Hello Cubs World,

It's about time to make some revised projections! First, I will review my early guesses for the first 20 games and see how close I was. Then, I'll give a revised "injury free" guess at the rest of the season. I'll keep it simple since we have a long way to go. I will give a deeper analysis around game 40ish. 

I Always say that you need 40 games before you know your club identity- especially pitching. But let's give it a shot. I didn't give exact numbers for each player on thr blog, but I'll fill those in from my own spreadsheet here. 

Going down the typical batting order, what was my inital guess? 

1 Happ.

Expected OPS: .750

Actual OPS:  .690

Why: I expected close to his career average (.790) again this year,  although he usually hits better after the all-star break. So i weighted it slightly down. If he goes 2 for 4 with a Homer, double, and BB next game, he's perfectly on track! 

2 Tucker

Expected OPS: .750

Actual OPS: 1.054 

Why: Although I expected a monster year, Kyle's Spring was so bad that I was worried for a slow start. Worries are now laid to rest. 

3 Suzuki 

Expected OPS: .900

Actual OPS: .931

Why: nothing much to say... he's the guy I thought he was. 

4 Busch 

Expected OPS: .800

Actual OPS: .999

My estimate was on point for 18 games. Good for us that he became red hot!!! 

5 Swanson 

Expected OPS: .600

Actual OPS: .590

Why: Sorry to be right about this, but I expected a slow start. I love his power profile but he's too aggressive and putting the first hittable ball into gloves. At least he's producing RBIs at a normal clip. 

6 Hoerner

Expected OPS: .700

Actual OPS: .714

Why: he's still an elite contact hitter but needs more XBHs to reach his full potential. Not a single HR yet- he's being coached to get on and steal.  I'm OK with that for now. 

7 PCA

Expected OPS: .770

Actual OPS: .806

Why: He's lowering his chase rate and raising his power. Despite bad press about his supposedly bad hitting, he's been as hot as expected. 

8 Amaya / Kelly

Expected combined OPS: .800

Actual combined OPS: 1.2

Why: as I hoped, they remained hot, but never would anyone guess Kelly would be THIS hot!!! I expected Amaya to slightly outhit him. It's time to play Kelly like the top bench bat, and like the 60 percent starting catcher, instead of the other way around. That bat still outweighs Amaya's reputation for calling a good game. Use him daily at the plate as DH or pinch until he cools off. WIN GAMES. 

9 Berti/Shaw 

Expected combined OPS: .660

Actual combined OPS .560

Why: as expected, Shaw started slow and Berti started solid but not special. As expected, Counsell let Shaw play too much, and the Cubs would have benefitted from more Workman and Berti reps.  

10 Turner 

Expected OPS: .600

Actual OPS: .433

I hate to say I told you so, but this was a bad signing. I saw nothing good in Spring training and actually went against my instincts when I said .600 simply because every projection swore this guy couldn't crater so badly. But he did. He needs a boot camp. 

Platoon results: I also told everyone that Busch didn't need a platoon, but now we know it clearly. Busch splits: 1.019 RHP / .804 LHP

Instead I suggested giving PCA days off and/or PHs against top rotation lefties - and the data tracks. PCA splits. .835 RHP / .715 LHP. We have some personnel that can beat that split....but not beat Busch! 

Bench Strategy: Counsell needs to switch to plan B as i expected

Going forward, Carson Kelly should replace Turner as the key pinch DH option in every late inning situation, and need not take the field for that plate appearance. You don't need "rest" when pinch hitting! Kelly should also be the DH rest option to let PCA sit vs elite starting LHP, and then allow PCA to pinch RUN on those days... with Suzuki taking left and Happ center field, exactly as I recommended! This will only happen about once every 10 games, but create difficult looks for the opposition with low risk, and pacing PCA so he doesn't get hurt. On such days, Brujan can take left field late for Suzuki, and Happ can prove he's still got CF range while he's young enough. 

Brujan should be the "day of rest" option for Happ, Tucker, or the first defensive replacement during blowout games. He's a great outfielder but not quite a Berti in the infield. 

Workman can sub for Hoerner, Swanson, or Berti, and can hit for Swanson late to give Swanson or Hoerner some field rest. His best position is 2B and Hoerner is the best backup SS. Berti should start 3B- he's the most reliable fielder there and not a hitting liability. 

