Murton's success a dangerous assumption

[Derwood]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

[CuseCubFan69]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Why does everyone assume Murton will struggle? He put up some less than spectacular numbers in his brief stint with Daytona, but he's lit it up everywhere he's gone since.

 

301/372/452/824 - Sarasota (BoSox A, 2004)

342/403/498/901 - West Tenn

353/421/500/921 - Iowa (granted, only 34 ABs)

321/386/521/907 - Chicago

 

Is it at all possible that he is actually a pretty good player?

[Derwood]

i don't assume he will, i fear what will happen if he does. two different things

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why does everyone assume Murton will struggle? He put up some less than spectacular numbers in his brief stint with Daytona, but he's lit it up everywhere he's gone since.

 

301/372/452/824 - Sarasota (BoSox A, 2004)

342/403/498/901 - West Tenn

353/421/500/921 - Iowa (granted, only 34 ABs)

321/386/521/907 - Chicago

 

Is it at all possible that he is actually a pretty good player?

 

First of all, you can throw out his Iowa numbers. 34 ABs isn't going to tell you anything.

 

In '04, Murton hit .292/.370/.428 in the FSL. That's a solid line in a pitcher's league, although he was a year old for it.

 

In West Tennessee and Chicago in '05, his numbers are very much BABIP driven. In his larger sample at AA, he didn't improve his power or his patience(patience went down actually), but performed better because he hit .342. Murton's not going to hit anywhere near .342 at the major league level. He'll be lucky to hit .300, at which his numbers would be .300/.360/.440. That's an .800 OPS, which is okay for a corner OF, as the high end of what to expect from Murton.

 

His BABIP issues continued in Chicago. He did hit for more power, which was a promising sign. However, he did so in about a third of the PA's as he had at AA. More worrisome was that a much larger than expected number of his hits came on infield singles and the like. We can't expect those to continue, unless he's mastered the art of hitting an infield single, which I doubt.

 

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

[frostwyrm]

If Murton had the gotten the proper playing time we wouldn't have this uncertainty. We can thank Dusty for this.

[Derwood]

right, and with pierre in CF and potentially Wilson or Encarnacio in RF, you're talking 50 HR total most likely. I just can't project Murton into the 20+ range until he gets a full year under his beltt

 

I hope I'm wrong of course

[Ding Dong Johnson]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

[frostwyrm]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

If Murton starts poorly against RH pitching then he will certainly lose a lot of AB's to the LH veteran Mabry. Any rookie who only bats right-handed is at a terrible disadvantage on a Dusty Baker team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

 

Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that.

[hardcorecubfan]

Why does everyone assume Murton will struggle? He put up some less than spectacular numbers in his brief stint with Daytona, but he's lit it up everywhere he's gone since.

 

301/372/452/824 - Sarasota (BoSox A, 2004)

342/403/498/901 - West Tenn

353/421/500/921 - Iowa (granted, only 34 ABs)

321/386/521/907 - Chicago

 

Is it at all possible that he is actually a pretty good player?

 

I hope so, I pray so but we have a tendency to get over-excited about anything that has promise ie: Corey Patterson

[Ding Dong Johnson]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

 

Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that.

 

Murton is here to stay, and I'm guessing his OPS will be more in the 850-900 range consistently. I really don't see him struggling enough to give Dusty a reason to keep him out of the lineup. Murton is the type of hitter that this team has been lacking for too long (a good one). Remember, he was drafted by the BoSox, not the Cubs. He's bound to be good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

 

Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that.

 

Murton is here to stay, and I'm guessing his OPS will be more in the 850-900 range consistently. I really don't see him struggling enough to give Dusty a reason to keep him out of the lineup. Murton is the type of hitter that this team has been lacking for too long (a good one). Remember, he was drafted by the BoSox, not the Cubs. He's bound to be good.

