Zambrano is one of Neyer's Cy Young favs

[rawaction]

Sheets will have the worst defensive team in the league behind him. Weeks and Fielder are weak on the right side. OF defense is weak. Hardy is strong defensively, but Bill Hall will get time at SS and 3B and he's not a good fielder. The Brewers are a trendy sleeper pick, but it ain't happenin' this year.

[wolf stansson]

west is wide open (and not that good), and he was 14-12 last year on a sub-.500 team.

He may have been 14-12 on a sub .500 team last year, but he was also 7-16 on a very similar sub .500 team the previous year.

 

Brandon Webb is good. I'll give him that. He has an incredible sinker. I've never seen such a heavy ball before (other than the sinker his repetoire seemed underwhelming to me). That being said, his team isn't going to score a lot of runs, he doesn't strike that many guys out, and he is the only pitcher on that staff worth a crap. He's going to be going up against a lot of team's number one starters. That's going to hurt him. His era last year was 3.54. In his 7-16 2004 season his era was 3.59. He seems to have gotten better in some categories and regressed in other in his two full seasons. I just don't think he will do it, especially with the team around him.

[SouthSideRyan]

He may have been 14-12 on a sub .500 team last year, but he was also 7-16 on a very similar sub .500 team the previous year.

 

The D-Backs improved by 26 games last year. They were not similar.

 

He's going to be going up against a lot of team's number one starters. That's going to hurt him.

 

This isn't really true, other than the first few starts of the year, and the first few starts of the 2nd half, days off tend to jumble up rotation slots, and each pitcher matches up with different spots.

[goonys evil twin]

This isn't really true, other than the first few starts of the year, and the first few starts of the 2nd half, days off tend to jumble up rotation slots, and each pitcher matches up with different spots.

 

Really it's after the first series that the jumbling begins. Teams have different schedules for off-days at the beginning, and they handle them differently. As for the All Star break, many #1s will pitch in that game, delaying their start to the 2nd half. Some will pitch the last or 2nd to last game of the first half, which will alter if they are ready for the 2nd half.

 

 

I still don't get why people think teams matchup #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2 and so on. It just doesn't happen. Seasons don't happen in a vacuum.

[anemic offense]

As good as Oswalt is/has been, I'm still a little peaved about him receiving more votes and consideration than Carlos did for the 04 season. Carlos was superior in virtually every statistical category (IIRC), besting him in ERA, Avg against, HR against, innings, and I believe Ks as well. Oswalt did have a slight advantage in the W column, but I belived Carlos had the better W % as well as a better team record on the days he pitched (which is astounding considering how much weaker our pen was than theirs). It's not like he was playing on a totally umcompetitive team (as was the case this year).

[wolf stansson]

He may have been 14-12 on a sub .500 team last year, but he was also 7-16 on a very similar sub .500 team the previous year.

 

The D-Backs improved by 26 games last year. They were not similar.

I meant that this year's team is very similar to 2004's. Not last year's.

 

He's going to be going up against a lot of team's number one starters. That's going to hurt him.

 

This isn't really true, other than the first few starts of the year, and the first few starts of the 2nd half, days off tend to jumble up rotation slots, and each pitcher matches up with different spots.

Are you telling me managers never align their rotation to give their team the best chance to win against an opposing team's best pitcher? Are you also telling me that the role of being the "number one" guy doesn't bring more pressure with it?

[goonys evil twin]

Are you telling me managers never align their rotation to give their team the best chance to win against an opposing team's best pitcher? Are you also telling me that the role of being the "number one" guy doesn't bring more pressure with it?

 

Nobody is telling you they never try to, what they are saying is that in the end, the theory that 1s face 1s all the time is absolutely bogus. No matter how hard you try, you can't do it. The schedule makes it impossible. Managers might try and matchup against a certain rival that way, but even then, they'll be lucky just to be able to get their 1 vs a top 3 guy, let alone the actual #1. Furthermore, team's real #1s often times aren't labeled #1 because baseball people are slow to pick up on change.

[wolf stansson]

Are you telling me managers never align their rotation to give their team the best chance to win against an opposing team's best pitcher? Are you also telling me that the role of being the "number one" guy doesn't bring more pressure with it?

 

Nobody is telling you they never try to, what they are saying is that in the end, the theory that 1s face 1s all the time is absolutely bogus. No matter how hard you try, you can't do it. The schedule makes it impossible. Managers might try and matchup against a certain rival that way, but even then, they'll be lucky just to be able to get their 1 vs a top 3 guy, let alone the actual #1. Furthermore, team's real #1s often times aren't labeled #1 because baseball people are slow to pick up on change.

