Hello Cubs World,

looks like we scooped up a lefty. I'm thrilled that the Cubs are pushing for 3 lefties in the pen- it is the next critical step towards fielding a top 10 bullpen. Most elite bullpens have 3 or 4 lefties, and the Cubs have been running with 1-2, while leaning heavily on righties that play well against both handed hitters. Well, as clever as that moneyball solution has been for saving a buck, it has a hard ceiling- for the Hoyer Cubs, Cubs struggle hard to crack a top 10 bullpen and sustain that ranking when they lack the full suite of swiss army tools in the shed. 

Genesis Cabrera was DFA'd by the elite Mets, who have the #1 pitching in the majors. Usually a team like that casts off one or two guys that become useful immediately - after all, that's how we landed Tom Cosgrove from the Padres, the other lefty we have parked in AAA. Cosgrove is one of the few optionable vet players, and the only optionable lefty, so Hoyer is hoarding him. In contrast, Cabrera has no remaining options; still, he has been an "average" bullpen arm across 7 seasons. Every year he tweaks his offerings, but recently made several large adjustments, and could be close to finding a strategy that really clicks.  Check out his Baseball Savant page to see why he's both worthy of a signing, but also not confidence- inspiring. 

How Good is Cabrera? 
Yeah, I like the IDEA of this guy.... but.... he's gonna need some pitch lab work to be reliable. He's got a great 5 pitch mix (see below), throws hard (96 sinker/97 4seam) except neither of those pitches are working. His biggest problem is his walk rate near 12%- it needs to be HALF that. Cabrera simply isn't landing his heaters in the strike zone enough, and when they do, they are right over the plate and a bit flat. On the other hand, 2 of his pitches are working in 2025 and also worked very well in 2024: his curve and his 90 cutter. Although his cutter lacks the rise you'd usually see in a top offering, it fools people. Both his cutter and his curve have a seemingly randomized pattern of break, although not wild; as a consequence, he can command both well AND cause confusion.  I think he can easily get better results by focusing on these two - throwing both pitches much more often seems a no-brainer. 

His sinker and 4-seamer are being pummeled, because he either throws a ball or a juicy strike.... once batters have seen both pitches, they tend to anticipate them well. 

Cabrera's Pitch Mix (** Denotes great pitch; * Denotes good pitch)
Sinker 30%  Curve 27%* 4 Seam 19% Cutter 19%** Splitter 5%*

My Suggestion: 
Cutter 40% Curve 35% 4 Seam 10% Splitter 10% Sinker 5% 

Basically the cutter and curve can be thrown for strikes all over the zone. The sinker (vs L) and splitter (vs R) can aim exclusively for the bottom corners, and attempt to force bad contact, especially when Cabera is ahead early in the count. His 4-seam works high and inside on righties, but is practically useless against lefties or in any other space. By focusing on junk primarily - only using the highest velocity pitches to paint a specific corner - he could be a nasty solution. 

Verdict
Cabrera immediately becomes the low leverage lefty of the pen. His signing helps to conserve the recently elite Theilbar + Pomeranz duo for when they are truly needed. This signing telegraphs to me that both Pomeranz and Theilbar will be heavily used in the 8th and 9th innings, whereas Cabrera may be an occasional opener against left-heavy top orders. 

We really needed a lefty in the pen with a complicated set of pitches. on the other hand, he needs serious adjustments, ASAP. I've been dying for a LH guy with a cutter-dominant profile, too. He's that guy- his cutter could be thrown 50 percent of the time, and still play well. 

If he can cut his walk rate in half, and wean off the ineffective sinker, he may be able to produce a sub- 3 ERA season.