Vance Breaks Down the NL Central

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Here's my take on the NL Central as of 1/14/06:

 

The Cardinals are still the hands down favorites. Even with some regression from Carpenter, Rolen will make up for the drop off they'll have in outfield production with the losses of Sanders and Walker. The Cardinals are hoping that 2005 was an aberration for Spivey and I don't like their chances for decent outfield production. On the other hand, the rotation is still solid if not very good with Carpenter, Mulder, Marquis, and Suppan. Reyes if he can remain healthy should be very productive as a number five. The bullpen has been re-tooled, but I figure it to be about equal to last year's production. I don't expect the Cardinals to be as good as last season, but a 90-95 win season isn't out of the question.

 

The Astros still have work to do. If Clemens returns in May, they will be lots better. The top of the rotation is good with Oswalt and Pettitte. Backe isn't a bad #3, but there are huge question marks at the lower end of the rotation. The bullpen will be good for them, but the offense will still stuggle. They also have to still settle some issues with Bagwell and even if they do get the insurance money, is there anyone to spend it on. An outfield of Preston Wilson-Willy Taveras-Jason Lane just isn't impressive. Also, which Morgan Ensberg will appear? Will it be the stud from 2005 or the below average hitter of 2004? My guess is an 84 win season for the Astros. Clemens returning and pitching well could push that up to an 88-90 win season.

 

The Brewers are up and coming and if all the young talent (Fielder, Hardy, Weeks) live up to hype and there isn't serious regression from Clark, the Brewers will be in contention. The have some nice veteran hitters in Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins and the rotation is anchored by Ben Sheets. The rest of the staff is solid. I think they could beneift by one more good pitcher. My gut feeling is they are still one starter and one year away from it, but they should me a team to watch out for. I'd pencil them in at 82-85 wins. Over 500, but barely.

 

The Pirates just don't have enough. There's some nice pitching there (Duke, Perez with more kids on the way) and they've improved the line-up with Casey, but replacing Wilson with Burnitz isn't a good idea. Also, does adding Joe Randa really make a difference? They'll win some games against better teams, but a 79-81 win season is all I see them obtaining.

 

The Reds will have some fire power on offense and will probably beat up on a lot of teams #4 & #5 starters, but when you're best pitcher is Aaron Harang, you've got serious problems. The Reds should trade Dunn for a number of young players, but they won't. As it is the Reds are good for around 70 wins.

 

This brings me to the Cubs. If everything goes right (healthy and effective Wood, healthy Prior, healthy Zambrano, decent production from Williams as a #5) the Cubs could end up in first with 90-95 wins. The pitching could be that good. On the other hand, the offense has some holes (and those will get larger if Hendry trades away Walker), and likely will not be much better than last year's offense. The bullpen should be better, but realistically I think the Cubs are an 84-88 win team. That's likely not good enough for the playoffs. If everything goes right, then yes, but that's a lot to count on everything going right. If everything goes wrong (Lee regresses, Wood not effective, Maddux continues regressing Murton and Cedeno fail, Jones hits like he did last season) the Cubs could be a 75 win team and finish in fourth place. I hope that doesn't happen, but this team has a lot of question marks.

 

Right now I'd pick the division to finish:

 

1. Cardinals

2. Cubs

3. Astros

4. Brewers

5. Pirates

6. Reds

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have a hard time seeing the Cardinal bullpen repeating last year's performance. It would be difficult with the same personnel, and they've probably downgraded on the whole.

[ManEatingTarp]

This may be a first. I agree with Vance on just about every point. Very good post.

 

I also see Wood as the wildcard in the division. His health could be the difference between 1st and 4th for the Cubs.

[indifferent]

Now I understand why hope springs eternal in Chicago...the Cubs have been the team with the biggest wild card tendencies in the Central the last three years, mostly due to the health of their talented starting staff. This is why every year you see pundits everywhere predicting them to finish anywhere from 1st (those still enamored with rotation's potential) to 4th (those wary of Baker's fingerprints). This is also why I'm here frequently, there's much to speculate about.

 

The second biggest wild card is the Brewers as no one knows how their youthful everyday players will pan out this soon. Although, I agree with Vance in that they have some good veteran presence here in Lee and Jenkins.

