ryanrc

actually, they are playing a bit like I suggested. Happ just swung for the fences... really not so far off from my suggestion so far....

This is a great series for players to work on their weak points. Have all the guys like Hoerner, Turner, and Happ swinging for the FENCES as often as possible. Have Suzuki, PCA, and Swanson aiming to draw walks or take singles. Mix it up. As far as pitching, I hope we give Chris Flexen a spot start. Let him prove he can take Ben Brown's rotation spot for awhile. Also, let Ben Keller get a nice long look, too. I hate it when GMS are boring and fail to use these opportunities to test things out.

Hello Cubs World, I dragged my feet on this one because the starting rotation is, like most other teams, a work in progress with injury issues.... that's just pitching in modern baseball. But its time to get to the point: how have they done, and what can we do about it? (Note: I'm also going to do an analysis soon of all the offseason misses - the guys the fans and media wanted us to pursue, and those we didn't, and where we'd be if we had made better choices). How They've Done, Through Game 53 Sigh. I wish I had better news to report, but the Cubs starters have come up short of expectations, as a group. However, like most teams, we can blame injuries. (OUT) Justin Steele W L ERA G IP SO WHIP Career Regular Season 32 22 3.30 102 506.2 517 1.21 No bother looking at 2025 stats: sample size was too small this year. Losing our #1 guy was a gut punch and not expected. At least he's under control for a couple more seasons. Steele will be more affordable in 2026, too, precisely because of this injury. He's got a strong profile to maintain a flat 3.0 ERA moving forward. That's the silver lining on the cloud. He was off to a slow start, which indicated that his injury was a multi-step process of inflammation turning into a blown arm. However, because the injury was in April, he has a great shot at being ready to go around the All-Star Break; therefore, he could still garner 15 impact starts next year. These days, it seems every big roster has at least 1, if not 2 or 3, guys who are on the "mid-season pitching calendar" now, and that has many roster benefits. For example, always having Clayton Kershaw as a back-pocket refreshing tool midseason has helped the Dodgers quite a bit. #1 Shota Imanaga W L ERA G IP SO WHIP 2025 Regular Season 3 2 2.82 8 44.2 34 1.10 Career Regular Season 18 5 2.89 37 218.0 208 1.04 He was showing us ace stuff when he went down. He's still the same guy and will come back to serve as our ace very soon. He started throwing again. Since he wasn't out long, and since it was a non-throwing injury, it shouldn't take long for him to get to full velocity and pitch count. I expect him to make only 2 rehab starts before returning. So let's say he'll be back around game 67-70 ish... best case scenario, he starts against the Phillies June 10th. This will give him the potential of 19 more starts this season. not too shabby, and definitely "enough" to make a big difference. Verdict: He'll be back, same as 2024, and be among the top 10 starters in the National League. He'll win most of his games, much like last year. Imanaga will fall short of the innings count he'll need to be in contention for Cy Young (no big deal). He'll likely have his best season NEXT year.... #2 Matthew Boyd W L ERA G IP SO WHIP 2025 4 2 3.42 10 55.1 56 1.32 Career Regular Season 50 71 4.76 192 963.2 947 1.31 Ironically, everyone expected him to get hurt, but he's been very healthy. Fans tend to forget that guys are often healthier AFTER they repair their arms. Until recently, he was providing us sub-3 ERA stuff, but he had a mere 2 games where he got roughed up a bit. 3 more sharp starts and he could be back to a 3 ERA. Moyd has been showing us the best version of himself - exactly like the guy he was last year. His affordable contract makes Hoyer/Hottovy look smart. Verdict: He's showing us all we need to see out of a #3. Me and everyone else still expects the Cubs to find a #2 Right hander that can step over him in the rotation and fill Justin Steele's shoes for awhile. I expect him to finish strong, with an ERA in the 2.9-3.3 range. He'll have a winning season. #3 Colin Rea W L ERA G IP SO WHIP 2025 3 1 3.28 11 46.2 40 1.29 Career Regular Season 29 21 4.45 105 493.1 406 1.28 Ok, folks, I was very high on the Rea signing this offseason, but he's been better than I expected. He's been similar to Javier Assad, but with more stuff and fewer walks. Although his style of pitching doesn't impress most analytical systems, and he gets under-appreciated by WAR measurements, Colin is getting the job done. He gets quality starts, wins, low ERA, and is looking healthy and reliable. His ERA only recently sagged a bit, but I think 3.2-3.5 ERA is still the "right target area" for Rea this season. He's playing his career best ball, but he's had a 3 year upward trajectory. Luckily, there's a $6 million player option on him for next year, although I doubt he exercises it. He's playing more like a $15 million pitcher (Boyd). I hope we can negotiate a contract extension, because he's proven his value. At his age (34), he only has ONE chance to make big money, which is NOW. My best guess is he would accept a 3 year, 35 million extension (2026-2028), and that would work nicely for both sides. His style of pitching doesn't rely on power, so he could lose 1 MPH on his fastball and not suffer much. However, he can't expect a higher annual value unless it is a shorter deal. Verdict: Rea can temporarily be the 3rd guy up, but I'd be much happier if he was our long term #4. #4 Cade Horton W L ERA G IP SO WHIP 2025 Regular Season 2 0 4.40 3 14.1 10 1.40 Career Regular Season 2 0 4.40 3 14.1 10 1.40 The good news is that Cade Horton is flashing brilliance and showing us his plus pitches. His xERA is 3.39 (across two games), and that feels a bit low compared to his potential. He doesn't walk batters, he generates high chase rates, and he's got plus velocity, with a fastball that hovers around 95-98. He's got a full arsenal of good pitches.The bad news is that he's a 23 year old rookie who got rushed to the majors a bit earlier than expected. Sure, he got roughed up in his first start, but that doesn't concern me one bit. unlike Ben Brown, Horton has a sufficiently complex game plan, which is becoming necessary for the best results in the majors. Is this the guy to fill Steele's Shoes? Verdict: Yeah, this is our new #2 starter for next season. Give him a few more games to work out the major league level of competition, then watch him gradually soar. He's got what it takes to produce a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP in the 1 to 1.1 range. Do NOT demote him unless he NEEDS to be demoted. #5 Jameson Taillon W L ERA G GS IP SO WHIP 2025 Regular Season 3 3 3.92 11 11 59.2 47 1.04 Career Regular Season 74 56 3.89 212 211 1167.0 1022 1.20 Look, he's "good enough", but he's not one of the top 3 post-season arms. You'd only start him if you were clearly ahead in the series and expecting to win on bats- like a game 5 situation where you are 3-1 ahead of the opponent. It is a bit funny listing Taillon as the #5 starter, and Horton as #4, because its still playing the opposite way so far, but that's how I feel currently. This is not to say Taillon sucks. not at all. He's doing his usual "sneaky good" thing. He's got a Whip near 1 flat. After today's game versus Colorado at Wrigley, I expect a 3.9 ERA. the fact of the matter is he just doesn't shut teams out- you almost always expect 2 or 3 runs on the board. For a high octane offense like ours, this is usually fine and dandy. However, Cade Horton is comparatively showing more potential for the occasional 0 and 1 run games. Taillon is a winner, though, and he can be expected to produce a better than .500 season for us, yet again. I just wish he would show us LAST YEARS' stuff instead of 2023-type stuff like he has so far this season. Taillon is a guy I wish we could trade, but I don't know what we would get back for him worth trading .... so I think he stays. Next Up (Swing? Trade?): Javier Assad W L ERA G GS IP SO WHIP Career Regular Season 14 11 3.40 70 47 294.0 248 1.34 Assad has long frustrated statistically- he's pulled off much better results than his fundamentals imply. Basically, what this means is he's elite at forcing outs on balls in play rather than via strikeout, as well as being elite in stranding runners on base, especially runners who walked. Over the past two seasons, he's led the league in starting pitchers who outperform their xERA and FIP stats. Although nobody ever expects that sort of thing to continue long term, he could definitely remain ABOVE AVERAGE in these stats. Assad will be back in action just before the All-Star Break, although I'd hate to rely on him, given the circumstances. Frankly, he's not making a case for helping the team more than Cade Horton; however, he gives us hope of beating Ben Brown's results. I project him to be a low- 4's ERA type of performer in 2025. If he does seize the 5th rotation spot, Assad could be in line for about 16 starts in 2025. However, me and the entire fan base would rather see Assad traded as part of a package for a difference making arm. He's good trade material, given his consistently good performances and that he still has 3 more years of team control. Verdict: TRADE ASSAD and land somebody that scares opponents. He, with a pair of prospects, would land an affordable elite arm on a rental deal; or, a pricier starter with 2-3 years of team control. #6 Ben Brown W L ERA G GS IP SO WHIP 2025 3 3 6.39 11 10 50.2 62 1.60 Career Regular Season 4 6 4.92 26 18 106.0 126 1.33 Sigh. Despite LEADING THE TEAM IN PITCHING WAR, Ben Brown has been exactly the disappointment we all expected. It all comes down to his 2-pitch arsenal, which simply doesn't play 80-100 pitches in the majors. Yes, his weird, lame changeup has some function, but only about 2-3 pitches a game, and only against changeup-vulnerable, mediocre batters. At a bare minimum, he must add at least 1 pitch he throws 15-20% of the time. I am perplexed he hasn't figured out a decent cutter by now- it need not be a GREAT cutter, only good enough to set up the heater by tunneling precisely like it but veering off course a few important inches to miss barrels. For a dominant 4-seam pitcher, it should be a rather easy task to slightly change his grip to get funky motion. Anyhow, the league has him figured out. Furthermore, he