 

I hope so, but as I outlined above, there's a very very high likelihood he isn't going to reach an .850 OPS.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Why does everyone assume Murton will struggle? He put up some less than spectacular numbers in his brief stint with Daytona, but he's lit it up everywhere he's gone since.

 

301/372/452/824 - Sarasota (BoSox A, 2004)

342/403/498/901 - West Tenn

353/421/500/921 - Iowa (granted, only 34 ABs)

321/386/521/907 - Chicago

 

Is it at all possible that he is actually a pretty good player?

 

First of all, you can throw out his Iowa numbers. 34 ABs isn't going to tell you anything.

 

In '04, Murton hit .292/.370/.428 in the FSL. That's a solid line in a pitcher's league, although he was a year old for it.

 

In West Tennessee and Chicago in '05, his numbers are very much BABIP driven. In his larger sample at AA, he didn't improve his power or his patience(patience went down actually), but performed better because he hit .342. Murton's not going to hit anywhere near .342 at the major league level. He'll be lucky to hit .300, at which his numbers would be .300/.360/.440. That's an .800 OPS, which is okay for a corner OF, as the high end of what to expect from Murton.

 

His BABIP issues continued in Chicago. He did hit for more power, which was a promising sign. However, he did so in about a third of the PA's as he had at AA. More worrisome was that a much larger than expected number of his hits came on infield singles and the like. We can't expect those to continue, unless he's mastered the art of hitting an infield single, which I doubt.

 

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

Wow, great post. I really respect how you back up your opinions with interesting stats.

[Peoriaman]

God, we whine a lot. Everybody is a young player sometime. Let's give the kid a chance. EVERYBODY is a risk. Any player could do badly. Let the damn kid play and stop worrying over it. If he doesn't succeed, so be it.

 

 

:)

[badger1679666666]

Why does everyone assume Murton will struggle? He put up some less than spectacular numbers in his brief stint with Daytona, but he's lit it up everywhere he's gone since.

 

301/372/452/824 - Sarasota (BoSox A, 2004)

342/403/498/901 - West Tenn

353/421/500/921 - Iowa (granted, only 34 ABs)

321/386/521/907 - Chicago

 

Is it at all possible that he is actually a pretty good player?

 

First of all, you can throw out his Iowa numbers. 34 ABs isn't going to tell you anything.

 

In '04, Murton hit .292/.370/.428 in the FSL. That's a solid line in a pitcher's league, although he was a year old for it.

 

In West Tennessee and Chicago in '05, his numbers are very much BABIP driven. In his larger sample at AA, he didn't improve his power or his patience(patience went down actually), but performed better because he hit .342. Murton's not going to hit anywhere near .342 at the major league level. He'll be lucky to hit .300, at which his numbers would be .300/.360/.440. That's an .800 OPS, which is okay for a corner OF, as the high end of what to expect from Murton.

 

His BABIP issues continued in Chicago. He did hit for more power, which was a promising sign. However, he did so in about a third of the PA's as he had at AA. More worrisome was that a much larger than expected number of his hits came on infield singles and the like. We can't expect those to continue, unless he's mastered the art of hitting an infield single, which I doubt.

 

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

Wow, great post. I really respect how you back up your opinions with interesting stats.

 

Yes but you know what they say about statistics:

 

You can always find something to back up your point of view. Numbers can be easily twisted, different statistics can be looked at to prove a point.

 

(Not saying Cpatt20 doesn't make credible posts, just that it's possible to find statistics that say just about anything you want them to, in general*).

 

*Unless a guy sucks as much as Neifi or Macias.

[Andy]

I don't know what Murton will do in 2006, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't become a very good player for the Cubs sooner rather than later. I haven't felt confident about a Cub prospect's future in a while like I do with Murton.

[Guest]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

 

Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that.

