Stratos

If it bothers him then he should field better.

Jed will sign the best value for dollar SP most likely, like every year. We need Ricketts to up the total payroll.

Of Happ, Suzuki, and Hoerner i'd trade at least 2 of them. Not this offseason and maybe not even next offseason, but before they become FA. Treat them like we treated Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo. Thank them for their most productive years and move on. I don't want post-prime Happ, Suzuki, or Nico at FA or near-FA prices thus paying even more for the same players who will likely decline in production, I would much rather find the next Happ and Nico in our system (or something close to it) and pay them pre-FA salaries, and maybe sign the next Suzuki as a FA, and put that money saved elsewhere (extensions or FA). They're not going to be a 70 win team if we're saving lots of money on salary to spend elsewhere on players who are just as good or better than late prime or post-prime Happ/Suzuki/Hoerner. Yes we can trade some prospects, we have lots of them. Trading one of Caissie/Alcantara may be fine too depending on the return, since a quality corner FA isn't hard to find in FA.

How did they know Happ was going to be a good player when he was in AAA? How did they know Suzuki or Imanaga were going to be good players when they were in Japan? If the Cubs think a prospect is talented and has a good chance to succeed in the MLB then take a risk and play them. They're taking a risk on PCA right now. They took a risk on Busch and Amaya. The Cubs went with good young talent like Baez, Contreras, Russell, Hendricks etc, with no guarantees they'd be good, added a few good trades and then went into FA and got good players like Zobrist, Lester, Fowler, Heyward, Lackey etc and won a WS. That's not what a small market team does. If the Cubs aren't going to spend 280m on payroll then they need some surplus via some good cheap talent to afford guys who are better than Taillon, Hendricks, Barnhart etc No you keep good young players until just before they hit FA or extend them if you can. Happ and Suzuki aren't going to sign 1 or 2 year extensions, they'd rather hit FA because they'll want more years. You're also paying for past performance with a new Happ/Suzuki extension since they're in their primes now but they'll be 32 when a new extension is signed and will probably want FA-type deals in the 3-4 year range. Too old IMO. If the Cubs want to trade one of Caissie or Alcantara for a guy like Crochet (who btw has had only 1 good full season as a SP and has been seriously hurt) that's fine. Emptying the farm for 1 year of Vladdy or Tucker isn't wise IMO and neither is extending Happ or Suzuki based on what they'll want at that age. I'd much rather take a risk on a young prospect than an expensive older player contract.

I think they should trade Happ and Suzuki before they become FA and replace them with one or both of Alcantara/Caissie or maybe another FA in his prime or via trade. I'd want as many players on this team to be under age 33 as possible. Plus its a chance to add surplus via pre-arb players and reload the farm. The Happ and Suzuki contracts right now are perfect, we get good players through their prime years and get to trade them for value at their peak before they age regress. If we had a quality player in LF or RF right now making pre-arb or even arb money we could afford e.g. Blake Snell and Max Fried in the rotation instead of Blake Snell and Taillon. If we had 3 pre-arb players in the OF and they were good (PCA, Alcantara, Cassie) we could afford the above starters and a lights-out bullpen, or any other upgrades we wanted. If Caissie or Alcantara don't work out then you just sign another FA OF (a good corner OF is virtually always available in FA) and you still have a healthy farm from trading Suzuki and/or Happ. If Jed fundamentally doesn't like something about Caissie or Alcantara that may prevent them from succeeding in the MLB then sure trade them.

Morosi literally speculates on names all the time. He 100% throws names out there and people run with it. He did it at the trade deadline last year.

Well Morosi does this stuff all the time and just drops names he speculated on, that's why I say this. But are it could be based on actual interest, though he'd probably mention a team if he knew. Who knows

Cubs apparently not showing interest in Soto so far. Would jive with Jeds comment on MLB Network that pitching has been the bulk on his outreach efforts so far. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/rays-among-teams-to-have-reached-out-to-soto.html

I think Morosi just dropped a random name per usual and is speculating.

Jed isn't going to empty out the farm for Lowe and Crochet. Maybe 1 player like that but not 2.

