Gary Hughes Possible Candidate for Reds GM

[SanJoseCubsFan]

I agree on many points as CubsDad. I use to love this board and it has been hard to post/read posts lately as there is so much venom on any move the Cubs make without looking at all points of what is takes to win. I posted on another tread that the Cubs offense, OPS wise, was as good or better than most world series teams. They did not score allot of runs and some of that is OBS and some of that may have been bad luck. I do not believe the offense is as bad as people think and there are two parts to winning scoring runs and preventing runs. I belive we will be as good as last year in the OPS column which should lead to more runs and better with defense and pitching which will prevent more runs. Sorry for the off topic post.

 

Anyway, to answer your question.

 

I have done research and using a few different runs created models. Juan Pierre had 77 urns created with his stolen bases and 73ish without. I then pumped up his caught stealing to come up with a break even point which is around 67%. The whole reason I looked at this was in hardball times there was debate about Depodestas hypothesis of OBS is 3 x as high as slugging. This in most peoples minds too high. It is somewhere around 1.2.-2x as valuable. Since you are basically, not exactly, trading on base for slugging with a potential steal you can see how Depodetas came up with his argument of 75% even though it under most other peoples runs created arguments doesn't hold. (see hard ball times, Bill James run creation model)

 

 

I believe i just did relating to aspects of stolen base success rate. Just one example of what im talking about. You guys have know idea how biggoted you sometimes come across as. Ive gotten several private messages staking how many people agree. Thats not why i am here. I actually started in your corner of thought . Overly emotional (self serving jack ass ?) at every comment Dusty or Hendry made. The proof lies in the pudding > If this team does not get where it needs to Dusty will be canned . Thats professional athletics my friend. Pandoras Box , Please. You guys talk game about stats , until your called on a point like the SB ratio or limited sample size, durability as a metric. Then you respond emotionally. Dont gang up on me please , i might cry. God Bless Coach L

 

Thanks for the idea of 66%. You have a link to the study on that or a source? Not that we don't believe you, but I'd like to see the data.

 

I'm glad you're getting lots of PM's. I've gotten plenty too. If these people like your ideas so much, maybe they should join the discussion. We don't bite.

 

Love Mother Earth, Vance

[USSoccer]

Was that during the St Louis Grand Slam series?

 

No. The grand slam game was Sun 24 July 05.

 

Wow, for some reason I always thought that homer came much later in the season.

 

Me too. I thought mid August.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Was that during the St Louis Grand Slam series?

 

No. The grand slam game was Sun 24 July 05.

 

I was at that game and what a glorious moment it was.

[imb]

Was that during the St Louis Grand Slam series?

 

No. The grand slam game was Sun 24 July 05.

 

Wow, for some reason I always thought that homer came much later in the season.

 

Me too. I thought mid August.

 

That was such a hilarious moment. Everyone was resigned to failure, and then it just exploded, hahaha.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Was that during the St Louis Grand Slam series?

 

No. The grand slam game was Sun 24 July 05.

 

Wow, for some reason I always thought that homer came much later in the season.

 

Me too. I thought mid August.

 

If you had asked me yesterday, I would have thought the same thing. As the quirks of the schedule worked out, that game on 24 July was the last time we faced the Cardinals until 05 Sept.

[USSoccer]

Was that during the St Louis Grand Slam series?

 

No. The grand slam game was Sun 24 July 05.

 

Wow, for some reason I always thought that homer came much later in the season.

 

Me too. I thought mid August.

 

That was such a hilarious moment. Everyone was resigned to failure, and then it just exploded, hahaha.

 

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

 

I thought it was how Baker used him that you couldn't stand. :wink:

[USSoccer]

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

 

I thought it was how Baker used him that you couldn't stand. :wink:

 

The heat of the moment does not help one's sense of proper perspective. :D

 

One last, funny story about it, though. My now-wife thought his name was pronounced Knifey, and thus he became her favorite player. She was very dissapointed it was actually Neigh-fee, and promptly went back to complaining about the fact I spend so much time watching the Cubs and talking about them on NSBB.

[CubDad4Ever]

San Jose , thats some of the same stuff i have read. I dont think this debate is that toxic. Vance i will take the road God wants me to take which is humilty. Thats why i put it at the end of each Post. I disagree with you on some points but i agree on others. I definetly laugh , but am impressed with the level of passion we all have. If i have offended you and im sure in my lust to prove a point , i have engaged in hyperbole, sounded pious and sterotyped some here. That being said peoples absoultes in their responses have show their built in human biases. We all have them and its no sin to admit it. I hope the board can continue to debate some new and interesting subjects. Although in no way do i have the right or think i do to dictate subject matter. May God Truly Bless us all. Thanks for the lively debate. Gods Peace Coach L.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

 

I thought it was how Baker used him that you couldn't stand. :wink:

 

The heat of the moment does not help one's sense of proper perspective. :D

 

One last, funny story about it, though. My now-wife thought his name was pronounced Knifey, and thus he became her favorite player. She was very dissapointed it was actually Neigh-fee, and promptly went back to complaining about the fact I spend so much time watching the Cubs and talking about them on NSBB.

