Got My John Sickels Prospect Handbook Today....

[Balsa]

Wow. This really makes me want to raid the Dbacks of prospects. What holes do they have this year that we can trade to them for some of those juicy prospects...

 

Especially Carlos Quentin. Mmm.....

[Tim]

I missed Cain, sorry. He did get an A-. Reyes got a B+.

 

BTW, Tim, is there any chance we might could get John to come on and do a chat? Maybe we could allow him to put a link to buying the book on the site in exchange for a Q&A.

I don't know John to ask for a chat. But I'll send an email when I get a chance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I missed Cain, sorry. He did get an A-. Reyes got a B+.

 

BTW, Tim, is there any chance we might could get John to come on and do a chat? Maybe we could allow him to put a link to buying the book on the site in exchange for a Q&A.

I don't know John to ask for a chat. But I'll send an email when I get a chance.

 

That's cool. Any chance Jim Callis will come by again?

[Tim]

I missed Cain, sorry. He did get an A-. Reyes got a B+.

 

BTW, Tim, is there any chance we might could get John to come on and do a chat? Maybe we could allow him to put a link to buying the book on the site in exchange for a Q&A.

I don't know John to ask for a chat. But I'll send an email when I get a chance.

 

That's cool. Any chance Jim Callis will come by again?

I can certainly ask.

[craig]

Thanks for the posts guys. Next question, do young players like Pie ever become "patient" hitters or is Guerrero\Soriano the ceiling?

 

edit - Guerrero is awesome but is pretty unique and probably was very hard to project

 

It's very rare for a low-walks guy to ever become a high-walks guy.

 

Sammy Sosa is the classice exception. Guerrero is actually another; he has a reputation as a low-walk hacker, but he's been above average in walks for the last five years at least. Has taken 60-84 walks in four of last five years. Obviously pitcher fear factor is part of it, but...

 

It's not clear how bad Pie's walk problem is or will be. His career IsoP is 0.059, that's not that bad. His career walk rate is >8%, which would be right around or a shade above big-league average. This past season was his first year in which his IsoP has dropped below 60.

 

That, of course, is the norm for the vast majority of hitters. 90+% of major leaguers had higher walk rates in the minors than they have in the majors, and the norm is for the walk rate to drop with each level of promotion. Pitchers get better, and have better control, and walk rates drop. Pitchers get better breaking stuff and are better able to throw knockout pitches that strike you out, and hitters are more reluctant to let themselves get into a two-strike count where they can get whiffed. So they perhaps tend to swing more early and often, ala Dopirak and Corey and Harvey.

 

Ithink the concern with Pie is that he's getting and will continue to get worse in this regard. He's now tring to mold himself as a homerun hitter/slugger. And as poor as his walk-rate was in AA, it was much worse in the Dominican.

 

Vance (I think) noted that Pie had "all the tools". We'll see. I believe that pitch recognition and the eye/brains to read pitches enough to have good plate discipline is primarily an inborn tool, and isn't a teachable approach which is just a matter of choice. That just may be a tool that Pie does not have and never will.

 

The fact that he strikes out so much, combined with the walk concerns, does not bode well in this regard. He may need to get by as best he can with that as a limitation.

[CubsMinorLeagueReport]

I am surprised that Hirsch for the Astros got an A-...Sure he is a nice prospect, but I just dont see him as the definition (as written by sickels) of an A. He would be a B range guy in my book.

 

BA thought highly enough of him to rate him the #1 prospect in the Astros organization over Troy Patton who, in my opinion, has the potential to torment the NL Central for years to come. A lefty with that kind of stuff and control who can keep the ball in the park is pretty hard to come by, ya know?

 

I know about the BA rankings, I think it had a lot to do with their distance from the majors...I would take Patton over Hirsch.

[goonys evil twin]

Not a troll post, I'm just new to evaluating prospects...

 

I guess I don't really understand why Pie is rated so highly. I know he's young with great tools however he strikes out a ton and he hardly ever takes a walk. Do players like him ever develop a lot of patience? Are there any comparable major league stud players who had similar numbers in the minors at his age? Hasn't he only had one really good season?

 

An interesting comparison could be Miguel Cabrera.