could improve his changeup with a grip change, too - that would make it viable for 5-10% use. Such a 4 pitch arsenal would make him a real starter. Verdict: BACK TO AAA. Learn a cutter, improve the changeup. Work out the kinks. come back when you're ready. Ben Brown can return triumphant next year, and still be under team control for several more. He's under team control through 2029, so really no big loss if he stays in AAA this year. SWING Chris Flexen W L ERA G GS IP SO WHIP 2025 Regular Season 2 0 0.00 6 0 10.1 6 0.87 Career Regular Season 32 49 4.87 159 110 658.0 472 1.48 Here's a guy that could be the ACE for the Colorado Rockies this season. (Haha- that's a savage burn!) Chris has been around quite a bit. He showed great promise with Seattle in 2021 and 2022, but fell off badly. He had a brief stint with the Rockies, followed by the White Sox. In both of those showings, Flexen really looked like a bottom dweller's junk pitcher. He lacks velocity- he's been throwing fastballs around 91. on the other hand, his mix of slurve/changeup/cutter pitches has played well recently. He's tightened up his command. Flexen is really playing his best ball this year, and I think he could see spot starts going forward. His xERA has been 3.41. Nobody can square him up or barrel his weird pitches. Chris's Baseball Savant graph is really worth a look-see (Check out Cade Horton while you're over there). since he added a cutter/sweeper (it runs extremely horizontally, yet at a brisk 87-89 MPH velocity), he's been mystifying batters. Verdict: This is our next-guy-up. Flexen should take Ben's spot until Imanaga returns. I'd rather take a guy who reliably pitches to weak contact right now than a high strikeout guy (Brown) who serves up multiple homers a game. With his new cutter-sweeper, he's a real tough egg to crack. HONORABLE MENTIONS Three other guys are worth noting as potential swing starters: Brad Keller, Keegan Thompson, and Jordan Wicks. Brad Keller Brad has shown us he's a highly capable bullpen piece. He's throwing 97, he's fooling hitters, and sustaining an impressive 5 pitch mix. Again, worth a look on Baseball Savant. He's made a case for being a starter in 2026. However, in the short run, he's too valuable as a bullpen piece for the Cubs- he's been one of the only reliable arms. I still want to see him used more in multi-inning appearances. There's been several games where I said aloud :"DONT TAKE HIM OUT! leave him in! he's dominating!" ....and then watched the next guy up blow it. Verdict: Please keep him in the bullpen ....but use him in multi-inning early appearances to really lock down a game. It'll be hard to watch him walk, but I don't see how we afford him long term (unless we let Colin Rea walk). He's likely to be signed to a multi-inning starting role elsewhere, and good for him! So let's burn him hard and bright while we can. Keegan Thompson Look, this guy has had a really bad luck run. a few years ago, he looked like he had a regular rotation spot for us. Then the injuries arrived. Ever since, he hasn't been quite the same. Or has he? Down in AAA this year, he's looked mighty, mighty good. Keegan has a 4 pitch mix (with a rare, firm changeup thrown in) that looks eerily similar to what I expect Ben Brown to develop for himself. The main difference is the velocity. Frankly, Brown should be taking notes from Thompson, but outperforming him with a similar pitch mix. I really think Thompson deserves to be starting SOMEHWERE For SOMEONE, but I don't see how he breaks our starting 5. He also lacks options, so his best chance to stick in the majors is as a full-time bottom rotation starter on a weaker club. Verdict: Trade him at the All-Star Break... perhaps as part of a package for a new backend bullpen arm. He's done a fine job rehabbing in AAA this year, and could immediately be a swing starter, or even #5, for a needy team with less depth than we have, like the Marlins. He's got more upside than a bullpen piece, and there's no room on our 26-man for yet another guy without options- unless we were to suddenly lose multiple guys (like, both Keller and Palencia going down). Jordan Wicks Here's a frustrating, frustrating pitcher. He looks great in small samples. He's got a nice 4-pitch mix with a sweeper, a good 4-seamer, a sinker, and great changeup. Also, he can bring back a curveball if that ever becomes useful again. And yet, Wicks routinely looks below average in the majors. What gives? For whatever reason, his secondary pitches have been absolute garbage at that level - major league batters are destroying both his sweeper and sinker whenever they are thrown in the strike zone. I have a feeling that he's telegraphing these pitches with his body language. Thus, he's mostly been relying on only two pitches- his 4-seamer and changeup- to get outs. He's under team control for many years to come, so again, there's no rush here. Verdict: He'll get another chance at the majors in 2026. Wicks must figure out why his sweeper - his intended 3rd best pitch - isn't playing well. Cracking that code is absolutely key to his success. He can use the sinker, and perhaps curve, only a few times a game just to force weak contact. Conclusion: The Best Path Forward I'm perfectly happy with Imanaga, Boyd, Rea, and Taillon, with Horton being a swing guy for this rookie run alongside Flexen. The 5th spot is really just being held for a mystery player yet to be named. Although we could "get by" with Assad, Horton, or Flexen, this is not that kind of year. This is a year to contend, and to make that happen will require a fresh starter, not to mention at least 1 elite arm to replace Hodge as the closer (Hodge has options -he can go down and come back up when the roster expands). I am hoping our real closer is David Robertson, actually- he's been waiting to sign until he knows who is contending. As far as who we trade for.... well, let's just say it won't be Sandy Alcantara, but beyond that, many strange things could happen. It is really hard to guess, but here's a few guys I would like to see in Cubbie Blue..... 1) Merrill Kelly 36, Diamondbacks. ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.02, FA 2026 Kelly is about the lowest rank guy worth renting. The D-Backs are basically out of it already, given how tough their division is, and given their recent 3-game disaster against the Cardinals. All they need is a bad run of things over the next 20 games, and they're mathematically eliminated from contention. ITS A HELLISH DIVISION. They won't give up Gallen or Burnes, of course, but Merrill is really expendable. He's a firm step up from Assad in fundamentals, and provides more confidence for the postseason. He'd only cost a (prorated half of) $6 million, and he's having a very solid year. His 6 pitch mix fits well within the Cubs strategy, and yet his precise mix is not imitated by any other Cubs starter. It would probably be Assad plus an early-stage prospect, in exchange for Merrill plus an early-stage pitching prospect. Kelly would slot in as the #3 in status, just a hair below Boyd. 2) Chris Bassitt 36, Blue Jays, ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.32, FA 2026 Here's a pricier option, at half of a $22 million dollar contract. The Jays are not contender this year, and they could really benefit from dumping his salary. Still, he could come fairly cheap because that price tag, and may be a straight 1-for-1 swap with a long-term starting arm like Assad. Throw in Keegan Thompson, perhaps, as an insurance policy. Bassitt has "winner" stuff and despite his elevated WHIP this year, would immediately become the clear new #2 guy in the rotation. Or, Vidal Brujan is available if they want him. 3) Tyler Mahle, 30 Rangers, ERA 1.80, WHIP 1.03, FA 2026 Guess What? I'm continuing my theme of decent teams falling short of contention in 2025. The Rangers have lots of money tied up in Eovaldi and de Grom. They won't be able to bring back Mahle next year. He's costing them $11 million, but half a year of Mahle would be a nice addition for us. The rangers aren't thar far away from being mathematically eliminated, and their only hope is to trade back in pitching to trade up in hitting. Mahle is the one guy they can send out, and Assad is worthy enough to stabilize the back of the Rangers rotation for the future. Mahle would be a clear Cubs #2 and even contend for the ACE role!!!! If they continue to suck royally at the plate, they will need to make major changes quickly. They are suffering at 2nd base (Semien), right field (Garcia), and designated hitter (Pederson) - all are expensive, big name players who should be doing better. Of all the "barely contending" teams, driven by pitching dominance, there's none out there who more desperately need ready-to-go hitters. Mahle could easily command $25+ million going forwards, and would be a rental only. Consider this possibility: we have GREG ALLEN stashed in AAA. He's hitting close to .900 OPS down there and fielding well. We also have Kevin Alcantara to trade... The Rangers could land Allen, Alcantara, Vidal Brujan, and Assad in exchange for Mahle and some reasonable replacement prospect.... This gives them options to play 2nd and challenge Semien for short term playing time (Brujan), and a pair of outfielders to fight for time at Center and Right field - one immediately this year in Allen, and one next year in Alcantara. We seriously don't need Brujan on this roster anymore- we can just promote an outfielder and let Berti handle the infield utility role. Alcantara can attempt to help at DH as well. Assad provides long term financial relief in the starting rotation so they can spend that money on another hitter next year. However, to make all that work, the Cubs would need to return at least 1 serious prospect for a position of need- My best guess would be another bullpen lefty project. Verdict: Part with our #4 prospect Alcantara, and receive their #12 prospect Kohl Drake, who is a very SPICY lefty option for 2026 and beyond. Give up Allen, Brujan, and Assad. And Some Cash. Take Mahle. Then, sign David Robertson to close, if he's ready. This would be the approximate squad, if we could land it for the World Series in July.... POST-SEASON STARTERS Imanaga L Mahle Boyd L Game 4 options for post-season: Rea Taillon Closer/8th inning Setup (expanded roster): Robertson (CL 1- save situations) Pressly (CL 2 - non-save situations) Theibar L Brasier Palencia Mid/long relief (expanded roster, in no particular order): Hodge Horton Flexen Keller Pomerantz L