 

The Cards have slightly downgraded, I'll agree. It doesn't concern me too much because these are low cost, low risk downgrades (except Encarnacion, and possibly Looper). In which case if the risks rail, they won't be that difficult to replace mid-season if need be. Much prefer the marginal moves made to a big gamble or trade. It will be hard to mess up a 100 win team with these moves than a large scale Peter/Paul type move. I also don't agree with TT on the Cards bullpen. The bullpen had a pretty different look from the 04 bullpen and both ended up with the best bullpen ERA. Those predicted losing Calero and Kline would hurt the bullpen, Reyes stepped up out of nowhere and they ended up being just as good. Sure, this is largely predicated upon the health of the starters, but I don't care how good your bullpen is, it will be exposed in a large increase in number of innings pitched.

 

When I look at Vance's predictions, I agree with them also for the most part, but there's also nothing shocking about them. I'd agree with his rankings in the Central, unless the Brewers arrive a year earlier than expected.

[CubinNY]

The Brewers will win this division or win the Wild Card (you heard it here first). The Cards and Astros will show their age. The Cubs will start off poorly and then rebound and be around .500. Dusty will be gone after the ASB. Pittsburgh and Cincinatti don't have enough to contend

 

Yost is a very good manager and they have a good mix of veterans (Lee and Jeokins, Koskie, Sheets) and young studs. They have 3 very good starting pitchers. The bullpen will tell the tale. If Kolb can get lucky with his ground ball outs they will be in business.

 

My prediction as it stands today:

 

Brewers 93 wins

Cardinals 90 wins

Astros 88 wins

Cubs 80 wins

Pittsburgh 77 wins

Cincinnatti 72 wins

[SouthSideRyan]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

[indifferent]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Which brings to bear another question, are the Astros criminally underrated? Seems they're like the Braves the last few years, always counted out despite recent success, but finding a way to get it done.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Which brings to bear another question, are the Astros criminally underrated? Seems they're like the Braves the last few years, always counted out despite recent success, but finding a way to get it done.

 

I really don't think the Astros are underrated. Their offense wasn't anything special last year, and they have done nothing to improve it. They won with pitching which has taken a major hit without Clemens. If he returns in May, I wouldn't underate them, but without him, they are very beatable.

[astrosfan34]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Which brings to bear another question, are the Astros criminally underrated? Seems they're like the Braves the last few years, always counted out despite recent success, but finding a way to get it done.

 

I really don't think the Astros are underrated. Their offense wasn't anything special last year, and they have done nothing to improve it. They won with pitching which has taken a major hit without Clemens. If he returns in May, I wouldn't underate them, but without him, they are very beatable.

 

The only reason I think the Astros will be fine without Clemens is the fact that they gave him ridiculously low run support, and lost a great deal of the games he pitched anyways. I think the division will go:

 

Cards

Astros (WC)

Cubs

Brewers

Pirates

Reds

 

The top 3, and maybe 4, could go any way, though. Should be an interesting season. If Clemens comes back, I pick the Astros to win the division.

[RockTheIvy]

I think the Brewers are still a year off. They will make the division a lot more competetive but I don't think they will make a serious push until 2007.

[TruffleShuffle]

I say the Cubs finish 3rd or 4th in the Central, but are never really a factor in the race. The talent is just not there.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

Cardinals- They have gotten worse but so has the cubs and astros. Of is bad but Rolen should be healthy. The pitching is going to fail someday, right?

 

Brewers- Overrated...maybe..but they are looking like the Twins of three years ago, and they have improved in all areas they lacked. The key is the play of Fielder and Weeks.

 

Cubs- Im conflicted. they could win 90 or lose 90. The main problem is that the outfield has become a disaster since 03', and the starting pitching is unstable.

 

Astros- At this point you cannot expect Ensberg to hit the way he did last year. The outfield is the worst in the division(now that berkman is heading to first) and the relief pitching behind lidge is average.

 

Pirates- Casey, Randa, Burnitz are good low cost additions that should produce solid midrange prospects come trade deadline. Their pitching is impressive but way too young and the outfield depth is better than expected with bay, wilson, burnie, gerut, and chris duffy.

 

Reds- This teams roster is criminally mismanaged... While there is a premium for power hitting of in the baseball market, The reds have squandered chances to improve the worst pitching staff in the majors by continually refusing to trade dunn, pena, or the vastly overrated kearns. two of which they cant afford anyway..three counting Griffey.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

One major significant reason for the Cards sucess the last 2 years was their healthy starting rotation. IIRC,The Cards were the only team in MLB in 05' to have all starting 5, start 30+ games. We will see if their luck continues.

