Maddux, Williams, Zambrano, off, Prior, Maddux Williams, Rusch (unless Wood is healthy or Hill is miraculously called up), Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Williams, Rusch (unless Wood is healthy or Hill is miraculously called up), off, Zambrano, Prior, Maddux.

 

So, to start the season Zambrano would get 5, 5, 5 and 4 days rest between starts. Prior would get 5, 4, 5, 5 days.

[rawaction]

Look at the 4-man rotation this way: It will give us a better chance of winning our early games, possibly allowing us to start hot and hang on to first place all year.

 

I like this move.

 

More of Maddux in April doesn't necessarily give you a better chance to win those games.

 

I think it would be tough to start out the season with the 5 man fully intact. If you did, Zambrano would start April 3 (opening day) and then not again until April 11, with only 4 games between those dates. That is 7 off days. You spend the greater part of March getting guys used to 4 days rest. I wouldn't want Zambrano getting more than 5 days rest (pitch on the 9th) at that point in the season. Rest is great, but regular work is also necessary. You have to skip at least one guy early, to keep guys on reasonable schedules.

 

I hate all these off days, they will be much more valuable in June, July or August.

 

I think I'd go:

Zambrano, off, Prior, off, Maddux, Williams, Zambrano, off, Prior, Maddux Williams, Rusch (unless Wood is healthy or Hill is miraculously called up), Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Williams, Rusch (unless Wood is healthy or Hill is miraculously called up), off, Zambrano, Prior, Maddux.

 

So, to start the season Zambrano would get 5, 5, 5 and 4 days rest between starts. Prior would get 5, 4, 5, 5 days.

 

That sounds like the best plan. I hate the offdays, and I'd rather go with a 4 than a 5 man rotation. The pitchers need the rest later in the year more than they do in April.

[UK1679666180]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

[Guest]

SF and Oakland are the only non-warm or domed games.

It's not San Diego, but the Bay area isn't exactly upstate New York in April, either. Typical high temperatures in early April are usually in the mid to upper 60s. A bit cool, particularly for night games, but still plenty comfortable to play baseball in.

[goonys evil twin]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

 

How do you deal with Zambrano's first trip through the rotation? Do you rest him from April 3 - 11? I think that is excessive, and quite possibly could lead to a poor outing or two early on as he adjusts to normal/extra rest.

[bmkhawk]

i thought there was a whole williamson trade thread way earlier.

 

viewtopic.php?t=28740

 

That link is not working for me for some reason

 

Works for me.

 

The 4-man rotation at this point is an awful awful awful awful idea.

very much agreed-we will be wanting that rest down the stretch-

 

It's only two-three weeks or so...and a max of one "extra" start for each pitcher during that time frame...still on normal four days rest. It's not *that* bad of an idea.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

 

If you add the fact that the Cubs may have a 12 man staff it makes it even better.

[Illini Iceman]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

 

My opinion is they should get Zambrano and Prior on the mound for as many starts as possible without giving them less than 4 days rest.

The issue is not the difference between the 4th and 5th starter it is the difference between the 5th starter and Zambrano or Prior. Getting them each a couple extra starts instead of Rusch could net the team a few extra wins.

[mhuber92211]

this won't help Hill's chances this spring.

[SouthSideRyan]

If they go with a 4 man rotation early, the 12 man pitching staff will be particularly maddening.

[frostwyrm]

this won't help Hill's chances this spring.

 

Does cold air make a breaking ball move more? I know conventional wisdom says thin air reduces movement, and cold air is denser than warm air. Maybe Hill's curve would move really well in Wrigley in April.

[UK1679666180]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

 

How do you deal with Zambrano's first trip through the rotation? Do you rest him from April 3 - 11? I think that is excessive, and quite possibly could lead to a poor outing or two early on as he adjusts to normal/extra rest.

 

If you know how to properly use his time between his starts, it could be more a benefit than a negative. Having him sit around for 10 days, won't accomplish anything, adjusting his program between the extended rest would be a benefit, beyond limiting his workload at the start of the season in cold weather.

 

If he throws 75-90 pitches off the mound on one of those off days, working on location, spotting his pitches, and not exerting him self by going 14-15 pitches per set (inning). Have him face live hitting, he'll get work, limit fatigue, and still get to work on specialzed areas of improvement.

