ryanrc

the #1 fan mistake is overspending at beginning of a season, Fans rarely grasp that you dont need overkill. any insurance wins are very expensive. YToure better off waiting, letting things evolve, see where you stand, and make necessary roster moves exactly when you know what you need. people get hurt. wait to see what happens. it could be a new starter. a new closer, really, any position could become a position of need midseason. If you already spent the money on a backup 1b/dh, you are paying a ton of money per at bat for a guy whos not gettin gmuch work- on an at bat basis, you're paying the guy like hs a 30 million dollar superstar just to pinch hit. No- have flexibility, make the big move later! Betting on injuries to suzuki and busch is a bad bet. they are both better hitters Than turner now, and you'l' wish you had that money back.

yep, and thats usually the price of a FULLTIME DH, not a 150 at bat utility pinch hitter who cant even catch anymore.

THE PRICETAG!!!! Justin turner made over 13 million last year! I dont think these folks are grasping the pricetag for this guy, or how he would rarely even get any serious opportunities to hit with our stacked lineup. if you wanted to make good use of that kind of money, you wouldnt send it on a backup 1b/dh. No team in the elague has an overpaid bench backup at THOSE SPECIFIC POSITIONS 🙂 it simply not a thing you do. youd be better off holding hte money and making a late season splash with a BIG move.

I agree with steamer- 106 is a good projection. but after you subtract his poor glove and his roster hogging spot, its not a pretty picture. He belongs in Seattle, I think, where he fits better.

if all we wanted was a DH, and we had unlimited money, and we didnt have Suzuki, as I said, yes, sign Justin turner. If we had an injury, sign justin turner. Howver, there is only one thing i dont have on my bingo card as a good roster idea: a players who is a pure dh/1b sitting on teh bench getting 100 at bats at only DH/1b, subbing for only Busch s uzuki, being paid premium money. I guarantee you some other team has more use for him than we are. That is the whole point. This is a matter of roster chemistry, timing, and situation. I would be SHOCKED if we signed turner and outbid other teams, simply to have him deliver 100-150 at bats. As I said, the real issue his is roster fit. and again, we have been cursed with bad play at 3rd, and i would HATE to repeat that for a third season in a row just on the hopes a 40-41 year old guy has an up season, while he blocks Matt Shaw and had a negative overall war contribution at the hot corner compared to a BErti who has a positive WAR contribution at the same position.

according to my AI autopilot, only 1 major player recently had an up year after age 40, and it was Albert Pujols. And he wasnt playing at one of the lest hitter friendly parks for power right handers in baseball (wrigley). Albert Pujols: 2020: .622 OPS 2021: .717 OPS 2022: .895 OPS But the next best example I can find is Nelson Cruz, who hit .682 OPS. If Turner is an impact player off the bench this year, call me wrong, but the odds are terribly low.

Checking In on the Aging Curve | FanGraphs Baseball

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nah man, When a guy is 40, you respect father time. his 2024 sesaon wasnt very good. you dont take a smooth average

1) Meh. all the things you describe is hard if you're in high school, but not hard for Ian Happ or Jon Berti. These are consummate professionals with elite glove and baseball IQ who play almost every position good enough for gap coverage, and such minute errors won't cost the cubs a season anymore than playing crappy gloves at 3b would. There's a reason most teams dont have a roster spot dedicated to a backup first baseman with a long resume at the job- good players are RARELY disasters at that job for a small sample size. The Yankees ignored your advice in the postseason and almost won a world series. And Berti did great. no problems. And Berti is on our roster. and that guy has amazing coaches behind him who think he's better at the job than you may think. Craig Counsell has it under control here- its a team full of amazing fielders, and the thought that none of them can do the job for a a mere 5-10 games is silly. 3) as I said, if you truly need a guy for more than 10 games at first, there's no shortage of first basemen to be found. The position is fairly cheap these days. Theres a long list of platoon type and multipositional trade candidates, as well as AAA guys out there. Counsell Woundn't have let Mervis go if he was a real rare asset we needed to hoard. 4) This is REALLY a conversation about roster spots, and wasting them on guys who wont get any at bats anyhow. Youre' hyperfocusing on the theory that we need a GREAT first baseman sitting on the bench, waiting for his callup, in the majors. If we had a 350 million dollar budget, sure. But don't waste a critical roster spot when you don't actually want to use that backup first baseman for any other purpose than first base. Every other player on the 26 man is STRICTLY BETTER at what they do than Justin Turner at their day to day job in 2025. Berti is better at 3rd, Suzuki is strictly better at DH, and no, Turner wont play at 2nd when Triantos is the emergency option there. Why waste the spot for a guy who is strictly inferior in all situations than what we already have? Thats' the prime story here. 5) Just to make my point clear: I'll bet you $1000 that Dansby Swanson is a better first baseman than Pete Alonso with only 30 days of practice. Thats how much of a premium we put on defensive jobs up the middle. If Busch can play 1b, Swanson can do it in his sleep on pure intuition. He's one of the best athletes in the WORLD. He's a FRIGGING GENIUS. He can figure out first base. Not that I'm arguing we should put him there, but Ian Happ is likely a better 1B than Michael Busch by the end of 1 full season. AS I said, Ive played the job, and you're exaggerating its difficulty. Of all sports positions ive every played, it was by far the easiest for an intuitive athlete. AS Berti said, He picked Rizzo's brain for help and advice on strategies, but many of those things were "stretch goals" rather than just "doing the job ok"

