Hello Cubs World,

let's skip right to it shall we?
The Stats keep fluctuating. Cubs keep putting up monster numbers of runs, efficiently. Their bullpen keeps cracking. But lets go head and finish a quick analysis to see the likelihood of sustained success for each player. 

General stats worth discussing (fundamentals that drive beyond WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS):

I provided Fangraphs rankings, minimum 90 plate appearances, for each players' xwOBA, Home Runs, and Defensive WAR contributions. one * Denotes a "difference maker" result in WRC+, and two ** denotes an all-star or elite result. Same for DefRank.

PCA, Hoerner, Swanson, Amaya, are all potential defensive all stars. Kelly and Happ are potential defensive difference makers.  

Using WRC+ as the primary indicator of hitting performance, Hoerner is the ONLY starter on the list who ISNT at least a difference maker; and, if you add in his high contact rate and baserunning, he's still quite valuable. Kelly, PCA, Tucker, Amaya, and Busch are all hitting in the All-Star range; however, Kelly, Tucker, and Busch are having down years defensively so far. 

Putting these two stats together, the clear All-Stars are PCA, Tucker, and Swanson, and the borderline All-Stars are Kelly and Amaya -however, as others have noted, the catcher position having a renaissance this year, and many teams have freakishly good results from their catchers, too. Neither Kelly nor Amaya is likely to hold off the tough competition. We can only rely on the bias of popular voting favoring the big market players to have a shot at catcher.  

            WRC+ xwOBA  xwRANK HR HRRANK DefRank

Kelly        183** .387**   #34         8    #43   #142*     

PCA        143**  .343*    #99        12   #8     #5**

Tucker     142** .405**   #18        11   #17   #223

Amaya     134*  .317      #175      4    #139  #54**

Busch      132*  .365*     #55        7    #62    #241

Suzuki     120*  .343*     #100     12    #13   #217

Swanson  117*  .364*    #56       10    #17   #66**

Happ        115*  .366*    #52         3             #155*

Hoerner     99    .310     #194       0            #40**

1) Carson Kelly WRC+ 183 (#4 in MLB). - He's not gonna crater, guys

STOCK FALLING 

Every time someone predicts Kelly to collapse, he puts up a multi-hit performance and draws walks supreme. He has had over 110 plate appearances and his fundamentals still look sharp. His xwOBA rank supports hish WRC+ : He's still hitting like the #34 guy in the Statcast fundamentals like exit velocity, exit angle, and hard hit rate. His 43rd home run rank is not statistically weird- it is exactly on pace. His defensive rank is a bit lower than last year, and so he has likely WAR support from this stat as the season wears on. We thought he was a GLOVE FIRST Catcher, lol. 

Verdict: Kelly will keep being a menace, although more in line with Busch, Suzuki, and Happ as the season goes on. They have similar xwOBA stats and all should end up with similar WRC+ results.  Although some have pointed out Kelly fell off a cliff in the last 10 games, with no homers and few hits, I don't fully agree it is a major regression. With these fundamentals, I project Kelly to finish the season with a WRC+ around 135, close to 20 home runs, with only about 350 plate appearances.

2) PCA WRC+ 143 (#37 in MLB). He's due for a regression unless he learns to TAKE A DAMNED WALK. 

STOCK FALLING (POOR WALK RATE UNSUSTAINABLE)

It is obvious that something is off here - PCA cannot keep chasing with the success rate that he's been having. Its unsustainable to have a bottom percentile chase rate and great results - hence his .343 xwOBA. His glove is obviously elite, and that keeps him in the hunt for a 10 WAR season. However, he is unlikely to sustain 143 WRC+, and even with some positive tweaks to his game, he'll regress to the same 130-135 range as most his top teammates are facing. 

Verdict: he surprised me and other with his elite home run results, but he can sustain a 35 HR pace. What he can't sustain is his batting average, and his on base percentage is too low for him to be a true stolen base threat for the leaderboards. I now predict he'll swipe 45-50 bags. 

3) Kyle Tucker +142 (#39 in MLB). He's due for a DEFENSIVE and OFFENSIVE surge. 

STOCK RISING (BATTING AVERAGE)

Tucker has been keeping pace with PCA in stolen bases for one reason: putting him to shame with an elite walk rate. He's been below projections at defense, so a positive glove correction will likely improve his chances for a 7 WAR season. The best news is that his xwOBA still supports an elite hitting outcome - he really should be hitting close to 1.0 OPS. 

Verdict: Tucker's gonna keep getting hot again. He's on pace for a career year with his first 40 HR and 40 SB results; however, he needs to bring back his batting average to around .300 to sustain a WRC+ of 140 or higher. I think he will. 

4) Miguel Amaya +134. This is the REAL Amaya.... but on a small hot streak. 

STOCK FALLING (BATTING AVERAGE)

Cubs fans have been waiting for him to blossom into the start that the management claims he should be. Well, here we are- its happening. He's playing like a top defender and he's among the top 10 hitters at his position currently. This is not fully sustainable, however. His xwOBA predicts a regression, and I think we all expect that he will cool off somewhat. But not drastically.

Verdict: I think a WRC+ of 115ish feels right for him in the long term. And that's all we need him to do. He has the same walk problem as PCA, but we really don't care, given that he's already somewhat outperforming expectations. 

