Simontacchi invited to ST??

[Springfield_CUBBY]

This is from today's Suntimes:

 

Hendry expects to announce two minor-league invitations to spring training in the next few days, including one for former St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jason Simontacchi, 32, who is trying to come back from shoulder surgery.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-cub03.html

 

Living down here in Cardinal country - I can tell you that the uncomfortable man-love for Jason was just insane back in 2002-2003. If he can regain some of his old form, then JH might just have found a pretty good sleeper for the pen!

[erik316wttn]

This is from today's Suntimes:

 

Hendry expects to announce two minor-league invitations to spring training in the next few days, including one for former St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jason Simontacchi, 32, who is trying to come back from shoulder surgery.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-cub03.html

 

Living down here in Cardinal country - I can tell you that the uncomfortable man-love for Jason was just insane back in 2002-2003. If he can regain some of his old form, then JH might just have found a pretty good sleeper for the pen!

 

This is certainly a Hendry move. Take a guy who was good before surgery who is currently a FA, sign him to a low base offer and hope for the best.

 

Low risk, high reward. I can't say I'm against it. If he is good, you have a very good arm in the pen. If he stinks, you're not out all that much.

[goonys evil twin]

This is from today's Suntimes:

 

Hendry expects to announce two minor-league invitations to spring training in the next few days, including one for former St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jason Simontacchi, 32, who is trying to come back from shoulder surgery.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-cub03.html

 

Living down here in Cardinal country - I can tell you that the uncomfortable man-love for Jason was just insane back in 2002-2003. If he can regain some of his old form, then JH might just have found a pretty good sleeper for the pen!

 

This is certainly a Hendry move. Take a guy who was good before surgery who is currently a FA, sign him to a low base offer and hope for the best.

 

Low risk, high reward. I can't say I'm against it. If he is good, you have a very good arm in the pen. If he stinks, you're not out all that much.

 

Simontacchi was good? I seem to remember a guy with an ERA over 5 who got lucky to be pitching for a team with a tremendous offense. I agree it's low risk, but it's nowhere near high reward. If he returns, he'll never be very good. He might become a mediocre 5th starter if healthy.

[Dr. Cub]

I've got to agree with goony on this one. It's definitely low risk, but it is not high reward. Jason has been mediocre to flat out awful in his time in the majors.

[Springfield_CUBBY]

Simontacchi was good? I seem to remember a guy with an ERA over 5 who got lucky to be pitching for a team with a tremendous offense.

 

In 2002 he was 11-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Sure, he was playing above his potential, but what's this costing us if he stinks? Maybe a few hotdogs from the HoHoKam concession stand?

[goonys evil twin]

Simontacchi was good? I seem to remember a guy with an ERA over 5 who got lucky to be pitching for a team with a tremendous offense.

 

In 2002 he was 11-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Sure, he was playing above his potential, but what's this costing us if he stinks? Maybe a few hotdogs from the HoHoKam concession stand?

 

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

[Springfield_CUBBY]

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

 

People, people, you forget that our entire ’06 team philosophy seems to be predicated on catching lighting in a bottle - over and over again! (need I remind you of our starting right fielder??) My point is only this - you can't catch lighting without a bottle . . .

[goonys evil twin]

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

 

People, people, you forget that our entire ’06 team philosophy seems to be predicated on catching lighting in a bottle - over and over again! (need I remind you of our starting right fielder??) My point is only this - you can't catch lighting without a bottle . . .

 

 

This is true, I think, maybe.

 

Is he pitching for the Italian team this spring?

[UBlink]

I don't understand this whole "low risk, high reward" line of reasoning. By that concept, buying a lottery ticket is low risk, high reward. What it really works out to is low upfront outlay, low probability of high reward.

 

Now if the FA market values these players lower than their expected value because of the low probability of success, a strategy of building a diversified portfolio of risky, project arms could make sense - if you sign 4 of these types to a $1 million contract, you might have a good probability that at least one would succeed and exceed the performance of a low risk $4 million player.

[erik316wttn]

I don't understand this whole "low risk, high reward" line of reasoning. By that concept, buying a lottery ticket is low risk, high reward. What it really works out to is low upfront outlay, low probability of high reward.

 

Now if the FA market values these players lower than their expected value because of the low probability of success, a strategy of building a diversified portfolio of risky, project arms could make sense - if you sign 4 of these types to a $1 million contract, you might have a good probability that at least one would succeed and exceed the performance of a low risk $4 million player.

 

Your logic is off. You have a 1 in 200 million chance of that "high reward" buying a lottery ticket. It's significantly less when talking about guys like Dempster, Williamson, etc

[goonys evil twin]

I don't understand this whole "low risk, high reward" line of reasoning. By that concept, buying a lottery ticket is low risk, high reward. What it really works out to is low upfront outlay, low probability of high reward.

 

Now if the FA market values these players lower than their expected value because of the low probability of success, a strategy of building a diversified portfolio of risky, project arms could make sense - if you sign 4 of these types to a $1 million contract, you might have a good probability that at least one would succeed and exceed the performance of a low risk $4 million player.

 

Your logic is off. You have a 1 in 200 million chance of that "high reward" buying a lottery ticket. It's significantly less when talking about guys like Dempster, Williamson, etc

 

But probably the same when talking about Simontacchi.

[Springfield_CUBBY]

Is he pitching for the Italian team this spring?

 

I seem to recall that he pitched on the Italian National team in Sydney - he also did a stop on our local (and now defunct) Frontier League team in Springfield, IL. He was one of those "winding road to the majors" type players that local sports writers love to rave about - a bit like JoeBo . . .