Here is why 1) I used to want the guy, 2)would be "ok" with it, 3) but really don't want Turner, and 4) teally don't care about Backup 1b right now. 1) I wanted Turner when he was available, 2 years running. I get your interest in the guy, as his bat has been unusually reliable for a long time. Still, the clear trend is down towards a season like Andrew McCutcheon, who only is the fulltime DH at Pittsburgh because of his huge hometown draw. 2) I would be solidly "ok" with it if we had a camp injury to Busch or Shaw and he was available still. But as a full season roster spot just in case? Nope. 3) Turner had a meh season in 2024... he was very close to league average. But his glove has declined to pretty much ONLY FIRST BASE. He's a deep liability anywhere else. We dont need him at DH as we have Suzuki. Turner's bat is on a current trend to be NO BETTTER THAN Canario or Caissie anyhow. That's not exciting. and blocks a roster spot for younger guys on the hope he has a last hurrah. This usually doesnt work out at age 40+, especially at a ballpark where he projects to be substantially worse than his last two gigs. 4) I really don't care about a 1b backup for many reasons. Its a low value glove position, so mistakes arent too costly over a short stretch of gameplay. Theres a short list of special polays that an experienced Rizzo type can pull off that steals an out or run, that a Berti can't figure out - which is why Berti was suitable when Rizzo was out. Second, good defenders can play it in a pinch. Happ, Suzuki, Ballesteros, or Berti can handle a Busch 10 to 30 day IL stint and do fine. Shoot, even Owen cCaissie would give me more to be excited about- give him some minor league reps and be ready. In fact, I think Caissie projects at that spot. I've played first myself, and I can assure you that any serious defender can handle it. It is the least "niche" position on the field, and 90 percent of the job can be learned in a matter of weeks if youre already a MLB caliber fielder. puit your foot on the bag, catch the ball, and hope there's no weird funky unusual bunt or popup situation. Ian Happ or Berti can do it WELL guys. Furthermore, if he was hurt for longer than that, the Cubs could Trade for one or even pick up a sidelined free agent. Its a position with a large surplus of guys looking for a job right now, and a dozen serious trade candidates. Finally, its rare that a prime age first baseman is ever "out for the season" anyhow. The odds are firmly in our favor. Again Turner would be a great option if and only if we needed a full time guy there to cover for a season ending injury. My pick for the short term 10 day il guy on the roster is Berti. If he commits 1 error, and misses 2 pickoff opportunities in 10 games, i really dont EFFING CARE. I'm more concerned, honestly, with adding a first baseman for AA Tennessee. I think Long is getting the AAA promotion, and by midseason may be able to cover the injury backup job. But we really dont have a guy to cover Long's backside, which means we need another hot prospect further down there. My idea is we pick up a guy off roster cuts, as the options percolate, and aim for the youngest, high upside guy we can find in the wreckage. .

