Hello Cubs World, 

I've been thoroughly enjoying the North Side Baseball articles. As usual, they provide the best information NOT behind a paywall. Lucky fans. Seriously, everyone should try to promote the site and expand the readership. And I encourage site donors to push for more site marketing somehow! Thanks.   

Back to our regularly scheduled programming. (For you kids younger than 40, this was a thing that was said when a radio or tv channel was interrupted by an emergency technical issue). 

Last article, I gloated about how close to accurate my team-level predictions where in the off-season for team WAR and team performance rankings. Yay me. Woo. Ok ok.

In this blog piece, I'll do a player-by-player analysis of the top 9 position players, at game 46 - after putting up 20 runs in the last 2 days against the White Sox, some guys are getting boosts. Those in a slump recently are HIGHLY likely to rebound in the next 30 days. so, we are at a point of "extreme oscillation" around a converging trend for each player. Rather than just assume everyone will continue today's percentages forever, I'll double down on some longer-term views about player capabilities.

 I will still avoid any prediction updates about Justin Turner, Vidal Brujan, Moises Ballesteros, Jon Berti, or any other call-up players. It is kinda pointless with such small data.

I see nothing to "firm up" my predictions about the fate of "43rd" base- I still see Jon Berti as the main player there until Shaw returns, and likely to hold down his utility position even after Shaw returns.  Thus, I expect the bench to become Brujan, Berti, and "XXX" mystery slugger to replace Turner, with Shaw manning 3d sometime soon (but hopefully not rushed). I haven a much higher value on Berti than most do- and I'm sticking to that argument. 

The entire bench has been what you expect from any bench - a roulette of "meh", with some lucky and unlucky moments.. Indeed, in general I think you should only make predictions about the starters during the first half of the season, because the bench WAR contributions are too volatile, close to zero, and replaceable *****************  

CUBS WAR LEADERS
Note that team rank here doesn't include pitchers - but Brown is currently above Hoerner and Boyd above Happ
Note that Fangraphs rank DOES include pitchers! The following WAR projections (in parentheses) assume that players "split the difference" between their current performance and their historical performance. In some cases, this has little effect on player rankings, but in other cases it's noticeably a boost. 

TEAM RANK   NAME        WAR(Projection)   Fangraphs Rank (Projection) 
1  Pete Crow-Armstrong         3 (10)            #2  (#4) Superstar            

2 Kyle Tucker                           2 (7.4)           #15  (#15) Superstar

3 Dansby Swanson                1.5 (5.5)          #40 (#35) All-Star 

4 Carson Kelly                       1.3 (3.9)           #67 (#75) All-Star 

5 Nico Hoerner                        1 (3.8)           #126 (#80) All-Star 

6 Michael Busch                     .8 (3)              #174 (#125) Difference maker

7 Ian Happ                              .7 (3.3)           #187 (#105) Difference maker

8 Miguel Amaya                    .7 (3)              #202 (#130) Difference maker

9 Seiya Suzuki                        .6 (3.2)          #247 (#110) Difference maker

WAR Rankings- What they Mean

There are (30X26) = 780 26-man roster players in MLB, and 1200+ total players see the field every year. 

0-30 Superstar (even non-fans may have heard of these people)
31-80 All-Star quality (household names)
81-200- Difference Makers (household names on roster of one's home market)
201-300 Solid Starter (expected #3 rotation pitching range for WAR).
301-450 Average Position Player - Jobs are safe short-term, hard to replace cheaply. Setup pitchers. 
451-600 Low Leverage - not adequate for starters, but decent results for mid-relief or utility players. 
601+ Replacement range - job is at high risk.
781+ On warning: Must improve promptly to stay in Majors

Historical Trends in WAR

Some years, the league is flatter in WAR, with few high-tailed performers over 6. In other years, there's an elite cluster of top WAR players in the 8-11 range. 2025 looks like a year where several players are racing for 10 WAR status: Aaron Judge, PCA, Bobby Witt, Sohei Otahni, and Fernando Tatis are all pushing for MEMORABLE performances. Anything over 10 is rare in baseball history- that's Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth level action. And yet here we are with 5 players pushing for 10.  

Cubs Summary: Locked and Loaded!

Every 2025 Cubs position starter EXCEPT 3B is projected as a plus contributor: A superstar (2), all-star (3), or difference maker (4).

In recent years, one of the best overall hitting lineups was the 2023 Atlanta Braves. They didn't have the full level of defense as the Cubs. They had 2 superstar WAR guys (Acuna, 9.1, Olson, 6.6), 3 All-Stars (Riley 5.1, Murphy 4.9, Albies 4.1), and 3 Difference Makers (Harris 3.8, Ozuna, 3.2, Arcia, 2.4).  Their second catcher, D'Arnaud, had avg .7 WAR.
SUPERSTAR
PCA > Acuna
Tucker > Olson
ALL-STAR
Swanson = Riley
Kelly < Murphy (defensive disadvantage)

Hoerner < Albies

DIFFERENCE MAKERS
Happ < Harris
Suzuki = Ozuna

Busch  > Arcia

Amaya > (D'Arnaud)

Due to Cubs' superior defense and baserunning, overall WAR expectations are SIMILAR for these two lineups..... 


Conclusion

In part 3, I'll analyze each of these 9 players to see what the expectations are for their season-level stats. 

In part 4, I'll do the starting top 6 pitchers (Imanaga, Boyd, Rea, Taillon, Brown, Horton). I project Imanaga to return before June 10, and Assad to return for 2 appearances before the All-Star Break -although I expect Assad to start in the bullpen and fight for a rotation spot again.  

I won't bother with bullpen details until after the All-Star Break.... history tells me it's not worth that effort so early in the season.