His changeup hasn't been effective because it really doesnt MOVE, its small movement is nearly indistinguishable from his 4 seamer, and it mostly lands for obvious balls. It is only a "surprise" pitch, and frankly he could do better lobbing an eephus twice a game than his lousy changeup. I still think its obvious that he should learn a cutter. Even a "'mild" cutter, with below average stuff and placement, would be just enough to induce more soft contact and reduce home runs. throw it every third fastball (basically 20 percent of the time), and watch his ERA firm up and his soft contact rate dramatically rise. It would make his curve and fastball both play better to have a pitch right between his two primary ones. I am baffled as to why he doesn't already have a 90 MPH cutter- it is not a difficult pitch for a 4 seam guy to learn.

Ben Brown is frustrating... I have been in the chorus that says "find your third pitch, ASAP!" He would have been sent down by now, if it weren't for Imanaga's injury. Some say Brown NEEDS a slider or sweeper, but I think a cut fastball variation would add JUST ENOUGH to make him stick as a starter. Every 3rd fast ball should break funny, and that would bail him out of jams, as hitter have to guess if it moves 3 inches the wrong way or not. It would lower his HR rate and raise his fly ball and foul rate. Let Chris Flexen take the next start, and Brown should move to the pen. I get it, Flexen throws a 90-91 fastball, and that's a bummer. But his junk is REALLY playing well. He's got 4 pitches in a unique combination of motion. If Flexen has a strong showing, let him stay as #5 until Imanaga returns... then keep Flexen around as long relief and send Brown to AAA to work on his third offering. Brown has the winning stuff if he could FOOL people. Split that fastball into two different pitches. And throw his below average changeup just a couple times a game for sheer surprise value to freeze people when ahead in the count.

Hello Cubs World, let's skip right to it shall we? The Stats keep fluctuating. Cubs keep putting up monster numbers of runs, efficiently. Their bullpen keeps cracking. But lets go head and finish a quick analysis to see the likelihood of sustained success for each player. General stats worth discussing (fundamentals that drive beyond WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS): I provided Fangraphs rankings, minimum 90 plate appearances, for each players' xwOBA, Home Runs, and Defensive WAR contributions. one * Denotes a "difference maker" result in WRC+, and two ** denotes an all-star or elite result. Same for DefRank. PCA, Hoerner, Swanson, Amaya, are all potential defensive all stars. Kelly and Happ are potential defensive difference makers. Using WRC+ as the primary indicator of hitting performance, Hoerner is the ONLY starter on the list who ISNT at least a difference maker; and, if you add in his high contact rate and baserunning, he's still quite valuable. Kelly, PCA, Tucker, Amaya, and Busch are all hitting in the All-Star range; however, Kelly, Tucker, and Busch are having down years defensively so far. Putting these two stats together, the clear All-Stars are PCA, Tucker, and Swanson, and the borderline All-Stars are Kelly and Amaya -however, as others have noted, the catcher position having a renaissance this year, and many teams have freakishly good results from their catchers, too. Neither Kelly nor Amaya is likely to hold off the tough competition. We can only rely on the bias of popular voting favoring the big market players to have a shot at catcher. WRC+ xwOBA xwRANK HR HRRANK DefRank Kelly 183** .387** #34 8 #43 #142* PCA 143** .343* #99 12 #8 #5** Tucker 142** .405** #18 11 #17 #223 Amaya 134* .317 #175 4 #139 #54** Busch 132* .365* #55 7 #62 #241 Suzuki 120* .343* #100 12 #13 #217 Swanson 117* .364* #56 10 #17 #66** Happ 115* .366* #52 3 #155* Hoerner 99 .310 #194 0 #40** 1) Carson Kelly WRC+ 183 (#4 in MLB). - He's not gonna crater, guys STOCK FALLING Every time someone predicts Kelly to collapse, he puts up a multi-hit performance and draws walks supreme. He has had over 110 plate appearances and his fundamentals still look sharp. His xwOBA rank supports hish WRC+ : He's still hitting like the #34 guy in the Statcast fundamentals like exit velocity, exit angle, and hard hit rate. His 43rd home run rank is not statistically weird- it is exactly on pace. His defensive rank is a bit lower than last year, and so he has likely WAR support from this stat as the season wears on. We thought he was a GLOVE FIRST Catcher, lol. Verdict: Kelly will keep being a menace, although more in line with Busch, Suzuki, and Happ as the season goes on. They have similar xwOBA stats and all should end up with similar WRC+ results. Although some have pointed out Kelly fell off a cliff in the last 10 games, with no homers and few hits, I don't fully agree it is a major regression. With these fundamentals, I project Kelly to finish the season with a WRC+ around 135, close to 20 home runs, with only about 350 plate appearances. 2) PCA WRC+ 143 (#37 in MLB). He's due for a regression unless he learns to TAKE A DAMNED WALK. STOCK FALLING (POOR WALK RATE UNSUSTAINABLE) It is obvious that something is off here - PCA cannot keep chasing with the success rate that he's been having. Its unsustainable to have a bottom percentile chase rate and great results - hence his .343 xwOBA. His glove is obviously elite, and that keeps him in the hunt for a 10 WAR season. However, he is unlikely to sustain 143 WRC+, and even with some positive tweaks to his game, he'll regress to the same 130-135 range as most his top teammates are facing. Verdict: he surprised me and other with his elite home run results, but he can sustain a 35 HR pace. What he can't sustain is his batting average, and his on base percentage is too low for him to be a true stolen base threat for the leaderboards. I now predict he'll swipe 45-50 bags. 3) Kyle Tucker +142 (#39 in MLB). He's due for a DEFENSIVE and OFFENSIVE surge. STOCK RISING (BATTING AVERAGE) Tucker has been keeping pace with PCA in stolen bases for one reason: putting him to shame with an elite walk rate. He's been below projections at defense, so a positive glove correction will likely improve his chances for a 7 WAR season. The best news is that his xwOBA still supports an elite hitting outcome - he really should be hitting close to 1.0 OPS. Verdict: Tucker's gonna keep getting hot again. He's on pace for a career year with his first 40 HR and 40 SB results; however, he needs to bring back his batting average to around .300 to sustain a WRC+ of 140 or higher. I think he will. 4) Miguel Amaya +134. This is the REAL Amaya.... but on a small hot streak. STOCK FALLING (BATTING AVERAGE) Cubs fans have been waiting for him to blossom into the start that the management claims he should be. Well, here we are- its happening. He's playing like a top defender and he's among the top 10 hitters at his position currently. This is not fully sustainable, however. His xwOBA predicts a regression, and I think we all expect that he will cool off somewhat. But not drastically. Verdict: I think a WRC+ of 115ish feels right for him in the long term. And that's all we need him to do. He has the same walk problem as PCA, but we really don't care, given that he's already somewhat outperforming expectations. 5) Michael Busch +132. This is the REAL Michael Busch. Except the glove... STOCK STEADY Busch is almost exactly performing as I expected, and as his Statcast results support this. however, I expected 9 home runs- he's a bit off pace to reach the predicted 30 HR this season, but I think he would be there if he never sat for Justin Turner. As far as glove, he's middling, but he should improve. Verdict: A 130 WRC+ is sustainable, and with defensive progress he'll be a second-tier starter at first base, but not All-Star. 6) Seiya Suzuki +120. Nah man, he's slumping. He'll be hot very very soon. STOCK RISING (BATTING AVERAGE) Suzuki has a reverse set of fundamentals of Busch, resulting in higher slugging but low on base percentage. He has been as aggressive as PCA and Swanson this year, and I'm not sure it is the right overall strategy. His wxOBA is too low-bringing up his batting average would fix this. He needs to strike out less and land more base hits to catch Kyle Tucker. On the other hand, he's a league leader in RBIs, and if we were to move Suzuki back to 4th in the order (reversed with Busch), I'd be happier. Verdict: 35 HR, 120 RBI seems likely. Let him continue aim for RBIs and power, but move him to the 4 hole for maximum effect, and focus on a higher batting average. 7) Dansby Swanson. +117. Purrrrrfect. Keep doing this. STOCK RISING (DEFENSE) I was worried early in the season, but he clearly fixed his fundamentals. He's striking out at a more normal rate now, and even walking a bit more. This could be a career year if he can sustain a higher walk rate and otherwise hold steady. His defense is coming back into shape, and he's making big plays. Verdict: He's on pace for 30 HRs, 90 RBS, 20 SBS, and a WRC+ of at least 120. That's excellent news. 8 ) Ian Happ. +115. I need just a BIT MORE POWER, Captain..... STOCK RISING (POWER) Ian is doing a solid job focusing on OBP, as the leadoff guy. He's doing a good job playing a role late in games. He just started cold. The xwOBA tells us he's underperforming and has faced bad luck - particularly, he should have a couple more homers that were a bit shy. Given his history, though, we can expect him to have a strong second half and more power will show up. He's also been a non-factor in base stealing, although he historically puts up about 14 SB. Verdict: although a WRC+ 130 is within reach, I don't expect it. But he''ll find his way back to a .800 OPS and 18 HRs on the season. And, he'll continue to make a case to stay at the leadoff hitter, with his reliably high OBP and amazing plate discipline. 9) Nico Hoerner +99... I mean, he's Nico Hoerner, but he could use a few XBHs.... STOCK STEADY This guy has been leading the majors in glove from the 2B position - and that's his usual strength. He's also looking like he'll steal 40 bases if he gets more situational o opportunities. It doesn't help that he's hitting 8th, so let's be conservative and say 35 bases is likely. Also, he's usually about a 7 HR/year player, but he has zero. So that's at least 2 missing dingers this year. Putting just those HRs back on his numbers and he'd have about a +103 projection for the season. Verdict: He's close to doing exactly what we expect him to do every year- be an average hitter with high contact, low power, and great running. He's worth about 20 million a year, and 15 of that is glove, but we pay him 11. CONCLUSION: Although this was a high-level analysis, its good enough for a free blog, innit? The major theme here is that wxOBA is a highly useful statistic for predicting long term trajectories. when compared against WRC+, which adjusts Runs Created for overall ballpark conditions, it does a great job of telling us who's got the profile to keep causing problems for opposing teams. For every riser on the Cubs, there's a faller, but not necessarily in the same amount or same statistical area. Overall we can expect PCA, Amaya, and Kelly to get slightly worse at the plate, but not dramatically so; and, we can expect Tucker, Happ and Suzuki to get noticeably better soon than they have been for May. I would say the fallers are taking smaller steps than the risers from now until All-Star Break; however, injuries are the ever-resent x-factor that throws ANY prediction off. Let's hope the Cubbies stay healthy. Also, I would seriously reconsider the batting order. I have mostly agreed with the approach this year, however the stats are starting to reveal a few problems. First, Suzuki and Busch are "at least" backwards. Suzuki is a classic #4 hitter, swinging for the fences, and we could demote Busch to make room for Carson Kelly's extremely high walk rate and OBP. I get that we try to separate the lefties throughout the order, but sometimes this is simply working against the stats. Consider this option VS right handed starters, for better statistical results: VS RHP REASONING FOR THIS SPOT 1 Happ S Second best hitter in terms of plate discipline 2 Tucker L BEST xwOBA and sustainable WRC+ 3 Kelly/Amaya R HOT "SHORT TERM" OBP, SLG, OPS 4 Suzuki R Highest RBI rate, but high KOs 5 Busch L All around but slow- mid-high OBP, SLG 6 Swanson R Second Cleanup - Like a Baby Suzuki 7 PCA L "SECOND TUCKER" - low xwOBA, does it all well 8 Shaw R balanced hitter but raw - slug or rally Swanson/PCA! 9 Hoerner R highest contact, best for extending PCA-driven rallies