[UBlink]

I don't understand this whole "low risk, high reward" line of reasoning. By that concept, buying a lottery ticket is low risk, high reward. What it really works out to is low upfront outlay, low probability of high reward.

 

Now if the FA market values these players lower than their expected value because of the low probability of success, a strategy of building a diversified portfolio of risky, project arms could make sense - if you sign 4 of these types to a $1 million contract, you might have a good probability that at least one would succeed and exceed the performance of a low risk $4 million player.

 

Your logic is off. You have a 1 in 200 million chance of that "high reward" buying a lottery ticket. It's significantly less when talking about guys like Dempster, Williamson, etc

 

The logic is fine, just the probability factor used in the logic is different. Unless you have inside information (you know more about the pitcher's chance of successful recovery than the market), the difference between market value for a recovering player to what he would be worth fully healthy will be the market's assessment of the probability of recovery. A lottery ticket is a bad investment because the price exceeds the expected value. If you are saying the baseball FA market is excessively risk averse, so that the expected value of a recovering pitcher is greater than the market price, then you've got a strategy for "beating the market." This is what the second paragraph of the original post was trying to say.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I'd really like to see what Dusty could do with a veteran like Simontacchi.

 

:lol:

[JonnyRed]

Didn't the White Sox take a similar low-risk high-reward strategy last year? They signed players who had underperformed in recent years or had been hurt and hoped for the best. Guys like Dye, AJ Prick, Contreras, El Duque, etc. weren't hot items on the '04 FA market, but it turned out okay for them. I see no problem with what Hendry is doing. It's worked out nicely with Dempster, Rusch has been okay and if Williamson and Miller return to health, our staff looks like one of the best in the NL.

[goonys evil twin]

Didn't the White Sox take a similar low-risk high-reward strategy last year? They signed players who had underperformed in recent years or had been hurt and hoped for the best. Guys like Dye, AJ Prick, Contreras, El Duque, etc. weren't hot items on the '04 FA market, but it turned out okay for them. I see no problem with what Hendry is doing. It's worked out nicely with Dempster, Rusch has been okay and if Williamson and Miller return to health, our staff looks like one of the best in the NL.

 

The difference is guys like Duque, Contreras, Miller, Williamson and Dempster have high upside. I like the moves Hendry made with the actual moderate risk high reward guys. Simontacchi, however, is low reward. If all goes well, he'll be a dime a dozen mediocrity. I am neither in favor or strongly against this move. It's largely meaningless. And it does not offer a chance for high reward.

[Balsa]

Oh well he's just invited to ST, not given a three year deal...

[Shilzzz]

it would be nice to see an offensive addition that might mean something every once in a while too.

 

how long before simontacchi pitches again?

[CoolHandLuke]

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

 

People, people, you forget that our entire ’06 team philosophy seems to be predicated on catching lighting in a bottle - over and over again! (need I remind you of our starting right fielder??) My point is only this - you can't catch lighting without a bottle . . .

 

 

This is true, I think, maybe.

 

Is he pitching for the Italian team this spring?

 

Yes, along with other "Italians" such as Mike Piazza, Dan Miceli, Ron Villone, Matt Mantei, David Dellucci, and Frank Catalanotto. I think all you need to be granted Italian citizenship is a vowel at the end of your name.

[jjgman21]

 

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

 

you mean the Cardinals had a player come up with an uncharacteristically good performance at a position and time in which they were desperate and had no real viable options, and the good performance can only be explained by luck? that's unfathomable.

[CubsWin]

This is from today's Suntimes:

 

Hendry expects to announce two minor-league invitations to spring training in the next few days, including one for former St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jason Simontacchi, 32, who is trying to come back from shoulder surgery.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-cub03.html

 

Living down here in Cardinal country - I can tell you that the uncomfortable man-love for Jason was just insane back in 2002-2003. If he can regain some of his old form, then JH might just have found a pretty good sleeper for the pen!

 

This is certainly a Hendry move. Take a guy who was good before surgery who is currently a FA, sign him to a low base offer and hope for the best.

 

Low risk, high reward. I can't say I'm against it. If he is good, you have a very good arm in the pen. If he stinks, you're not out all that much.

 

Simontacchi was good? I seem to remember a guy with an ERA over 5 who got lucky to be pitching for a team with a tremendous offense. I agree it's low risk, but it's nowhere near high reward. If he returns, he'll never be very good. He might become a mediocre 5th starter if healthy.

Yeah, I definitely agree. The difference between Dempster/Williamson and Simontacchi was pretty noticeable.

 

Maybe he'll improve after a move to the bullpen like Dempster did, but I definitely see this move as a low risk/moderate reward type move. Probably still worth it, but not as exciting at the onset as Dempster and Williamson were.

[CubsWin]

 

2002 was completely out of character from his career. And then he stunk in 2003 and 2004. And his peripherals in 2002 kind of predicted that he wouldn't repeat the ERA, let alone the record (which was completely due to his team).

 

you mean the Cardinals had a player come up with an uncharacteristically good performance at a position and time in which they were desperate and had no real viable options, and the good performance can only be explained by luck? that's unfathomable.

Haven't you heard? Dave Duncan is a miracle worker. Wait...no, I don't recall Simontacchi hat being covered in pine tar, so maybe it was luck.

[Guancous]

I will consider it Mission Accomplished if Simontacchi is ever traded for a no-name A position player with any semblance of patience.

[CUBZ99]

Its official he has been signed per Chicagosports.com.

 

Any chance that a Kevin Brown signing is on the horizon?

[Neuby]

i'm suprized no one has taken a chance yet on Kevin Brown this offseason for a chance to crack there rotation.