Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Without Petco to back him up, Peavy is not dominant.
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Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6? You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course). Dempster is coming off an unusually good year pitching-wise, Harden is coming off the same health-wise, and Peavy leaving the the Coors Field of right-handed pitching with a 3.80 career road ERA and a 4.28 for 2008. I don't think that rotation is as good as people expect. It's deep with above-average starters, but it seriously lacks dominance.
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Greene to Cards close
Hairyducked Idiot replied to mdwilla's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
3 wins from one position = slight upgrade? -
Good news, when you have the opportunity to acquire a pitcher of Peavy's caliber you do everything you can and that includes possibly trading your top prospect(s). For as much as I hate to give up Vitters this is a move that has to get done, especially with how the Cubs are in a win now mode and by the time Vitters would be up, sept. of 2010 at the earliest but most likely and realistically 2011 or 2012 we may not have as strong a team. What a rotation... Peavy Z Dempster Lilly Harden :yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/ Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?
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Which gets back to what I said earlier, which is that it's close to a wash, depending on which one you use. I don't want to get dragged into reestablishing the wheel and the math behind all of these formulas because someone prefers the "sure thing" of the homer.
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You did miss it, because you are discounting the double-value of the avoided out. It's a runner on base and it's not taking away an at-bat from a teammate. Every extra out Braun made is an at-bat he took out of the hands of a teammate. As I said I understand that. I'm saying 25 HRS more than compensates for 45 outs. I guarantee you the 45 batters that came to the plate after Giles walked did not hit 25 hrs nor did the next 45 nor did the next 45 all summed up. At some point an increased number of outs outweighs the additional 25 hrs; 45 isn't close to that number though. The batter after Giles walks is going get out, on average, 60% time (and I am being monumentally generous) Do the regression if you like and see what the expected production or even OBP is of the those extra (I would guess roughly 60) at bats would be. Then why do all the advanced statistical meausures disagree with you and say that Giles produced more offensive value?
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You did miss it, because you are discounting the double-value of the avoided out. It's a runner on base and it's not taking away an at-bat from a teammate. Every extra out Braun made is an at-bat he took out of the hands of a teammate.
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It's pretty close to a wash. You are missing an important stat. Probably the most important stat. Outs. Braun also made 49 more outs.
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Are we saying .001 OBP > .001 SLG or a player with a high (relative) OBP is better than a player with a high (relative) SLG? Both.
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Counting 2008 the Trib has owned the Cubs for 27 years and made it to the playoffs 6 times (1984, 1989, 1998, 2003, 2007, and 2008). If I'm doing the math correctly that's not even remotely close to "10% or less of the time." I was going to say that you have to win a game in the playoffs for the appearance to count, but they still squeak by even then.
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And draft picks. The Cubs have spent a ton of money on draft picks in recent years.
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It's also not the "Hall of Great," if you are going to go down that road.
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Grace holds up better than I would have guessed. I still don't like him.
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Blanco's Brother Murdered In Kidnapping
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Butterscup1679666578's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
5.0 -
Are you comparing teams in, say, similar divisions?
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You make it seem like getting rid of Marquis and a majority of his salary will be easy. Who is going to pay $9.875M for a back of the rotation starter next year? I'm assuming the the Cubs would pick up some, but I would think the team trading for him would have to pay him at least $7M next year. How much is a league-average starter worth for a one-year contract? Maybe not $7 million in this market, but it can't be that much less.
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On Fukudome, yes hindsight is 20/20. Tough luck. It's Hendry's job to have foresight and be judged by hindsight. On Soriano, this contract was widely panned from the beginning.
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(this post must be read in chant form) List for me the overpaid junk that's currently under contract with the Cubs, preventing the retention of Kerry Wood. I'll get you started: Jason Marquis. Most indications are that Hendry's trying to wiggle out of that one as we speak. Who else you got? Fukudome
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Week 13: Bears at Vikings, 7:15 on NBC
Hairyducked Idiot replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
Going for it was the right play. The most likely result was a 14-3 Bears lead. The least likely result was what happened. -
yep, it is concerning I'm way more concerned about the declining peripherals and injury potential than I am about the possibility of a playoff collapse. His home/road splits don't make me dance with joy.
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I think the analysis has to go a little deeper than "two straight division titles? Yes or no." He's won two straight division titles (one of which was won with an actually good team) by throwing heavily backloaded contracts at anything that moved and leaving us with little in the farm system. I question whether the future looks all that bright. He'd be a horrible GM if he had done all that without the division titles, but I'm not sure doing it with them makes him a good one.
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This all works if you ignore the two draft picks on the table, and the cost we are paying for Gregg (and that he probably wouldn't have gotten $10 million in arbitration). I'm not ignoring the picks. I simply realize that the upside of the picks is overshadowed by the downside of leaving other more pressing needs unaddressed because you had no money left after Wood accepted arb. There are quite a few ways to go in the unlikely event Wood accepts arbitration. And as I just pointed out above, Hendry's trying his darndest to go all of those ways already. Then how did he get himself into such a bad situation? Tapped out before the offseason even started? It seems unlikely, but if it's true, then it's even more damning, because I don't recall a sudden payroll decrease or anything like that.
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If Hendry doesn't have a contingency plan to come up with $5 million in an unlikely scenario at this point in the offseason, he is much worse at his job than almost anyone on here suspects. that is ridiculous, stop being so emotional i hope kerry wood signs a four-year deal with the cardinals and strikes out the side against the cubs for the save in the seventh game of the nlcs four consecutive years, just so i can see jim hendry cry
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You just made defense cry.
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If Hendry doesn't have a contingency plan to come up with $5 million in an unlikely scenario at this point in the offseason, he is much worse at his job than almost anyone on here suspects.