Cubs v. Cards Leadoff men

[Abe Frohman]

As an aside to prove my point: Who do you suspect will be better in 2006: Pujols or Lee? If we judge strictly on 2005 numbers, they will be about as equal a player as you can get. If we judge along three-year averages, there's no question Pujols will be better. I would agree with that. While I don't expect Lee to regress down to his numbers prior to last year, I in no way expect him to reach 2005 numbers either. I'd expect him to produce somewhere in line with his three-year average.

 

That is a good question. If you break it down to "who is the better hitter," I believe it is a no-brainer - Albert Pujols. I really can't think of a better overall hitter in the game than Pujols. Challenges welcome.

 

Despite the fact that Pujols is a pretty good fielding 1st baseman, with the ability to play other positions - I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two. Lee has good wheels, an incredible glove, and the jury is out concerning if he can continue to destroy inside pitching (the main reason he broke out in 2005).

 

It is true that Pujols can steal a base, but Lee has superior speed, a better glove/reach, and a comparable bat (but not a better bat). In addition, I think it is fair to guess that DLee is going to drive in many more runs and score more runs than he did in 2005 - all because of the acquisition of Juan Pierre.

[K-Town]

As an aside to prove my point: Who do you suspect will be better in 2006: Pujols or Lee? If we judge strictly on 2005 numbers, they will be about as equal a player as you can get. If we judge along three-year averages, there's no question Pujols will be better. I would agree with that. While I don't expect Lee to regress down to his numbers prior to last year, I in no way expect him to reach 2005 numbers either. I'd expect him to produce somewhere in line with his three-year average.

 

That is a good question. If you break it down to "who is the better hitter," I believe it is a no-brainer - Albert Pujols. I really can't think of a better overall hitter in the game than Pujols. Challenges welcome.

 

Despite the fact that Pujols is a pretty good fielding 1st baseman, with the ability to play other positions - I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two. Lee has good wheels, an incredible glove, and the jury is out concerning if he can continue to destroy inside pitching (the main reason he broke out in 2005).

 

It is true that Pujols can steal a base, but Lee has superior speed, a better glove/reach, and a comparable bat (but not a better bat). In addition, I think it is fair to guess that DLee is going to drive in many more runs and score more runs than he did in 2005 - all because of the acquisition of Juan Pierre.

 

Wow!!! :shock:

[CoolHandLuke]

As an aside to prove my point: Who do you suspect will be better in 2006: Pujols or Lee? If we judge strictly on 2005 numbers, they will be about as equal a player as you can get. If we judge along three-year averages, there's no question Pujols will be better. I would agree with that. While I don't expect Lee to regress down to his numbers prior to last year, I in no way expect him to reach 2005 numbers either. I'd expect him to produce somewhere in line with his three-year average.

 

That is a good question. If you break it down to "who is the better hitter," I believe it is a no-brainer - Albert Pujols. I really can't think of a better overall hitter in the game than Pujols. Challenges welcome.

 

Despite the fact that Pujols is a pretty good fielding 1st baseman, with the ability to play other positions - I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two. Lee has good wheels, an incredible glove, and the jury is out concerning if he can continue to destroy inside pitching (the main reason he broke out in 2005).

 

It is true that Pujols can steal a base, but Lee has superior speed, a better glove/reach, and a comparable bat (but not a better bat). In addition, I think it is fair to guess that DLee is going to drive in many more runs and score more runs than he did in 2005 - all because of the acquisition of Juan Pierre.

 

I think this could be true if they played a more important position defensively or if Pujols were a butcher with the leather.

[1908]

Right, but when Womack caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Edmonds, and Eckstein caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Eckstein, and even Abraham Nunez caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Edmonds, you have to begin to wonder if there's a reason for it.

The Cards must've been using the invisible-man-on-base rule. I used to hit pretty well in front of myself during our summer Wiffle ball seasons back in the day.

[K-Town]

Right, but when Womack caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Edmonds, and Eckstein caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Eckstein, and even Abraham Nunez caught fire hitting in front of guys like Pujols and Edmonds, you have to begin to wonder if there's a reason for it.

The Cards must've been using the invisible-man-on-base rule. I used to hit pretty well in front of myself during our summer Wiffle ball seasons back in the day.

 

 

Ahhh......... those were the days, weren't they?? :)

[wolf stansson]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

 

As a crackhead this post offends me. Crack isn't nearly powerful enough drug to fool me in to thinking Lee is a better overall player.

 

You sir owe an apology to me and crackheads everywhere.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

As a crackhead this post offends me. Crack isn't nearly powerful enough drug to fool me in to thinking Lee is a better overall player.

 

You sir owe an apology to me and crackheads everywhere.

 

http://www.comedycentral.com/images/shows/chappelle/episodes/season2/205_chappelle_m4.jpg

Waiting...

[wolf stansson]

Crackheads...I'm sorry.

[imb]

fear is never a factor joe rogan

[Magnetic Curses]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

 

so, who do you think is better, carpenter or z?

[ManEatingTarp]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

 

so, who do you think is better, carpenter or z?

 

Oh boy, here we go...

:D

 

Carpenter won the Cy last year, and I would like him on the mound in any game. He is a fantastic pitcher and leader of a very underated staff.

 

I would trade him for Z in a heartbeat because of age and raw talent.

[Magnetic Curses]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

 

so, who do you think is better, carpenter or z?

 

Oh boy, here we go...

:D

 

Carpenter won the Cy last year, and I would like him on the mound in any game. He is a fantastic pitcher and leader of a very underated staff.

 

I would trade him for Z in a heartbeat because of age and raw talent.

 

and if the cubs would have won the wild card, lee would have been the MVP.

 

i just think that when the issue of lee and pujols come up, we should also evaluate what we think of carpenter and z.

