Hello Cubs World,

      I was in the middle of prepping my slow cooker for chili, and an interesting thought exercise popped into my head. 

Every once in a while, seismic shifts occur in a sport's competitive landscape: expansion teams, relocations, ownership change, and the like. Pretty soon, the collective bargaining agreement will expire. In 2 years, we could see a shuffling of many rules, especially related to player salary tax/cap/veterancy structures. However, teams are already preparing for that future and are in many ways revealing their long term commitments to competitive spending through their willingness to take on big player contracts and their willingness to "spend form behind" in a tough division.  I'm currently pondering how the new tiers of competition will look. There's a good chance we add 2 expansion teams, but I'll pretend that if we do, they would slot in cleanly to the same levels of spending as their rival franchises of the same tier. 

1 Are the Cardinals and White Sox really permanently down a tier, in terms of spending and club competitiveness, from their old heights? 

2 Are the Orioles and Diamondbacks really up a tier?

3 What are the tiers, anyway?

Setting those questions aside, let's dig into a list of tiers with an explanation of some of the clubs in the list. If I am ambitious, I'll come back and add more detail to this list later!

The Tiers of Franchises, a speculative rough draft, according to yours truly. 

TIER ONE: THE DODGERS

I believe this franchise is in a tier of its own for as long as the league permits it to be. It will likely outspend tier 2 by a small margin for the foreseeable future. ITs tv deal and possible rebranding as "the Japanese-led all-star team in MLB" makes it an insanely valuable franchise with special power. However, it does make me wonder if other franchises are developing similarly distinctive cultural identities to raise their own value and following. 

TIER TWO: THE BIG APPLES
METS

YANKEES

The two New York clubs love to spend and outdo each other on the field. That won't change. And they both have superstars on their roster under long term contracts. The real question is if they can take on other mega-contracts in the next few years, or if they become too locked in tightly to keep landing huge stars. 

TIER THREE: THE HIGH ROLLERS

PHILLIES

BLUE JAYS

RED SOX

PADRES

Each of these teams could threaten at any moment to get into a bidding war on big contracts. However, there will be quite a bit of volatility on these rosters over the next two years, especially on starting rotations. These are teams that will spend to be competitive, no matter the climate or the toughness of their division. 
TIER FOUR: THE WINNERS

ASTROS

BRAVES

CUBS

RANGERS

This is your tier of big market clubs that angle to compete for the division every year and should be fearsome opponents for years to come. They also have very strong brands and keep the fans happy. However, they are unlikely to dish out the biggest deals anytime soon. They try to outsmart the other big market teams above with "clever" uses of their budgets. The Braves and Cubs have knack for securing team-friendly contracts, although the latter doesn't produce homespun talent at quite the rate of the former. The Rangers are a very volatile club that usually spends more on hitting than pitching and suffers for it; however, they recently won a World Series. 

TIER FIVE: THE INTERMITTENT SPENDERS

ANGELS

GIANTS

DIAMONDBACKS

CARDINALS

These are the teams that oscillate the most in their spending levels. They seriously push in their chips for a few years, and then perform multi year rebuilds with deeply cut budgets while licking their wounds. Of the four, only the Diamondbacks are in a good place in 2025 but maybe be about to fall off a cliff by 2028. The rest are on the rise but rebuilding from bad showings. The Cardinals should be out of their spending slump by 2027. 

TIER SIX: THE FEISTY MID-MARKET COMPETITORS

ORIOLES (this is the NEW Orioles- no longer bottom dwellers)

TIGERS

BREWERS

RAYS (They annually outperform their spending more than any other team) 

TWINS

ATHLETICS (Assuming they are in Vegas or Portland soon. if Sacramento, tier seven)

This is your list of team that is not going to make headlines with lengthy contracts; however, they have strong farm systems, a will to win, and great coaching. These teams are the most efficient spenders: they often "Beat the market" and try to trade back frequently with bigger markets to land pre-arbitration stage players whenever possible. They always seem to manage a couple of stars to anchor a young club.    