Hello Cubs World, I've been thoroughly enjoying the North Side Baseball articles. As usual, they provide the best information NOT behind a paywall. Lucky fans. Seriously, everyone should try to promote the site and expand the readership. And I encourage site donors to push for more site marketing somehow! Thanks. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. (For you kids younger than 40, this was a thing that was said when a radio or tv channel was interrupted by an emergency technical issue). Last article, I gloated about how close to accurate my team-level predictions where in the off-season for team WAR and team performance rankings. Yay me. Woo. Ok ok. In this blog piece, I'll do a player-by-player analysis of the top 9 position players, at game 46 - after putting up 20 runs in the last 2 days against the White Sox, some guys are getting boosts. Those in a slump recently are HIGHLY likely to rebound in the next 30 days. so, we are at a point of "extreme oscillation" around a converging trend for each player. Rather than just assume everyone will continue today's percentages forever, I'll double down on some longer-term views about player capabilities. I will still avoid any prediction updates about Justin Turner, Vidal Brujan, Moises Ballesteros, Jon Berti, or any other call-up players. It is kinda pointless with such small data. I see nothing to "firm up" my predictions about the fate of "43rd" base- I still see Jon Berti as the main player there until Shaw returns, and likely to hold down his utility position even after Shaw returns. Thus, I expect the bench to become Brujan, Berti, and "XXX" mystery slugger to replace Turner, with Shaw manning 3d sometime soon (but hopefully not rushed). I haven a much higher value on Berti than most do- and I'm sticking to that argument. The entire bench has been what you expect from any bench - a roulette of "meh", with some lucky and unlucky moments.. Indeed, in general I think you should only make predictions about the starters during the first half of the season, because the bench WAR contributions are too volatile, close to zero, and replaceable ***************** CUBS WAR LEADERS Note that team rank here doesn't include pitchers - but Brown is currently above Hoerner and Boyd above Happ Note that Fangraphs rank DOES include pitchers! The following WAR projections (in parentheses) assume that players "split the difference" between their current performance and their historical performance. In some cases, this has little effect on player rankings, but in other cases it's noticeably a boost. TEAM RANK NAME WAR(Projection) Fangraphs Rank (Projection) 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 3 (10) #2 (#4) Superstar 2 Kyle Tucker 2 (7.4) #15 (#15) Superstar 3 Dansby Swanson 1.5 (5.5) #40 (#35) All-Star 4 Carson Kelly 1.3 (3.9) #67 (#75) All-Star 5 Nico Hoerner 1 (3.8) #126 (#80) All-Star 6 Michael Busch .8 (3) #174 (#125) Difference maker 7 Ian Happ .7 (3.3) #187 (#105) Difference maker 8 Miguel Amaya .7 (3) #202 (#130) Difference maker 9 Seiya Suzuki .6 (3.2) #247 (#110) Difference maker WAR Rankings- What they Mean There are (30X26) = 780 26-man roster players in MLB, and 1200+ total players see the field every year. 0-30 Superstar (even non-fans may have heard of these people) 31-80 All-Star quality (household names) 81-200- Difference Makers (household names on roster of one's home market) 201-300 Solid Starter (expected #3 rotation pitching range for WAR). 301-450 Average Position Player - Jobs are safe short-term, hard to replace cheaply. Setup pitchers. 451-600 Low Leverage - not adequate for starters, but decent results for mid-relief or utility players. 601+ Replacement range - job is at high risk. 781+ On warning: Must improve promptly to stay in Majors Historical Trends in WAR Some years, the league is flatter in WAR, with few high-tailed performers over 6. In other years, there's an elite cluster of top WAR players in the 8-11 range. 2025 looks like a year where several players are racing for 10 WAR status: Aaron Judge, PCA, Bobby Witt, Sohei Otahni, and Fernando Tatis are all pushing for MEMORABLE performances. Anything over 10 is rare in baseball history- that's Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth level action. And yet here we are with 5 players pushing for 10. Cubs Summary: Locked and Loaded! Every 2025 Cubs position starter EXCEPT 3B is projected as a plus contributor: A superstar (2), all-star (3), or difference maker (4). In recent years, one of the best overall hitting lineups was the 2023 Atlanta Braves. They didn't have the full level of defense as the Cubs. They had 2 superstar WAR guys (Acuna, 9.1, Olson, 6.6), 3 All-Stars (Riley 5.1, Murphy 4.9, Albies 4.1), and 3 Difference Makers (Harris 3.8, Ozuna, 3.2, Arcia, 2.4). Their second catcher, D'Arnaud, had avg .7 WAR. SUPERSTAR PCA > Acuna Tucker > Olson ALL-STAR Swanson = Riley Kelly < Murphy (defensive disadvantage) Hoerner < Albies DIFFERENCE MAKERS Happ < Harris Suzuki = Ozuna Busch > Arcia Amaya > (D'Arnaud) Due to Cubs' superior defense and baserunning, overall WAR expectations are SIMILAR for these two lineups..... Conclusion In part 3, I'll analyze each of these 9 players to see what the expectations are for their season-level stats. In part 4, I'll do the starting top 6 pitchers (Imanaga, Boyd, Rea, Taillon, Brown, Horton). I project Imanaga to return before June 10, and Assad to return for 2 appearances before the All-Star Break -although I expect Assad to start in the bullpen and fight for a rotation spot again. I won't bother with bullpen details until after the All-Star Break.... history tells me it's not worth that effort so early in the season.

Hello Cubs World, I'm just thrilled to provide another blog entry regarding the Cubs. I'm less thrilled by the bullpen antics. But before I get into player details, let's just stop and appreciate a few basic predictions I made at the team level and how they have panned out. My Off-Season Expectations: Team Position Player Rankings The Cubs are performing up to expectations in the field, at bat, and baserunning. The most important overall offensive statistic for the regular season is simply runs/game. This stat captures the combination of power hitting, smallball hits/walks, and baserunning. Cubs are currently the second best overall RPB performer, which is only possible with a team high in all three areas of offense. Let's break this down. POWER HITTING My Expectation: 6th-8th Reality at Game 44: 4th (4th in slugging, OPS, extra base hits, and home runs per at bat). Why the difference: Carson Kelly. If he drops off, we should expect Cubs to revert to my expectations, unless we see offsetting turnarounds from players like Justin Turner, Ian Happ, Jon Berti, and Nico Hoerner - all somewhat underperforming their usual slugging numbers. ON BASE HITTING (Smallball) My Expectation: 4th-6th Reality at Game 44: Approximately 8th currently (10th in OBP, 12th in batting average, 4th in Walks/game, 12th in both sacrifice hits AND flies/game, and still #1 in avoiding double plays!!!!) Why the difference: The recent Mets and Marlins series set them back, with 6 games of low average hitting. That's it.- about ten games ago, cubs were second in this set of stats, and first in walks. This has been a volatile stat for the Cubs. At times they have been elite in OBP and walks, but they have also struggled with strikeouts and batting average during tough stretches. The best explanation here is the Cubs have been extremely efficient at producing runs- they aren't stranding many runners or hitting into double plays, and they are sacrificing for RBIs with a high rate of success. Overall I still expect this club to pan out in the range I have predicted, but to get there they need higher batting averages from Suzuki, Tucker, and the Bench/3B. Both Suzuki and Tucker have had a steep drop-off in base hits lately, and that's caused the clubs batting average to nosedive more than anything else. BASERUNNING My Expectation: 2nd-3rd (Cubs have never historically been a #1 baserunning team!!!) Reality at Game 44: 2nd overall (3rd in bases/game, 3rd in success rate/game, 4th in extra base hit percentage) Why the difference: no difference at all. The Cubs would be #1 if PCA was hitting for less power - his chances to steal have dropped quite a bit - and if Happ and Swanson were stealing bases closer to their historical rates. Happ and Swanson are both capable of 15-20 SB, but aren't acting like it is a priority. The team overall is focusing more on swing for the fences than stolen bases, and frankly that's a better strategy if you HAVE the elite power. Who is quibbling over a few bags? The point is they are a perpetual threat, and only a few guys CANT add value with baserunning. STARTING PITCHING My Expectation: 7th-9th Reality at Game 44: Hard to evaluate, but I would say that Imanaga/Boyd/Rea are about 10th best as a trio, but the rest has been below average. Why the difference: obviously, losing Justin Steele and Javier Assad took two of our five top guys out of rotation. Imagine how much better the pen would look if we had Brown and Rea as the two long relievers.... BULLPEN My Expectation: 14th-16th Reality at Game 44: We slid into 18th-20th recently Why the Difference, Despite tons of talent, and tons of depth, all of the top arms in the pen have had really BAD games- epic meltdowns between large seas of solid performance. We have seen meltdowns from Merryweather, Pressly, Hodge, and even Thielbar earlier in the season. Basically, every guy is good, but nobody is RELIABLE- all the top options are also guilty of singlehandedly losing at least 2 games, EACH- which is double the rate of disasters that the team can sustain. Sure, bullpens are always difficult, and are more often responsible for losses than starters. But think of these meltdowns as multi-run fielding errors- events so bad that they can squander the good actions of many other team members. To be a top bullpen, they need to cut their "oospies" events in HALF. SUMMARY: SKILL PREDICTIONS The Cubs are currently contenders at every level of the team except one- the bullpen. However, it is part of Jed Hoyer's Strategy to only focus on the bullpen during the second half of the season. Also, he has a fairly good track record of putting together second half bullpens (although there's been epic collapses there as well). If there's any one area of the team you can FIX midseason, its the bullpen. And, they held back enough money to get TWO arms midseason- expect that to happen. TEAM WAR In my early blogposts, I focused on concocting a high WAR roster. I argued that the Cubs have a 94.5 -96.5 win roster, assuming a healthy 26 man (that would include Justin Steele). I argued that the Cubs had a base roster of 96.5 wins, 2 of which were a 2 MOJO bonus WAR of 2 wins, because of their unusual depth and completeness as a roster. The rest of the wins can be calculated by summing the WAR projections of the individual players (its not any worse than ZIPS projections!) Right now the cubs have a 25-19 record, but with the hardest schedule in the majors, and about to face the easiest schedule in the majors for the rest of the year. which we will use to project total wins. My off-season expectation: 96.5 wins My adjusted Projection: 95-67 Why the change: I lowered my pitching expectations. I now project the Cubs as having the 9th best starters and the 18th best bullpen UNTIL MID-SEASON TRADE MOVES ARE MADE. Why 9th? I expect Taillon and Brown to both go on a great tear, while facing easy opponents. currently I power rank them as 5th in baseball, trailing the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, and Yankees. ...... and this assumes two fresh bullpen arms at trade deadline, Matt Shaw stabilizes 3B, and every starting pitcher returns to help, except Steele. Why the Difference: No difference, same confidence interval. Every player I over-projected was equally offset by another I under-projected- and none of those were terribly far off the mark. They slugged quite a bit better than expected, fielded a bit WORSE than expected (Swanson, Tucker, , #3B still not producing defensive runs), and gave up more home runs and walks at the rubber than I expected. Conclusion, Part 1: Thanks for following my Blog. The Cubs are still the class of the division and are about to go on a tear, a slugfest, and pitching correction. For part 2, I'll get into the detailed analyses of the players and my optimistic projections for the future of the pitching.

