Abreu to the White Sox in the Rumor Mill

[goonys evil twin]

Does this deal look insane from the Phillies standpoint to anybody else?

 

Absofreakinglutly

 

What is Williams doing, giving other GMs a date rape drug and then taking pictures?

 

If this is in the works, it would seem to put some stock in the theory that Philly just wants to move Abreu to change the look of their team. It wouldn't make any sense to trade him for older players who are nowhere near great. Philly's hopes lie on the shoulders of Utley and Utley, plus maybe Burrell. The first two could provide top 3 in the league production from their position at a very far below market price. The pitching is what's lacking, but Myers and Tejeda are a nice start. I just don't think they are in any sort of position to trade Abreu for a pitcher like Contreras, who is not consistently good, or Dye, who is older than Bobby and far less productive historically.

 

Is this like when the Cubs had Patterson and Patterson? :)

 

No, that what's it's like when I am drunk and drunk. Obviously I meant Howard, but I got distracted with "work" while writing and must have lost my place.

[cjbucks]

Does this deal look insane from the Phillies standpoint to anybody else?

 

Absofreakinglutly

 

What is Williams doing, giving other GMs a date rape drug and then taking pictures?

 

If this is in the works, it would seem to put some stock in the theory that Philly just wants to move Abreu to change the look of their team. It wouldn't make any sense to trade him for older players who are nowhere near great. Philly's hopes lie on the shoulders of Utley and Utley, plus maybe Burrell. The first two could provide top 3 in the league production from their position at a very far below market price. The pitching is what's lacking, but Myers and Tejeda are a nice start. I just don't think they are in any sort of position to trade Abreu for a pitcher like Contreras, who is not consistently good, or Dye, who is older than Bobby and far less productive historically.

 

Is this like when the Cubs had Patterson and Patterson? :)

 

No, that what's it's like when I am drunk and drunk. Obviously I meant Howard, but I got distracted with "work" while writing and must have lost my place.

 

If we could just quit that damn work we would have a lot more time for baseball :lol:

[cheapseats]

I keep reading about teams ready to trade a superstar for a #1 or #2 starter and they talk to the White Sox about Contreras. I don't get it. I might understand if they asked for Garland or Garcia, but Contreras????? Maybe we ought to offer the Phillies Rusch or Maddox for Abreu.

 

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball.

 

With all due respect Hoops,

 

The GMs around the league are, for the most part, not stupid.

 

July -Oct. is hardly the way to measure a pitcher. Especially one with Contreras's track record. And then Jermanie Dye? He has been washed up for for a while.

 

PECOTA projects Abreu's VORP in 2006 at 34.3.

 

PECOTA projects Contreras's VORP at 26.5 and Dye's at 7.8. That adds up to exactly 34.3.

 

PECOTA is calling for a decline from Abreu, and they're calling for Conteras and Dye to come back to earth a little. If this deal had taken place before last season, by the way, it would have been a great deal for the Phillies, as last season's production from Dye and Contreras was worth about two more wins that what they got from Abreu. Even with Contreras's less than stellar first half, he would have been the Phillies' best pitcher.

 

This deal does make sense now if the White Sox believe McCarthy is ready to start.

[goonys evil twin]

For the love of G-d, JH can't come up with something better than Dye and Contreras?

 

I don't think the Cubs can. The problem for the Cubs is that the players that teams want in these deals the Cubs can't afford to give.

 

This is what I have been saying all off-season as people bash Hendry for not getting that stud bat. In addition to not being able to give up the best pitching, the Cubs don't actually have the asked for value on the roster.

 

That's just an indictment of Hendry's work as farm director and earlier work as GM. If they don't have anything that people want on the roster now, it's Hendry's fault. This is his roster, and the farm is mostly his doing.

[SouthSideRyan]

Saying that the Phillies free up 17M for '07 as additional value to the deal seems to not make sense to me. The Phils could also free up 17M for '07 by trading Abreu for scrap in the offseason. In addition they'd get a full season of Abreu rather than a 38 year old pitcher with an inconsistent 3 year ML career and a vastly inferior replacement RF.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

It's a little late to be wanting Abreu--since JJ was signed as a free agent, the Cubs are stuck with him until at least June 15.

 

Besides, I don't want to give up what the Phils would demand for Abreu, too much talent. We could desperately use a bat like his, but we simply cannot afford to deal away a top pitcher given our health issues, while the Sox can deal from strength and get away with it.

