Hello Cubs World, 

I dragged my feet on this one because the starting rotation is, like most other teams, a work in progress with injury issues.... that's just pitching in modern baseball. But its time to get to the point: how have they done, and what can we do about it? (Note: I'm also going to do an analysis soon of all the offseason misses - the guys the fans and media wanted us to pursue, and those we didn't, and where we'd be if we had made better choices). 

How They've Done, Through Game 53 

Sigh. 

I wish I had better news to report, but the Cubs starters have come up short of expectations, as a group. However, like most teams, we can blame injuries. 

(OUT) Justin Steele 

                                           W     L      ERA     G      IP           SO     WHIP  

Career Regular Season    32    22    3.30    102   506.2    517    1.21

No bother looking at 2025 stats: sample size was too small this year. Losing our #1 guy was a gut punch and not expected. At least he's under control for a couple more seasons. Steele will be more affordable in 2026, too, precisely because of this injury. He's got a strong profile to maintain a flat 3.0 ERA moving forward. That's the silver lining on the cloud. He was off to a slow start, which indicated that his injury was a multi-step process of inflammation turning into a blown arm. However, because the injury was in April, he has a great shot at being ready to go around the All-Star Break; therefore, he could still garner 15 impact starts next year. These days, it seems every big roster has at least 1, if not 2 or 3, guys who are on the "mid-season pitching calendar" now, and that has many roster benefits. For example, always having Clayton Kershaw as a back-pocket refreshing tool midseason has helped the Dodgers quite a bit. 

#1 Shota Imanaga

                                             W  L    ERA    G      IP        SO      WHIP
2025 Regular Season        3    2    2.82    8     44.2    34        1.10
Career Regular Season    18    5    2.89    37   218.0    208    1.04

He was showing us ace stuff when he went down. He's still the same guy and will come back to serve as our ace very soon. He started throwing again. Since he wasn't out long, and since it was a non-throwing injury, it shouldn't take long for him to get to full velocity and pitch count. I expect him to make only 2 rehab starts before returning. So let's say he'll be back around game 67-70 ish... best case scenario, he starts against the Phillies June 10th. This will give him the potential of 19 more starts this season. not too shabby, and definitely "enough" to make a big difference.

Verdict: He'll be back, same as 2024, and be among the top 10 starters in the National League. He'll win most of his games, much like last year. Imanaga will fall short of the innings count he'll need to be in contention for Cy Young (no big deal). He'll likely have his best season NEXT year....  

 #2 Matthew Boyd

                                              W  L    ERA     G     IP        SO     WHIP

  2025                                  4    2    3.42    10    55.1       56    1.32
Career Regular Season    50   71    4.76    192  963.2   947   1.31

 Ironically, everyone expected him to get hurt, but he's been very healthy. Fans tend to forget that guys are often healthier AFTER they repair their arms. Until recently, he was providing us sub-3 ERA stuff, but he had a mere 2 games where he got roughed up a bit. 3 more sharp starts and he could be back to a 3 ERA. Moyd has been showing us the best version of himself - exactly like the guy he was last year. His affordable contract makes Hoyer/Hottovy look smart. 

Verdict: He's showing us all we need to see out of a #3. Me and everyone else still expects the Cubs to find a #2 Right hander that can step over him in the rotation and fill Justin Steele's shoes for awhile. I expect him to finish strong, with an ERA in the 2.9-3.3 range. He'll have a winning season. 

 #3 Colin Rea

                                             W  L    ERA      G      IP      SO    WHIP

  2025                                  3    1    3.28     11    46.2     40    1.29
Career Regular Season    29   21   4.45  105  493.1   406   1.28

Ok, folks, I was very high on the Rea signing this offseason, but he's been better than I expected. He's been similar to Javier Assad, but with more stuff and fewer walks. Although his style of pitching doesn't impress most analytical systems, and he gets under-appreciated by WAR measurements, Colin is getting the job done. He gets quality starts, wins, low ERA, and is looking healthy and reliable. His ERA only recently sagged a bit, but I think 3.2-3.5 ERA is still the "right target area" for Rea this season. He's playing his career best ball, but he's had a 3 year upward trajectory. Luckily, there's a $6 million player option on him for next year, although I doubt he exercises it. He's playing more like a $15 million pitcher (Boyd). I hope we can negotiate a contract extension, because he's proven his value. At his age (34), he only has ONE chance to make big money, which is NOW. My best guess is he would accept a 3 year, 35 million extension (2026-2028), and that would work nicely for both sides. His style of pitching doesn't rely on power, so he could lose 1 MPH on his fastball and not suffer much. However, he can't expect a higher annual value unless it is a shorter deal.

Verdict: Rea can temporarily be the 3rd guy up, but I'd be much happier if he was our long term #4.  

