Buster Olney on the Cubs

[rocket]

Do you think Marquis Grissom will make the team? If he does, will he help the team?

-- Gregory M., Chicago

 

Can't say for certain whether Grissom will make the team, but if he did, he could platoon in right field with Jones, whose numbers against lefties aren't very good (Jones is a career .227 hitter vs. left-handers, Grissom .285). Grissom could help Pierre read pitchers to help his base stealing, he has experience, and he's been to the postseason. That's good to have on the team.

 

Hey da muskat said something smart !?!?

 

Prior, Wood, Mabry, Ramirez, Pierre, Lee, Walker, Zambrano, Jones, and maybe even more have postseason experience too. That better not be a made-up reason to have Grissom on the team.

[ThePenguin11]

What's sad is that we could have run away with this division with a solid offseason.

 

I have to disagree. Your offseason, no matter how successful, can never guarantee success in the postseason. Ask the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers of the past few years about that. There have been plenty of teams to spend and overspend only to find themselves on the outside looking in in October. The moves may look great at the time, but who's to say that Brian Giles doesn't bat .220 and completely lose it? It's not unprecedented for a guy to just lose it? Of course it's highly unlikely, but the only way you can make that statement is in retrospect.

 

That kind of defeats the purpose however since the statement is more of a prediction. The only way to say we could have run away with the division is if we added a bunch of all-stars who were guaranteed to stay healthy and perform at their normal level - which is pretty much impossible anyway. I'm sorry if I'm being a bit overcritical, but the moral of the story is you still always have to play the games first.

 

When did I guarantee anything? I said "could." :? I also only commented on winning the division and said nothing about the postseason.

 

I read it as if you were saying, "If not for this poor offseason, we could have run away with the division." If what you meant was, "We could have had a chance to run away with the division, had we not had a better offseason.", then I misinterpreted your statement. It just looked more like an indictment toward the GM, as if there was a plan he could have followed that would guarantee a ticket to the playoffs - which in my opinion would be impossible due to countless external factors. Of course, now it does seem as if I misinterpreted what you were saying.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

What's sad is that we could have run away with this division with a solid offseason.

 

I have to disagree. Your offseason, no matter how successful, can never guarantee success in the postseason. Ask the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers of the past few years about that. There have been plenty of teams to spend and overspend only to find themselves on the outside looking in in October. The moves may look great at the time, but who's to say that Brian Giles doesn't bat .220 and completely lose it? It's not unprecedented for a guy to just lose it? Of course it's highly unlikely, but the only way you can make that statement is in retrospect.

 

That kind of defeats the purpose however since the statement is more of a prediction. The only way to say we could have run away with the division is if we added a bunch of all-stars who were guaranteed to stay healthy and perform at their normal level - which is pretty much impossible anyway. I'm sorry if I'm being a bit overcritical, but the moral of the story is you still always have to play the games first.

 

When did I guarantee anything? I said "could." :? I also only commented on winning the division and said nothing about the postseason.

 

I read it as if you were saying, "If not for this poor offseason, we could have run away with the division." If what you meant was, "We could have had a chance to run away with the division, had we not had a better offseason.", then I misinterpreted your statement. It just looked more like an indictment toward the GM, as if there was a plan he could have followed that would guarantee a ticket to the playoffs - which in my opinion would be impossible due to countless external factors. Of course, now it does seem as if I misinterpreted what you were saying.

 

no problem. i agree with what you wrote. i take it as a given that we're not doing much in October if Prior and Wood miss significant time (or God forbid, Z). I'm pretty confident that we can contend for the WC as is (if healthy). A solid offensive OF and an offensive SS would do wonders as far as narrowing the gap to the Cards, who are seemingly weaker this year. We certainly had the money. Jones wasn't my favorite acquisition. Pierre, Howry, and Eyre were really expensive and I'm not sold on any of the 3. I just think we could have done better and am a little irked we didn't especially since our rivals didn't improve a whole lot either.

 

A better offseason wouldn't guarantee us a playoff run, but it would certainly increase the odds.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

What's sad is that we could have run away with this division with a solid offseason.