Edited March 1, 2006 by UK

[UK1679666180]

My opinion is they should get Zambrano and Prior on the mound for as many starts as possible without giving them less than 4 days rest.

The issue is not the difference between the 4th and 5th starter it is the difference between the 5th starter and Zambrano or Prior. Getting them each a couple extra starts instead of Rusch could net the team a few extra wins.

 

I did the math earlier and it comes down to an extra start for Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, and Rusch. Baker and Rothschild have been very good at working the pitchers hard throughout the season and that includes early on, pitching is a tearing down process, the potential of two early wins of Prior (which isn't a given) and Zambrano over Williams isn't worth the potential of them wearing down in August. I see any difference between Williams and Maddux/Rusch as minimal at best.

 

Those two added starts of a better pitcher won't decide the season compared to how the pitching staff will be treated throughout the year.

[goonys evil twin]

I'll be disappointed if they go with a 4 man rotation, they have an opportunity to lessen the workload in colder weather and the difference between the 4th and 5th starter in that secnario is none as far as likely production. If there's an extended stretch where a starter gets too much, you bump him up, but there should be no reason why a starter scheduled for 5 days of rest has to get it bumped up to 4 days of rest.

 

I fail to see how the long-term benefits of an extra start skipped and the wear/tear is reduced compared to getting Zambrano and Prior an extra start and how that'll impact the standings.

 

How do you deal with Zambrano's first trip through the rotation? Do you rest him from April 3 - 11? I think that is excessive, and quite possibly could lead to a poor outing or two early on as he adjusts to normal/extra rest.

 

If you know how to properly use his time between his starts, it could be more a benefit than a negative. Having him sit around for 10 days, won't accomplish anything, adjusting his program between the extended rest would be a benefit, beyond limiting his workload at the start of the season in cold weather.

 

If he throws 75-90 pitches off the mound on one of those off days, working on location, spotting his pitches, and not exerting him self by going 14-15 pitches per set (inning). Have him face live hitting, he'll get work, limit fatigue, and still get to work on specialzed areas of improvement.

 

Zambrano coming off extra rest is not good.

 

Going with a 5 man rotation in the first week, with 2 off days would do absolutely nothing to help these guys down the line. 5 days rest is plenty.

[goonys evil twin]

My opinion is they should get Zambrano and Prior on the mound for as many starts as possible without giving them less than 4 days rest.

The issue is not the difference between the 4th and 5th starter it is the difference between the 5th starter and Zambrano or Prior. Getting them each a couple extra starts instead of Rusch could net the team a few extra wins.

 

I did the math earlier and it comes down to an extra start for Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, and Rusch. Baker and Rothschild have been very good at working the pitchers hard throughout the season and that includes early on, pitching is a tearing down process, the potential of two early wins of Prior (which isn't a given) and Zambrano over Williams isn't worth the potential of them wearing down in August. I see any difference between Williams and Maddux/Rusch as minimal at best.

 

Those two added starts of a better pitcher won't decide the season compared to how the pitching staff will be treated throughout the year.

 

And those 2 extra days rest for Zambrano won't do a damn thing to prevent the tear/wear down of the season. Rest will be valuable later, not the first week.

[UK1679666180]

Zambrano coming off extra rest is not good.

 

Going with a 5 man rotation in the first week, with 2 off days would do absolutely nothing to help these guys down the line. 5 days rest is plenty.

 

Zambrano/Prior coming off of 4 days after a simulated start is a good thing.

 

There's a much greater risk of increased fatigue during a regular start than a simulated one (if he needs work). If he has a rough outing and has 1 or 2 25-30 pitch innings, I don't care what part of the year it is, you're exposing him and it's probably worse early on with the weather and the muscles being tighter now rather than earlier.

 

And those 2 extra days rest for Zambrano won't do a damn thing to prevent the tear/wear down of the season. Rest will be valuable later, not the first week.

 

Sure it will, skipping a start even early on will help him. Rest is valuable early, middle, and later on in the season.

 

They should get starters as much recovery time and limit their fatigue as best as possible.

 

If Rothschild handled it properly, Zambrano would likely be better off with a simulated start vs. a regular season start.

[goonys evil twin]

If Rothschild handled it properly, Zambrano would likely be better off with a simulated start vs. a regular season start.