#4 Cade Horton 

                                           W  L     ERA    G     IP      SO   WHIP
2025 Regular Season     2    0    4.40    3    14.1    10    1.40
Career Regular Season    2    0    4.40    3   14.1    10    1.40

The good news is that Cade Horton is flashing brilliance and showing us his plus pitches. His xERA is 3.39 (across two games), and that feels a bit low compared to his potential. He doesn't walk batters, he generates high chase rates, and he's got plus velocity, with a fastball that hovers around 95-98.  He's got a full arsenal of good pitches.The bad news is that he's a 23 year old rookie who got rushed to the majors a bit earlier than expected. Sure, he got roughed up in his first start, but that doesn't concern me one bit. unlike Ben Brown, Horton has a sufficiently complex game plan, which is becoming necessary for the best results in the majors. Is this the guy to fill Steele's Shoes?

Verdict: Yeah, this is our new #2 starter for next season. Give him a few more games to work out the major league level of competition, then watch him gradually soar. He's got what it takes to produce a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP in the 1 to 1.1 range. Do NOT demote him unless he NEEDS to be demoted.

#5 Jameson Taillon

                                           W     L     ERA    G    GS   IP         SO    WHIP
2025 Regular Season       3      3    3.92    11    11     59.2    47    1.04
Career Regular Season    74    56   3.89  212  211   1167.0  1022  1.20

Look, he's "good enough", but he's not one of the top 3 post-season arms. You'd only start him if you were clearly ahead in the series and expecting to win on bats- like a game 5 situation where you are 3-1 ahead of the opponent. It is a bit funny listing Taillon as the #5 starter, and Horton as #4, because its still playing the opposite way so far, but that's how I feel currently. This is not to say Taillon sucks. not at all. He's doing his usual "sneaky good" thing. He's got a Whip near 1 flat. After today's game versus Colorado at Wrigley, I expect a 3.9 ERA. the fact of the matter is he just doesn't shut teams out- you almost always expect 2 or 3 runs on the board. For a high octane offense like ours, this is usually fine and dandy. However, Cade Horton is comparatively showing more potential for the occasional 0 and 1 run games. Taillon is a winner, though, and he can be expected to produce a better than .500 season for us, yet again. I just wish he would show us LAST YEARS' stuff instead of 2023-type stuff like he has so far this season. Taillon is a guy I wish we could trade, but I don't know what we would get back for him worth trading .... so I think he stays. 

Next Up (Swing? Trade?): Javier Assad

                                           W   L     ERA     G      GS    IP          SO      WHIP
Career Regular Season    14    11    3.40    70    47    294.0    248    1.34

 Assad has long frustrated statistically- he's pulled off much better results than his fundamentals imply. Basically, what this means is he's elite at forcing outs on balls in play rather than via strikeout, as well as being elite in stranding runners on base, especially runners who walked. Over the past two seasons, he's led the league in starting pitchers who outperform their xERA and FIP stats. Although nobody ever expects that sort of thing to continue long term, he could definitely remain ABOVE AVERAGE in these stats. Assad will be back in action just before the All-Star Break, although I'd hate to rely on him, given the circumstances. Frankly, he's not making a case for helping the team more than Cade Horton; however, he gives us hope of beating Ben Brown's results. I project him to be a low- 4's ERA type of performer in 2025. If he does seize the 5th rotation spot, Assad could be in line for about 16 starts in 2025. However, me and the entire fan base would rather see Assad traded as part of a package for a difference making arm. He's good trade material, given his consistently good performances and that he still has 3 more years of team control. 

Verdict: TRADE ASSAD and land somebody that scares opponents.  He, with a pair of prospects, would land an affordable elite arm on a rental deal; or, a pricier starter with 2-3 years of team control. 

#6 Ben Brown

                                           W  L     ERA    G     GS     IP      SO   WHIP  

  2025                                3    3    6.39    11    10    50.2    62    1.60
Career Regular Season    4    6    4.92    26   18  106.0   126    1.33

Sigh. Despite LEADING THE TEAM IN PITCHING WAR, Ben Brown has been exactly the disappointment we all expected. It all comes down to his 2-pitch arsenal, which simply doesn't play 80-100 pitches in the majors. Yes, his weird, lame changeup has some function, but only about 2-3 pitches a game, and only against changeup-vulnerable, mediocre batters. At a bare minimum, he must add at least 1 pitch he throws 15-20% of the time. I am perplexed he hasn't figured out a decent cutter by now- it need not be a GREAT cutter, only good enough to set up the heater by tunneling precisely like it but veering off course a few important inches to miss barrels. For a dominant 4-seam pitcher, it should be a rather easy task to slightly change his grip to get funky motion. Anyhow, the league has him figured out. Furthermore, he could improve his changeup with a grip change, too - that would make it viable for 5-10% use. Such a 4 pitch arsenal would make him a real starter.  