Agreed with this- although Tucker is the likely highest OPS hitter, with Suzuki a close second, PCA is currently winning the MVP race due to his overall game. Suppose we project Kelly to cool down and end up with a .950 OPS on 350 plate appearances, and 1 defensive WAR. Suppose also we expect Swanson to step up a bit hitting and put up a 2 WAR defense .... Hoerner 2.5 WAR defense... but most other players to be close to flat in performance: top 7 Projected total WAR Ranking, position weighted, regular season: PCA 8 - 11 well rounded, all elite skills, generational glove Tucker 5.5 - 8 well rounded, all elite skills, generational balance Kelly 4 - 5.5 mostly offense Swanson 4 - 5.5 balanced, excellent defense Suzuki 4 - 5 offense and baserunning Hoerner 3.5 -4 mostly defense, baserunning Busch 3 - 3.5 balanced except baserunning Happ 3 - 3.5 mostly offense, some defense Amaya 2.5 - 3.5 well rounded except baserunning

oh yeah- official merch comes with its own qr code so the authenticity is verified at the gate ... you can now charge $20 more for QR authentic merch, and use it as a club discount item when its in season

Hello Cubs World, I had to jump into this conversation. As a Business Professor, I'm always looking for the bottom-line opportunities. Here's my suggestions, based on all the news I've read on this matter: 1) Pinstripes is the Late Season Look The new home uniform has visual appeal on television, but is a bit less popular with merchandising, for a few reasons. First, when we think of the Fall Classic, we can only ever picture our teams in their most "formal looking" attire. Pinstripes feels like we are dressed to win, like a tuxedo. Second, all the dominant franchises have a uniform that commands this sense of formality - think of the Yankees and Dodgers, and how "classic" they look. Third, fans are conservative because they skew older in baseball than i some other sports. They like reminiscing over good times. Fourth, pinstripes at home after the All-Star game, and in post-season. New uniform at home in preseason and before the All-Star game. The old uniform feels like Fall, and playoff runs. 2) The Blues is an Early Season Look Many teams have been experimenting with "ultramodern" looks, largely because of experimentation with high performance synthetic fibers. Frankly, it's easier to make something look like artificial colors when using artificial materials. Second, younger fans tend to like such artificial colors over earthier, natural colors. They are more neuro-stimulating/psychedelic, and they look more like animation and video game colors. Third, Spring makes us thing about bright colors, newness, progress, and intentional change. Every team is finding itself anew in the Spring. We are hoping for our team to come together and look like a squad worthy of a playoff run. The blue sky offers us a metaphor for possibilities. 3) More Money? Better Symbolism Most people get tattoos, or choose their wardrobes, to signify some important meaning. Fans could really get into the double meaning of "the possibilities of Spring" versus the "winner-take all" contest of the Fall. This way, you're selling two looks for parts of the year to fans, with both having deep significance. The fans would also be encouraged to participate in this symbolism. Hey, most of the success of Japanese baseball is how they treat the whole fan experience like a meaningful ritual to unite a region of the country, not too different from their folk ritual holiday events. Same with soccer clubs around the world. If you want to raise revenues and intensify the loyalty, increase the excitement, the team bonding, and the team lore with better fan rituals and symbols. Make the symbols represent things at a deeper level. The Spring Squad must find their Identity, and the Fall Squad must get to work deploying the best version of that identity. Win-Win. It nets the club more merch money when the fans en masse make the merch switch mid-season every year. Every year the spring look can evolve, but the fall classic look would stay very similar over time 4) Ball-Players Choose the Hat Logos? In addition, make the hat logo change every year, even in subtle ways, to be vintage of that year. My preferred idea would be to sell 5 versions of the hat logo, each labeled on the back of the hat as the "Preseason, Pre-All Star, Post-All Star, Postseason, and World Series" variants of the logo. My simple suggestion is that the logo would slightly evolve during the season to show how the team has "leveled up". Similar to how a military officer is awarded more stripes, the logo could be awarded a different "flair" to it. The team only hits its 4th stage of evolution if it makes the post-season, and 5th stage at World Series, but would always hit the first 3 stages. I know for awhile, everyone thought that fans should vote on everything. But sometimes, there's good reasons to do it differently. The identity of the 40 man roster should be celebrated as much as possible to create a bond with the fans. The 40-man roster of a given year should choose it OWN logo from a list of suggestions that they think fits their squad. The 40-man squad would vote on the annual hat logo, and its progression designs, 10 days before their first Spring Training Game. Any player who comes into later stages of the team, via trade or returning from injury, will get the uniform of that stage, but not of any stages they missed. 5) Annual Team Captains? I believe that after 2026, MLB teams should have captains, who are the spirit leaders of the team. They are voted on by the 40 man players on the roster shortly before the Regular season starts. Players vote for players, pitchers vote for pitchers. 2 votes, split between two different candidates, from the Head Coach and Bench Coach. 1 vote each for the Pitching Coach, Hitting Coach; and, one hitting candidate from the 1st and 3rd Base coaches, and 1 vote for 1 pitching candidate from 2 top pitching assistant managers (50 votes total). There should be 2 captains - one on the field (25 votes), one in the bullpen (25 votes). The main requirements are that both Captains must have been with the major league club for at least 1 full year prior of service, providing evidence of team leadership qualities. In the first year of captainhood, a player must contracted for at least 1 more year of service or possess a player or club option year for the next year. A player should be able to serve as a repeat captain, however, if they are entering the last year of contract. Thus, the Captain cannot be a short-term "mercenary" player. Voters are encouraged to not automatically pick the player with the highest projected WAR, but the player who is the morale leader of the team for "rallying rituals" during the game or speaking to the press. For position players it may default to being a vote-off of a starting catcher and a shortstop in the rare instance nobody qualifies the contract length requirement' or, the nominated "ace starter" regardless of playing service as the default pitching captain. The Captain's Jersey will have a Captain designation for that year. If the Captain is traded by the fall trade deadline, or if they are placed on the 60-day injured list, another Captain may be selected immediately. Cubs Captains in 2025 would definitely include Shota Imanaga (The obvious fan favorite) and probably include Dansby Swanson (the heart of the defense and the longest contracted Cub). A case could be made that Ian Happ or Nico Hoerner would steal the vote from underneath Swanson, because Happ is media savvy and Hoerner is considered a bench leader. However, in 2026, Kyle Tucker could easily steal that designation if we sign him. Because team Captains are expected to speak first on the microphone at major club activities, and to be a leader with public relations, they would receive 100k to donate to a charity of their choosing within their home State, and 100k in personal income bonus for every captain selection they have earned, pegged to inflation increases. The league would pay for this; in addition to paying for a basic PR campaign to introduce all the Opening Day team captains to the public every year. In addition, AA and AAA teams should also have captains with captain bonuses of 25k for charity, 25k income for non 40 -man roster players with at least 1 year of club service. Designated captains could be traded or promoted but not cut in the year they are designated captains. They could not be promoted before June 1 or traded before July 1. Only 2 new captains can be selected each year to replace promoting, traded, or 60 day injured players at either the minor or major league level. They still get the same financial bonuses if they serve for at least 25 games. Replaced minor league captains could not be promoted or traded at all for that year, without paying an additional 200k bonus to the new captain and 200k to the minor league club's charitable donations, and captains who finish the year in that role would cost an extra 200k to take in the following Rule 5 Draft. Conclusion I think this is a BANGER IDEA, and would set a trend in the league. I should be hired by the league to prove why this would increase revenues and fan engagement. It provides another level of "baseball lore" for fans to unite over. IT would make all uniforms uniquely collectible for each of the 5 stages of the season. It would greatly encourage fans to wear the proper gear in the two sides of the season, and the proper hat from each of the 5 stages of competitive evolution (although I would restrict the Postseason and World Series sales to 2 types of fans - those who attended postseason/world series games, and those who had proof of purchase of the prior hats of the season). It would also encourage fans to buy more early and late stage gear to prove their loyalty and standing as fans. It would greatly increase sales and increase team morale/loyalty. Finally, fans wearing the matching kit and/or hat for the right part of the current season, when attending live, would always receive a gift at the gate, EVERY TIME they attend - such as a free bobblehead doll of a non-star on the 26 man roster, a $7 food voucher, a stadium towel, a vinyl bumper sticker, or 20% off any merchandise order at the stadium up to $100.