[Derwood]

I think the Cubs will repeat 2005 in one respect. Last season I'm pretty sure that they were never more than 5 games above or below .500. They were consistently mediocre.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Couldn't agree with you more.

 

They were at .500 last year, honestly what have they done so well this offseason to push them into WC or Division champs?

[jdbrew]

Tell me you're kidding... what did the Brewers do during the offseason? They aged a year.

 

With a team this young... expect the players to step up their games and their results... Milwaukee no longer has to depend on the works of their GM. The players are there.

 

Criminally overrated? Please.

[Drew Doughty]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West. They'll benefit from that. They'll also benefit from age.

 

I think they'll end up somewhere between 85-95 wins, depending on how well they play in the division. If they suck against the division, 3rd place, 85 wins. If they're good, 94-95 wins, 1st. That can also be said for at least the Cubs and Cardinals, probably the Astros too.

[SouthSideRyan]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West. They'll benefit from that. They'll also benefit from age.

 

I think they'll end up somewhere between 85-95 wins, depending on how well they play in the division. If they suck against the division, 3rd place, 85 wins. If they're good, 94-95 wins, 1st. That can also be said for at least the Cubs and Cardinals, probably the Astros too.

 

JUST ahead of the NL West? The NL West is still horrible and the Cards are still the best team in the NL. I'd take the Cards, Cubs, Stros, and Brewers over any team in the NL West.

[Drew Doughty]

Meh, mix up in words I guess. I meant that they're just ahead, as in where I'd seed them, as in, they're 5th but the West is 6th.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Tell me you're kidding... what did the Brewers do during the offseason? They aged a year.

 

With a team this young... expect the players to step up their games and their results... Milwaukee no longer has to depend on the works of their GM. The players are there.

 

Criminally overrated? Please.

 

Nope, I am not kidding. They replaced Overbay with a "promising young talent" in Fielder, he could be great, he could be a bust. He is no Pujols or DLee. They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year. Brady Clark will come down from earth and Jenkins will continue to be Jenkins. Carlos Lee will have a huge contract year, other than that I don't see their offense doing much better than last year. Miller behind the plate is great for "D" but leaves much to be desired with the bat.

 

Other than "1 year older" what makes them better this year?

[baseball7897]

Yeah i been drinking the blue Koolaid, but i think the Cubs will win in the nl central. The Cardinals lost alot in the bullpen and with Rolen's injury i doubt he will be the same. He just had major shoulder surgery, and look at somone else in the Nl central who had major shoulder surgery (Bagwell). If and that is a BIG IF, when Kerry Wood comes back and contributes like the way he did in 02 and 03 and Mark Prior stay healthy they should be the favorites.

[Magnetic Curses]

i think the cards are the favorites until they display why they shouldn't be.

 

i also think that the cubs are behind the brewers, and, depending on clemens, the astros. and they deserve to be until THEY display why they shouldn't be.

[ManEatingTarp]

Yeah i been drinking the blue Koolaid, but i think the Cubs will win in the nl central. The Cardinals lost alot in the bullpen and with Rolen's injury i doubt he will be the same. He just had major shoulder surgery, and look at somone else in the Nl central who had major shoulder surgery (Bagwell). If and that is a BIG IF, when Kerry Wood comes back and contributes like the way he did in 02 and 03 and Mark Prior stay healthy they should be the favorites.

 

Because shoulder surgery is less of a problem for a pitcher than a 3rd baseman?

 

As long as the Cubs keep counting on Kerry Wood to lead them to the post season I'll predict another team to win the division.

[Backtobanks]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West. They'll benefit from that. They'll also benefit from age.

 

I think they'll end up somewhere between 85-95 wins, depending on how well they play in the division. If they suck against the division, 3rd place, 85 wins. If they're good, 94-95 wins, 1st. That can also be said for at least the Cubs and Cardinals, probably the Astros too.

 

There's no way the Brewers can win 95 games. That being said, the Cards are still the favorites and the Cubs need them to come down to the 90-win plateau. The Cubs and the Cards have a chance of winning 90 games, but not the Astros or Brewers and certainly not the Pirates or Reds.

[JoeH33]

They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year.

 

Post All-Star break, JJ put up a .308 BA and a .866 OPS. I wouldnt exactly call that struggling. Also, when looking at his numbers the first half of last year, you have to take into consideration that JJ basically skipped AAA because of a shoulder injury he suffered early in the 2004 season.