Verdict: BACK TO AAA. Learn a cutter, improve the changeup. Work out the kinks. come back when you're ready. Ben Brown can return triumphant next year, and still be under team control for several more. He's under team control through 2029, so really no big loss if he stays in AAA this year.  

SWING Chris Flexen

                                            W     L     ERA     G       GS     IP            SO    WHIP                
2025 Regular Season        2      0    0.00    6         0     10.1            6    0.87
Career Regular Season    32    49    4.87    159    110    658.0    472    1.48

Here's a guy that could be the ACE for the Colorado Rockies this season. (Haha- that's a savage burn!) Chris has been around quite a bit. He showed great promise with Seattle in 2021 and 2022, but fell off badly. He had a brief stint with the Rockies, followed by the White Sox. In both of those showings, Flexen really looked like a bottom dweller's junk pitcher. He lacks velocity- he's been throwing fastballs around 91. on the other hand, his mix of slurve/changeup/cutter pitches has played well recently. He's tightened up his command. Flexen is really playing his best ball this year, and I think he could see spot starts going forward. His xERA has been 3.41. Nobody can square him up or barrel his weird pitches. Chris's Baseball Savant graph is really worth a look-see (Check out Cade Horton while you're over there). since he added a cutter/sweeper (it runs extremely horizontally, yet at a brisk 87-89 MPH velocity), he's been mystifying batters. 

Verdict: This is our next-guy-up. Flexen should take Ben's spot until Imanaga returns. I'd rather take a guy who reliably pitches to weak contact right now than a high strikeout guy (Brown) who serves up multiple homers a game. With his new cutter-sweeper, he's a real tough egg to crack. 

HONORABLE MENTIONS  

 Three other guys are worth noting as potential swing starters: Brad Keller, Keegan Thompson, and Jordan Wicks. 

Brad Keller

Brad has shown us he's a highly capable bullpen piece. He's throwing 97, he's fooling hitters, and sustaining an impressive 5 pitch mix. Again, worth a look on Baseball Savant. He's made a case for being a starter in 2026. However, in the short run, he's too valuable as a bullpen piece for the Cubs- he's been one of the only reliable arms. I still want to see him used more in multi-inning appearances. There's been several games where I said aloud :"DONT TAKE HIM OUT! leave him in! he's dominating!" ....and then watched the next guy up blow it.  

Verdict: Please keep him in the bullpen ....but use him in multi-inning early appearances to really lock down a game. It'll be hard to watch him walk, but I don't see how we afford him long term (unless we let Colin Rea walk). He's likely to be signed to a multi-inning starting role elsewhere, and good for him! So let's burn him hard and bright while we can. 

Keegan Thompson 

Look, this guy has had a really bad luck run. a few years ago, he looked like he had a regular rotation spot for us. Then the injuries arrived. Ever since, he hasn't been quite the same. Or has he? Down in AAA this year, he's looked mighty, mighty good. Keegan has a 4 pitch mix (with a rare, firm changeup thrown in) that looks eerily similar to what I expect Ben Brown to develop for himself. The main difference is the velocity. Frankly, Brown should be taking notes from Thompson, but outperforming him with a similar pitch mix. I really think Thompson deserves to be starting SOMEHWERE For SOMEONE, but I don't see how he breaks our starting 5. He also lacks options, so his best chance to stick in the majors is as a full-time bottom rotation starter on a weaker club.  

Verdict: Trade him at the All-Star Break... perhaps as part of a package for a new backend bullpen arm. He's done a fine job rehabbing in AAA this year, and could immediately be a swing starter, or even #5, for a needy team with less depth than we have, like the Marlins. He's got more upside than a bullpen piece, and there's no room on our 26-man for yet another guy without options- unless we were to suddenly lose multiple guys (like, both Keller and Palencia going down). 

Jordan Wicks  

Here's a frustrating, frustrating pitcher. He looks great in small samples. He's got a nice 4-pitch mix with a sweeper, a good 4-seamer, a sinker, and great changeup. Also, he can bring back a curveball if that ever becomes useful again. And yet, Wicks routinely looks below average in the majors. What gives? For whatever reason, his secondary pitches have been absolute garbage at that level - major league batters are destroying both his sweeper and sinker whenever they are thrown in the strike zone. I have a feeling that he's telegraphing these pitches with his body language. Thus, he's mostly been relying on only two pitches- his 4-seamer and changeup- to get outs. He's under team control for many years to come, so again, there's no rush here. 

Verdict: He'll get another chance at the majors in 2026. Wicks must figure out why his sweeper - his intended 3rd best pitch - isn't playing well. Cracking that code is absolutely key to his success. He can use the sinker, and perhaps curve, only a few times a game just to force weak contact.   