Hello Cubs world, like everyone else, I'm curious how this final roster shapes up. Given the short amount of time remaining to make deals before the season starts, I'll just wait and react rather than make any more predictions or analysis of the roster composition. Assad and Birdsell Injury News Fans were a bit surprised to hear about these two injuries at this exact moment, given that the action is pretty light in early February. Javier Assad is facing an oblique injury and Birdsell a shoulder injury. Both of these are prime problem areas for a pitcher, but most such injuries aren't season-ending. The average time missed for an Oblique injury is 26 days; however, there's a fair amount of spread on that, with more daunting strains in the 8 week range. For Shoulders, the spread is wider- its often in the 2-12 week range but in the worst case scenario can be season ending. The good news is that reporters usually know right away if its severe, and neither pitcher has been discussed as if its catastrophic. Thus, we can hope these are in the usual range. Injury Rates are... Bad Lately Last year, 30% of starters and 25% of bullpen guys spent time on the injured list. The Cubs had some of the worst luck; consequently, this offseason, they elected to absolutely stack the Iowa Cubs with a long list of average-to-plus talents at advanced pre-arbitration and arbitration stages. 40 Man players like Assad, Cody Poteet, Jordan Wicks, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, and Ethan Roberts could find an immediate role on the 26 man roster for needy teams; however, they are all likely to be "stashed" in Iowa. If the Cubs are lucky with injuries, they may struggle to move their excess talent and instead just cut a bunch of guys. And, that would be bad roster management. Super Depth, Super Waste? Hoyer ensured he had TWO ENTIRE SECOND TEAMS of quality bullpen options sitting in AAA, at the small tradeoff grabbing a couple of impact position players for the farm crowd to enjoy, or upgrading the MLB bench over outfielder Alexander Canario. It may be the deepest pitching squad in many, many years. They also run a high risk of wasting valuable capital that could be better spent on fewer, higher upside players. For example, I wanted two top free agents like Tanner Scott and David Robertson, as opposed to four next-level projected guys in Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan, Caleb Thielbar. I like what Hoyer got, especially Brasier and Theilbar, but it also makes the depth seem far less useful. Also, I'm still amazed how few lefties are in this assortment. Wicks, Little, and retread Hughes is too shallow to back up the lonely Theilbar in the pen. In comparison, the Braves have FOUR IMPACT lefties in their pen and as many backups in their AAA squad. Hoyer's still in a position where any lefty injury to depth immediately prompts him to grab another one. Well Seasoned Depth, Short Runways Another tradeoff is that the depth is really short term. Sure, the minors are packed to the gills with optionable players, but many of them have short runways remaining on team control, as a side effect of these guys being well seasoned and yet optionable. Hoyer's traded away several valuable pitching prospects in the past two years and created a tight squeeze for 2025-2026. Hoyer is not merely EXPECTING some injures, he is HOPING HARD that several key guys go down so he can burn innings for these low-price assembled weapons rather than cut them for no return! "Get the injuries out the way early?" Let's not be too Superstitious Common sense dictates that NOBODY wants a star player missing any time at all. However, this "well, at least its over with" logic is quite weak. Sure, if this was a blister on a finger or a giant shin bruise, we don't really care much. Prime injuries to a pitching arm or core muscle group can really hinder the preparedness of a pitcher. They can lose speed when sidelined; or, lose rhythm on their breaking stuff. These setbacks can continue weeks after they get back in action ....just ask Kyle Hendricks! He seems unable to pitch well unless in perfect health, and yet the Cubs stubbornly would trot him out anyway, year after year, after his predictable early setbacks. Brandon Birdsell's Situation Brandon's shoulder injury is likely to be the bigger problem for the long run. This is a critical development year for him and for Cade Horton. Both of these guys are within spitting distance of a MLB job by mid-season. Unfortunately, Cubs pitchers love to have their problems during such years. In 2024 we had serious setbacks with young starting candidates Wicks, Brown, and Horton, not to mention a long list of bullpen guys. If Birdsell as a serious shoulder injury, he may not be ready for any 2025 time in the Friendly Confines. Let's hope for the best, as he projects to be a valuable late-season injury sub for the majors. Javier Assad's Situation: Blessing in Disguise? On the other Hand, Hoyer's probably GLAD for Assad's injury. Hear me out on this. It is clear that major league hitters are starting to figure him out, at least in the sense that they aren't falling for his junk pitches anymore. The guy needs time to adjust. His WHIP is unacceptably high and his usually good results throwing complex junk are gradually declining to a projected 4.5 to 5 ERA range. As I've said elsewhere, he's got 6 pitches but no dominant strikeout pitch, particularly against righties. In 2024, he looked like a back-end rotation guy from the 1980s. He needs to sort that out quickly so he can recover a 3.5 ERA profile. There's many arguments that an injury could work out for the best. Assad has options remaining, but I don't want to burn one right at Opening Day. Sitting on the injury list for a few weeks would give us added flexibility. Tommy Hottovy could give him an extra-long recovery from an oblique so they can see what they have in their other guys. He can study his options with pitching guru Tyler Zombro while he's waiting. When back, Assad may have some games as a long reliever to test out what he's working with. If the adjustments aren't immediately clicking, THEN he pulls an option so Assad can sort out the details in AAA. But if his stuff does click, he can save it for when he needs to make space for other hot, rising guys. All in all, Assad's injury almost seems scripted, as if the Cubs had a hunch that they'd need an extra starter right from the start of camp. With their early season start this year, Counsell can breathe easy that there's no shortage of options. We all expect several more guys to hit roadbumps before Opening Day, but of all starters to be missing time, Assad was THE GUY you'd want to see "strategically" sidelined.