 

I will be VERY impressed with KW if he pulls this off though. How smart does the Vazquez deal look now? Buerhle, Garland, Vazquez, McCarthy and Garcia, Sox won't miss a beat with Contreras out of there. And Abreu > Dye. If Thome gives them ANYTHING, Sox won't be touched in the Central.

[goonys evil twin]

It's a little late to be wanting Abreu--since JJ was signed as a free agent, the Cubs are stuck with him until at least June 15.

 

The Cubs still have OF issues, and I wouldn't have a problem with Abreu coming to play LF with Murton heading back east. I'd also be interested to see if they want to get out of Burrell's contract.

 

The Cubs are stuck. They have to try and get as good as possible now, because their farm system isn't good enough to be trying to build for 2007 or 2008. They need more firepower.

[Magnetic Curses]

I keep reading about teams ready to trade a superstar for a #1 or #2 starter and they talk to the White Sox about Contreras. I don't get it. I might understand if they asked for Garland or Garcia, but Contreras????? Maybe we ought to offer the Phillies Rusch or Maddox for Abreu.

 

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball.

 

carlos zambrano, a pitcher half his age, who had a better second half AND first half, and has for the last 3 years, would disagree with their assessment.

 

the phillies would want zambrano from us, but would accept contreras from the white sox?

 

ridiculous.

[rawaction]

I'd do Murton, Pie, and Williams for Abreu. I don't know how Contreras is so much better than a guy like Williams. And I don't know why anyone would want Dye over a combo of Murton and Pie, without having to give up a young pitcher in addition. I still don't think that the Phillies would do it, though they would be wise to if they want to get rid of Abreu and save about $12M.

[goonys evil twin]

I keep reading about teams ready to trade a superstar for a #1 or #2 starter and they talk to the White Sox about Contreras. I don't get it. I might understand if they asked for Garland or Garcia, but Contreras????? Maybe we ought to offer the Phillies Rusch or Maddox for Abreu.

 

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball.

 

carlos zambrano, a pitcher half his age, who had a better second half AND first half, and has for the last 3 years, would disagree with their assessment.

 

I have to agree with Hoops. He didn't say Contreras was the best, he said there was a perception he was the best. Look no further than Steve Phillips for somebody who puts far greater emphasis on win totals down the stretch than actual pitching performance. I'd bet Phillips would take Contreras over Zambrano (who he has constantly bad mouthed as immature, unstable and unproven). A lot of GMs still come from the conventional wisdom crowd.

[TheDude]

For the love of G-d, JH can't come up with something better than Dye and Contreras?

 

I don't think the Cubs can. The problem for the Cubs is that the players that teams want in these deals the Cubs can't afford to give.

 

This is what I have been saying all off-season as people bash Hendry for not getting that stud bat. In addition to not being able to give up the best pitching, the Cubs don't actually have the asked for value on the roster.

 

That's just an indictment of Hendry's work as farm director and earlier work as GM. If they don't have anything that people want on the roster now, it's Hendry's fault. This is his roster, and the farm is mostly his doing.

 

You just isolated text completely out of context from the point. I did not say the Cubs have "don't have anything" - I said the Cubs don't have the specific brand of starter teams are asking for when it cmes to dealing their big bats.

 

I could not have made my point more clear if you re-read the entire post.

[goonys evil twin]

You just isolated text completely out of context from the point. I did not say the Cubs have "don't have anything" - I said the Cubs don't have the specific brand of starter teams are asking for when it cmes to dealing their big bats.

 

I could not have made my point more clear if you re-read the entire post.

 

No matter how much of the text I included, the point still stands. The Cubs plan was to draft and develop pitchers, then trade for and sign big bats when the time came to contend. The time has come, they aren't signing the bats, and can't trade for them. That is the fault of poor management.

[Backtobanks]

I keep reading about teams ready to trade a superstar for a #1 or #2 starter and they talk to the White Sox about Contreras. I don't get it. I might understand if they asked for Garland or Garcia, but Contreras????? Maybe we ought to offer the Phillies Rusch or Maddox for Abreu.

 

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball.

 

carlos zambrano, a pitcher half his age, who had a better second half AND first half, and has for the last 3 years, would disagree with their assessment.

 

I have to agree with Hoops. He didn't say Contreras was the best, he said there was a perception he was the best. Look no further than Steve Phillips for somebody who puts far greater emphasis on win totals down the stretch than actual pitching performance. I'd bet Phillips would take Contreras over Zambrano (who he has constantly bad mouthed as immature, unstable and unproven). A lot of GMs still come from the conventional wisdom crowd.

 

That explains why Phillips isn't a GM anymore.