 

Not necessarily. The Cubs would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cardinals. Look at their resume

-they won the division last year

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Carpenter and Mulder

-they have a solid closer with Isringhausen

-Scott Rolen only played 56 games last year, and stunk it up when he was playing

-they still have Pujols and Edmonds as well

 

I'm not saying the Cardinals will win the division, and I do think the Cubs have a chance. But there is no way that the Cubs run away with the NL Central in 2006

-They did win the division last year, that doesn't mean much unless you're from Atlanta

-There's at least 6 1-2 punches I'd take over StL's

-Izzy is getting old and is on his way out, that's why they signed Looper as an insurance policy

-Rolen isn't the same player he once was. Maybe he'll turn it around, but Wood has as good a chance to return to his prime as does Rolen

-Pujols I'll give you, but Edmonds is a shell of the player he used to be. Look at his dwindling numbers the past 3 years. I'd expect that trend to continue

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

What's sad is that we could have run away with this division with a solid offseason.

 

Not necessarily. The Cubs would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cardinals. Look at their resume

-they won the division last year

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Carpenter and Mulder

-they have a solid closer with Isringhausen

-Scott Rolen only played 56 games last year, and stunk it up when he was playing

-they still have Pujols and Edmonds as well

 

I'm not saying the Cardinals will win the division, and I do think the Cubs have a chance. But there is no way that the Cubs run away with the NL Central in 2006

-They did win the division last year, that doesn't mean much unless you're from Atlanta

-There's at least 6 1-2 punches I'd take over StL's

-Izzy is getting old and is on his way out, that's why they signed Looper as an insurance policy

-Rolen isn't the same player he once was. Maybe he'll turn it around, but Wood has as good a chance to return to his prime as does Rolen

-Pujols I'll give you, but Edmonds is a shell of the player he used to be. Look at his dwindling numbers the past 3 years. I'd expect that trend to continue

 

I agree with everything except on Edmonds.

 

Edmonds arguably posted career bests in 2004.

[reggiemiller rules]

What's sad is that we could have run away with this division with a solid offseason.

 

Not necessarily. The Cubs would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cardinals. Look at their resume

-they won the division last year

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Carpenter and Mulder

-they have a solid closer with Isringhausen

-Scott Rolen only played 56 games last year, and stunk it up when he was playing

-they still have Pujols and Edmonds as well

 

I'm not saying the Cardinals will win the division, and I do think the Cubs have a chance. But there is no way that the Cubs run away with the NL Central in 2006

-They did win the division last year, that doesn't mean much unless you're from Atlanta

-There's at least 6 1-2 punches I'd take over StL's

-Izzy is getting old and is on his way out, that's why they signed Looper as an insurance policy

-Rolen isn't the same player he once was. Maybe he'll turn it around, but Wood has as good a chance to return to his prime as does Rolen

-Pujols I'll give you, but Edmonds is a shell of the player he used to be. Look at his dwindling numbers the past 3 years. I'd expect that trend to continue

 

I agree with everything except on Edmonds.

 

Edmonds arguably posted career bests in 2004.

 

I dont agree with the Izzy comment either, he is only 34 which isnt that old and he had a good year last year. I think they signed Looper because he is dominant against right handers adn can be a good setup man and not cause Izzy is on the decline.

[Drew Doughty]

He's going to be 33 most of this year. Last year was actually one of his best years.

 

Uninteresting fact: Isringhausen and Prior have the same b-day (in different years, obviously)

[snoodmonger]

Olney is far more impressed with Eyre and Howry than I am.

 

Actually, it seemed like he was saying the scouts were very impressed with them.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Izzy's declining K/9 (over like 4-5 seasons) gives me hope of his overall decline as a closer, although his BAA and WHIP haven't suffered...yet. :twisted:

[A New Era]

I can spin it just as easily for the Cubs.

 

Not necessarily. The Cardinals would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cubs. Look at their resume

 

-they didn't win the division last year, but had 2 "key" loosing streaks. Which I think happened when the pressure to win returned (IE as soon as they were right back in it, BAM, another 8 game loosing streak). Hopefully those "key" players that played a major role in this, are no longer on this team. And that the new guys added to our core, will create a much stronger group this year.

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Zambrono and Prior

-they have a solid closer with Dempster, who seemed to find his niche with closing, and lead the league least year with 33 saves.

-Kerry Wood only started 66 innings last year, and stunk it up when he was pitching. He could return to form this year.

-they still have Lee and Ramirez as well.

[indifferent]

I can spin it just as easily for the Cubs.

 

Not necessarily. The Cardinals would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cubs. Look at their resume

 

-they didn't win the division last year, but had 2 "key" loosing streaks. Which I think happened when the pressure to win returned (IE as soon as they were right back in it, BAM, another 8 game loosing streak). Hopefully those "key" players that played a major role in this, are no longer on this team. And that the new guys added to our core, will create a much stronger group this year.

