Hey Cubs world, 

I was happy to see the PECOTA projections, like most everyone else. The Cubs were ranked 3rd in the National League at 90.6 wins. However, I'm not a huge fan of PECOTA because it is a conservative projection system. I'll get into the simplest differences between mine and theirs. 

Only 3 GREAT teams this year? Hmm. Nope. 

PECOTA averages are....too averaged... because they are based too heavily on individual players as opposed to the special correlative effects between them. That bias tends to compress the dataset and soften the outliers- the best and worst teams are both consistently understated, and a few great organizations are "gut feel" expected to beat expectations every year, because they have "it". Let's take a look at the National League projections. In my opinion, PECOTA understates the records of the top 5 teams in the league and overstates the records of mediocre teams with weak chemistry.

NL East	Sim W	Sim L	Sim W %	DC RS	DC RA	Div %	WC %	Playoff %	PAdj %	WS %	D1 %	D7 %
Atlanta	92.4	69.6	.570	761	662	52.3	37.7	90.0	68.1	9.7	0.0	0.0
New York	88.9	73.1	.549	777	704	27.2	50.3	77.5	50.5	6.0	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	87.5	74.5	.540	765	707	20.1	49.3	69.4	41.4	4.6	0.0	0.0
Washington	74.2	87.8	.458	667	732	0.4	5.2	5.6	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	62.3	99.7	.385	616	789	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NL Central	Sim W	Sim L	Sim W %	DC RS	DC RA	Div %	WC %	Playoff %	PAdj %	WS %	D1 %	D7 %
Chicago	90.6	71.4	.559	750	670	79.4	7.5	86.9	62.6	7.1	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	80.2	81.8	.495	672	683	9.4	16.7	26.1	11.6	0.6	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	78.6	83.4	.485	698	724	7.4	11.2	18.6	8.2	0.9	0.0	0.0
Pittsburgh	75.1	86.9	.464	672	732	2.3	3.5	5.8	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	73.5	88.5	.454	736	810	1.5	3.4	4.9	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
NL West	Sim W	Sim L	Sim W %	DC RS	DC RA	Div %	WC %	Playoff %	PAdj %	WS %	D1 %	D7 %
Los Angeles	103.8	58.2	.641	834	625	97.7	2.3	100.0	98.1	20.7	0.0	0.0
Arizona	86.4	75.6	.533	778	721	1.6	60.5	62.1	31.7	2.3	0.0	0.0
San Diego	82.5	79.5	.509	729	715	0.6	37.5	38.1	17.1	0.8	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	78.0	84.0	.481	663	691	0.1	14.9	15.0	4.9	0.3	0.0	0.0
Colorado	55.5	106.5	.343	627	870	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

MOJO- My Own Unique Approach to Team Chemistry Adjustments 

Chemistry is comprised of six elements which I call Total MOJO, for short.

Total MOJO = Momentum + Organization +Job Role + Offering Diversity + Injury Risk + Slugging Bonus

In my approach, I modify basic WAR projections with "bonus points" that capture the completeness of a team and its spirit: 

Momentum - great teams, like the 2023 Braves, play their career best ball due to high team morale and charismatic stars leading the late season battle. These teams get hot and become unbeatable for stretches of time, particularly in September and October. As part of momentum, I also consider the value of having multiple young players on a confident trajectory to have breakout statistical performances. It is in this particular area where the Cubs shine, with PCA, Busch, and Shaw all with high upside potential on the same roster at once. That sort of exuberant youth energy tends to pay off- just like the 2016 Cubs. I Give these three players higher projections precisely because of the team chemistry we saw elements of last year. 

Organization - some organizations are "winning organizations", with exceptional coaches and managers that fight for every win. Like the Brewers, Astros, and of course the Yankees- they seem to get the best out of healthy players. I don't give the Cubs any help in this category, but with Counsell and Hottovy on board, and with our new coaching hires helping with hitting, pitching, and running, I don't take points away from them either. If they find coaching magic, they can outperform projections. 

Job Roles- a great roster has a "complete set" of role players for every key postseason role- a true closer, an electric leadoff hitter, a scary cleanup hitter, a worthy ace, and so on. The Cubs are one of the most complete teams in the National League (Finally), with the only question marks having to do with their mid-rotation (Can Boyd and Taillon both give us great seasons like last year?), missing a lefty in the bullpen (teams should have at least 2), and, of course, a rookie at our most cursed position since Bryant, 3rd Base. Still, I give them a slight edge for being nearly complete and hard to improve in any role - perhaps Bregman over Shaw, or snagging Danny Coulombe would work.    

Offering Diversity - Finally, a great bullpen is a Swiss Army Knife of great pitches to handle every type of opponent. Similarly, a great hitting lineup has the right balance of bat skills to put together rallies, get game winning RBIs, and flexibility to shift between powerball and smallball as the situation requires. The Cubs have great balance overall, and can lean on elite fielding and baserunning skills for an edge, but aren't slugging quite high enough in homers to confidently win in the postseason. As far as starting pitching, they could still benefit from a true power pitching strikeout artist in their rotation to face Dodger-type lineups. 