i have a feeling this is a Trueblood Prophecy that comes true

Lets' keep it simple: Boston is the only spender here, who would love Hoerner. But I really really dont understand moving Hoerner right now. Common sense dictate you wait for the injuries to hit, and go for the big pitcher trade midseason, not now. BURN THE DEPTH, Dont avoid using it. Let arms get hurt. If we dont go for Bregman, keep the money necessary to pull off s midseason starter trade. That's conventional wisdom. Nico is a top 3 second baseman in war and perhaps the best glove this year, if he's healthy. he's a bargain, and not worth moving to add 1 WAR in the rotation, and lose more than 1 WAR at second base. I was openminded about a preseason starter trade before we landed Brasier. Now, i think its obvious we wait for a bit. My theory is that if we did get Bregman, we would need to move a bullpen arm or two - Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather would net something and clear 2.5 million, and if a deal were creatively structured and packaged, we could get more than that- it would be "good enough" to make budget without moving Hoerner. To make all that work, Bregman would take a backloaded deal. Furthermore, even though they are both high upside guys, neither has a real history of living up to it. Their power pitching style is injury riddled, and our depth makes them expendable. We could avoid avoid any starter worries if Cade Horton, Brandon Birdsell, Cody Poteet, or Ben Brown steps up and bumps whomever is faltering or down. Maybe one of them turns out to be the next impact pitcher. I am very high on all four of them. Horton and Birdsell could make it to #2 in the rotation at best. Ben Brown really feels like a reliever for 2025, but in the long run could be a #3 starter with 90 pitches per appearance as his hard ceiling. He just doesn't have elite arm endurance because of his style. I think Poteet will be slightly better than Rea by 2026, once he masters his offerings with Zombro's help. He's got a ceiling as 4th starter, whereas Rea is likely a desirable league swingman for the long run. I would really like Matthew Trueblood to deep analyze Poteet and give his point of view.

dude,. I am so glad you said this. We basically have an entire second bullpen that's as good as the first. Insane bullpen depth. Our rotation depth is also excellent, if you count Horton and Birdsell as midseason possibilities to dip their toe in the pool .

I am a bean counter, meaning that I realistically work with the team philosophy we have and attempt to argue for the best "under tax" team possible and the long term build. Keep in mind we were in a rebuild period, and now we are projected as the third best record in baseball, even before we resolve the rest of our budget (and, that record is largely based on division opponents being so weak). its not fair to Hoyer to ignore the rebuild period, and that it was sensible to take a few years to build a long term winner than a win-now squad that sucks again immediately.

however, let me push back on Berti. This is a guy who produced 2.4 WAR TWICE in the recent past (2 seasons). He can run like Hoerner, and his glove isnt THAT much worse. That's a GREAT emergency option in a league where 2.4 WAR is typical for a starting 2nd baseman on a small market team. Berti was an absolute steal, and I can't understand why we got him for less than 5 million- that's his worth as a utility player. We got him for 2-3 million depending on incentives. On the other hand, Shaw's the real answer at 2nd (not 3rd). 3rd is not his natural position. I could see him getting reps at both places as a rookie. I'm still not convinced we start Shaw at 2nd if Bregman fails to sign. I still think we sign DeJong to play 3rd.

that's basically what I just said on several prior discussions (and kinda got lectured about how that cant be true)/.

with a lineup like this, Im not worried. Happ Tucker Bregman ****MUCH BETTER THAN SHAW*** Suzuki Busch PCA Swanson Hoerner Kelly Imanaga Steele XXXXX MIDSEASON UPGRADE BETTER THAN TAILLION Boyd Rea ....etc etc etc. Where's the fear? This is legit better than Shaw + Taillon in every way. It gives the GM more total WAR, more roster flexibility, and money midseason, than to pay 17 million for 1 measly war on the mound, sacrifice 2 war in the field/batters box, and a superior postseason rotation.... its a win/win, as is said- better total team for postseason, and you dont need to sacrifice a single future player to do it.

yeah, as i said, none of that bothers me one iota, because we would have the money and resources to get another pitcher, silly. i already said so. we cvan upgrade over taillon if youre patient enough to wait for misdeasonl, and have a BETTER postseason team not a worse one.

