Thursday Bruce article.....

[Hoosiercubbie]

Of those two deals, which would you consider to be the longshot? Lugo and Huff?

[Lefty]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

The Sox won with great pitching. Podsednik was in Left Field. Don't confuse correlation with causation. The Cubs can win with Pierre if Wood, Prior and Zambrano total 100 starts.

[Magnetic Curses]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

you're kidding, right?

 

there are 162 games in a ML season, correct? if you watch the team play everyday and assume that you can learn everything you need to know, you're naive. if you watched the marlins play 162 games in 2004 and watched them play 162 games in 2005, without having any access to statistics, you wouldn't know the difference between pierre 04 and pierre 05.

 

the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is like 1 hit a week, how in the bloody heck can you see that by ignoring stats?

 

trusting only in outdated conventional wisdom is foolish. the world is not flat, nor is the earth the center of the universe, and put your torch and pitchfork down.

[Dr. Cub]

At the winter meetings, it was suggested that the non-Pierre trade proposal Hendry had on the table may have been with the Devil Rays for Huff and/or Lugo.

 

Here we have the first on-topic post in the thread, deep into page 2. :)

 

I think the other offer on the table is for Wilkerson myself.

 

I believe you're right on with the Wilkerson idea. I think that while he may not seem like a typical Hendry guy, he does fit the mold of a talent that had a down year. Which is something JH seems to like to go after.

Edited December 15, 2005 by Dr. Cub

[Blueheart05]

Maybe I missed it but the article mentions that Hendry has two trade proposals for a right fielder pending - one of which has been pending for 2 weeks and the other that even the Cubs consider a longshot. Any ideas as to the teams/individuals involved?

 

I think the longest proposal is for Tampa (Lugo & Huff or only Huff). The Suntimes reported over a week ago that Hendry was awaiting word on a multiplayer deal during the Winter Meetings but at that time the DRays were talking to other clubs as well so I think it's still on the table. I have no idea about the second trade.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

The Sox won with great pitching. Podsednik was in Left Field. Don't confuse correlation with causation. The Cubs can win with Pierre if Wood, Prior and Zambrano total 100 starts each.

 

There....fixed, play them in right when they are not pitching!

 

I think what really hurts the Cubs in trades is that they don't have the proverbial 3rd starter on this team. They have two #1's, a possible 1 in Wood that is hurt and 3 #5's.

[JeffH]

Hendry, from the Sun-Times:

 

"We have inquired about trades that would have been asking people to give up what they couldn't replace."

 

Ibanez would fit as a guy that the Mariners couldn't replace from their in-house stock of talent.

 

Huff would not. The Devil Rays have plenty of other outfielders. They have Crawford, Baldelli, and Gomes. Gathright, although it seems like he's going to be traded. Young on the way.

[Lefty]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

The Sox won with great pitching. Podsednik was in Left Field. Don't confuse correlation with causation. The Cubs can win with Pierre if Wood, Prior and Zambrano total 100 starts each.

 

It is not nice to edit other people's posts.

 

There....fixed, play them in right when they are not pitching!

 

I think what really hurts the Cubs in trades is that they don't have the proverbial 3rd starter on this team. They have two #1's, a possible 1 in Wood that is hurt and 3 #5's.

[JeffH]

Of those two deals, which would you consider to be the longshot? Lugo and Huff?

 

No, I think that this is the one that Hendry believes is fair and realistic.

[Magnetic Curses]

Hendry, from the Sun-Times:

 

"We have inquired about trades that would have been asking people to give up what they couldn't replace."

 

Ibanez would fit as a guy that the Mariners couldn't replace from their in-house stock of talent.

 

Huff would not. The Devil Rays have plenty of other outfielders. They have Crawford, Baldelli, and Gomes. Gathright, although it seems like he's going to be traded. Young on the way.

 

huff is burnitz without the glove, but with the ability to play some IF.

[Blueheart05]

Of those two deals, which would you consider to be the longshot? Lugo and Huff?