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Zambrono and Prior

-they have a solid closer with Dempster, who seemed to find his niche with closing, and lead the league least year with 33 saves.

-Kerry Wood only started 66 innings last year, and stunk it up when he was pitching. He could return to form this year.

-they still have Lee and Ramirez as well.

 

That'd be OK, except it's "losing" and the Cubs finished approx. 17 games out in the Central? I can see why Buster would side on the team with that degree of margin. Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)? It seems like it, once again, comes down to the health of the Cubs starting pitching.

[A New Era]

I can spin it just as easily for the Cubs.

 

Not necessarily. The Cardinals would have a good chance to win the division but the only team that has a chance to 'run away' with the division in 2006 is the Cubs. Look at their resume

 

-they didn't win the division last year, but had 2 "key" loosing streaks. Which I think happened when the pressure to win returned (IE as soon as they were right back in it, BAM, another 8 game loosing streak). Hopefully those "key" players that played a major role in this, are no longer on this team. And that the new guys added to our core, will create a much stronger group this year.

-they have a 1-2 starting punch that is as good as any in the league with Zambrono and Prior

-they have a solid closer with Dempster, who seemed to find his niche with closing, and lead the league least year with 33 saves.

-Kerry Wood only started 66 innings last year, and stunk it up when he was pitching. He could return to form this year.

-they still have Lee and Ramirez as well.

 

That'd be OK, except it's "losing" and the Cubs finished approx. 17 games out in the Central? I can see why Buster would side on the team with that degree of margin. Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)? It seems like it, once again, comes down to the health of the Cubs starting pitching.

 

I hate to sound like Dusty Baker here but. Hey man, that's why we play the games. Honestly, I do not beleive we will run away with the division. Do I beleive we have a shot? Yes.

 

I'm just going to make a couple quick points with why I think we are better.

 

We start the year with dempster and an improved bullpen. I don't have the #'s but I know we must have lost a dozen games in the late innings. .

 

We now will have no more "experimenting" with leadoff. And Pierre has just a good chance of reverting to carreer norms than he does regressing. Which means an improvement of over .050 OBP in the 1 slot.

 

I also have alot of faith in Murton and Cedeno. Every time these guys were up to bat last year they showed patience and quality at bats.

 

I have faith that Jones (without the pressure) can atleast improve vastly from last year. And if we platoon him with grissom for LHP, then we get decent production from RF.

 

I also beleive that between Prior, Wood, and Miller, we will beable to put together atleast 2 complete quality pitchers out of them. Added to Zambrono, Maddux, and Williams, we have a solid starting lineup this year. And finally some arms to fall back on when we need them!

 

I'm just excited to see baseball season, and all of us as baseball fans can agree, it should be a closer battle this year, and be some good baseball. Here's to the best sport ever! Let the season begin!!

[jwhatti]

Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)?

 

Yeah, No LaTroy Hawkins for a whole season!!!!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)?

 

All of it? No. Some of it? Maybe.

[JWCUB]

Last year the Cubs started the season with a lot of question marks. Lead off, closer, bull pen just to name a few. This year, everything seems to be set. No more experimenting. They can concentrate on fundamentals. The big question is......as it is every year, the health of Woody and Prior. If, and it is a big if all of the arms are healthy and the Cubs are in it come July, I look for a huge trade. Im talking all healthy arms. Miller, Guzman, Williamson..... I'm not saying they will all get traded, but that is a very nice start for say a Dunn, Abreu ect.. Just a thought. But to get back to the topic, IMO the Cubs have put themselves in position to contend. Now it is up to the players to produce. The only major difference between the Cubs and Cards is the Cards know how to win, The Cubs need to LEARN how to win, and handle the pressures that come with it. Grow as a TEAM if you will.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

That'd be OK, except it's "losing" and the Cubs finished approx. 17 games out in the Central? I can see why Buster would side on the team with that degree of margin. Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)? It seems like it, once again, comes down to the health of the Cubs starting pitching.

 

And you've hit the nail on the head. I don't believe our offseason moves have made up the margin, but I do believe that if our pitching is healthy (and yes, I know...big if) we have closed the gap.

 

Check out Gammons' blog.