Here's my suggestion: Pinstripes at home after the All-Star game, and in post-season. New uniform at home in preseason and before the All-Star game. The new uniform feels like Spring, the old like Fall. This way, you're selling two looks for parts of the year to fans. Win-Win, and nets the club more merch money than a single home uniform, when they make the merch switch mid-season every year. In addition, make the hat logo change every year, even in subtle ways, to be vintage of that year.

This is a very important stat, and greatly overlooked by Cubs Fans. They all dream of him hitting over 30 HR and are disappointed it never happens. What they should be focusing on is that he's the most consistently clutch Cubbie against the division rivals and in September.... which makes him a better deal for the Cubs than any other team. He's worth at least 3/million more a year to us than anyone else. I want to make him a lifer, but if any 1 team could steal him away from us, its the Pirates. They could offer him a longer contract than us for 2027+. My second guess would be the Cardinals. But other than that, he's got a chance to be a Cubbie for life.

Did you read the entire part about how we don't need a traditional edge opposite Sweat, because we don't run that style of defense? Please reread that part and let me know your thoughts about the Bears' defensive scheme. Its a bullrush strongside scheme that uses elite DTS to pair off and dominate against the right guard and tackle. This is combined with backer and linebacker blitzes, which will be running twice as frequently as the Eberflus era.

Hello Cubs World, I know this is a baseball site. You know this is a baseball site. K. But I'd venture to guess at least half of the people around here support the Bears, too. And coming off two early-season losses to the Phillies, and several bullpen changes, I'm in a "wait and see" mode to analyze the Cubbies. We have every reason to love our lineup, and our starting rotation is holding up fairly well ....except Ben Brown. I've been criticizing him since the offseason as a mere placeholder for Cade Horton, or at the very least Chris Flexen... I want more data on both AAA and the bullpen before I sound off again, so I'm waiting for game 40. In the meantime, allow me to abuse this blog space to drop some hot takes on the Bears' draft strategy and what it tells us about the coming season. Many of these opinions haven't been expressed yet by any major news source, so I expect some people to say: "where did you get THIS from?" Answer: logic, sweet logic. Ben Johnson's Strategy BJ has revealed quite a bit about what he's planning for. Let's look at offense first, pick by pick. Rnd 1: TE Colston Loveland What the press said: "Why would you pick the 2nd best TE? Why not Tyler Warren?" Analysis: This pick didn't surprise me at all- or any die hard Bears fan. Tyler Warren wants to be THE guy and get all the touches. He's not humble. Colston, on the other hand, is happy to start slow and work his way into the offense from a limited role at first. Well, that limited role happens to be a perfect fit for a Sam LaPorta level Slot-motion TE, who can handle the weak side of a 12 offense and do it all. Loveland need not be THE guy, just split the targets 50/50 with Kmet to utterly baffle defenses. And Kmet already got his big contract last year, so he isn't worried about a reduction in receptions in 2026. Loveland is the initial MOTION TE on the weakside for sub-packages, versus Kmet's Inline strongside role for over 90% of snaps. our other TE's are simply Kmet backups - if Loveland goes down with injury, Kmet will move to the weak side for those packages. Example Formations: 12 (2WR 2TE 1 back); Weakside Spread (3 WR 2 TE no back, left side motion TE); H Back/Slot TE (2WR 2 TE, 1 back, Motion TE on left side) Rookie Playing Time: 35% Targets: 3/game = ~50 Rnd 2: WR/RB Luther Burden What the press said: "I don't get it. Why let him take touches away from Loveland, Kmet, Odunze, and Moore? too many cooks in the kitchen" Analysis: This isn't a wide receiver. This is a hybrid scatback/ slot receiver who will train with the running back room. This is a guy who will take shovel passes, tosses, short slants, wheel routes, and also block in space. He will only go vertical 10+ yards about twice a game. As a hybrid "scatback", he will see time as our 3rd down and no huddle back. Burden will motion in/out of the slot on the weak AND strong side. You've been misled by the press to think that he's going to be fighting for touches with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. No, he's fighting for touches with D'Andre Swift! Example Formations: Pro Splitback (2WE, 1TE, 2 backs aside the QB); Motion Weak Slot (2 WR, 1 scatback/slot motion weakside, 1 RB); Weakside Spread (as above) Rookie playing time: 40-60% Targets/carries: 7/ game = ~120 Rnd 2: T Ozzie Trapilo What the press said: "you needed to replace Braxton Jones in 2025 with a REAL left tackle!!!! This guy is a developmental tackle!!!" Analysis: The press wanted a 1st year starter at left tackle for no explicable reason. Only Will Campbell was a sure thing at that role and he was gone. Joe Thuney can also play Left Tackle quite well if we need him. Furthermore, this constant complaint about our left side is unwarranted! Braxton Jones was the highest rated Bears player via PFF in 2025...even higher than Darnel Wright but in fewer snaps !!! Sure he has had health issues, but he's still one of the better left tackles in the league for 2024. Why the hate on him? Instead, the Bears went for the best SWING tackle in the draft- the most likely guy to play BOTH sides equally as well and compete at BOTH positions in the long run. Many people had Trapilo ranked somewhere between #6 and #8 on the list of 2025 tackles, and the Bears got real value by trading down for him as the 6th off the board. Deal with it- it was a GREAT pick for a GREAT player who needn't start this year. Jones will do the thing. Also Kiran is much better than the press remembers and is also in the mix. Kiran was drafted in the 3rd in 2023 but was rated as a high 2nd Rnd left tackle who only fell due to injury. He's the same guy with 1 more year of practice and weight training. He's probably next in line on the left side anyhow. Trapilo is an instant right side replacement if we end up with an injured Wright. Playing Time: sub only in 2025; high chances to become a RT starter in 2026 when Braxton Jones departs. Serviceable at left due to 1 year starting experience as a sophomore. Rnd 2: DT Shamar Turner What the press said: "you needed an EDGE rusher to pair with Montez Sweat! This is a DT!!!" Analysis: Clearly the press doesn't understand the Bears' defensive scheme. We already have our 2 Weakside Edges - Montez Sweat and Austin Booker. We have our top 2 nose guys: Andrew Billings and Chris Williams, although Grady Garrett can also cover it in a pinch. In our scheme, the strongside DE and the 3 tech DT are interchangeable- they rotate, stunt, and twist frequently, and are expected to be in the 290-310 range with elite motor and ferocity against the RUN. When the strong end rushes the passer, they power rush and use sheer ferocity to overwhelm the tight end or right tackle. According to some analysts, Turner is the #1 role player in the ENTIRE 2025 DRAFT for this style of offense... except perhaps Mykel Williams from the first round. He's a perfect scheme fit. Shamar Turner will exist in a 4-man rotation with Gervon Dexter, Deyo Odeyingbo, and Grady Garrett at the two strongside DL positions, and focus on run-stopping situations. He's an absolute maniac against the run! Besides, our top 3 guys are so good that he'll struggle to see the field in any other situation as a rookie. One year training with the other boys and he'll be a pass rusher as well. Odeyingbo is the starting DE rusher for day 1. Playing Time: 25% defense as a rookie run specialist, unless injuries force the issue. And, special teams. Rnd 4: Ruben Hypollite, LB/S What the press said: "Why not a running back? I don't see the value here! What is his position? They have TJ Edwards already at WLB" Analysis: Just like every other player above, the press fails to understand the scheme the Bears are running. The NFL press is conservative and always evaluates players against some generic prototypical offense/defense look from 10 years ago. I LOVE THIS PICK. This is yet another mismatch player, same as all the others above, designed to play a hybrid role that confuses the opponent. He's an oversized SAFETY, guys! Hypollite ran faster than BRIAN URLACHER did as a safety coming into the NFL (Urlacher came from a 3 safety scheme that replaces the middle linebacker, so really a hybrid role player). Urlacher famously transitioned to a cover 2 middle linebacker as the fastest in the NFL of his size- a role that is essentially a safety half the time. Ruben is destined for the same role- the speediest packages at which Edmunds has struggled! He's only 5' 11'', 236, but that never stopped a safety with his level of athleticism ! Hyppolite can move sideline to sideline, or vertical, like Urlacher did. He's the most underrated defensive player in the entire draft, and would have been taken in the 5th early if the Bears hadn't gotten to him. 5th fastest 40 yd dash of ALL TIME for an NFL LB draftee, and very trainable, high FB IQ player that runs faster than 3/4ths of the SAFETIES in the NFL. He will replace the strong safety in tough yardage situations. He can replace the Nickelback Kyle Fuller in red zone coverage situations., or against 2 TE looks. He will also fight with Noah Sewell for strongside situations to cover obvious passing routes vs. running backs. He's got many sub-package roles and will be used on special teams. Formations: 4/2/5 Middle Safety (Edwards weak, Edmunds strong); 4/4/3 short yardage package (replaces strong safety Brisker); 4-3 strongside LB covering the pass. Playing Time: 20% as a sub-package specialist at middle safety, heavy strong safety, and even strongside LB. Special teams tackler. Rnd 5: Zah Frasier What the press said: "He's the fastest CB in the draft. But is he any good? Can he ever challenge Smith or Stevenson as WR2?" Analysis: Yet again, the press doesn't understand his value. All they could see was a guy who's a bit skinny and a track star playing against weak opponents. The Bears picked him not out of need but best player available and best mismatch potential for specific packages. Look at the tape from 2024- despite his academic struggles, Frasier played smart football. He wasn't just fast, he know where the ball was and made many plays to force turnovers. He was hyper-productive. Furthermore, they don't need him to contribute in 2025- he's the LAST DB on the roster, and will be used as an elite gunner on special teams. With his speed, he'll be disrupting kicks and punts routinely. Furthermore, he will be used on pure vertical routes against 4Wide players - every NFL team has a 4.3 40 vert route guy now for no huddles and desperate 3rd and long situations, and that's what Frasier is there to stop. Formations: Special Teams Gunner; 4Wide CB (replaces traditional Dimeback) Playing Time: All ST snaps, 5 plays per game on defense. Rnd 6(compensatory): G Luke Newman Analysis: I'll be brief on this one. Newman is just a developmental prospect - an insurance policy on our other guards. Because he's not a big draft target, he will likely make the practice squad and survive there under the radar as a developmental player, since he needs to add a whole year of gym bulk to be ready. But he's got the smarts and the trainability to become a year 2 contributor. This was a "free pick" we acquired that should be valued as a 7th rounder. Rnd 7: RB Kyle Monangai What the press said: "The Bears repeatedly missed on running back! This guy isn't going to be featured!" Analysis: Duh. This is a mere insurance policy. We dont.... need.... another running back. say it with me folks: "We drafted Luther Burden to split duties with Swift!" We have Rochon Johnson as our short yardage back, and he did a great job with a very high 1st down and touchdown success rate! We have a TOP running offensive line now with the elite play of Thuney, Dalman, and Wright leading the way! We have elite speed coming up in our big-brained slashing back Ian Wheeler, who missed last season due to injury. He's a 4.3 homerun threat in singleback spread looks. Monangai is simply there to compete with Rochon Johnson for blocking and short yardage downs, and need not even win that competition in 2025. Furthermore, if we really decide we need another back on the roster, there's 10 serious names out there over age 28 who would take a 1-year deal in the 2-4 million range- people like D'onta Foreman, Nick Chubb... Swift /Burden are featured receiving backs who can run; Johnson is goal line; the rest is just icing on the cake. Conclusion: The Bears loaded up on pure mismatch players! That's exciting stuff. The press is so conditioned to think that you only have 11 starters on offense and defense. Your 22 starters must put up huge fantasy numbers. Ok, that's not how Ben Johnson operates. Johnson wants to have a sub-package for every situation that is so good, we basically have 16 starters on each side of the ball! And when you look down this list, you'll see that every opposing team will have a hard time game planning, because if plan A starting packages fail for the Bears, BJ has plans B-F to beat them with alternative looks and schemes. The current NFL is dominated by offenses who have so many tools that their "starters" must compete every down for touches with other freaks of nature. Johnson just added a stacked lineup of freaks of nature in rounds 1-5 to complement their starters. That's good drafting.

