Cubs Land Ryan Brasier: Why I love this move
Entry posted by ryanrc in Transactions and Roster Construction ·
Cubs Video
Hello Cubs World,
WELL ISNT THIS CONVENIENT!!!
Jed's Dead with Delight
Man, did this play right into Jed Hoyer's hand. You couldn't author a better situation for his brand of dealmaking = more importantly, it is a great fit for our swiss army knife approach to the bullpen. He wasn't even the worst 26th man on the Dodgers roster, just the odd man out for Kirby Yates by a small margin. Three lesser pitchers have Dodger jobs simply for role reasons, and the rest are projected to vie for top 20 type elite results (even though we know half of those will be hurt).
You see folks, Ryan Brasier fits right into the Cubs' school of thought for pitching. He keeps walks low, relies on command and confusion, and generates a ton of chase swings instead of whiffs. He doesn't throw many balls and pounds the strike zone with ground ball inducing sliders and sinkers, but when he does throw junk, everyone chases it way above league average. Put simply, he LOOKS easy to hit even though he isn't, and can make good hitters swing at garbage.
Comparing the Options: Brasier versus my own Jensen/Robertson Preferences
Ryan is intimidating. He doesn't achieve this through velocity or strikeouts, but rather through psychologically dominating the opponent with many "ghost peripherals" such as extension and statistical advantage. His one unique offering to the squad is the ability to smoothly toggle between a righty sinker strtikeouT ptich and a lefty cutter strikeout pitch, while leading the way with a bread and butter, almost Kerry Woods slider that is increasingly rare in the league, despite being dominant 15 years ago. Thus he is simultaneously a Cubs style pitcher while also having his own unique repertoire for achieving the results
Ryan Brasier Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com
He leads with a rather classic slider that he uses over 40 percent of the time. He commands the slider very precisely in a small range, and compliments that with a 4 seamer, sinker, and cutter. he has a pretty smooth distribution chart of pitch types- he paints a smooth range of outcomes on a righty arc and uses all four pitches over 10 percent. Batters have to be prepared for pretty much any type of horizonal or vertical break, anywhere in the strike zone. This is the preferred pitch chart for a Cubs pitcher these days - more offerings, smooth command across a range of types, no free passes to first, and no clear "tells" that the next pitch is coming in a particular part of the strike zone. His high extension also makes him look like a 97 mph fireballer despite being close to average, which saves us on injury risks.
In some ways he's the inverse of Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both of those guys are from a prior generation, and succeeded at it, which makes them increasingly unusual for today's hitters. They both go for whiffs and dont rely on chases. Both heavily lean on plus-plus cutters and use them all day long, rather than sliders or 4 seam fastballs, whereas most other power pitchers work in reverse. And, both use their secondary pitches to create confusion without painting a smooth arc across the chart. Instead, their pitches each have as dramatically different shape from each other as humanly possible, daring batters to adjust to such extreme differences rather than worry about tipping the batter off that such a pitch may be coming. In other words, they ram hard to hit pitches down your throat and don't worry about smoothly disguising these nasty pitches.
Personally, I still wanted a Robertson or Jansen to break up the monotony of Cubs style pitching. Even still, if I'm Jed Hoyer, I have confidence that Brasier can repeat last season easily, with just small tweaks, and low risk of blowout arm.
On the other hand, if we are gonna stick with the Cubs new school philosophy, Brasier was one of the best options on the market this year. He has recently been the poster child for the Cubs style success since adding his cutter to his mix in 2023 and dialing back the 4 seamer.
I cant give the team any MOJO bonuses for improving their diversity of pitching styles out of the bullpen.
Still, he's at least as good as Ryan Pressly in 2025, for a bargain price.
Hat tip to you, Jed, for making this work- he's worth every penny at roughly 5 million for a 1.5 WAR setup guy, whereas we are paying 8.5 million for Pressly as a 1.5 WAR projected closer (by my own numbers).
I just wish he was a lefty.
Cubs Bullpen Revisited
Cubs's back five now consists of:
Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Theilbar, and Tyson Miller.
Based on their combined 2023-2024 performances, this is the best backend to a bullpen in the national league central division OVERALL, despite a lack of a true top 20 relief pitcher in the bunch. The righties are all projected as rank 20-50 bullpen arms in MLB, with Hodge surprisingly leading the statistical charge here. Thielbar is probably the steal of the bunch if he remains healthy, in terms of players being paid below their true worth, and I have him as atop 50 reliever and a rank 10-15ish bullpen lefty. I would have given a .5 WAR MOJO bonus to adding the unusual offerings of Robertson or Jansen, but Brasier is good enough to match their performance in 2025. That's still a ton of talent. I would summarize this as an 8th ranked MLB bullpen because of its insane depth in the minors, and 4th in NL.
Conclusion
Sign Alex Bregman, and lets goooo. That's the final step for this juggernaut roster. Bregman plus Brasier brings us up to about 98 wins before injury, and 95.5 after adjustment. Its not my highest war calculation for this season, but its enough to scare even the Dodgers. I still wanted Tanner Scott and Randal Grichuk to make it all add up, but I'll take the trio of Pressly, Brasier, and Bregman as a close plan B.
Okay, that's a contender for a World Series.
Edited by ryanrc
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