From a previous Murton thread:

 

Bob's Keeper[/url]"]Murton's GB/LD/FB split last season was 76/14/26. That in itself isn't too interesting, though it should be noted that players who hit that many ground balls rarely hit with much power. The really interesting thing is how often each of those batted ball types turned into hits. Here's murton's BA on each of the batted ball types, followed by the 2005 league average:

 

              GB        LD       FB
Murton     0.289     0.929    0.385
Lg. Avg.   0.257     0.717    0.237

Bob's Keeper[/url]"]

But regarding his percentage of GB, LD, and FB to fall for hits above league average, doesn't a smart hitter try to place his hit? I realize that may not be an easy thing, but if he was the best in our system at strike zone judgement and contact hitter(or whatever the other was) then would it not be that unrealstic to believe that he just has the ability to place the ball where defenders are not? So that those high numbers are a result of skill rather than luck, as it seemed to be implied.

I'd argue that there such variations are mostly due to luck, though there's probably a bit of luck involved. If and when I find the time I might take a look at how stable those numbers tend to be from year-to-year. The results would give us a better idea of just how much is due skill and how muchis due to luck or other factors.

I've finally had time to run those numbers, and the results do not bode well for Murton. I took all players with at least 400 PA in each of 2004 and 2005 and ran a correlation between his respective BAs on GB, FB, and LD. As I expected, there's not a lot of consistency in how often a player turns a specific batted ball type into a hit. Here's a nice pretty graph:

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v384/bobskeeper/BBT.jpg

 

The rate at which line drives drop for hits looks to be more or less random with a near zero year-to-year correlation. There's a bit more consistency (though not much) in how often a player turns ground balls into hits. The reason for this is because a consistent trait (speed) plays a large role in how often a player can scratch out an infield hit. Finally, a player's BA on fly balls is comparatively stable. This is because the vast majority of FB hits come on home runs, so a player who hits with a lot of power will usually be able to maintain a higher BA on fly balls. (For examlpe, Bobby Abreu usually hits around .300 on fly balls, whereas Pierre has hit in the .150 range.)

 

What does this mean for Murton? For one, he can probably kiss that .929 average on line drives goodbye. Similarly, his skill set doesn't seem like it would be able to sustain that higher than normal average on ground balls. Finally, I don't think he'll be able to hit with enough power to maintain that BA on fly balls when I see players like Lee, Abreu, and ARod typically hit in the .300-.350 range on those batted ball types.

 

If Murton maintains his GB/LD/FB ratio from last year (and those ratios are much more stable than their respective batting averages) I would peg his 2006 numbers in the general vicinity of the various projection methods; .280/.340/.440 or thereabouts. That's not bad for a young, cheap player, but when you consider the rest of our outfield situations "not bad" probably won't cut it.

[CubinNY]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

The only thing in that line that is sub-par is slugging. IFthe Cubs could land either Abreu or Tejada they could very well get away with Murton's lack of power.

 

I knew he doesn't project for much power but he does generate very good bat speed, if he can learn to seperate and elevate a little more I think he could become a 20-25 HR hitter. Not too shabby for the "stepchild"*.

 

*I have nothing against stepchildren or redheads, it is a nickname.

[goonys evil twin]

I would peg his 2006 numbers in the general vicinity of the various projection methods; .280/.340/.440 or thereabouts. That's not bad for a young, cheap player, but when you consider the rest of our outfield situations "not bad" probably won't cut it.

 

My thoughts exactly. Murton is a nice $350,000 option for a team with a solid lineup, not a guy you can count on to make up for the lack of production elsewhere in the OF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

The only thing in that line that is sub-par is slugging. IFthe Cubs could land either Abreu or Tejada they could very well get away with Murton's lack of power.

 

I knew he doesn't project for much power but he does generate very good bat speed, if he can learn to seperate and elevate a little more I think he could become a 20-25 HR hitter. Not too shabby for the "stepchild"*.

 

*I have nothing against stepchildren or redheads, it is a nickname.

 

A .280 AVG would've placed Murton of 13th of 22 qualified LF'ers last year.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 16th of 22.