 

Career minor league: 1428 AB, 262 K, 131 BB, .286/.350/.431

Age 20 in AA: 266 AB, 49 K, 31 BB, .365/.429/.609

 

Felix Pie

Career minor league: 1402 AB, 315 K, 118 BB, .297/.356/.460

Age 20 in AA: 240 AB, 53 K, 16 BB, .304/.349/.554

 

Similar career paths, up until Pie got hurt before his callup, at an equivalent time to Cabrera getting called up. Miggy obviously enjoyed a bigger jump in his final year though.

 

And the big difference is k/bb. Felix strikes out more and walks less, by a considerable margin. But some guys struck out as much as Pie and found success in the majors, including Dunn, Bay, Burrell. Others struck out even more, like Preston Wilson, who of course has enjoyed only moderate success for a brief period. Some of these guys walked more than Pie, or about the same. Pie does have the advantage of speed over all these guys, as well as position (except for Wilson).

 

I think an interesting comparison though, is Geoff Jenkins. He struck out a little more, walked about the same, then went on to have a nice career, solid but unspectaculiar, despite a few big years.

 

Anyway, it looks like Pie's numbers mean he's got a chance to succeed. But he'll probably never be a superstar unless he significantly improves the k and bb issues.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I'm not as high as most on Pie, and I'd agree with Sickel's grade. I'd be curious whether he graded Rich Hill and Matt Murton, and if so, what the grades were. Mine would be B+ (Hill) and A- (Murton).

 

I'm thinking his B+ grade for Pawelek is based strictly on small sample size and being too early to get a strong feel for his ultimate ceiling. We'll know an awful lot more about him after 2006. Could easily see him becoming one of the top 5 prospects in baseball at this time next year. Exciting kid.

 

How did Sickels grade Marshall and Marmol?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not as high as most on Pie, and I'd agree with Sickel's grade. I'd be curious whether he graded Rich Hill and Matt Murton, and if so, what the grades were. Mine would be B+ (Hill) and A- (Murton).

 

I'm thinking his B+ grade for Pawelek is based strictly on small sample size and being too early to get a strong feel for his ultimate ceiling. We'll know an awful lot more about him after 2006. Could easily see him becoming one of the top 5 prospects in baseball at this time next year. Exciting kid.

 

How did Sickels grade Marshall and Marmol?

 

He did not grade Murton in this year's book.

 

Murton received a C+ in last year's book and C+ in the 2004 as well.

 

Hill got a B- in the 2006 book, a C in the 2005 book, and a C in the 2004 book.

 

This was Sickels's concluding remark about Hill.

 

Guys who take major steps forward like this often take major steps backwards in campaigns, so at this point I am not ready to pronounce Hill as a top prospect. He is certainly an interesting prospect, and he could turn out to be quite good. But he turns 26 in March, and we need to keep some perspective here.

[CUBZ99]

Vance -- thanks for sharing some of the info from the book. Sounds like an interesting book, is there a website I could order it from or is his book available on Amazon, B&N etc. ?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Vance -- thanks for sharing some of the info from the book. Sounds like an interesting book, is there a website I could order it from or is his book available on Amazon, B&N etc. ?

 

 

Go here.

 

http://www.mastersball.com/sickels/company.htm

 

I'm always torn on how much of his info I should share because I really think everyone should buy the book.

 

John is freelancing now that ESPN streamlined their coverage with BA and he does an excellent job. His approach is much different than BA and I think he brings a unique perspective.

[CUBZ99]

Vance -- thanks for sharing some of the info from the book. Sounds like an interesting book, is there a website I could order it from or is his book available on Amazon, B&N etc. ?

 

 

Go here.

 

http://www.mastersball.com/sickels/company.htm

 

I'm always torn on how much of his info I should share because I really think everyone should buy the book.

 

John is freelancing now that ESPN streamlined their coverage with BA and he does an excellent job. His approach is much different than BA and I think he brings a unique perspective.

 

Thanks. :D

[Laura]

Vance -- thanks for sharing some of the info from the book. Sounds like an interesting book, is there a website I could order it from or is his book available on Amazon, B&N etc. ?

 

 

Go here.

 

http://www.mastersball.com/sickels/company.htm

 

I'm always torn on how much of his info I should share because I really think everyone should buy the book.

 

John is freelancing now that ESPN streamlined their coverage with BA and he does an excellent job. His approach is much different than BA and I think he brings a unique perspective.

