Hosak's Gone Crazy (Trading Prior AND Others...)

[Hosak8]

Maybe it's all the Prior for Tejada talk ad nauseum, but I've gone a bit stir crazy waiting for news. So, I just made up my own. COme one, Jim, listen to me and go get these moves done ASAP!

 

1. Prior, Williams, and Cedeno to Texas for Texeira and Young.

 

2. D.Lee, Rusch, and Patterson to Anaheim for Figgins and Ervin Santana

 

3. Murton, Pie, and Hill to Pittsburgh for Jason Bay.

 

4. Pierre, Walker, and Guzman to Cleveland for Sizemore.

 

Add cash where necessary. Throw in Dopirak, Marshall, or Gallagher where needed.

 

Our new lineup would be:

 

1. Figgins (S) 2B

2. Sizemore (L) CF

3. Ramirez ® 3B

4. Texeira (S) 1B

5. Bay ® LF

6. Young ® SS

7. Jones ® RF

8. Barrett ® C

 

Rotation would need a little help, but we'd have:

 

Z, Wood, Santana, Maddux, Free Agent (Weaver)

 

Sure, Iowa would be terrible, but I could live with that for this lineup.

[Mizzou]

Deal numero uno is the only one I could really live with. Without checking the numbers, I'd have to say that we're getting ripped off royally in the other trades that you propose.

 

On a side note, it really pisses me off that people are concocting Prior trade proposals. Perhaps this is Hendry's goal - to get Cubs fans to expect him to be dealt. But unless we make a deal that GREATLY improves our team, I'm strongly opposed to trading Prior.

[Hosak8]

Deal numero uno is the only one I could really live with. Without checking the numbers, I'd have to say that we're getting ripped off royally in the other trades that you propose.

 

On a side note, it really pisses me off that people are concocting Prior trade proposals. Perhaps this is Hendry's goal - to get Cubs fans to expect him to be dealt. But unless we make a deal that GREATLY improves our team, I'm strongly opposed to trading Prior.

 

Really? I could live with all 4. The Pittsburgh deal is one in which we give up the most *potential*, but we give it up for a guy who is 27 and outperformed ALL outfielders last year. His numbers are better than Miggy Cabrera's, and I bet most people would make that tade for him. Just a few numbers of the others that I proposed offers for:

 

Bay: .305/.401/.559 with 32 HR and 21 SB in his 2nd full season. He's 27.

Sizemore: .289/.348/.484 w/ 22HR and 22SB in his 1st full season. He's 23.

Figgins: .289/.351/.397 with 8HR and 62 SB in his 2nd full season. He's 28.

 

That's alot of production. Murton will never reach Bay's numbers. Pie will hopefully develop into Sizemore's, but Sizemore has lots of developing of his own to do. Figgins isn't a star, but he's fast, versatile (plays 2B, 3B, and OF), and quite the bargain. Gives us 3 or 4 years for EPatt to develop. Plus, the gem of that deal is Santana. And, let's be honest here... who really expects Lee to match what he did last year?

 

All in all, I think they are realistic deals, and while we do pay alot, we get lots of production, we stay young and pretty cheap, and we give ourselves a better chance to win NOW as well as TOMORROW. Plus, with the pitching available in 2006-7 free agency, we could add Mulder and Garland while subtracting Wood and Maddux and have a top 4 of Zambrano, Mulder, Garland and Santana, and that would be nasty...

[Mizzou]

Very well thought out, Hosak, but I don't agree with your direction. A few comments:

 

1. I'm not ready to give up our three top prospects (in my eyes) for Jason Bay. Just my personal preference, but I wouldn't do it.

 

2. I'm probably one of the few, but I do expect DLee to match his 2005 numbers next year, or if not, to come very close. It'd be one thing if he had an extremely lucky month or something, but he didn't. He apparently figured something out in ST to cure his typical slow start. With that in mind, I don't see how you can expect him to NOT produce numbers similar to those that he put up last year. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Figgins, let alone along with others.

 

3. Sizemore is the better overall player and he gives you more pop than Pierre, but is he really worth giving up our leadoff hitter, our number two hitter, AND a top pitching prospect? Not in my opinion.