 

Health wise, you're always better off not starting a real game.

 

Realistically, it would be absurd to start the season with a 5 man rotation during that first week, with 2 off days. That rest would do next to no good when related to the entire season (in August, he's not going to feel any better because he had 2 extra days in April).

[UK1679666180]

Health wise, you're always better off not starting a real game.

 

Bingo.

 

Realistically, it would be absurd to start the season with a 5 man rotation during that first week, with 2 off days. That rest would do next to no good when related to the entire season (in August, he's not going to feel any better because he had 2 extra days in April).

 

I disagree, why not throw him out there for 120 pitches in April? You can't be careless with pitchers in April, just as you can't be in August. While a 4 man rotation would not be careless, they have an opportunity to use the extra days off. Pitching is a tearing down process, their arms should be held to around 95 pitches early on and use as much rest as possible if it's available.

 

The Cubs have a history of being able recognize that the health of a pitcher matters greatly to the outcome of a season, they haven;t figured a way to try and keep them healthly as possible.

 

They're going to wear down these pitchers regardless, even skipping one start in April will slow down that process. I'm hoping, Zambrano and Prior will be less fatigued in April, which will carry into May, and so on.

[bmkhawk]

edit--misread UK's post.

 

I'm still with Gooney on this one though. I don't see how pitching Z in a simulated game vs. another start in those first 2-3 weeks (on normal rest) really helps the team.

[goonys evil twin]

I disagree, why not throw him out there for 120 pitches in April? You can't be careless with pitchers in April, just as you can't be in August. While a 4 man rotation would not be careless, they have an opportunity to use the extra days off.

 

You just answered your own question. 4 days rest is normal, 5 days rest is already precautionary. 7 days rest is overkill and pointless, there is no benefit from those 2 extra days. Rest is far more valuable later in the season.

[UK1679666180]

If you're looking for proof on why I want them to limit the starter's workload early on. Zambrano on opening day threw 106 pitches in 5.2 innings in a 16-6 win.

 

That's opening day in a blow-out!

 

That's too many pitches in too short of a timeframe at any point of the season. Now, factor that's it was opening day and the game was over, the careless nature of how the Cubs have handled Zambrano impacts how I think they should trate him early on.

 

Zambrano avg'd 110 pitches in his 5 starts in April.

 

1 start of Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, & Rusch for Williams isn't worth potentially overworking Zambrano, Prior, Rusch, & Maddux early.

[UK1679666180]

I disagree, why not throw him out there for 120 pitches in April? You can't be careless with pitchers in April, just as you can't be in August. While a 4 man rotation would not be careless, they have an opportunity to use the extra days off.

 

You just answered your own question. 4 days rest is normal, 5 days rest is already precautionary. 7 days rest is overkill and pointless, there is no benefit from those 2 extra days. Rest is far more valuable later in the season.

 

Rest is valuable whenever you can get it. I like the extra recovery time as well as being able to control the workload of a simulated start.

[goonys evil twin]

1 start of Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, & Rusch for Williams isn't worth potentially overworking Zambrano, Prior, Rusch, & Maddux early.

 

5 days rest between his first 3 starts is hardly overworking.

 

If they do add those extra 2 days of rest early, it will probably just mean Dusty will feel more confident letting him approach 120 pitches early on. Keep him at 100 or lower, and let him go on 5, 5, 5 and 4 days rest. It will be perfectly acceptable.

 

120 pitches, 7 days off, 120 pitches isn't going to help a darn thing.

[goonys evil twin]

I disagree, why not throw him out there for 120 pitches in April? You can't be careless with pitchers in April, just as you can't be in August. While a 4 man rotation would not be careless, they have an opportunity to use the extra days off.

 

You just answered your own question. 4 days rest is normal, 5 days rest is already precautionary. 7 days rest is overkill and pointless, there is no benefit from those 2 extra days. Rest is far more valuable later in the season.

 

Rest is valuable whenever you can get it. I like the extra recovery time as well as being able to control the workload of a simulated start.

 

5 days is already extra recovery time. 7 is overkill, pointless, and could easily lead to further abuse later, when it matters.

 

Furthermore, while rest may be valuable whenever you can get it, it is not of the same value whenever you can get it. Rest in June/July/August is much more valuable than 2 extra days in April.