TIER SEVEN: DON'T COUNT US OUT YET! Small Market Heroes

NATIONALS

REDS

GUARDIANS

MARINERS

ROYALS

This is your tier of teams with fanbases who never expect to win a world series, or even a division, but can be proud of occasional wildcard showings and better than .500 ball. They have longer rebuild periods than average. If they ever do make a Pennant or World Series game, they do so as an underdog using lottery ticket players to carry them forwards, which can only happen so many times per generation. Truly, many of these franchise markets could support a TIER SIX ballclub, if they had the right owner, but under current guidance aren't reaching full market potential. Some may spend abruptly mid-season if they have a good luck situation, particularly the Nationals and Reds. 

TIER EIGHT: WE'RE DOOMED : PRAYING FOR GIANT METEOR

WHITE SOX

ROCKIES

PIRATES

MARLINS

These teams are simply not competitive under current ownership for more than 2 years forward  and need some rebooting to reach ANY 2020s post-season game. Rumors swirl every year they will change owners or locations. Personally, I think the White Sox will find their Way back to Tier 6 eventually, which was their historic spot; but the Sox are building slowly, minimally for 2 more years. Rockies and Pirates are simply mismanaged and have no excuse for their low spending and crappy vision. They should stay where they are and petition the league for higher spending owners with a real vision. They have nice brands and great ballparks. The Rockies could reach Tier 6 again at any moment with a will to win, with $160-$190 million spending annually after 2027, and the Pirates should be like the Guardians and re-commit to a higher spending target of $120 million in Tier 7. No more $60-80 million payrolls in the majors, please. The Marlins are a lost cause and will continue to suck. They should relocate the team to either Nashville or Charlotte, and with a change of name (Mountaineers? that sorta thing) they could move up to the top of TIER FIVE and spend like the Angels!!!.  

THE SALARY CAP? YES, BUT......

 I endorse a $100m annual minimum payroll in the new agreement. (obviously this goes up over time as league revenues increase). I would also endorse a $500k bonus money penalty for teams spending under $110 million, and another $250k bonus money penalty under $120 million, to be distributed to all other teams under the competitive balance tax levels but over $120 million. Teams should only be able to go under this $100 floor number once every fourth year for a "deep rebuild", and even still only as low as $80 million until hitting a $100 tax. However, teams also lose their seventh round draft pick that same summer, or the following summer if they went too low after the draft.  

For Tax tiers, I endorse a two-tier system, instead of four tiers. I would continue the first- and second-year escalator rates but drop the THIRD year of luxury spending. It is too punitive. TIERS: 1) $260 m first tax threshold, 2) $280, second tier. Thus, the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, could perpetually spend in the second tear, second escalator range if they really wanted to, but it would generate substantial revenue sharing outcomes. 

Finally, I Support a $360m salary cap, with 10% of the net present value of deferred salaries counting towards that cap (with an estimated interest rate), with salary deferrals starting to count 2+ years from the players' last day with the club. So suppose the Dodgers have 1.3 billion in deferred money spread over 20 years. Not counting inflation this would be $65 million/year towards the cap... but counting inflation would be closer to $40 million. as that number slowly dropped, so would their cap hit, across 20 years. Due to their huge commitments, this rule would effectively cap the Dodger's long term spending ability to about $320 million a year beginning in 2027, and thus would be the only team who couldn't spend active payroll in the $320-$360 million range for years to come. On the other hand, it would also lock in their advantage for years to come, as their time-value discounted deferred money deals are unlikely to be imitated by any other organization. 

MY suggested tiers: YEAR ONE                    SUBSEQUENT YEARS       DRAFT PICK PENALTY FOR YEARS 2+
$260 million             20%                                 40%                             RULE 4 pick moved back 

$280 million+           35%                                 70%                             RULE 4 pick moved back                                                                                                                                                                AND forfeit 9th round pick years 3+

                                                                                                                Pick auctioned to the highest bidder under tax line.

This last trick- 9th rounders being auctioned - is a fun way to reset the value of picks and drive the market upwards. Similarly, for teams under the salary floor, they also would auction their sacrificed 7th rounders to the highest bidder.  Again, teams over the tax line couldn't participate in bidding. This auction strategy would favor teams in a usual 180 to 260 million dollar spending range but who were rebuilding and looking for an edge -  willing to overpay for one extra lottery ticket on a decent draft pick. This money would be kept by the league-wide player benefits pool and would not benefit the auctioning team directly.