 

I personally think we're an impact bat away from being the favorite in the NL Central. But if that impact bat costs us Mark Prior, then it's a step back.

[Hosak8]

Very well thought out, Hosak, but I don't agree with your direction. A few comments:

 

1. I'm not ready to give up our three top prospects (in my eyes) for Jason Bay. Just my personal preference, but I wouldn't do it.

 

2. I'm probably one of the few, but I do expect DLee to match his 2005 numbers next year, or if not, to come very close. It'd be one thing if he had an extremely lucky month or something, but he didn't. He apparently figured something out in ST to cure his typical slow start. With that in mind, I don't see how you can expect him to NOT produce numbers similar to those that he put up last year. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Figgins, let alone along with others.

 

3. Sizemore is the better overall player and he gives you more pop than Pierre, but is he really worth giving up our leadoff hitter, our number two hitter, AND a top pitching prospect? Not in my opinion.

 

I personally think we're an impact bat away from being the favorite in the NL Central. But if that impact bat costs us Mark Prior, then it's a step back.

 

Mizzou...

 

I think you said it best... we're just coming from different sides here. No, I wouldn't make one of these trades without being able to make them all. But, I would trade our leadoff and 2 hole hitters for a 2 hole hitter, provided we get a leadoff hitter in another deal (as we would.)

 

I am just not one who buys into the accepted value of our prospects any longer. Murton is a good prospect, but nowehere near elite, and highly unlikely to ever approach Bay's productivity. Pie is very good, but will he really outproduce Sizemore? Maybe. But, if Sizemore continues to develop, he's got 30/30 potential, as well as .950 OPS potential. Does Pie? I'm not so sure about that. Cedeno is good, but no one expects him to reach the numbers Michael Young has posted. Hill has potential, as does Guzman, but I'd take Santana over either right now. Williams is a #3 at best.

 

Also, do you realize that the starting lineup we would field would cost us approximately 26 million dollars? Other than ARam, no other starter would cost more than 4 million dollars. that gives us a lot of wiggle room to add players. And, even with salary bumps due for 2007, we'd have TONS of money to throw at guys. Remember, Bay is already locked up for a few years, as is Young. Sizemore and Figgins are not eligible for arby for a couple more years, so that is low cost production out of those slots. Same for Santana. Texeira will be costly, but so is Lee. ARam will continue to be costly, but that's okay. I'd guess that we'd go into 2007 with around 55-60 million dollars owed to 17 guys, leaving somewhere around 50-60 million for 8 players. That's alot of dough.

 

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, Mizzou. I just feel that these trades make us better on the field, better on the budget, ad keeps us from dealing Prior and Hill for Tejada and Bedard.

[imb]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

[Careless]

2. I'm probably one of the few, but I do expect DLee to match his 2005 numbers next year, or if not, to come very close. It'd be one thing if he had an extremely lucky month or something, but he didn't. He apparently figured something out in ST to cure his typical slow start.

I'm probably not the only one, but if I knew you I'd try to bet you that lee would wind up with an ops at least ..075 lower than last season's

But I don't think it's something worth arguing about at length at this point.

[wilk]

2. I'm probably one of the few, but I do expect DLee to match his 2005 numbers next year, or if not, to come very close. It'd be one thing if he had an extremely lucky month or something, but he didn't. He apparently figured something out in ST to cure his typical slow start.

I'm probably not the only one, but if I knew you I'd try to bet you that lee would wind up with an ops at least ..075 lower than last season's

But I don't think it's something worth arguing about at length at this point.

 

I'd call .075 lower close. I think the question is whether he drops about .220. If he's still over 1.000, then that's still much more similar to 2005 than any other point of his career.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

When do new fantasy baseball leagues launch? mid-Februrary?

[Fred Hornkohl]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

[SAMMYWHO]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

 

He's probably thinking the old sign and trade thing. Technically we haven't signed Pierre yet.

[JeffH]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

 

He's probably thinking the old sign and trade thing. Technically we haven't signed Pierre yet.

 

Even after we sign Pierre, we can still trade him. Not that we would.

[SAMMYWHO]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

 

He's probably thinking the old sign and trade thing. Technically we haven't signed Pierre yet.