 

I think he means the Ibanez trade is a long shot but that's just a guess.

[RynoRules]

One next to last thing, Slappy is not deragatory in any way, it describes his hitting approach. But I don't know that for sure as I've never seen him play.

 

C'mon now. We both know that's it not intended to be a compliment, and it has a negative conotation in light of the general frustration regarding the trade.

[fromthestretch]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

You're right. It wasn't Konerko's monster second half, or Jermaine Dye's 31 homers, or a 3.61 team ERA, or a career year for Dustin Hermanson, or the emergence of Bobby Jenks and Neal Cotts. Nope, it was Podsednik.

[RynoRules]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

you're kidding, right?

 

there are 162 games in a ML season, correct? if you watch the team play everyday and assume that you can learn everything you need to know, you're naive. if you watched the marlins play 162 games in 2004 and watched them play 162 games in 2005, without having any access to statistics, you wouldn't know the difference between pierre 04 and pierre 05.

 

the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is like 1 hit a week, how in the bloody heck can you see that by ignoring stats?

 

trusting only in outdated conventional wisdom is foolish. the world is not flat, nor is the earth the center of the universe, and put your torch and pitchfork down.

 

Your point is well taken, but I think the bolded portion is a bit much.

[Magnetic Curses]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

you're kidding, right?

 

there are 162 games in a ML season, correct? if you watch the team play everyday and assume that you can learn everything you need to know, you're naive. if you watched the marlins play 162 games in 2004 and watched them play 162 games in 2005, without having any access to statistics, you wouldn't know the difference between pierre 04 and pierre 05.

 

the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is like 1 hit a week, how in the bloody heck can you see that by ignoring stats?

 

trusting only in outdated conventional wisdom is foolish. the world is not flat, nor is the earth the center of the universe, and put your torch and pitchfork down.

 

Your point is well taken, but I think the bolded portion is a bit much.

 

maybe, but i think it fits. the paradigm is shifting, and many who value the old one don't like it one bit. the fact that statistical analysis is gaining more favor around the league should not be a turn-off to people who watch a lot of baseball, it should be an exciting new way to understand the game.

 

i often use analogy to illuminate my points, so the most apt analogy i can use is the resistance to the idea of the sun-centered solar system that galileo ran up against. now, no one has staged a mass burning of baseball abstracts or anything, but you get the point.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My guess, one of the deals is Todd Walker + Wellemeyer (or someone like him) to Seattle for Ibanez.

 

Other deals could include one for Huff, Drew, or Mench.

 

I've also wondered if the Cubs might have approached San Francisco about Alou.

[BigbadB]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

"Slappy" is derogatory and unfair, yet "one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect" isn't?

 

Okay then.

[CuseCubFan69]

My guess, one of the deals is Todd Walker + Wellemeyer (or someone like him) to Seattle for Ibanez.

 

Other deals could include one for Huff, Drew, or Mench.

 

I've also wondered if the Cubs might have approached San Francisco about Alou.

 

Wow Alou in right....you just scared the heck out of me.

[cubsfromMD]

I think that saying that Hill and Pie being untouchable is brilliant. If he can get more for Hill than what a one-pitch, once-around-the-league, too-old prospect is worth by saying he is untouchable, then God bless him.

By the way, I think that calling Pierre, "Slappy" is derrogatory and unfair. Watch him play. Was Podsednik's game in the newspaper what made the Sox get going last year or was it his game on the field. There are way too many people on this board with their heads all screwed up with arcane statisics. Try spending a little time watching a few game and get your head out of the Baseball Abstract.

 

you're kidding, right?

 

there are 162 games in a ML season, correct? if you watch the team play everyday and assume that you can learn everything you need to know, you're naive. if you watched the marlins play 162 games in 2004 and watched them play 162 games in 2005, without having any access to statistics, you wouldn't know the difference between pierre 04 and pierre 05.

 

the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is like 1 hit a week, how in the bloody heck can you see that by ignoring stats?

