Stratos
-
Posts
3,908 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Stratos
-
I think Jed may have a purposeful strategy not to spend big on SP. There's a lot of variance with pitchers including getting hurt frequently. They may not want to risk a season on a 30 million AAV man getting hurt, even needing TJS etc. A 4 WAR pitcher goes down with TJS and a team on the playoff fringes like the Cubs have been are basically out of the playoffs for sure. Theo did similar with draft picks. Pitching prospects flame out at a higher rate so he drafted position guys and used FA and trades to grab SP.
-
Can't see them cutting payroll after not making the playoffs again and adding Tucker
-
I assume they carry 2 infielders on the bench as usual. Last year it was usually a corner guy (Wisdom) and someone who could play SS and middle INF (Mastro) so they could cover anywhere in a pinch. If Shaw gets a shot at 3B he can cover SS if Nico/Swanson get hurt, plus 2b. They also still have Mastro and Vazquez on the 40. They just signed that Vidal guy who can play anywhere but mostly SS/2b and has nothing to prove in AAA plus looks to be out of options and they gave up Mervis for. I think one of those guys gets a bench spot (likely Vidal) plus a corner guy . Not sure if there's a decent guy out there who plays both 3b/1b so hard to say what they do at 1b if they also want a Rojas type backing up Shaw at 3b. I think Jonathan Long (RHB) will be the primary 1b in Iowa, making Mervis expendable.
-
Here's the list you might be referencing: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mlb-largest-contracts-2.html Of those 24 contracts, 12 were signed pre-2020 where we can say we have enough to judge them in hindsight. Of those 12, i'd say only 3 were worth it (Harper, Cole, Arod's first deal). Most of the rest were absolute disasters. Seems pretty clear that if you sign a guy to a big deal in their mid-20's like Harper/Soto/Arod its typically worth it (Trout's extension was some bad luck with injuries still in his prime.) but if you're signing a huge deal when a guy is 29-30+ y/o you're a fool unless you're the Mets/Dodgers and can pay 70m AAV for a few star years while the rest are pedestrian. For the vast majority of teams the data just doesn't back up the risk and you're playing a bad hand hoping to get really lucky.
-
According to Fangraphs, before this signing the Cubs are at 191m in tax spending for 2025. That gives them about 50m to spend, minus around 10m in approx space they'll leave, so 40m in space left, is this correct? New loogy costs just under 3m so we're at 37m left. We're all guessing they sign another reliever, probably a closer-type, plus a SP and infield bench bat. Let's say 10m for the reliever. So 27m left. Most of that will go to the SP via trade/FA, probably 15-20m, leaving around 7 to 12m for bench bats and taking fliers on some guys for the pen/bench (MLB or minor league deals). Wildcard here is Sasaki. We get him for league minimum and it opens up 14-19m. That would make a trade for a quality 3B/2B utility type on the INF like Brandon Lowe a possibility (he'll make 10.5m) plus they could easily upgrade their closer-type to a Hoffman or Scott with 11m to spare, which could be spent on the pen/bench.
-
This is definitely the loogy signing. Minter is possibly better but also projects the same on WAR, he was hurt last year and ended the year on the IL and is coming off hip surgery. He's also a bounce-back guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._J._Minter I agree they also need a quality late-inning reliever capable of closing, like a Yates. Agree these savings need to be spent elsewhere. If they don't spend at least 230m i'm not subscribing to MLB.TV or Marquee and am watching the games for free online.
-
I don't think he needs to be fixed. He's pretty average for a reliever at this point, so he's fine. He's almost on par with Chafin according to XFIP and projections. I thought you didn't want the Cubs to spend much on relievers?
-
Well he can get out lefty hitters.
-
Well as I said, virtually all the other options suck too. 6m is probably too much. His fielding the last 2 seasons is probably influenced by luck, like his hitting was in 21-22 due to high BABIP. Seems more an average fielder, maybe a bit above average. I don't know his scouting because he was a 26th round pick and a non-prospect.