 

Here's hoping that we both get a life someday !! :wink:

[SanJoseCubsFan]

What choice was there. Cubs have not had ONE decent positional player make the majors on their team since Mark Grace. I think, please correct me if I am wrong, these were the younger options your were talking about

 

Belhorn over Harris- start at 3rd got down to .180ba (decent obs)

HSC over Karros-Was playing 75% of the time until he got hurt and batted low .200s and platooned

Bobby Hill over Grutz-It was his job to lose in spring training and he lost it.

Juan Cruz over Estes-Again, let's not go there. One year of decent relif that is about it.

Cedeno over Neifi-Look wasn't the right move last year, Neifi did a decent job last year if you look at offense and defense. (yes his obs sucks horribly but so did allot of shortstops in the NL). Cedeno has the starting job this year.

 

There wasn't options or younger talent to go to. Also, read what Murton and the players say about Dusty. SI does a who do you want to have manage you and he is usally at the top of the list.

 

 

 

I believe i just did relating to aspects of stolen base success rate. Just one example of what im talking about. You guys have know idea how biggoted you sometimes come across as. Ive gotten several private messages staking how many people agree. Thats not why i am here. I actually started in your corner of thought . Overly emotional (self serving jack ass ?) at every comment Dusty or Hendry made. The proof lies in the pudding > If this team does not get where it needs to Dusty will be canned . Thats professional athletics my friend. Pandoras Box , Please. You guys talk game about stats , until your called on a point like the SB ratio or limited sample size, durability as a metric. Then you respond emotionally. Dont gang up on me please , i might cry. God Bless Coach L

 

 

 

Yes, when you have a history of KNOWINGLY and Consistently playing veteran garbage like Lenny Harris, Eric Karros(against righthanders),Todd Hollandsworth, Neifi Perez, Shawn Estes etc...Over younger better options, to keep his "good ole boy" reputation amongst the leagues "veterans" intact(Boy the free agents are lining up to play for the Cubs). Which was not only to the detriment of the teams at the time, but to the long term betterment of the franchise as well, Then Yes you are by defintion self-serving.

[USSoccer]

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

 

I thought it was how Baker used him that you couldn't stand. :wink:

 

The heat of the moment does not help one's sense of proper perspective. :D

 

One last, funny story about it, though. My now-wife thought his name was pronounced Knifey, and thus he became her favorite player. She was very dissapointed it was actually Neigh-fee, and promptly went back to complaining about the fact I spend so much time watching the Cubs and talking about them on NSBB.

 

Here's hoping that we both get a life someday !! :wink:

 

I tell her all the time I'll stop caring so much once they finally win a WS. She's less than encoraged by the past century's track record.

[CubinNY]

I agree on many points as CubsDad. I use to love this board and it has been hard to post/read posts lately as there is so much venom on any move the Cubs make without looking at all points of what is takes to win. I posted on another tread that the Cubs offense, OPS wise, was as good or better than most world series teams. They did not score allot of runs and some of that is OBS and some of that may have been bad luck. I do not believe the offense is as bad as people think and there are two parts to winning scoring runs and preventing runs. I belive we will be as good as last year in the OPS column which should lead to more runs and better with defense and pitching which will prevent more runs. Sorry for the off topic post.

 

I don't think your post was off topic as the thread has careened of course from what it was.

 

If one looks at the Cubs the last two years they have ranked near the top in HRs and near the bottom in OBP. I think looking at aggragate numbers like OPS is skewing reality a little. In other words, the OPS has been good b/c the Cubs have been clubbing the ball out of the park at a phenominal rate. What has this translated into interms of runs scored? In 2004 the Cubs ranked 7th in the NL and 2005 9th. At the end of the day that half of what matters.

 

The other piece is runs allowed. Again we see that the Cubs have struck batters out at a phenominal rate. But let's look where they rank at team WHIP: 9th and 11th. Why is that? walks. The Cubs are near the bottom of the NL in how many walks they give. What has this translated to in terms of runs allowed? The Cubs were middle of the pack in the NL 2004 and 2005.