We would benefit from a batting order change. I don't beleive in "letting it ride" for a guy on a big slump. He'll be back but don't reward his desperate chasing. He needs the same advice as PCA: pick your pitches better. Opposing pitchers have discovered he'll chase fasballs out of the zone, or hit an early count pitch into a glove. Put Swanson 8th and slide everyone above him up one spot. Have him find his patience again. In the meantime, coach him to sac fly and drive in Hoerner/PCA/catchers with base hits instead of wild homerun swings. When he finds his discipline, let him swing away again. The 8 slot makes more sense for Dansby for the foreseeable future.

Hello Cubs World, I'm sure you were rooting for Gage Workman. I know I was. He looked good at the plate. He hits lefty. He plays key positions for which we need solutions. But Gage's errors were even worse than Shaw's. Shaw had several errors in a small sample, even worse than we expected from the failed campaigns of Chris Morel and Patrick Wisdom in 2023 and 2024. Workman managed to outdo him by committing two errors vs the Dodgers in a single game that cost us a hefty lead - that game was only miraculously recovered by a team effort. Furthermore, his errors were pretty cringe- Berti would have succeed in the same situations. We've got the best bats in the game right now. We already can face the Dodgers or Yankees with confidence. We don't need our 9 hole hitter to contribute power whatsoever. What we need is a lock down defense and bullpen fixes, and the bottom of the order to simply get on first base anyway possible and attempt to advance as a runner. Counsell saw an opportunity to ensure we have the best utility glove possible. So, enter the hitless wonder Nicky Lopez- one of the most efficient defenders in all of baseball. Berti is the best glove we had at 3rd. But Lopez is the guy you need to absolutely positively get the out - even as reliable as a Dansby Swanson. Every team loves a utility guy that is a "closer in the field". Sure, he hits about well as Justin Turner this year. Hence, you'll see much more use of our Catchers as a pinch bat. And Turner may soon be cut. But at a certain point, more bats doesn't do as much for us as more bullpen or more glove. The Cubs are just as bad at 3B as anyone this year, committing errors almost every other game! Let's be honest: Matt Shaw and Gage Workman both belong at 2B. They would tell you the same if you asked them- they both made the change only to fit team needs. I've been suspicious of the Shaw Experiment from the beginning, but a year in AAA and he could probably master the position. He was rushed into a job and we all knew it. Berti is the real 3B option, and I'm getting tired of the endless search for power at the position. We don't NEED power when we got a guy who can steal 40 bags and basically mimic Hoerner's style. 2 years out of the past 4, he outhit Hoerner! He's capable of a .760 OPS combined with elite baserunning, and having 2 such guys in a lineup has many benefits. Berti is a better 9 hole option than most teams have in the 7 or 8 hole! Get over it and enjoy his job of restarting the lineup in the middle and late innings. If he's standing on 1st or 2nd, it will make Happ and Tucker look even better. Since the beginning of the season I have been arguing that he's our 3B in 2025 and a steal of a deal. At only 3 million base salary, he's easily worth 6-8m as our starter at 3rd. Shaw will get his chance to take over late in the season or next year or simply to be a pinch bat. He's under team control through 2030. As for Workman, I'm sure he'll stick with another team but it won't be at 3rd. He's destined to make a good starting 2B eventually.

Hello Cubs World, It's about time to make some revised projections! First, I will review my early guesses for the first 20 games and see how close I was. Then, I'll give a revised "injury free" guess at the rest of the season. I'll keep it simple since we have a long way to go. I will give a deeper analysis around game 40ish. I Always say that you need 40 games before you know your club identity- especially pitching. But let's give it a shot. I didn't give exact numbers for each player on thr blog, but I'll fill those in from my own spreadsheet here. Going down the typical batting order, what was my inital guess? 1 Happ. Expected OPS: .750 Actual OPS: .690 Why: I expected close to his career average (.790) again this year, although he usually hits better after the all-star break. So i weighted it slightly down. If he goes 2 for 4 with a Homer, double, and BB next game, he's perfectly on track! 2 Tucker Expected OPS: .750 Actual OPS: 1.054 Why: Although I expected a monster year, Kyle's Spring was so bad that I was worried for a slow start. Worries are now laid to rest. 3 Suzuki Expected OPS: .900 Actual OPS: .931 Why: nothing much to say... he's the guy I thought he was. 4 Busch Expected OPS: .800 Actual OPS: .999 My estimate was on point for 18 games. Good for us that he became red hot!!! 5 Swanson Expected OPS: .600 Actual OPS: .590 Why: Sorry to be right about this, but I expected a slow start. I love his power profile but he's too aggressive and putting the first hittable ball into gloves. At least he's producing RBIs at a normal clip. 6 Hoerner Expected OPS: .700 Actual OPS: .714 Why: he's still an elite contact hitter but needs more XBHs to reach his full potential. Not a single HR yet- he's being coached to get on and steal. I'm OK with that for now. 7 PCA Expected OPS: .770 Actual OPS: .806 Why: He's lowering his chase rate and raising his power. Despite bad press about his supposedly bad hitting, he's been as hot as expected. 8 Amaya / Kelly Expected combined OPS: .800 Actual combined OPS: 1.2 Why: as I hoped, they remained hot, but never would anyone guess Kelly would be THIS hot!!! I expected Amaya to slightly outhit him. It's time to play Kelly like the top bench bat, and like the 60 percent starting catcher, instead of the other way around. That bat still outweighs Amaya's reputation for calling a good game. Use him daily at the plate as DH or pinch until he cools off. WIN GAMES. 9 Berti/Shaw Expected combined OPS: .660 Actual combined OPS .560 Why: as expected, Shaw started slow and Berti started solid but not special. As expected, Counsell let Shaw play too much, and the Cubs would have benefitted from more Workman and Berti reps. 10 Turner Expected OPS: .600 Actual OPS: .433 I hate to say I told you so, but this was a bad signing. I saw nothing good in Spring training and actually went against my instincts when I said .600 simply because every projection swore this guy couldn't crater so badly. But he did. He needs a boot camp. Platoon results: I also told everyone that Busch didn't need a platoon, but now we know it clearly. Busch splits: 1.019 RHP / .804 LHP Instead I suggested giving PCA days off and/or PHs against top rotation lefties - and the data tracks. PCA splits. .835 RHP / .715 LHP. We have some personnel that can beat that split....but not beat Busch! Bench Strategy: Counsell needs to switch to plan B as i expected Going forward, Carson Kelly should replace Turner as the key pinch DH option in every late inning situation, and need not take the field for that plate appearance. You don't need "rest" when pinch hitting! Kelly should also be the DH rest option to let PCA sit vs elite starting LHP, and then allow PCA to pinch RUN on those days... with Suzuki taking left and Happ center field, exactly as I recommended! This will only happen about once every 10 games, but create difficult looks for the opposition with low risk, and pacing PCA so he doesn't get hurt. On such days, Brujan can take left field late for Suzuki, and Happ can prove he's still got CF range while he's young enough. Brujan should be the "day of rest" option for Happ, Tucker, or the first defensive replacement during blowout games. He's a great outfielder but not quite a Berti in the infield. Workman can sub for Hoerner, Swanson, or Berti, and can hit for Swanson late to give Swanson or Hoerner some field rest. His best position is 2B and Hoerner is the best backup SS. Berti should start 3B- he's the most reliable fielder there and not a hitting liability. Full Season Projections for our top 7 hitters (assuming 610 plate appearances) It is too early to guess how the catchers and utility bench does. Here's my recommended tweak to the batting order, and estimates: HR / SB BA / OBP / SLG / OPS Happ 20/13 .260 /.355 /.430 /.785 Tucker 40/25 .315 /.415 /.590 /1.005 Suzuki 35/10 .300 /.375 /.555 /.930 Busch 32/7 .275 /.345 /.500 /.845 Hoerner 5/40 .295/.345/.385/.730 PCA 22/50 .265/.320/.460/.780 *Catchers* Swanson 20/12 .235 /.290/.435/.725 *3B* Notes: Bullish on Suzuki/Busch I adjusted my expectations upward a bit due to the intimidation factor and high morale. Originally I saw Busch as .810 OPS and Suzuki hitting 900. However, the feeling is electric around both hitters now. I'm leaving pretty much everyone else to similar numbers as I previously expected. Nobody wants to pitch to Tucker but they can't get past Suzuki/Busch with any confidence either. Busch is rapidly transforming into peak Rizzo- able to place strategic hits whenever and wherever needed to bring in the boys. Notes: Swanson to 8th Swanson may remain in the 5 hole simply because he is clutch- he tends to produce a high ratio of RBIs per hit. However, i think it makes more sense to slide Hoerner, PCA, and the catchers up one slot each and put Swanson down to 8th as the "late cleanup" batter behind Kelly/Amaya. This would do several good things. First, our top order is so reliable that the 5 hole, not the 6th, is really the best place to reset the order and get Hoerner on base with small ball. Having PCA 6th gives him a few more plate appearances than Swanson, and that's simply.smart management. PCA can either swing away or get on base and convert steals into runs, as is situationally necessary. Putting the powerful catcher duo 7th increases the RBI generation of Kelly/Amaya- especially giving Kelly the routine chance to drive in Hoerner/PCA. Hitting 8th, Swanson would be the insurance policy on Kelly and PCA instead of on Busch. He would think more about sac flies, as hes good at those. It also takes pressure off him to hit like a star, so he can focus on his superstar glove. Also, Berti /Shaw should still work the 9 spot and try to restart rallies for the top of the order rather than be expected to drive RBIs. They both walk well, steal well, and hit with contact well, and thus slot in nicely behind an aggressive Swanson. Notes: Hoerner to Leadoff vs LHP? Although I still like Happ as the default RHP leadoff option due to his long-term high OBP and versatility, Hoerner would objectively do more against lefties to get on base, especially due to the strong defensive shift against Happ. Happ simply isnt getting reliable base hits and relying on walking in the first inning. So, I prefer Happ to swap out to the 5 hole in that situation, where his right handed bat plays ok but is still lower OPS than Hoerner - he can flip left later in the game for pure power. Other than that, I'd roll with the order. As far as Justin Turner: let him ride the bench for the next 20 games and only be used if truly needed for injuries. Send him to the batting cages every single day and have him hit, hit, hit until he gets back to shape. Make him a healthy scratch on home games so he can get fit all day long and just sit and watch. He needs to lose 5 lbs and run sprints - he looks winded easily. He's playing like a lame duck who expects to retire at the end of the season. Brujan or Berti can cover 1st in a pinch. Give him until the all-star break to prove his roster spot again, or cut him and bring in a more reliable piece- just promote Shaw again and Long should be ready for injury situations! There's no time to coddle anyone, just like we didn't coddle Mancini or Hosmer. Busch is too good to be taken off the field for this old man. Conclusion: Im gonna brag a little bit about my instincts... I pretty much nailed it except my lack of faith in Kyle to blast out the starting gate. Busch overperformed my expectations slightly, while Happ and Shaw underperformed slightly, but even those numbers arent far off long-term expectations. The Cubs may be overperforming in terms of run production early, but not by much. Swanson remains the biggest concern at the plate... and is again the most likely star to miss midseason time due to some nagging minor injury from his on- field heroics Still, he's only slightly underperformed his contract currently, and could surprise at any time with an outburst of production. His clutch instincts are still there.