5) Michael Busch +132. This is the REAL Michael Busch. Except the glove...

STOCK STEADY

Busch is almost exactly performing as I expected, and as his Statcast results support this. however, I expected 9 home runs- he's a bit off pace to reach the predicted 30 HR this season, but I think he would be there if he never sat for Justin Turner. As far as glove, he's middling, but he should improve. 

Verdict: A 130 WRC+ is sustainable, and with defensive progress he'll be a second-tier starter at first base, but not All-Star. 

6) Seiya Suzuki +120. Nah man, he's slumping. He'll be hot very very soon. 

STOCK RISING (BATTING AVERAGE)

Suzuki has a reverse set of fundamentals of Busch, resulting in higher slugging but low on base percentage. He has been as aggressive as PCA and Swanson this year, and I'm not sure it is the right overall strategy. His wxOBA is too low-bringing up his batting average would fix this. He needs to strike out less and land more base hits to catch Kyle Tucker. On the other hand, he's a league leader in RBIs, and if we were to move Suzuki back to 4th in the order (reversed with Busch), I'd be happier. 

Verdict: 35 HR, 120 RBI seems likely. Let him continue aim for RBIs and power, but move him to the 4 hole for maximum effect, and focus on a higher batting average. 

7) Dansby Swanson. +117.  Purrrrrfect. Keep doing this. 

STOCK RISING (DEFENSE)

I was worried early in the season, but he clearly fixed his fundamentals. He's striking out at a more normal rate now, and even walking a bit more. This could be a career year if he can sustain a higher walk rate and otherwise hold steady. His defense is coming back into shape, and he's making big plays. 

Verdict: He's on pace for 30 HRs, 90 RBS, 20 SBS, and a WRC+ of at least 120. That's excellent news. 

8 ) Ian Happ. +115. I need just a BIT MORE POWER, Captain.....

STOCK RISING (POWER)

Ian is doing a solid job focusing on OBP, as the leadoff guy. He's doing a good job playing a role late in games. He just started cold. The xwOBA tells us he's underperforming and has faced bad luck - particularly, he should have a couple more homers that were a bit shy. Given his history, though, we can expect him to have a strong second half and more power will show up. He's also been a non-factor in base stealing, although he historically puts up about 14 SB.

Verdict: although a WRC+ 130 is within reach, I don't expect it. But he''ll find his way back to a .800 OPS and 18 HRs on the season. And, he'll continue to make a case to stay at the leadoff hitter, with his reliably high OBP and amazing plate discipline. 

 9) Nico Hoerner +99... I mean, he's Nico Hoerner, but he could use a few XBHs....

STOCK STEADY

This guy has been leading the majors in glove from the 2B position - and that's his usual strength. He's also looking like he'll steal 40 bases if he gets more situational o opportunities. It doesn't help that he's hitting 8th, so let's be conservative and say 35 bases is likely. Also, he's usually about a 7 HR/year player, but he has zero. So that's at least 2 missing dingers this year. Putting just those HRs back on his numbers and he'd have about a +103 projection for the season.

Verdict: He's close to doing exactly what we expect him to do every year- be an average hitter with high contact, low power, and great running. He's worth about 20 million a year, and 15 of that is glove, but we pay him 11. 

CONCLUSION:

Although this was a high-level analysis, its good enough for a free blog, innit?

The major theme here is that wxOBA is a highly useful statistic for predicting long term trajectories. when compared against WRC+, which adjusts Runs Created for overall ballpark conditions, it does a great job of telling us who's got the profile to keep causing problems for opposing teams. 

For every riser on the Cubs, there's a faller, but not necessarily in the same amount or same statistical area. Overall we can expect PCA, Amaya, and Kelly to get slightly worse at the plate, but not dramatically so; and, we can expect Tucker, Happ and Suzuki to get noticeably better soon than they have been for May.  I would say the fallers are taking smaller steps than the risers from now until All-Star Break; however, injuries are the ever-resent x-factor that throws ANY prediction off. Let's hope the Cubbies stay healthy. 

Also, I would seriously reconsider the batting order. I have mostly agreed with the approach this year, however the stats are starting to reveal a few problems. First, Suzuki and Busch are "at least" backwards. Suzuki is a classic #4 hitter, swinging for the fences, and we could demote Busch to make room for Carson Kelly's extremely high walk rate and OBP. I get that we try to separate the lefties throughout the order, but sometimes this is simply working against the stats. Consider this option VS right handed starters, for better statistical results:

 VS RHP      REASONING FOR THIS SPOT

1 Happ S        Second best hitter in terms of plate discipline

2 Tucker L      BEST xwOBA and sustainable WRC+

3 Kelly/Amaya R HOT "SHORT TERM" OBP, SLG, OPS

4 Suzuki R       Highest RBI rate, but high KOs

5 Busch L        All around but slow- mid-high OBP, SLG

6 Swanson R   Second Cleanup - Like a Baby Suzuki

7 PCA L           "SECOND TUCKER" - low xwOBA, does it all well

8 Shaw R         balanced hitter but raw - slug or rally Swanson/PCA! 

9 Hoerner R    highest contact, best for extending PCA-driven rallies