 

Taken together the Cubs Pythagrean Record shows that they were about five games worse in 2004 then they should have been and one game worse in 2005, meaning with a little better "luck" (and less Hawkins) they should have made the playoffs in 04 but where rightly medicore in 2005.

 

I've seen very little this off-seasn to make me optimistic that they can improve either side of the equation enough to make a meaningful difference to change a medicore team. I don't think Pierre's 4 runs will make that much of an improvement. He will likely be an improvement over Patteson's 2005 season, but that isn't saying a whole hell of a lot.

 

In addition, one of the biggest problems on defense is still wearing a Cub uniform and his name is Mike Barrett. I love his offense and the Cubs will need it more than ever this year, but if Hendry was looking to make a major upgrade in that department he should have changed catchers. I am not advocating that in anyway. What I'm saying is, I don't know what Hendry and the Cubs are thinking, but whatever it is I don't like it.

[Magnetic Curses]

I agree on many points as CubsDad. I use to love this board and it has been hard to post/read posts lately as there is so much venom on any move the Cubs make without looking at all points of what is takes to win.

 

the argument isn't "what it takes to win", it's "what it takes for this team to win".

 

this team wasn't good at not making outs. that's where it needed to upgrade, starting nefi perez is not a good option if you're wanting to upgrade OBP.

 

and if you're good at making outs, chances are that being fast won't help.

[CubDad4Ever]

CubinNY, I was curious as to who and how you would have filled cf leadoff. Obviously Hendry tried to procure Frucal. God Bless and thanks for the input Coach L

[CubinNY]

CubinNY, I was curious as to who and how you would have filled cf leadoff. Obviously Hendry tried to procure Frucal. God Bless and thanks for the input Coach L

 

It looks like Coo Coo Crisp is available. Jason Michaels is available. I don't want to start another debate but if the Cubs could have upgraded in LF or RF they could have used Patterson for one more year. Cliff Floyd probably could have been had. Giles was out there. IMO There are any number of creative deals that could have been made.

 

It is not so much that Pierre is bad, b/c he is not. He is medicore. But all his worth is tied up in his speed. If he gets hit in the quad with a ball. Forget about any stolen bases for a month and his lackluster defense will be exposed. His bad routs are often made up for by his speed. I don't think Pierre's offensive game will play well in Wrigley. He is deviod of any power whatsoever and the long grass won't help his swinging bunts much (contrary to popular opinon). The stadium in Florida was made for his game. Lightning fast infield and what not.

 

The Cubs also gave up two pretty good pitching prospects and Mitre, who I think was never given a proper chance. But the future will tell that tale.

 

I don't think the Cubs should have targeted a "lead off" man. B/c lead off is not a position on the field. I think they should have gone after the best players at whatever postion they were targeting, taking money vs. performance into the equation. As has been pointed out, speed is useless when it is setting on the bench.

 

Needless to say though, I will be rooting hard for Pierre every time he steps to the plate.

[Ram1380]

Belhorn over Harris- start at 3rd got down to .180ba (decent obs)

 

 

Bellhorn .209/.341

 

Harris .183/.255

 

 

One was a 38 year old career pinch hitter, that likely had to borrow a glove, the other a 28 year old coming off of a .886 OPS season making peanuts. Tough choice. Maybe if Bellhorn had been allowed to play through a slump like your beloved Grudz, (who I haven't mentioned until now BTW) things likely turn out differently.

 

 

 

HSC over Karros-Was playing 75% of the time until he got hurt and batted low .200s and platooned

 

 

75%, Hardly.

 

AND regardless of his batting avg, in the end he was still MUCH more productive versus righthanders than Karros while facing the 1 and 2's of most rotations.

 

 

Juan Cruz over Estes-Again, let's not go there. One year of decent relif that is about it.

 

Estes was one of the worst starters in all of baseball that year. Almost anyone, let alone a young highly rated prospect with some past big league success under him, would have been logical.

 

Cedeno over Neifi-Look wasn't the right move last year, Neifi did a decent job last year if you look at offense and defense. (yes his obs sucks horribly but so did allot of shortstops in the NL). Cedeno has the starting job this year.

 

Again, going with known garbage over a young promising player who couldn't possibly be worse, and hasn't been in the time he has gotten. I Fail to see the logic. Cedeno was every bit as good defensively last season and likely better, so defense doesn't fly either, Neifi at this stage continues to get overrated with the glove.

 

Also, read what Murton and the players say about Dusty. SI does a who do you want to have manage you and he is usally at the top of the list.

 

 

What do you think he is going to say after seeing the BS that has gone on with broadcast booth and Todd Walker etc.. and being plenty aware of his managers disdain for young players ??, exactly what he did if he wants ANY playing time.