 

Link

 

Look at what the Cardinals have done the last two years leading the National League in regular-season victories with 105 and 100. In 2004, their five starters went to the post 154 times, and the fact that they had Danny Haren in the wings made it possible to throw him in as the extra man. In 2005, their five starters went to the mound 160 times.

 

The White Sox won the World Series, and their front four starters did not miss a start. They only needed six starters all year; when Orlando Hernandez went down, they had one of the game's best young pitchers, Brandon McCarthy, ready to step in. When the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, their front five started 159 games; in 2005, they went through 11 starters, including Jeremi Gonzalez and John Halama. The Yankees used 14.

 

Effectiveness is important, but health seems to be critical.

 

Now, Gammons does mention the Cubs.

 

Then there are the Cubs. They were within two innings of the World Series in 2003, when their front five started 154 games and they needed but seven starters all season. Then in 2004, they slipped to 89-73 as they dropped to 137 starts from the front five, including 43 by Mark Prior and Kerry Wood combined. Last year, the Cubs fell below .500 as they got 124 starts from their projected top five -- a total of 37 by Prior and Wood. Oh yes, Greg Maddux has led them in starts the last two seasons. "It doesn't take a genius to figure out what happened to us," says Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

 

If the Cubs can get 150 starts out of Zambrano, Prior, Wood, Maddux, and Miller then I think they have closed the gap, especially considering some of the downgrades I see on the Cardinals.

 

On the other hand, if that fivesome only accounts for 120 starts, the gap could be as wide as ever unless the Cardinal staff also suffers some injuries.

 

Consistent, healthy starting pitching will be the key in the NL Central. Not just for the Cubs, but for the Astros and Cardinals too.

[goonys evil twin]

Effectiveness is important, but health seems to be critical.

 

Great health won't help a thing without a significant level of effectiveness. You can have 5 perfectly healthy Glendon Rusch's and you aren't going anywhere.

[UK1679666180]

Then there are the Cubs. They were within two innings of the World Series in 2003, when their front five started 154 games and they needed but seven starters all season. Then in 2004, they slipped to 89-73 as they dropped to 137 starts from the front five, including 43 by Mark Prior and Kerry Wood combined. Last year, the Cubs fell below .500 as they got 124 starts from their projected top five -- a total of 37 by Prior and Wood. Oh yes, Greg Maddux has led them in starts the last two seasons. "It doesn't take a genius to figure out what happened to us," says Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

 

Unfort. that hasn't translated to ways to try and ensure the health of the rotation.

[Catman61]

but Edmonds is a shell of the player he used to be. Look at his dwindling numbers the past 3 years. I'd expect that trend to continue

 

Best check that again 2003 was a career year for Edmonds, which he then topped in 2004. 2005 was an off year compared to what Edmonds usually does but still ranked in the top 20 in most offensive stats (exept batting avg of course)

[LoneStarCubFan]

but Edmonds is a shell of the player he used to be. Look at his dwindling numbers the past 3 years. I'd expect that trend to continue

 

Best check that again 2003 was a career year for Edmonds, which he then topped in 2004. 2005 was an off year compared to what Edmonds usually does but still ranked in the top 20 in most offensive stats (exept batting avg of course)

 

I'll go out on a limb and say Edmonds doesn't come close to the numbers he put up last year.

 

Rolen will be on the DL for an extended period of time too. Bank on it.

 

Doesn't mean the Cardinals won't find a way to win the division though. They are, after all, the Spawn of Satan.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Honestly, do Cubs fans themselves feel they've made up the margin with their offseason moves (vs. ours)?

 

Yeah, No LaTroy Hawkins for a whole season!!!!

ugh..if only we could get ride of the person that put him in the situtation he was in.

[bmkhawk]

Olney is far more impressed with Eyre and Howry than I am.

 

How can you not like them as players? You might not like their price tag, but they certainly help the bullpen.

[goonys evil twin]

Olney is far more impressed with Eyre and Howry than I am.

 

How can you not like them as players? You might not like their price tag, but they certainly help the bullpen.

 

They don't certainly do anything. They're journeymen relievers, and journeyman relievers are not consistent, and guarantee you nothing.

 

They should make the bullpen better, but neither is a lockdown reliever, or anything special, or a right fielder with solid production numbers (the Cubs real #1 need this offseason).

[bmkhawk]

The fact that they are not right fielders is irrelevant.

[goonys evil twin]

The fact that they are not right fielders is irrelevant.

 

I added that for sarcasm's sake.

 

The fact that they are merely journeymen relievers who offer very little sense of stability is very relevent.