 

I'd second Vance on that. Sickels also has a website -- http://www.minorleagueball.com/ -- and does a lot of "prospect retrospectives" where he looks at a player's development or lack thereof as well as how he had graded him as a prospect. I like the discussions.

[stitchface]

After reading all this, I think the cubs should trade high on pie if they can get a top hitter for him.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

After reading all this, I think the cubs should trade high on pie if they can get a top hitter for him.

 

Maybe it's time to include both Pie and Rich Hill in a package for Dunn... ':-k'

[rawaction]

After reading all this, I think the cubs should trade high on pie if they can get a top hitter for him.

 

Maybe it's time to include both Pie and Rich Hill in a package for Dunn... ':-k'

 

Agreed. I'm not down on Felix at all, but I think if you can get an impact bat, preferably a young one like Dunn, then you gotta trade him. He's far from a lock to be a superstar, while Dunn (and others) are already bonafide star players.

[CubsWin]

How about keep Pie and have him while he is at least cheap and good and find out if he can be cheap and great. Then, with the money they aren't paying Pie, sign Dunn or someone like him when he becomes a free agent?

[rawaction]

How about keep Pie and have him while he is at least cheap and good and find out if he can be cheap and great. Then, with the money they aren't paying Pie, sign Dunn or someone like him when he becomes a free agent?

 

You are assuming he's gonna be good. There's no guarantee he's gonna be any good. There's also no guarantee that Dunn or the like will ever become a free agent. The Reds could sign him today. I'd give up the chance that Pie is gonna be good, for a player who's actually good. Especially, since there is a very slim chance that Felix will ever be as good as Dunn, Abreu, etc are right now.

[CubDad4Ever]

Trading a player at the right time , through careful self scouting. Is a critical element to an orginizations success. The Braves do it very well. Hendry hit homeruns on Hill and Choi. I agree with you Raw on the point if the right trade was offered i would not be afraid to trade Pie. Not that im in a hurry to see him go. It would be interesting to know how untouchable he really is to Hendry. God Bless Raw and i love your minor league info. Coach L.

[oldcubsfan]

Trading a player at the right time , through careful self scouting. Is a critical element to an orginizations success. The Braves do it very well. Hendry hit homeruns on Hill and Choi. I agree with you Raw on the point if the right trade was offered i would not be afraid to trade Pie. Not that im in a hurry to see him go. It would be interesting to know how untouchable he really is to Hendry. God Bless Raw and i love your minor league info. Coach L.

Last week when he was on with Bruce Levine he said for the right deal no one was untouchable, including Pie.

[CubDad4Ever]

Thanks old cubs fan. that speaks directly to my question. Gods Peace Coach L

[Scotti]

So they perhaps tend to swing more early and often, ala Dopirak and Corey and Harvey.

 

Craig, are you suggesting that Harvey/Dopirak swing early to avoid K's?

[Balsa]

Hmm...I'd really wait and see if Pie increased his BB/K ratio this summer in AAA. If not, I'd say use him as trade bait at the deadline, and see if we can't pick up a player to put us over the top.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Some mildy interesting information about Felix Pie on BP today...

 

Center Fielders: Real Prospects

Player                               Age    WARP     Upside     Comb
1. Chris Young, CF, ARI (22)          22    22.5      212.9     437.8

2. Brian Anderson, CF, CHA (24)       24    16.1      104.4     265.7
3. Franklin Gutierrez, CF, CLE (23)   23    14.6      100.8     246.8
4. Felix Pie, CF, CHN (21)            21    14.0       94.4     234.5
5. Lastings Milledge, CF, NYN (21)    21    12.8      100.8     228.4

 

 

PECOTA takes Felix Pie reasonably seriously as a prospect, as least as much as it can for a guy whose number one comparable is Corey Patterson. We do not make this stuff up, folks. I’d be reluctant to read too much into Pie’s power breakout at Double-A, as it came in only 59 games worth of playing time. Although Pie is built differently than Patterson, he’s presently a little bit undersized for a power hitter. Lastings Milledge belongs in the same broad category as Pie, and shares some of his comparables. PECOTA sees growth potential for both of these guys, but reminds us that it might not come immediately; either could very easily have a Franklin Gutierrez type of season next year (at which point they’ll go from being overrated to underrated).