[Ram1380]

CubinNY, I was curious as to who and how you would have filled cf leadoff. Obviously Hendry tried to procure Frucal. God Bless and thanks for the input Coach L

 

I'm optimistic about Pierre, he had a miserable start(not sure what the cold weather in Chi. will do for him) to the season then came on. I also see more value in his speed than some....taking extra bases...putting pressure on the defense, especially some pitchers.

 

I think he can get on at a .360 or better clip, which I can live with.

 

 

 

Edit: Also i'm not on the whole SB% thing either, to me there are far too many variables in a stat like that.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Ram1380

 

The point at 3rd is they both were not getting the job done. I think it makes sense to look at june and july. (hence A-ram trade). Did they take him out too soon with his OBS? Maybe but he was 28 years old and was painful to watch in June/July. Grutz is not my beloved. He only played for the cubs for two year. My point is many of Cubs prospect that "cannot" do worse ends up out of baseball in two years while the person everyone is all over is still playing for good teams (St Louis in this case-2004/2005)

 

April 70 10 16 9 0 0 6 10 0 28 1 0 .229 .325 .357 .682

May 82 12 21 4 0 2 6 16 0 27 0 0 .256 .378 .378 .756

June 88 13 19 6 0 4 14 17 0 31 1 0 .216 .333 .420 .754

July 43 6 5 1 0 1 2 6 0 23 1 0 .116 .224 .209 .434

 

 

HSC had 120 ab in April/may before he was hurt and then had a less than .600 OPS. (mostly against right handers)

 

April 54 13 13 2 0 5 14 16 2 20 0 0 .241 .431 .556 .987

May 65 8 15 9 0 2 7 9 1 25 1 0 .231 .333 .462 .795

June 16 3 5 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 .313 .389 .438 .827

July 33 4 6 1 0 1 4 3 1 8 0 0 .182 .270 .303 .573

August 25 0 4 2 0 0 2 4 0 11 0 1 .160 .276 .240 .516

 

Here are his right hand splits that year

 

vs. Right 185 28 43 16 0 8 27 30 3 62 1 1 .232 .349 .449 .798

 

Karros

vs. Right 224 20 55 7 0 9 30 13 0 35 0 0 .246 .286 .397 .683

 

You have a point but my point was after HSC was hurt he went down hill fast. Look at his splits in the second half almost all against right handers

 

I disagree on the Cruz part, I do see your point. But, He was left handed and did have a very good Sept so the roll of the dice worked. I think anyone who saw Cruz pitch saw somthing that wasn't there with him and that has proven out. But, I will back off this one some but not on Cruz. He had a worst ERA than Estes that year. BTW, Cruz did get most of the starts is Sept and lost most of them BTW Estes is only 5 years older.

 

September 7.64 1 2 0 0 4 3 0 18.2 25 15 15 3 8 17 .333

 

 

I think the Neifi/Cedeno arguement is an agree to disagree and that is ok. But, if Cedeno puts up simiar numbers to Neifi last year then please be the first to call him garbage. I won't because SS is a hard spot to fill. As I mentioned in a few posts many WS teams(around 50%) played with a SS with the offense OPS numbers as Neifi.

 

 

Belhorn over Harris- start at 3rd got down to .180ba (decent obs)

 

 

Bellhorn .209/.341

 

Harris .183/.255

 

 

One was a 38 year old career pinch hitter, that likely had to borrow a glove, the other a 28 year old coming off of a .886 OPS season making peanuts. Tough choice. Maybe if Bellhorn had been allowed to play through a slump like your beloved Grudz, (who I haven't mentioned until now BTW) things likely turn out differently.

 

 

 

HSC over Karros-Was playing 75% of the time until he got hurt and batted low .200s and platooned

 

 

75%, Hardly.

 

AND regardless of his batting avg, in the end he was still MUCH more productive versus righthanders than Karros while facing the 1 and 2's of most rotations.

 

 

Juan Cruz over Estes-Again, let's not go there. One year of decent relif that is about it.

 

Estes was one of the worst starters in all of baseball that year. Almost anyone, let alone a young highly rated prospect with some past big league success under him, would have been logical.

 

Cedeno over Neifi-Look wasn't the right move last year, Neifi did a decent job last year if you look at offense and defense. (yes his obs sucks horribly but so did allot of shortstops in the NL). Cedeno has the starting job this year.

 

Again, going with known garbage over a young promising player who couldn't possibly be worse, and hasn't been in the time he has gotten. I Fail to see the logic. Cedeno was every bit as good defensively last season and likely better, so defense doesn't fly either, Neifi at this stage continues to get overrated with the glove.

