Stratos

Anybody on this forum could have written an article saying "Cubs probably out on the high end FAs" and have an 80% chance of being correct every year. Don't see how Bob is breaking any news here, but using the word "probably" sounds more like speculation.

Glad we didn't sign Bellinger to a 5+ year deal.

If you're 21 and hit like he did including the power #s as his first season in AAA i think that's an achievement for him. Much more experienced and craftier league with pitchers who have competed in the MLB. I can't see how opinions about him would change much if at all based on 2024. With his power, nice swing & approach, and selectivity i think he has a solid chance to hit with success in the MLB even with the Ks, which often just comes with power guys. The fielding, Ks, and gangly running are what may hold back his upside potential, not the power.

They couldn't really look to add Soto if they couldn't find interest to move Bellinger. I'm not really concerned about the tight purse strings of Jed ....yet. Could be just trying to maximize dollars towards actual good players, which I've been clamoring for years for. But then we've already dropped a million+ for a negative WAR catcher who's out of options that another team DFA'd. We'll see at the end of Jan. No need to panic on every move or non-move. We're not going to sign every SP so Kikuchi is just one of many. Reducing payroll after a 83 win season isn't good business.

Tauchman non-tendered was interesting. I agree its odd they couldn't even get a bit of cash in a trade for him, but age isn't on his side. To be honest, it makes some sense they ditched Tauchman since they have 4 starting OF already with Bellinger and one of the Iowa OF prospects probably comes up if there's any injuries, or at the very least have a good chance to be in the majors by mid-season. That would leave Tauchman the odd man out and he has no options left, so there's a decent chance they would have cut him and eat his salary at some point in the year if he couldn't be traded. Canario or a minor-league invite could make the team as a 5th OF out of ST, if they even need one. We have lots of CF depth already. If Suzuki has to move back to RF because of an OF injury there's lots of options in the minors to start or platoon at DH. Even Shaw could do it. With Cowles, Shaw, Vazquez, Mastro on INF and Bellinger/Mervis/Ballesteros as 1B backup there's a chance the Cubs could fill out their whole bench with whomever is in the org right now and just rely on minor-league ST invites to add depth. This saves several million towards actual good acquisitions this winter. I'd bet they find a cheaper/better RH bench corner bat to replace Wisdom in case Busch struggles vs LHP, but i'd prefer they dumpster dive for that. Belli can start at 1B if Busch gets hurt, no need to spend lots.

Also sorry but the above doesn't deserve it's own thread, no idea where to put it

No Soto, no TOR, no nobody. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/cubs-rumors-unlikely-sign-top-starting-pitchers-max-fried-corbin-burnes-blake-snell.html

He's projected for some SB, negative defensive value, and following slash-line: .235 .313 .352 That comes out to a 98 wRC+ projection. Amazing that a line like that is considered "average" hitting these days and by some miracle a projected 1.7 WAR.

His injuries were elbow-related so not exactly good, but would otherwise love to acquire him if he's a solid bounce-back candidate. He was due about 7m in arbitration so obviously the Jays don't think he's likely to hit that value. No idea what he'll get as FA, yeah he could go back to the Jays, he's a Toronto-native also.

If that happens I'm not watching next year. Doubtful they reduce payroll

Or Nuke Laloosh

Any relation to DJ Herz?

He's had an elite chase rate the last 2 seasons too. But below average K's/whiffs, could explain the soft contact. Threw the change-up the least last year. .161 xBA on his fastball. He had a very low .222 BABIP, very high 85% LOB%, and a low 7% HR/FB last year, which all seems pretty unsustainable and not usual for him, so regression is virtually assured which seems obvious given his ERA. His xFIP last year was 4.46, but Jed doesn't seem to look at xFIP much based on past signings. We didn't get him for much so who cares I guess.

I can't see the Cubs trading Bellinger before they have some other deal in place. They could be gauging interest for future moves. Honestly, Seiya in RF and a better bat with more power at DH that likely comes cheaper than Bellinger is a possible move. Money saved could be spent elsewhere, like pitching/catching. Soto is also a move but that's far-fetched until we see the Cubs meeting with him at least. It wouldn't be that hard to trade for a bad-fielding MLB hitter who can DH and hit better than Belli. They'd be trading Belli's defense in RF and position versatility for more thump, and we already have several guys in the lineup that are glove-first players (PCA/Nico/Dansby) & no elite hitters so that may make sense. Less likely they go 3-4+ years on a FA given all our hitting prospects. The risk is losing the depth Bellinger brings for PCA/Busch at CF and 1B in case of injury. For CF depth we still have 3 young OF prospects in Iowa on the 40-man (Alcantara and possibly Canario can play CF), plus Tauchman who is passable in CF (good hands/instincts, very average speed/range). Mervis, Ballesteros, and whomever is our corner INF bench guy could cover 1B if Busch is injured, though they're all a likely downgrade from Bellinger.