[Lefty]

This doesn't sound plausible.

 

I would agree, but I heard on the radio over a month ago,I believe it was Tim Kurkijiankaianananaian, who said that the White Sox and Phillies had seriously discussed Abreau for Contreras at the Winter Meetings. I thought it so nuts, and then saw it no place else, I just dismissed it.

[davearm]

You just isolated text completely out of context from the point. I did not say the Cubs have "don't have anything" - I said the Cubs don't have the specific brand of starter teams are asking for when it cmes to dealing their big bats.

 

I could not have made my point more clear if you re-read the entire post.

 

No matter how much of the text I included, the point still stands. The Cubs plan was to draft and develop pitchers, then trade for and sign big bats when the time came to contend. The time has come, they aren't signing the bats, and can't trade for them. That is the fault of poor management.

Bobby Abreu is the Phils' best player and most valuable trade commodity.

 

Jim Hendry has assembled a roster with *four* better players, that he would not deal straight up for Abreu (Prior, Z, Lee, Ramirez).

 

Unfortunately, whoever you designate as the fifth-best Cub isn't someone that can be dealt for a first-best guy like Abreu.

 

Now explain to me again how this situation constitutes some sort of failure on Hendry's part. Seems to me, Hendry's got his club well ahead of Philly/Gillick.

[Soul]

The Yanks gave Contreras away for a bag of beans, and now the White Sox are on the verge of turning him into Abreu?

 

:shock:

 

If that happens, Kenny Williams is officially a genius. There would be no possible way to argue against it. I can't believe he would be able to pull this off.

 

Is everyone sure this is the actual deal that has been discussed? Did someone hit the Phillies with the stupid stick or something?

[goonys evil twin]

Now explain to me again how this situation constitutes some sort of failure on Hendry's part. Seems to me, Hendry's got his club well ahead of Philly/Gillick.

 

Really? Seems to me Philly won 88 games last year and Hendry's team won 79. Gillick is new to the job though, so claiming one GM has done a better job than the other is impossible.

 

The failure on Hendry's part is that the plan was to build the farm up through pitching, develop a core of players, and then trade for or sign the position players who can put the team over the top. If the Cubs are in a position where they can't sign difference making position players (whether that's due to a lack of available funds/space or interest from the player, or a lack of players), and he can't trade for difference makers, then he's failed to carry out the team's plan.

 

The other failure, of course, is this team just hasn't won enough under Hendry, and they aren't in a position to make a huge dent in that poor record.

 

But I apologize to those Cubs fans who don't want to hear management has failed. Let's just go on pretending they've done a marvelous job.

[Magnetic Curses]

I keep reading about teams ready to trade a superstar for a #1 or #2 starter and they talk to the White Sox about Contreras. I don't get it. I might understand if they asked for Garland or Garcia, but Contreras????? Maybe we ought to offer the Phillies Rusch or Maddox for Abreu.

 

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball.

 

carlos zambrano, a pitcher half his age, who had a better second half AND first half, and has for the last 3 years, would disagree with their assessment.

 

I have to agree with Hoops. He didn't say Contreras was the best, he said there was a perception he was the best. Look no further than Steve Phillips for somebody who puts far greater emphasis on win totals down the stretch than actual pitching performance. I'd bet Phillips would take Contreras over Zambrano (who he has constantly bad mouthed as immature, unstable and unproven). A lot of GMs still come from the conventional wisdom crowd.

 

read the bolded.

[goonys evil twin]

read the bolded.

 

I know you wrote Carlos would disagree, I was merely replying after seeing a few posts that questioned Hoops for writing what he wrote. It appeared to me that many thought he was nuts for thinking some GM's would think what he wrote they might think, and I happen to agree with his theory.

[RynoRules]

You just isolated text completely out of context from the point. I did not say the Cubs have "don't have anything" - I said the Cubs don't have the specific brand of starter teams are asking for when it cmes to dealing their big bats.

 

I could not have made my point more clear if you re-read the entire post.

 

No matter how much of the text I included, the point still stands. The Cubs plan was to draft and develop pitchers, then trade for and sign big bats when the time came to contend. The time has come, they aren't signing the bats, and can't trade for them. That is the fault of poor management.

 

Agreed in general. I dunno if we can kill JH re a possible Abreu trade based on this point, but may be we can.

[CubinNY]

read the bolded.

 

I know you wrote Carlos would disagree, I was merely replying after seeing a few posts that questioned Hoops for writing what he wrote. It appeared to me that many thought he was nuts for thinking some GM's would think what he wrote they might think, and I happen to agree with his theory.