 

Also, read what Murton and the players say about Dusty. SI does a who do you want to have manage you and he is usally at the top of the list.

 

 

What do you think he is going to say after seeing the BS that has gone on with broadcast booth and Todd Walker etc.. and being plenty aware of his managers disdain for young players ??, exactly what he did if he wants ANY playing time.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Ram1380

 

I am sorry if I came off harsh, I just wish someone could give me some evidence Dusty played some vet over an even decent prospect after all of the dust settled not when they were prospects. Maybe at the time they seemed like good prospects but most of these guys ended up role players at best. (Murton/Cedeno are the closest and they are both starting this year so I don't think they were stunted much)

 

BTW-I think the Cubs have one of the best organizations with regards to communication with mgt/players. I have seats at SBC park down low and talked to Cubs players/coaches each year and up and down they all say Hendry and Baker communicate best and are the most honest of any organization or team they have been associated with. I think Murton made this comment because Dusty expalined why he was bringing him along not to throw a good comment his way in the paper. I have seen quote time and again how players love playing for Baker (Former, Current, never have played for him)

[CubinNY]

Ram1380

 

I am sorry if I came off harsh, I just wish someone could give me some evidence Dusty played some vet over an even decent prospect after all of the dust settled not when they were prospects. Maybe at the time they seemed like good prospects but most of these guys ended up role players at best. (Murton/Cedeno are the closest and they are both starting this year so I don't think they were stunted much)

 

I like to use this analogy in this case.

 

If a lion is chasing me and you, I don't have to be fast, I just have to be faster than you.

 

The same thing goes with the vet v. the rookie. How the player performed after he left the Cubs or in the next year is completly irrelavent. If "the Horn" put up better numbers he should have played. Going with known production, if it is bad, is no virtue.

[CubDad4Ever]

CubinNY, dont worry about debate , thats half the fun of following your team. I like your thoughts on rf , i think we had to try to let a cost efficient potentially numerically sound (murton) play lf. I still think Juan is a much more proven option and speed is added slug as well as subtracted obp (stolen base wise). Besides the fact micheals has yet to show full season metrics at 30 (goes against most baseball history) I dont know defensivley what he would be like in cf. That being said , i like your creativity in thinking of another plan. We all have to see how it shakes out. God Bless and thanks for the punctual answer. Coach L

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Only problem was both were not making the grade (ARAM came over) and the horn was 28 at the time not a young prospect. It does make a difference how they did later. It proves they were not everyday players like everyone thought. That is like saying Neifi had an OPS of 1.000 in 2004 so he should have given the starting job over Nomar in 2005. If the same goes for Neifi it should go for a prospect. They can either play or they cannot. An unknown is not better and you cannot assume will be better or worse. All I am saying is most of the Cubs positional prospects have done very little to merit playing time at the major league level a few years later.

 

 

Ram1380

 

I am sorry if I came off harsh, I just wish someone could give me some evidence Dusty played some vet over an even decent prospect after all of the dust settled not when they were prospects. Maybe at the time they seemed like good prospects but most of these guys ended up role players at best. (Murton/Cedeno are the closest and they are both starting this year so I don't think they were stunted much)

 

I like to use this analogy in this case.

 

If a lion is chasing me and you, I don't have to be fast, I just have to be faster than you.

 

The same thing goes with the vet v. the rookie. How the player performed after he left the Cubs or in the next year is completly irrelavent. If "the Horn" put up better numbers he should have played. Going with known production, if it is bad, is no virtue.

[CubDad4Ever]

San Jose , that is one of my biggest pet peaves, Newer is always sexier than known. That is a universal human bias ( as much as there can be one) The real problem lies in the historically riduculous ability of the cub brass noe Dusty to develoup postional talent . 1991 how bad is that and Doug Glanville to beat .Thank God Hendry , fleeced the Marlins and the Pirates . God Bless Coach L

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Right before it happened I was telling my now-wife how terrible Neifi was, and how much I couldn't stand him, and how he was absolutely going to weakly ground out to short.

 

Then I was speechless. She was laughing.

 

I thought it was how Baker used him that you couldn't stand. :wink:

 

The heat of the moment does not help one's sense of proper perspective. :D

 

One last, funny story about it, though. My now-wife thought his name was pronounced Knifey, and thus he became her favorite player. She was very dissapointed it was actually Neigh-fee, and promptly went back to complaining about the fact I spend so much time watching the Cubs and talking about them on NSBB.

 

Here's hoping that we both get a life someday !! :wink:

 

Fred, if it hasn't happened by now, I don't think there's much hope for us. :)