 Conclusion: The Best Path Forward

I'm perfectly happy with Imanaga, Boyd, Rea, and Taillon, with Horton being a swing guy for this rookie run alongside Flexen. The 5th spot is really just being held for a mystery player yet to be named. Although we could "get by" with Assad, Horton, or Flexen, this is not that kind of year. This is a year to contend, and to make that happen will require a fresh starter, not to mention at least 1 elite arm to replace Hodge as the closer (Hodge has options -he can go down and come back up when the roster expands). I am hoping our real closer is David Robertson, actually- he's been waiting to sign until he knows who is contending. 

As far as who we trade for.... well, let's just say it won't be Sandy Alcantara, but beyond that, many strange things could happen. It is really hard to guess, but here's a few guys I would like to see in Cubbie Blue.....

1) Merrill Kelly 36, Diamondbacks. ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.02, FA 2026  

Kelly is about the lowest rank guy worth renting. The D-Backs are basically out of it already, given how tough their division is, and given their recent 3-game disaster against the Cardinals. All they need is a bad run of things over the next 20 games, and they're mathematically eliminated from contention. ITS A HELLISH DIVISION. They won't give up Gallen or Burnes, of course, but Merrill is really expendable. He's a firm step up from Assad in fundamentals, and provides more confidence for the postseason. He'd only cost a (prorated half of) $6 million, and he's having a very solid year. His 6 pitch mix fits well within the Cubs strategy, and yet his precise mix is not imitated by any other Cubs starter. It would probably be Assad plus an early-stage prospect, in exchange for Merrill plus an early-stage pitching prospect. Kelly would slot in as the #3 in status, just a hair below Boyd.   

2) Chris Bassitt 36, Blue Jays, ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.32, FA 2026

Here's a pricier option, at half of a $22 million dollar contract. The Jays are not contender this year, and they could really benefit from dumping his salary. Still, he could come fairly cheap because that price tag, and may be a straight 1-for-1 swap with a long-term starting arm like Assad. Throw in Keegan Thompson, perhaps, as an insurance policy. Bassitt has "winner" stuff and despite his elevated WHIP this year, would immediately become the clear new #2 guy in the rotation. Or, Vidal Brujan is available if they want him. 

3) Tyler Mahle, 30 Rangers, ERA 1.80, WHIP 1.03, FA 2026

Guess What? I'm continuing my theme of decent teams falling short of contention in 2025. The Rangers have lots of money tied up in Eovaldi and de Grom. They won't be able to bring back Mahle next year. He's costing them $11 million, but half a year of Mahle would be a nice addition for us. The rangers aren't thar far away from being mathematically eliminated, and their only hope is to trade back in pitching to trade up in hitting. Mahle is the one guy they can send out, and Assad is worthy enough to stabilize the back of the Rangers rotation for the future. Mahle would be a clear Cubs #2 and even contend for the ACE role!!!!  If they continue to suck royally at the plate, they will need to make major changes quickly. They are suffering at 2nd base (Semien), right field (Garcia), and designated hitter (Pederson) - all are expensive, big name players who should be doing better. Of all the "barely contending" teams, driven by pitching dominance, there's none out there who more desperately need ready-to-go hitters. Mahle could easily command $25+ million going forwards, and would be a rental only. 

Consider this possibility: we have GREG ALLEN stashed in AAA. He's hitting close to .900 OPS down there and fielding well. We also have Kevin Alcantara to trade... The Rangers could land Allen, Alcantara, Vidal Brujan, and Assad in exchange for Mahle and some reasonable replacement prospect.... This gives them options to play 2nd and challenge Semien for short term playing time (Brujan), and a pair of outfielders to fight for time at Center and Right field - one immediately this year in Allen, and one next year in Alcantara.  We seriously don't need Brujan on this roster anymore- we can just promote an outfielder and let Berti handle the infield utility role. Alcantara can attempt to help at DH as well. Assad provides long term financial relief in the starting rotation so they can spend that money on another hitter next year. However, to make all that work, the Cubs would need to return at least 1 serious prospect for a position of need- My best guess would be another bullpen lefty project.  

Verdict: Part with our #4 prospect Alcantara, and receive their #12 prospect Kohl Drake, who is a very SPICY lefty option for 2026 and beyond. Give up Allen, Brujan, and Assad. And Some Cash. Take Mahle. Then, sign David Robertson to close, if he's ready. This would be the approximate squad, if we could land it for the World Series in July.... 

POST-SEASON STARTERS
Imanaga L
Mahle
Boyd L

Game 4 options for post-season:

Rea 
Taillon


Closer/8th inning Setup (expanded roster): 
Robertson (CL 1- save situations)
Pressly (CL 2 - non-save situations)
Theibar L
Brasier
Palencia

Mid/long relief (expanded roster, in no particular order):
Hodge
Horton
Flexen
Keller
Pomerantz L