 

i'd take pujols in a minute over lee, but i wouldn't take carpenter for zambrano or prior.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would say that Derrek Lee is the better overall player of the two.

Lee's Career

Al's Career'

 

I love Derrek Lee as a player.

 

That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year.

 

so, who do you think is better, carpenter or z?

 

Oh boy, here we go...

:D

 

Carpenter won the Cy last year, and I would like him on the mound in any game. He is a fantastic pitcher and leader of a very underated staff.

 

I would trade him for Z in a heartbeat because of age and raw talent.

 

and if the cubs would have won the wild card, lee would have been the MVP.

 

i just think that when the issue of lee and pujols come up, we should also evaluate what we think of carpenter and z.

 

i'd take pujols in a minute over lee, but i wouldn't take carpenter for zambrano or prior.

 

Excellent point. The same career numbers which make Pujols project better than Lee indicate Zambrano is likely to out perform Carp.

[ManEatingTarp]

 

Excellent point. The same career numbers which make Pujols project better than Lee indicate Zambrano is likely to out perform Carp.

 

I just said I'd take Z over Carp. Z is younger and still has his prime years ahead of him. On that same note, so does Pujols. It's scary to think we may not have seen the best from him yet.

Lee is a great player. On and off the field. If we didn't have Albert on the Cards I would love to have Lee. He is class personified.

 

That said, Pujols is the MVP. Should be the MVP. Will probably be the MVP this year.

The problem with the individual awards for players like Z and Lee is that they are tied to team performance. Wins matter, and the Cubs need to win for the truly great players on their team to be recognized. Finishing 4th in the Central is not going to bring home the award bacon.

[UK1679666180]

While Zambrano doesn't have ideal mechanics, I think he's more sound mechanically than Carpenter.

[Magnetic Curses]

That said, Pujols is the MVP. Should be the MVP. Will probably be the MVP this year.

The problem with the individual awards for players like Z and Lee is that they are tied to team performance. Wins matter, and the Cubs need to win for the truly great players on their team to be recognized.

 

yeah, but that's not lee's fault.

 

we're not talking about team performance, we're talking about individual performance. lee's performance last year was marginally better than pujols's, as carpenter's was marginally better than z's.

 

yes, the cubs suck as a team, you don't need to keep reminding us, we know already.

[ManEatingTarp]

That said, Pujols is the MVP. Should be the MVP. Will probably be the MVP this year.

The problem with the individual awards for players like Z and Lee is that they are tied to team performance. Wins matter, and the Cubs need to win for the truly great players on their team to be recognized.

 

yeah, but that's not lee's fault.

 

we're not talking about team performance, we're talking about individual performance. lee's performance last year was marginally better than pujols's, as carpenter's was marginally better than z's.

 

yes, the cubs suck as a team, you don't need to keep reminding us, we know already.

 

It's my duty as a Cards fan ;)

 

I agree that team success is weighed too much in individual awards.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Back to the original discussion of Cubs leadoff vs Cardinals leadoff.

 

If we take PECOTA's estimation of 266/328/338 with 10 SB's for Eckstein and compare it to PECOTA's projection of 297/348/361 with 49 SB for Pierre, it's quite obvious who is the better option.

 

According to PECOTA, Eckstein will have a VORP of 9.5 while Pierre will have a VORP of 13.0.

[K-Town]

Back to the original discussion of Cubs leadoff vs Cardinals leadoff.

 

If we take PECOTA's estimation of 266/328/338 with 10 SB's for Eckstein and compare it to PECOTA's projection of 297/348/361 with 49 SB for Pierre, it's quite obvious who is the better option.

 

According to PECOTA, Eckstein will have a VORP of 9.5 while Pierre will have a VORP of 13.0.

 

What did PECOTA predict for each of them last year?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

ZIPS puts Pierre projects Pierre almost identical to the PECOTA line with a 293/346/364 with 52 SB's.

 

On the other hand, ZIPS projection is a little more kind to Eckstein than PECOTA, projecting Eckstein to a 284/351/372 line with 11 SBs.

 

Based on the ZIPS projection, the two playes have almost similar production.

[K-Town]

ZIPS puts Pierre projects Pierre almost identical to the PECOTA line with a 293/346/364 with 52 SB's.

 

On the other hand, ZIPS projection is a little more kind to Eckstein than PECOTA, projecting Eckstein to a 284/351/372 line with 11 SBs.

 

Based on the ZIPS projection, the two playes have almost similar production.

 

How accurate was ZIPS in projecting the two, last year?

[UK1679666180]

The two advantages Eckstein has over Pierre are two-strike hitting and pitch recognition. Pierre is good at both, but Eckstein is better at both than Pierre.

 

Pierre is a better pure hitter, bunter, and has more speed to beat out IF grounders.

 

For me, going into next year I value Pierre's better hitting ability and speed moreso than Eckstein's advantage with the two strike hitting and working the count.

 

I predict based on that, Pierre will be the more productive leadoff hitter next year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

For the two batters in question for 2005:

 

Eckstein:

ZIPS- 267/333/328

PECOTA- 267/336/342

Actual- 294/363/405

 

This isn't surprising. Eckstein had a career year in 2005 and computer projection measures aren't going to be able to predict that. That year has been factored into his 2006 numbers.

 

Pierre demonstrates the opposite.

 

Pierre

ZIPS- 308/362/371

PECOTA- 293/341/384

Actual- 286/337/371

 

Both systems over estimated Pierre in 2005 as Pierre performed below his career and 3-year norms.

 

So, while both projections missed a little on each player, PECOTA has a high reliability in predicting hitters, not so reliable in predicting pitchers.

 

Projecting stats is always a bit tricky, but PECOTA does as good a job with hitters as anyone.