Without a doubt. I don't think it's an either/or though. Iowa needs to be 9-9 to have a chance and I think they would need at least 1, maybe 2 in Chicago in that case. At 10-8 they should be in but with the poor RPI they probably need to avoid a bad loss in the opener. 10-8 would mean winning at PSU and Nebraska with home wins over Purdue, Nebraska, Minnesota and Illinois and a loss at IU. Doable but 9-9 is more likely. The RPI is so dumb. It's ridiculous that they don't use some kind of composite of RPI, Pomeroy, Sagarin, Massey, BPI or whatever if they really want to stick with the RPI. It's Iowa's own fault their RPI is that bad but it's almost entirely due to playing teams in the low 200's-300's rather than low 100's-high 200's.