-
They may prefer a bench guy to play 2b over 1b given Nico's surgery.
-
Josh rojas sucks but so do most of the other non-Bregman 3b so as long as he doesn't cost much whatevs.
-
Yeah Sasaki decision probably is the domino to fall in the market and for the Cubs. They'll know if they need to acquire another SP and sets the budget for their relievers and for a bench bat if any. What's the posting cut off date for Sasaki?
-
He was just DFA'd last week. Makes some 40-man space, more backup options at 3b, 2b, CF, SS. etc Let's them promote Long to Iowa if they want.
-
That's exactly what they're doing. Trading out assets for cost savings because Ricketts won't spend at the level the 3rd highest revenue team should. During Theo's run we could have held onto Cease or Torres if the team spent a bit more money to acquire a quality SP or closer instead of lacking serious talent and surplus the last few years because our farm system sucked. If we had Cease alone we'd have been in the playoffs in 2023 and probably 2024. Torres would have also given us 2-3 more wins at 3B each of the last couple of years as well, not to mention an upgrade on Russell in 2018-19. Might have nabbed us the NL Central in 2019 too. Thanks Tom.
-
It could also be this soon: 1. Snell 2. Yamamoto 3. Ohtani 4. Glasnow 5. Sasaki
-
Well what matters is if Jed thinks he can get more wins spending that 24m on Montgomery vs another player or combo of players. I agree 5m isn't a lot though. But he has to make choices, like 21m for a Buehler vs 24m for Montgomery etc. Say the Dbacks threw in a few million, i'd prefer Montgomery for 21m a lot more than Buehler.
-
Jeds job is to squeeze as much potential WAR out of the budget Ricketts gives him in order to maximize the # of team wins, so Jed has to care.
-
If Walker Buehler gets 1/21 in this market I have no issues with acquiring Montgomery if it costs us nothing valuable.
-
Teoscar's contract apparently has 23m in deferred money so that's nice. But still counts towards the current luxury tax right?
-
It was the 20th biggest deal ever at the time, and among all active players in 2016 the deal gave Heyward the 18th highest AAV in baseball. It was a big deal but not sure i'd call it a megadeal. He was also coming off his age 25 season, so it makes sense they were willing to go 8 years. Would they give a 400m or 450m deal to Tucker going into his age 29 season when the extension takes effect, which would make it the 4rd highest contract in baseball history? Very doubtful. Unless we get good AAV value like the Swanson and Heyward deals were at the time, it looks like the only way we get a player of his caliber is via draft or trade.
-
If my job were on the line i'd probably trade one of my best prospects too.
-
I used to buy a lot of the Baseball Weekly newspapers. It's crazy to remember back when the internet didn't exist you'd wait for the next morning to read the boxsxore in your local newspaper haha, and once a week they'd publish the stats for all players on each team.
-
Are you saying teams will trade for bad contracts to try to keep tanking with a floor? That's very possible. But then that still frees money on the team that traded the bad contract. If the rules of the cap and floor and revenue sharing ends up resulting in the same amount (or possibly more) of total team spending on players in an average offseason then what does it matter? Its possible that the salaries for star players are suppressed in FA while the other FA players earn more. Maybe studying other sports leagues is needed.
-
Ricketts would probably love another excuse not to spend big money.
-
Cubs Meeting With Japanese Ace Roki Sasaki
Stratos replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's bad for fans of the other 29 teams, but I wonder if its bad for baseball overall to have a super-team? They aren't the Bulls, but the Bulls were good for the NBA. I wonder if the Torre-era Yanks were good for the MLB? I assume so. I don't think you can punish the Dodgers for past behaviour that didn't break rules. I don't think the deferred money on Ohtani affects the luxury tax, right? They're already paying 103m least year in luxury taxes, you gotta wonder how they can slow down the Dodgers domination?