Full Season Projections for our top 7 hitters (assuming 610 plate appearances)

It is too early to guess how the catchers and utility bench does. Here's my recommended tweak to the batting order, and estimates: 

           HR / SB  BA / OBP / SLG / OPS 

Happ     20/13 .260 /.355 /.430 /.785

Tucker   40/25  .315 /.415 /.590 /1.005

Suzuki   35/10  .300 /.375 /.555 /.930

Busch    32/7   .275 /.345 /.500 /.845

Hoerner 5/40  .295/.345/.385/.730

PCA      22/50  .265/.320/.460/.780

*Catchers*

Swanson 20/12 .235 /.290/.435/.725

*3B*

Notes: Bullish on Suzuki/Busch

I adjusted my expectations upward a bit due to the intimidation factor and high morale. Originally I saw Busch as .810 OPS and Suzuki hitting 900. However, the feeling is electric around both hitters now. I'm leaving pretty much everyone else to similar numbers as I previously expected. Nobody wants to pitch to Tucker but they can't get past Suzuki/Busch with any confidence either. Busch is rapidly transforming into peak Rizzo- able to place strategic hits whenever and wherever needed to bring in the boys. 

Notes: Swanson to 8th

Swanson may remain in the 5 hole simply because he is clutch- he tends to produce a high ratio of RBIs per hit. However, i think it makes more sense to slide Hoerner, PCA, and the catchers up one slot each and put Swanson down to 8th as the "late cleanup" batter behind Kelly/Amaya. This would do several good things. First, our top order is so reliable that the 5 hole, not the 6th, is really the best place to reset the order and get Hoerner on base with small ball. Having PCA 6th gives him a few more plate appearances than Swanson, and that's simply.smart management. PCA can either swing away or get on base and convert steals into runs, as is situationally necessary. Putting the powerful catcher duo 7th increases the RBI generation of Kelly/Amaya- especially giving Kelly the routine chance to drive in Hoerner/PCA. Hitting 8th, Swanson would be the insurance policy on Kelly and PCA instead of on Busch. He would think more about sac flies, as hes good at those. It also takes pressure off him to hit like a star, so he can focus on his superstar glove. Also, Berti /Shaw should still work the 9 spot and try to restart rallies for the top of the order rather than be expected to drive RBIs. They both walk well, steal well, and hit with contact well, and thus slot in nicely behind an aggressive Swanson. 

Notes: Hoerner to Leadoff vs LHP?

Although I still like Happ as the default RHP leadoff option due to his long-term high OBP and versatility, Hoerner would objectively do more against lefties to get on base, especially due to the strong defensive shift against Happ. Happ simply isnt getting reliable base hits and relying on walking in the first inning. So, I prefer Happ to swap out to the 5 hole in that situation, where his right handed bat plays ok but is still lower OPS than Hoerner - he can flip left later in the game for pure power. Other than that, I'd roll with the order. 

As far as Justin Turner: let him ride the bench for the next 20 games and only be used if truly needed for injuries. Send him to the batting cages every single day and have him hit, hit, hit until he gets back to shape. Make him a healthy scratch on home games so he can get fit all day long and just sit and watch. He needs to lose 5 lbs and run sprints - he looks winded easily. He's playing like a lame duck who expects to retire at the end of the season. Brujan or Berti can cover 1st in a pinch. 

Give him until the all-star break to prove his roster spot again, or cut him and bring in a more reliable piece- just promote Shaw again and Long should be ready for injury situations! 

There's no time to coddle anyone, just like we didn't coddle Mancini or Hosmer. Busch is too good to be taken off the field for this old man. 

Conclusion:

Im gonna brag a little bit about my instincts... I pretty much nailed it except my lack of faith in Kyle to blast out the starting gate. Busch overperformed my expectations slightly, while Happ and Shaw underperformed slightly, but even those numbers arent far off long-term expectations.  The Cubs may be overperforming in terms of run production early, but not by much. 

Swanson remains the biggest concern at the plate... and is again the most likely star to miss midseason time due to some nagging minor injury from his on- field heroics Still, he's only slightly underperformed his contract currently, and could surprise at any time with an outburst of production.  His clutch instincts are still there.