The Cubs paid around 17.5m for 1 year of Bellinger 2 offseasons ago coming off 3 bad offensive seasons. He's not THAT overpaid. Maybe by 3-5m AAV at most? CF is a hard position to fill with a good player and there's no CF in FA this year even close to his ability. There's a bunch of teams that would want him, he wouldn't be that hard to trade, Cubs would probably just have to eat some money at worst or take on somebody else's overpaid player.

On an MLB deal with no options though? I can't remember. Let's hope he's the 3rd stringer, but i'm not signing a career -0.3 WAR guy for 1.3m to be a 3rd stringer who has no options left.

Omg no. Please no. Amaya doesn't have options left either. Grabbing a 1.5 WAR type FA catcher will cost them 8-10m AAV, probably a 2-year deal. Thaiss is either a placeholder in case a better trade or signing can't be made, or he's Jed's 2nd catcher and Jed thinks he can get more WAR out of that 8-10m AAV by spending on another position, which doesn't seem especially likely to me. Thaiss is a replacement player, a guy you invite to ST on a minor league deal, not someone you want on a 1.3m contract while waiting to acquire a better catcher. The good thing is that he can always be traded later in the offseason if they get someone better i guess. No reason worrying yet.

Thaiss has platooned vs RHP the last few years and he still can't hit.

I'm very much hoping Amaya is the backup catcher on this team. Amaya can block balls and has above-avg power and that's it. He's too slow to ever have much hope about his AVG.

Exactly. He's a replacement player. He can't do anything well except take walks and block balls. He can't hit a baseball. Not for avg or power, he can't run, he can't put the ball in play. Below average pop-time and framing. He's passable to be the 3rd catcher to fill in for injuries but he'd suck as the guy sharing starts with Amaya. Have to assume he's AAA depth (let's hope).

Probably a decent chance we see Cowles in the MLB at some point this year. Only a career 3 games in AAA but he's older and probably more advanced. A likely bench INF candidate at some point. Plays SS/3B/2B, sort of a poor man's Matt Shaw (with more historic K% issues lol). Vazquez in the convo too for the INF bench but might not have the bat. I guess Mastrobuoni might be still around too, though there's gonna be lots of infielders in AAA. Then there's Madrigal, and also Wisdom. Non-tender deadline is Nov 22.

If I were either of them I'd probably go to another team. On the small chance that maybe they have better or different systems at preventing injuries and it makes some kind of difference. I agree Davis is probably gone for good for the reason you stated too. I still like Davis a lot when he's healthy, I hope he does well.

We have no idea what is a Ricketts directive or not, or what Jed believes in or not. All of these discussions are done behind close doors. The only thing we really know is that Tom very likely sets the maximum payroll since its his money and not Jed's. If Jed could have a 280m payroll every year he would. We have no idea about Jed's true feelings on big star contracts, for example. If Jed disagrees with something Tom wants it doesn't matter, Tom is the boss. Is Jed going to quit because of it? I wouldn't, there's only 30 of his job in the world. Jed and most other people are going to publicly go along with it, he certainly isn't going to air his disagreements with his boss in public. I think Tom likely sets certain parameters (e.g. max payroll) and Jed does everything he can to win within those parameters. We don't know what those parameters are. Jed going into 2025 with an expiring contract isn't good though, I think it would mean that Ricketts is at least not 100% happy with Jed's work within those parameters the last few years, which is understandable given the results.

They could do it, but they'd have to trade Paredes for a good young/cheap SP. But there's not much difference in Paredes + Fried vs Adames + good young SP in terms of payroll and WAR. It just seems like a bit of a wash, other than Adames being a bit than younger than any of the top FA SP besides Flaherty.

They should play Paredes full-time at 3B or trade him. For me i would rather keep Paredes than sign Adames and spend all that money on a position we need. Your roster puts our young SP depth into our rotation which leaves us vulnerable when injuries happen, and our pen isn't very good.