Reasonable projection: Dempster reverts at least halfway back between 2008 and previous norms Harden pitches his career average for innings pitched Peavy pitches his career road average Zambrano and Lilly have years very similar to their last two. Why is it reasonable to predict that Peavy is going to pitch to his career road average. Isn't there are small advantage to pitching at home that shows up in the splits (assuming you don't play in Coors or Chase Field or something) About half a run. So take Peavy's career road ERA, subtract half a point, and you get 3.30, almost exactly his statistical projects posted earlier. Intersting.