I disagree, there are many ways to make it work. First, you backload Bregman a bit. Second, you trade away a couple of our insanely long list of pitchers. Nate Pearson, for example, is expendable. He had a very tiny sample of great pitching, and he is high risk. That gives you JUST enough cushion. We can reclaim a couple million by sending a prospect and a pitcher off. There's tricks we can do. Or, my favorite option: as injures pop up around the league, trade Taillon instead of Hoerner. I understand he has a no -trade clause, but he may get the chance to move up a spot in the rotation for another competitive team/

Here's some more arguments: you paying 17 million dollars for a "maybe" 1 WAR bump over Assad or Poteet. Thats very expensive. on the other hand, Nico is worth significantly more than Taillon in WAR , for a much lower price. It would be pretty mindless to trade away Hoerner to Preserve 1 WAR in pitching for a potential 1-2 WAR drop at 2nd base in 2025, and a small financial return. The dollars dont make sense.

I vehemently disagree on several counts. ADD THE WAR: We are quibbling over maybe 1-2 WAR difference between Taillon and Assad, or Taillon and Poteet. That's not a problem at all, if it means we get a 4 WAR Bregman. We have a crapton of backend starters right now that other teams would be happy to have, and the gap between them and "mid tier" starters is literally 1 measly WAR, versus a 2+ WAR Gap for Bregman/Shaw at 3rd, mainly due to teh glove difference. Furthermore, a midseason starter acquisition will ERASE the WAR difference between Taillion and Assad/Poteet, and furthermore will give us a better postseason pitcher than Taillon. Its a win-win. We come out ahead, not behind. And, we get to keep EVERYONE in 2026 except Taillion, who we will replace anyhow with a Cade Horton, or Brandon birdsell, or even Jordan Wicks. So many 2026 options, so many improving players.... Pitchers are not as reliable or worth quibbling over 1 WAR as a position player. their serious injury rate is approaching 40 percent! only your top 2 aces are worth sacrificing the elite multi tool sluggers. All other starters are just "get er done, dont get hurt" these days. The quality gap between a #3 and #5 is low on most competitive teams.

Option 4: We trade Jameson Taillon instead of Nico Hoerner - ideally for a prospect who can cover first base as Busch's AAA backup, but a pitcher or catcher works as well. We sign Bregman, and instead of trading our best prospects to San Diego, we wait for the ASB. We then wait until mid-season to find a stud pitcher from a fire sale. Using the Taillon money, we would have about 20-25 million free to land a true difference maker, with cash left over for other moves if necessary. Using this approach, we can land a Dylan Cease level pitcher midseason for a lower cost. Our early season rotation would lean on innings eaters Rea and Poteet/Assad at the back of the rotation, and expecting injury to at least one major starter, our midseason acquisition would be a high stuff pitcher having a healthy season. Having moved Taillon, we can keep Tucker in 2026 AND Bregman AND Hoerner. Keep in mind 10 million in dead/retained money falls off the books, the tax level goes up 3 million, and so does the Pressly/Brasier contracts. Those shifts free up 26 million, in addition to the 20 million carryover from 2025 - that is more than enough to convert Tucker's 17 million contract into a 40 million contract, and also sign a couple of new bullpen arms or renew only 1 of Pressly/Brasier. Given the current market, Taillon is desirable at his current contract, which is fair and close to right-priced, compared to some lesser 2024 arms that are being paid 20 million plus.

I still don't know why anyone would trade Nico when he's a helluva bargain. There's no need to move Nico to gain Bregman. If that's what it came down to, then it would be a no on Bregman. They are projected to produce similar WAR this year, and Nico is doing so on a team-friendly salary well below market. I see no reason to trade Suzuki either. He's a top 20 league bat (19th in OPS last year) with high contact and balanced splits! That's hard to replace! We could move Jameson Taillon, if it came down to moving someone for money. He's close to being "right priced", so it would be mostly a salary dump, but we could really use a shiny new 1b prospect. And, we are deep enough in starting pitchers that we could wait until mid-season to replace him with a new stud. People are totally forgetting about Cody Poteet, and the fact that he projects as well as Colin Rea NOW, and could easily have the upside of a Taillon in the future. And people should be optimistic that Assad develops a better strikeout pitch, like, this year, to solidify his mid-rotation potential. Still, I would GREATLY prefer to backload Bregman and just roll with what we have after signing him - for example, deferring part of his 2025 salary. Besides, we always have some dead/retained money falling off to aid the future budget. in 2026, 10 million - which will be more than enough to make a couple of bullpen moves next year. Other than that, our roster is already complete for 2026.