I still believe we win the tucker bid, because everyone else with that kind of bidding potential is already tightly locked up and wpuld need to move a big piece to clear room. Most big spenders have big time right fielders, or recently spent on huge contracts Like the Jays. The only t4ams I can think of that are a bidding war candidate are the Cards and the Rangers, and Hoyer would be fired by fan pitchforks if he lost the Cards bid war. We are still in a great position... we don't need any starting pitching. We can drop Turner's bad 1 year contract and move Taillon... and easily win a 450m range contract bid without even breaking the "cap". We would still have Steele, Imanaga, Horton, Boyd, Brown, Rea, Assad.... and our entire lineup back next year. The bigger question is who comes back after 2026 if we have a Tucker contract- Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Kelly are all due to depart. I would fight to keep Kelly, Hoerner and Happ, while letting Suzuki get his final big contract in the 25m/year range to play outfield again. All the Suzuki money would go to Kelly/Hoerner, while Happ would be tough to keep. We would expect him to slightly decline as a fielder and therefore land something like a 23mm/year deal, 5 years, 115m. That is a small, inflationary wage raise. Any team willing to go 6 years would likely outbid us, and some top spenders like Mets or Phillies may jump in. So ultimately i think we end up with Tucker, Kelly, and Hoerner long term 2027+ alongside Busch, PCA, Swanson, Amaya and Shaw. We lose Happ and Suzuki to keep Tucker and then fill those spots with prospects (Caissie and DH Ballesteros?). There's ways to keep Happ but I doubt it unless he takes a hometown discount.

Will be. Wr cling too closely to one person in a team sport. Even the Dodgers survive without Ohtani.

Chris's most popular recent video. https://youtu.be/knmCjJw8pgw?si=jEjS46RfMpYMYgbw

Hello Cubs World, So happy and proud to have won a Seiya Suzuki Bobblehead doll for my little slice of this website. Before I get into future baseball insights, let me give my gratitude to this community. It's a cool corner of the net that should be expanded. I gave it a trial run and I am glad we found each other eye-to-eye. This is a voluntary dues paying club waiting to happen. Let me walk you through my interpretation of my community blog award as a random human being you don't know. First, yes, I am a professor who loves stats and analysis. I have done business and economics for many years and consulted for pure fun. But I am more interested in the wierd journeys in life that unite us nerds. I've met so many wild and random people that I'm proud to tell you of them. Lets talk Shota Imanaga and why he's not the ideal bobblehead for me. this Suzuki gift was surprisingly appropriate for a reason... I'm not an Imanaga... but I always find myself tangential to such people. I'm truly more of a Suzuki, just more vocal. I show up and dominate rather than entertain. I'm the often minor injured guy you hope shows up to be the slugging hero, but otherwise plays it cool. But my counterparts always are the main show. Ok, Imanaga is the spitting image of a good friend of mine, not me. Let me tell you about a guy who loves making others happy and comfortable in THEIR backyard as an adventurer. Imanaga is that type of guy who loves tacos and burgers, and embraces being ex Japanese in many ways. And thats cool... he's as excited about being an American as Suzuki is awkward about it. I am currently living in an apartment in Atlanta given to me by the chief Animator responsible for Aqua Teen Hunger Force, and one of the official artists of the Grateful Dead Museum. He's not only a sports fan and animator but one of the central figures of nhe Japanese Jam Band scene now. Chris McMurray. Look him up on youtube- he does vids for "Tourheads in Japan". He recently left Atlanta for Japan, although he planned his escape as long as Imanaga did. He loves Japan far more than his former life, but won't sell us out either. Chris is in Yokohama - an escape he planned for many years, but I helped him pull off. Chris gifted me his apartment and I'm forever grateful He's happily married to his lovely Japanese native wife, and the most loyal Gaijin fan of the Yokohama Baystars- the former home team of Ace Imanaga and the winner of the "Japanese World Series". Chris is always put front for the Baystars as a fan to the mirror energy of Imanaga. Here's the wierd thing. I met Chris at Black Bear Tavern, the #1 Chicago sports tavern in Atlanta. He took me in and nurtured me as a Chicago loving Atlantean. I only met him because of my hankering for a Chicago Dog. We became fast friends and I'd love to see the Baystars with him sometime soon. Many months later, he became a Japanese citizen and left me with the keys to his apartment. What a class act. Many more stories were telling but not all at once here. I'm lucky and honored to be so deeply connected to this wild and crazy ride at North Side Baseball. I envision this website as a future hub for tavern club members outside of the Chicago area. A hub for loyalists to learn a deeper level of baseball analysis. And hopefully a meetup opportunity for away game fans to find each other in major cities. Id love to host Atlanta meetings for the Cubbie fans at Black Bear. .Despite my sentiment as Imanaga the pitching philosopher being the best bar buddy on the cubs for sake shots, similar to Chris being such a buddy, i see myself more as the DH. I love big personalities but prefer to technically achieve, to brute force my role on the team when called on. A samurai more than an entertainer. So a bobblehead fits me as a modest cultural ambassadors for the roots Japanese-Cubs experience. Seiya and I probably just want to eat that authentic Ramen and Okonomiyaki. So, if you pass through Atlanta and want an Italian roast beef, Chicago Dog, or other hometown favorites, drop me a line. thanks for giving me the most personally identified reward possible by mere coincidence. http://www.blackbeartavern.com/ https://youtube.com/@americantourheadsinjapan3720?si=-s5OeYBdDpNjqZgzhttp://www.blackbeartavern.com/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aqua_Teen_Hunger_Force https://npb.jp/bis/eng/players/01305132.html

interesting thoughts but... I'd rather go to Brown for now, until Assad is ready. Horton for a bit later. This rotation will do the job.... Imanaga Assad Boyd Taillon Rea .... And then Horton and Brown. We are stuck with Taillon and he keeps bouncing back from adversity. Boyd is outpitching Steele anyhow- if he stays healthy he's the guy. Assad and Rea both throw 5 pitches and can keep us in the game. Brown looks like the future swingman not a starter. He may need AAA time to find another pitch. Keller is the early inning fix it guy. Horton will eventually force his way to the rotation. If Assad is a basketcase, go straight to Horton.

Seems like we agree- your article is a mirror image of my last blog post! Great minds think alike. I'm bullish on Roberts, Palencia. I expect them to outpitch Pearson, Morgan. The latter two aren't fooling anyone. I'm iffy on Little, although if he can find control again he would outpitch Theilbar. I had expected Hughes to come up first but I'd be thrilled if little stuck. I wouldn't he surprised to see Thielbar traded to clear room soon. There's some teams who may take a chance on him due to his long term resume.

Also the best fielding and running in baseball helps, and the 2x deep bullpen in AAA can work wonders. There are 8 guys that make other teams jealous.