 

Even after we sign Pierre, we can still trade him. Not that we would.

 

Do you know the rule on that Jeff? I would be curious to know about sign and trade with players in the MLB. I was told most other sports can do it but not in the MLB. Thanks in advance.

[BigbadB]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

 

He's probably thinking the old sign and trade thing. Technically we haven't signed Pierre yet.

 

Even after we sign Pierre, we can still trade him. Not that we would.

 

Do you know the rule on that Jeff? I would be curious to know about sign and trade with players in the MLB. I was told most other sports can do it but not in the MLB. Thanks in advance.

 

Jeff can probably answer that one better than I, but I believe the only way it can be done prior to June 1st is if the player approves of the trade.

[JeffH]

I believe that the rule in question applies only to players who you signed out of the free agent pool.

 

0-3 guys and players who are merely arb eligible can be traded at any time.

 

The Cubs can't trade either Neifi or Jacque until this summer, unless he grants his permission.

 

The Cubs can trade Pierre, Prior, Hairston, Novoa, Soto, Dopirak, Brownlie, Chris Shaver, etc. anytime they want (subject to any no-trade clauses, of course).

 

I think...

[dacheezwhiz]

2. D.Lee, Rusch, and Patterson to Anaheim for Figgins and Ervin Santana

 

This is the only trade i wouldnt do but i think we could get them to give us brandon wood in addition which makes this a no brainer to me. Maybe we thrown in dopirak or harvey or something

[Hosak8]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Texeira is one of the game's top 5 young stars. He'll hit.

 

Maybe Lee alone is worth more than those 2, but I don't believe he'll come close to repeating what he did last year.

 

I think you'd be surprised what Pitt will do, especially for such high quality prospects.

 

Pierre CAN be traded, and I think that Cleveland would make a move, if the compensation was right.

 

All just my opinions, of course.

[BigbadB]

Texeira is one of the game's top 5 young stars. He'll hit.

 

I agree. In fact, he would probably hit more. Texas is the only real hitter's haven in that division. The NL Central doesn't have a poor hitters park to speak of.

[imb]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Why is that? I wasn't aware that Pierre had a no trade clause.

 

Sorry, I meant won't be traded.

[imb]

Tex is no bet to hit outside of Arlington, Figgins and Santana arent worth DLee alone, Pitt wont trade Bay for prospects, Pierre cant be traded, and those players arent worth Grady.

 

Texeira is one of the game's top 5 young stars. He'll hit.

 

Maybe Lee alone is worth more than those 2, but I don't believe he'll come close to repeating what he did last year.

 

I think you'd be surprised what Pitt will do, especially for such high quality prospects.

 

Pierre CAN be traded, and I think that Cleveland would make a move, if the compensation was right.

 

All just my opinions, of course.

 

In the last 3 years, Teix has posted a road ops over .808 once. There's no doubt that he's a good player, and if you're trading for him while being sure that he can play in the outfield, then maybe you do it.

 

Bay will not be traded. END OF STORY. He just signed a 4 year deal in November that keeps him with the Pirates for less than 5 a year. No way they trade him.

 

Sizemore is already better than Pierre. The Indians are primed to take the AL central, why would they want to downgrade one of their most popular players? It's a good bet that their GM realizes how overrated Pierre is, not to mention, Hendry went after him for a reason. He won't be traded.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think you'd be surprised what Pitt will do, especially for such high quality prospects.

 

Murton, Pie, and Hill are nice but Jason Bay had the 5th highest VORP in baseball last year. That's higher than Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Vladimir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. He's a budding superstar.

[RynoRules]

Jason Bay is an uber-Giles. He's the cornerstone of that team and if they can make themselves competitive, he should be a Pirate for life.

 

(a fate worse than death?)

[1908]

Jason Bay had the 5th highest VORP in baseball last year. That's higher than Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Vladimir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. He's a budding superstar.

Bay is an amazing talent, but he's almost four and a half years older than Miguel Cabrera. I do agree with your point, though.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If we're going to be that crazy with making moves, why not sit Jones on the bench and give Pie a shot? We could live with his growing pains in that lineup.