 

I never said that they try to do it all the time. The fact is, Brandon Webb will face guys like Peavy and Schmidt more than anyone else in their rotation. I'm not saying it is a huge factor, but it is a factor.

[jjgman21]

Are you telling me managers never align their rotation to give their team the best chance to win against an opposing team's best pitcher? Are you also telling me that the role of being the "number one" guy doesn't bring more pressure with it?

 

I know of one manager in all of baseball that juggles his rotation with any consistency simply for the sake of matchups. just because you are familiar with it, doesn't mean it is the norm.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wish retrosheet was updated to '05.

 

Let's check Buehrle in '04.(Chosen cause I know he was durable and the no doubt #1.

 

Vs. Matt Anderson (KC's 1)

vs. Jorge DePaula

vs. Matt Anderson(1)

vs. Alex Graman

vs. Jeremi Gonzalez

vs. Roy Halladay(1)

vs. Sidney Ponson (O's #1 *Snicker*)

vs. Sidney Ponson(1)

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Ryan Drese

vs. Mark Mulder(Mulder did not start opening day)

vs. Ryan Madson

vs. Travis Smith

vs. Claudio Vargas

vs. Cliff Lee

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Glendon Rusch

vs. Matt Thornton

vs. Barry Zito (Also did not start opening day)

vs. Cliff Lee

vs. Brad Radke(Minnesota's #1)

vs. Mike Maroth

vs. CC Sabathia(Cleveland's #1)

vs. Darrel May

vs. Bronson Arroyo

vs. Curt Schilling(Did not start opening day)

vs. Nate Robertson

vs. Brett Myers

vs. Ryan Franklin

vs. Chris Young

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Denny Bautista

vs. Chris George

 

35 starts, 7 #1s.

[treebird]

I wish retrosheet was updated to '05.

 

Let's check Buehrle in '04.(Chosen cause I know he was durable and the no doubt #1.

 

Vs. Matt Anderson (KC's 1)

vs. Jorge DePaula

vs. Matt Anderson(1)

vs. Alex Graman

vs. Jeremi Gonzalez

vs. Roy Halladay(1)

vs. Sidney Ponson (O's #1 *Snicker*)

vs. Sidney Ponson(1)

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Ryan Drese

vs. Mark Mulder(Mulder did not start opening day)

vs. Ryan Madson

vs. Travis Smith

vs. Claudio Vargas

vs. Cliff Lee

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Glendon Rusch

vs. Matt Thornton

vs. Barry Zito (Also did not start opening day)

vs. Cliff Lee

vs. Brad Radke(Minnesota's #1)

vs. Mike Maroth

vs. CC Sabathia(Cleveland's #1)

vs. Darrel May

vs. Bronson Arroyo

vs. Curt Schilling(Did not start opening day)

vs. Nate Robertson

vs. Brett Myers

vs. Ryan Franklin

vs. Chris Young

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Carlos Silva

vs. Denny Bautista

vs. Chris George

 

35 starts, 7 #1s.

 

come on, the numbers worked out in your favor, finish the job, hammer the point home!

 

35/7 = 5

 

that means he got one-fifth of the number-one-starter-as-opposition-starts

 

there are 5 starters! it was random!

[wolf stansson]

First off, just know that your "facts" mean nothing to me. This "logic" and "statistical analysis" that would indicate my error is completely irrelevant. THIS IS BASEBALL FOR HEAVEN'S SAKE! Do you know anything at all about it?

 

For example: What matters more? How often someone gets on base or how "clutch" someone is? DUH! Clutchness and veteran saavy are the two most important aspects of baseball.

 

All you muneyballers can just go make out with billy beene!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, I was wrong. At first, much like was pointed out, I was thinking about how La Russa manages his staff and didn't think any further than that. My point stays that if Brandon Webb is in the top 2 for Cy Young I will send whoever says he will $50.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

From a BP chat with Joe Sheehan:

 

jm010e (NY, NY): Joe, thanks for chatting! What should we expect out of Brandon Webb this year? He seemed to really take a step forward with his power groundball stuff last season and the 'Backs have dramatically improved their infield defense with the addition of Orlando Hudson; possibly 18-20 wins?

 

Joe Sheehan: It seems too simple, but when you consider that Brandon Webb is a groundball guy with problems against lefties, doesn't adding a 2B with excellent range have to mean good things for him? Shouldn't this save him a lot of singles?

 

I'm behind this plan. I see Webb with an ERA in the low 3.00s, making the All-Star team and being a fringe CYA candidate.