Hello Cubs world, 

like everyone else, I'm curious how this final roster shapes up. Given the short amount of time remaining to make deals before the season starts, I'll just wait and react rather than make any more predictions or analysis of the roster composition. 

Assad and Birdsell Injury News

Fans were a bit surprised to hear about these two injuries at this exact moment, given that the action is pretty light in early February. Javier Assad is facing an oblique injury and Birdsell a shoulder injury. Both of these are prime problem areas for a pitcher, but most such injuries aren't season-ending. 

The average time missed for an Oblique injury is 26 days; however, there's a fair amount of spread on that, with more daunting strains in the 8 week range. For Shoulders, the spread is wider- its often in the 2-12 week range but in the worst case scenario can be season ending.

The good news is that reporters usually know right away if its severe, and neither pitcher has been discussed as if its catastrophic. Thus, we can hope these are in the usual range.

Injury Rates are... Bad Lately

Last year, 30% of starters and 25% of bullpen guys spent time on the injured list. The Cubs had some of the worst luck; consequently, this offseason, they elected to absolutely stack the Iowa Cubs with a long list of average-to-plus talents at advanced pre-arbitration and arbitration stages. 40 Man players like Assad, Cody Poteet, Jordan Wicks, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, and Ethan Roberts could find an immediate role on the 26 man roster for needy teams; however, they are all likely to be "stashed" in Iowa. If the Cubs are lucky with injuries, they may struggle to move their excess talent and instead just cut a bunch of guys. And, that would be bad roster management.

Super Depth, Super Waste? Hoyer ensured he had TWO ENTIRE SECOND TEAMS of quality bullpen options sitting in AAA, at the small tradeoff grabbing a couple of impact position players for the farm crowd to enjoy, or upgrading the MLB bench over outfielder Alexander Canario.  It may be the deepest pitching squad in many, many years. They also run a high risk of wasting valuable capital that could be better spent on fewer, higher upside players.

For example, I wanted two top free agents like Tanner Scott and David Robertson, as opposed to four next-level projected guys in Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan, Caleb Thielbar. I like what Hoyer got, especially Brasier and Theilbar, but it also makes the depth seem far less useful. Also, I'm still amazed how few lefties are in this assortment. Wicks, Little, and retread Hughes is too shallow to back up the lonely Theilbar in the pen. In comparison, the Braves have FOUR IMPACT lefties in their pen and as many backups in their AAA squad. Hoyer's still in a position where any lefty injury to depth immediately prompts him to grab another one. 

Well Seasoned Depth, Short Runways 

Another tradeoff is that the depth is really short term. Sure, the minors are packed to the gills with optionable players, but many of them have short runways remaining on team control, as a side effect of these guys being well seasoned and yet optionable. Hoyer's traded away several valuable pitching prospects in the past two years and created a tight squeeze for 2025-2026. Hoyer is not merely EXPECTING some injures, he is HOPING HARD that several key guys go down so he can burn innings for these low-price assembled weapons rather than cut them for no return!

"Get the injuries out the way early?" Let's not be too Superstitious 

 Common sense dictates that NOBODY wants a star player missing any time at all. However, this "well, at least its over with" logic is quite weak. Sure, if this was a blister on a finger or a giant shin bruise, we don't really care much. Prime injuries to a pitching arm or core muscle group can really hinder the preparedness of a pitcher. They can lose speed when sidelined; or, lose rhythm on their breaking stuff. These setbacks can continue weeks after they get back in action ....just ask Kyle Hendricks! He seems unable to pitch well unless in perfect health, and yet the Cubs stubbornly would trot him out anyway, year after year, after his predictable early setbacks.   

Brandon Birdsell's Situation  

Brandon's shoulder injury is likely to be the bigger problem for the long run. This is a critical development year for him and for Cade Horton. Both of these guys are within spitting distance of a MLB job by mid-season. Unfortunately, Cubs pitchers love to have their problems during such years. In 2024 we had serious setbacks with young starting candidates Wicks, Brown, and Horton, not to mention a long list of bullpen guys. If Birdsell as a serious shoulder injury, he may not be ready for any 2025 time in the Friendly Confines. Let's hope for the best, as he projects to be a valuable late-season injury sub for the majors.   

Javier Assad's Situation: Blessing in Disguise?

On the other Hand, Hoyer's probably GLAD for Assad's injury. Hear me out on this. It is clear that major league hitters are starting to figure him out, at least in the sense that they aren't falling for his junk pitches anymore. The guy needs time to adjust.  His WHIP is unacceptably high and his usually good results throwing complex junk are gradually declining to a projected 4.5 to 5 ERA range. As I've said elsewhere, he's got 6 pitches but no dominant strikeout pitch, particularly against righties. In 2024, he looked like a back-end rotation guy from the 1980s. He needs to sort that out quickly so he can recover a 3.5 ERA profile. 

There's many arguments that an injury could work out for the best. Assad has options remaining, but I don't want to burn one right at Opening Day. Sitting on the injury list for a few weeks would give us added flexibility. Tommy Hottovy could give him an extra-long recovery from an oblique so they can see what they have in their other guys. He can study his options with pitching guru Tyler Zombro while he's waiting. When back, Assad may have some games as a long reliever to test out what he's working with. If the adjustments aren't immediately clicking, THEN he pulls an option so Assad can sort out the details in AAA. But if his stuff does click, he can save it for when he needs to make space for other hot, rising guys. 

All in all, Assad's injury almost seems scripted, as if the Cubs had a hunch that they'd need an extra starter right from the start of camp. With their early season start this year, Counsell can breathe easy that there's no shortage of options. 

We all expect several more guys to hit roadbumps before Opening Day, but of all starters to be missing time, Assad was THE GUY you'd want to see "strategically" sidelined.