 

That was me. I still think the notion is ridiculous. I'll eat my hat if the deal as proposed goes through

[RynoRules]

read the bolded.

 

I know you wrote Carlos would disagree, I was merely replying after seeing a few posts that questioned Hoops for writing what he wrote. It appeared to me that many thought he was nuts for thinking some GM's would think what he wrote they might think, and I happen to agree with his theory.

 

That was me. I still think the notion is ridiculous. I'll eat my hat if the deal as proposed goes through

 

Lets hope you have some ketchup available then. :wink:

[goonys evil twin]

You just isolated text completely out of context from the point. I did not say the Cubs have "don't have anything" - I said the Cubs don't have the specific brand of starter teams are asking for when it cmes to dealing their big bats.

 

I could not have made my point more clear if you re-read the entire post.

 

No matter how much of the text I included, the point still stands. The Cubs plan was to draft and develop pitchers, then trade for and sign big bats when the time came to contend. The time has come, they aren't signing the bats, and can't trade for them. That is the fault of poor management.

 

Agreed in general. I dunno if we can kill JH re a possible Abreu trade based on this point, but may be we can.

 

I'd feel very comfortable roasting him if this deal does go through, and he didn't do everything possible to convince Gillick he was nuts for taking back an old inconsistent pitcher and a mediocre older outfielder, when he could have positioned his team much better with a package that included some of Murton/Pie/Williams/Wuertz/Novoa/Ohman/Harvey/etc. I have no problem roasting him for ignoring Giles, even if he supposedly refused to play outside of SD. I have a big problem with a GM that doesn't do whatever possible to make the team better.

 

But I'm not going to kill him based on rumors, I have more than enough ammunition just looking at the overall state of the team.

[davearm]

Now explain to me again how this situation constitutes some sort of failure on Hendry's part. Seems to me, Hendry's got his club well ahead of Philly/Gillick.

 

Really? Seems to me Philly won 88 games last year and Hendry's team won 79. Gillick is new to the job though, so claiming one GM has done a better job than the other is impossible.

 

The failure on Hendry's part is that the plan was to build the farm up through pitching, develop a core of players, and then trade for or sign the position players who can put the team over the top. If the Cubs are in a position where they can't sign difference making position players (whether that's due to a lack of available funds/space or interest from the player, or a lack of players), and he can't trade for difference makers, then he's failed to carry out the team's plan.

 

The other failure, of course, is this team just hasn't won enough under Hendry, and they aren't in a position to make a huge dent in that poor record.

 

But I apologize to those Cubs fans who don't want to hear management has failed. Let's just go on pretending they've done a marvelous job.

You're completely missing the point.

 

Hendry is absolutely in a position to carry out the plan you describe (namely, develop young arms and then trade them for a big bat).

 

The rub is, the young arms they've developed (Prior, Z) are worth more than Abreu.

 

So by your logic, the "failure" here is that Prior and Z turned out *too good*.

 

Either that, or you're in favor of a straight swap of Prior or Zambrano for Abreu.

 

As I said at the top, that would be completely consistent with the strategy that you claim Hendry should be pursuing, but somehow can't.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You're completely missing the point.

 

Hendry is absolutely in a position to carry out the plan you describe (namely, develop young arms and then trade them for a big bat).

 

The rub is, the young arms they've developed (Prior, Z) are worth more than Abreu.

 

So by your logic, the "failure" here is that Prior and Z turned out *too good*.

 

Either that, or you're in favor of a straight swap of Prior or Zambrano for Abreu.

 

As I said at the top, that would be completely consistent with the strategy that you claim Hendry should be pursuing, but somehow can't.

 

Z and Prior aren't the only arms in the system. When you draft loads of pitchers, you use the depth to get what you want. The problem, as TheDude pointed out, is that we have been unable to develop anything between the studs(Prior, Z, Wood) and the hopefuls with potential(Cruz, Pinto, Guzman, etc.).

 

Part of the reason is that they are unable to bring anyone in between the two extremes is that there isn't much space in the rotation to develop. When you've got 3 studs like the above, then you're already at a "disadvantage". However, knowing that you build around pitching this has to be taken into consideration.

 

Furthermore, Hendry contradicts the overriding "draft pitching and trade for hitting" philosophy with his FA SP acquisitions, by acquiring mediocre to poor talents to fill those spots(Maddux, Rusch) instead of developing the younger players to the point where they fill the need or are valuable enough to trade elsewhere.

 

BTW, Welcome!