 

A .760 OPS would've been 18th of 22.

 

I think "decidedly subpar" is a pretty good way of putting it.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Yes but you know what they say about statistics:

 

You can always find something to back up your point of view. Numbers can be easily twisted, different statistics can be looked at to prove a point.

 

(Not saying Cpatt20 doesn't make credible posts, just that it's possible to find statistics that say just about anything you want them to, in general*).

 

*Unless a guy sucks as much as Neifi or Macias.

 

I agree, in fact I don't always agree with the conclusions drawn from stats by posters on here however it's always nice to see a method to the madness.

[CubinNY]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

The only thing in that line that is sub-par is slugging. IFthe Cubs could land either Abreu or Tejada they could very well get away with Murton's lack of power.

 

I knew he doesn't project for much power but he does generate very good bat speed, if he can learn to seperate and elevate a little more I think he could become a 20-25 HR hitter. Not too shabby for the "stepchild"*.

 

*I have nothing against stepchildren or redheads, it is a nickname.

 

A .280 AVG would've placed Murton of 13th of 22 qualified LF'ers last year.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 16th of 22.

 

A .760 OPS would've been 18th of 22.

 

I think "decidedly subpar" is a pretty good way of putting it.

 

I was speaking in terms of a "rookie" season although I know he no longer qualifies as a rookie. I also think only using "qualified" LFers is a bit too narrow. In any event I don't think those numbers are sub par.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

The only thing in that line that is sub-par is slugging. IFthe Cubs could land either Abreu or Tejada they could very well get away with Murton's lack of power.

 

I knew he doesn't project for much power but he does generate very good bat speed, if he can learn to seperate and elevate a little more I think he could become a 20-25 HR hitter. Not too shabby for the "stepchild"*.

 

*I have nothing against stepchildren or redheads, it is a nickname.

 

A .280 AVG would've placed Murton of 13th of 22 qualified LF'ers last year.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 16th of 22.

 

A .760 OPS would've been 18th of 22.

 

I think "decidedly subpar" is a pretty good way of putting it.

 

I was speaking in terms of a "rookie" season although I know he no longer qualifies as a rookie. I also think only using "qualified" LFers is a bit too narrow. In any event I don't think those numbers are sub par.

 

LFers with at least 350 PA's, Murton would make 30:

 

A .280 AVG would've been 18th.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 22nd.

 

A .760 OPS would've 23rd.

 

His numbers would be about average for a CF, but at a corner he's pretty easily below.

[CubinNY]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

The only thing in that line that is sub-par is slugging. IFthe Cubs could land either Abreu or Tejada they could very well get away with Murton's lack of power.

 

I knew he doesn't project for much power but he does generate very good bat speed, if he can learn to seperate and elevate a little more I think he could become a 20-25 HR hitter. Not too shabby for the "stepchild"*.

 

*I have nothing against stepchildren or redheads, it is a nickname.

 

A .280 AVG would've placed Murton of 13th of 22 qualified LF'ers last year.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 16th of 22.

 

A .760 OPS would've been 18th of 22.

 

I think "decidedly subpar" is a pretty good way of putting it.

 

I was speaking in terms of a "rookie" season although I know he no longer qualifies as a rookie. I also think only using "qualified" LFers is a bit too narrow. In any event I don't think those numbers are sub par.

 

LFers with at least 350 PA's, Murton would make 30:

 

A .280 AVG would've been 18th.

 

A .340 OBP would've been 22nd.

 

A .760 OPS would've 23rd.

 

His numbers would be about average for a CF, but at a corner he's pretty easily below.

 

And for Rookies with 350 PAs that line would put him just behind Jonny Gomes and just ahead of Iguchi in 8th place.

 

IF the Cubs could get more power production from either RF or SS I could live that line. Especially if he demonstrates a little more pop and cracks the .800 OPS mark.

 

Something like .280/.340/.470

 

I don't think that is unrealistic at all.