 

trusting only in outdated conventional wisdom is foolish. the world is not flat, nor is the earth the center of the universe, and put your torch and pitchfork down.

 

 

"Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? That's 25 hits...25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points...ok. There's 6 months in a season. That's about 25 weeks, that means if you get just one extra flair a week, just one. A gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes! You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you're in Yankee Stadium."

[SteveSarley]

Sorry! I was, indeed, unfair to Rich Hill.

That said, how can anybody use the fact that Podsednik plays left field and that the Sox had excellent pitching try to negate the fact that Juan Pierre is tremendous at the top of the order and can be a sparkplug for our entire offense?

As far as statistical analysis goes, many people here will use the numbers from the back of his baseball card to try to say that Todd Walker is the second coming of Rod Carew. Watch him play. His range is limited. He can't turn the double play. His hitting is not what I would call timely.

Statistical analysis needs to be tempered and adjusted through the activity of actually watching the players play the game on the field.

Statistics do lie.

Anyone who pulls out Patterson's stats from his 1-1/2 good years and tries to use that information to posit that a 2006 rebound is likely, is only fooling himself. Watch Patterson. He doesn't have a clue. It makes no difference what the old stats say. They are merely memories.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Sorry! I was, indeed, unfair to Rich Hill.

 

No, you were fair to Rich Hill. It's just that you were the pot calling the kettle black.

[SteveSarley]

Good call, Pedro!

[Nobody youd want to know]

. . . many people here will use the numbers from the back of his baseball card to try to say that Todd Walker is the second coming of Rod Carew. Watch him play. His range is limited. He can't turn the double play. His hitting is not what I would call timely.

 

Todd Walker with men on base, 2005: 311/350/451

 

While not Manny Ramirezian, that's pretty timely.

[Diffusion]

As far as statistical analysis goes, many people here will use the numbers from the back of his baseball card to try to say that Todd Walker is the second coming of Rod Carew. Watch him play. His range is limited. He can't turn the double play. His hitting is not what I would call timely.

 

We're well aware that Todd Walker isn't sensational defensively. But what he gives away in the field, he makes up and then some with his bat, which is not only well above average for a second baseman, but is also plenty timely...

 

Todd Walker Career Splits

None On, .287/.346/.443

Runners On, .295/.351/.438

 

When you then consider the fact that Walker is due to make just $2.5m next year, he is an absolute bargain. Also currently the best 2B option we have, comfortably, short of getting someone better than him, or getting more value for Walker he offers the team by trading him, there's really no good reason to move him. There's certainly no reason to actively shop him, or to erode his trade value by talking about second base next year as though he's already been dealt. That's why people are annoyed at the way the Cubs are treating Walker, not because he's the second coming of Rod Carew or anything stupid like that.

[UBlink]

I think what really hurts the Cubs in trades is that they don't have the proverbial 3rd starter on this team. They have two #1's, a possible 1 in Wood that is hurt and 3 #5's.

 

Although I don't think he has a lot of trade value with a big contract and NTC, but to say that Maddux is a 5th starter is a bit of a stretch. I looked at 3 different stats for last year to get a feel for where Maddux would fit on other staffs.

 

Using ERA, he ranked 61st overall among qualifying pitchers. He would have been the 3rd or better starter on 17 teams. He wouldn't even have made # 5 for the Cards, but he would have been the 3rd best for Atlanta, and #2 for the Yankees and Red Sox (of course the Yankees only had 2 qualifying pitchers!!). He would have been the staff ace for 5 teams.

 

Since we put so much emphasis on OBP for hitters around here, I also looked at OBA. There, he ranked 35th overall with a .308. (tied with new White Sox J. Vazquez). On only one team would he have been the 5th starter, that being your WS champs. He would have been 3rd or better on 25 teams.

 

And finally, on innings pitched, he ranked 13th overall. The only rate stats that were worse than ERA related to the long ball, but even there only 11 teams had 3 or more pitchers with a better HR/IP.

 

It's clear he would have been at least a #3 on over half the teams last year. I think that qualifies him as a legit #3 pitcher.