Injury Adjustments - Certain teams put too much faith in a healthy lineup. I deduct up to 3 WAR for teams with highest injury risk in key roles. Most of this risk is already picked up by other stats, such as Job Role and Offering Diversity, so I try not to double count those penalties. I do not award bonus WAR for teams with healthy profiles, thus I must be careful that injury deductions are overall offset by other positive MOJO team stats. 

Slugging -  This is a very small bonus for regular season play but is a larger factor in the small sample, high pressure postseason situation. The top 2 or 3 teams per League receive +1 win bonus, and the bottom 2 or three are deducted 1 win. Slugging can also be an expected tiebreaker stat in close postseason matchups. This bonus structure clearly evolves over the history of baseball, but currently it's a homerun biased game with low batting averages. Even after recent rule adjustments to improve baserunning opportunities, low contact rates still favor power hitting. In the old days, the bonus went to hit tool instead. 

Cubs Total MOJO = 1

M +2; O 0; J +1; O +.5 Injury -2.5 Slugging 0 

In prior articles, I projected the cubs at 95 wins; however, I was including all positive MOJO and not injury risk, which is a brand-new stat I'm experimenting with. Thus, after applying injury risk, I have Cubs at 92.5 wins. 

Cubs got docked 2.5 injury wins for relying on Steele, Boyd, Swanson, Tucker, and Hoerner (-.5 points each) to all have healthy seasons despite struggles with injury in 2024.  I am giving them +1.5 momentum for their exciting young core of PCA, Busch, Shaw, all expecting breakout seasons, and .5 momentum for the morale boost for adding a true superstar (Tucker).  They get +1 for housing a very complete team, and +.5 for having a better-than-average balance between fielding, hitting, pitching styles.

How much can MOJO affect projections?

Overall, Total MOJO runs in the range of about +- 10 wins, but with most teams falling within a tight +- 2 WIN range.

I give less weight to Offering Diversity overall than I do Momentum and Organization adjustments. Momentum and Organization can go up to an extreme of +-4 wins, whereas Job Roles and Offering Diversity are limited to +- 2 wins, and usually fall within +- 1. Bigger spreads are used to offset league-wide injury risks. A full suite of job roles and offering diversity both have the ability to diminish the overall importance of a marginal injury.   

For 2025, my largest positive MOJO adjustments for the NL are for the Brewers (+6),  Dodgers (+5), and Phillies (+2.5), whereas on the negative side, the Rockies (-5)  are an incomplete team with terrible morale, especially regarding Kris Bryant and starting pitching woes. For comparison, the White Sox had a -10 MOJO for 2024, the worst MOJO score in the 21st century. 

My method for assigning it is fairly subjective and speculative so far and needs fine tuning with clearer metrics. I use a fairly simple WAR approach for a base projection. Those base wins are really just a sum of net WAR adjustments from the last years' actual results at a player level. It turns out to be similar to PECOTA, but with a handful of teams getting more exaggerated win bonuses, with others docked additional loses for weak MOJO. 

Those Damned Brewers

The Brewers and the Devil Rays both have uncanny abilities to win above expectations They have several years in a row of greatly outperforming their raw stats, and winning tough, close games seems to be their mutual superpower.
Unsurprisingly, they both rely on player momentum and an organizational gift for player development, rather than money. They deeply invest in finding the Upside to the players they understand. 

Cubs, on the other hand, had quite negative MOJO in 2023 and 2024, suffering mostly in the bullpen and the corner infield positions. In raw WAR, I have the Brewers at 82, so I gave them 6 Total MOJO, especially for their outrageous fall momentum and organizational success: (M=+2, O=+3, J=+1 ...the rest zero ). They have had tremendous late season momentum for the past 5 years. They have a winning organization that routinely finds gems among retreads and prospects. they have a slight job role edge for having the most complete smallball roster in the National League, and they are average when it comes to pitch/hit offering diversity, having given up the best closer in the game. Compared to a 9 MOJO 2024, they are losing 1 J point, 1 O point, and 1 momentum point.

I project the top five NL teams as follows: 

TEAM        WINS   MOJO      MY BASE WAR     WINS VS PECOTA

Dodgers   110         5                      105               +6.2

Atlanta     94         2                       92                 +1.6

Cubs         92.5      1                       91.5               +1.9

Phillies     90       2.5                     87.5               +2.5 

        
Brewers  88        6                        82               +8.8 

Conclusion

Everyone has their own "gut feel" for sports - usually for fans, that feel is unearned and undeserved. My base WAR projections are fairly vanilla- they tend to be within 3 wins of the consensus WAR and PECOTA systems. However, those systems are generally conservative and tend to disregard the recent history of extraordinary play coming from specific franchises. My gut tells me these six statistics are excellent for adjusting player-driven projections at a team level. Total MOJO is my attempt to capture common gaps between basic statistics and observed history. It's something I will be spending years toying with. Still, I hope to have a good enough statistical model worth promoting publicly in a year or two. 2025 is the "alpha test" for my MOJO approach, so for now, I'm not fully revealing my methods.