Can't see any all-star caliber OF being acquired without a current Cub OF getting traded. They could carry a solid RHB bench OF. Trading good prospects for a top player with only 1 year before FA also hasn't been something Jed has ever done. I think if a major trade happens it probably brings a catcher or pitching.

Obviously they don't know his "ability long term" behind the plate, considering the weight issues, and I never argued longterm viability. Nor did I say he was a finished product. Obviously skills can be improved on, e.g. framing, throwing accuracy etc. But they should have a good idea by now about how well he moves behind the plate, whether he'll be quick enough on the throw transfer and the arm strength to be able to throw runners out etc. If he's slow on the throw transfer or has mediocre arm strength or is slow to move to block balls because of his size and athleticism then expecting those physical abilities to improve much if at all as he ages is unlikely.

I think should they have a good idea by now what Bellasteros will or won't be capable of.

I would 100% deal Caissie before Alcantara. I like both and would keep both if possible. We have lots of talent in the low minors to deal plus guys like Triantos.

I think recently, maybe from the end of season presser, Jed also said they would work to improve processes too. To get the most out of what they already have so players can "overachieve" their projections. Some of that has been with some coaching changes so far, and we've seen some scouting shifts. Who knows what's going on elsewhere behind the scenes that doesn't include personnel change. If they can make the rotation and pen a real strength, including by getting SP depth and forcing some of their young SP to the pen, that would go a long way. If .e.g Wicks were to do well as an SP and Brown/Assad are in the pen that would help us.

True. Hoyer also said they'd try to be "creative" generally. But we have all positions filled with quality regulars besides catcher so unless there's a trade I can't see any quality FA bat wanting to sign here, nor does it even make much sense for us. Pitching should be the focus. Keep in mind that if the Cubs offense was suppressed at home that means the pitching wasn't as good as the results appear either. Cubs were 10th in ERA and 20th in xFIP.

But then they still don't have money for other players like pitching and catching if they choose to stay under the tax

RHB OF bench bat makes sense for PCA and possibly Busch. Belli has no issues vs LHP. For Busch any bat could pinch hit and Belli can slide to 1B and Seiya or someone in the bench could play RF. Same for PCA but Belli slides to CF. Harder to take PCA out because of the glove though. I wonder if they'll full platoon with Busch again, I assume they'll want a RHB just in case they do.

He's about a 1 WAR catcher (keeping in mind the reduced playing time for catchers). He's ok. Jansen has a better bat. Per FG, 2.9 WAR was the median for what a team got out of their catcher position in 2024. Cubs got -0.1 WAR haha

Very good pitcher. Wish he was more durable, but that will probably be reflected in his contract. Hasn't been the arm in recent years so that's a plus. It's an injury that keeps bothering him though.

Fried would about 28 AAV, a top reliever around 13m, Jansen about 8m. That's 49m total. We may need some other pen arms, a bench guy or 2. I guess that may be do-able under the tax but it gets tight. Jed seems to work in FA by highlighting all the players they'd be interested in at each position of need, decide what their market value is, and then sign the player whose contract demand is the best bang for the buck. Exception is players where there's only 1 good or obvious option at that position and they seem to go aggressive for them, like Bellinger the last 2 offseasons.

Nobody can predict the future but these guesses are pretty reasonable.

Anything can happen, but with Cody back the most likely scenario for the offseason given the 50-55m to spend seems to be: a quality SP, a quality late-inning reliever (plus other lesser pen signings), a bench bat or 2, and signing a catcher like Jansen or acquiring one via trade. Good news is that given we got essentially zero WAR in 2024 out of every contract of significance coming off the books (Hendricks, Gomes, Mancini, Neris, Barnhart etc) that means the likelihood we spend that money better this winter and are a better team on paper on Opening Day (injuries aside) is virtually assured. 50 million spent could potentially nab us around 7-8 or so WAR in upgrades over last year, which could get us to 90 wins if we're adding to last year's win total, not including what improvements from Paredes, PCA, Amaya might provide (thought that's made up for Nico missing some time and possible other injuries and regressions).

I think a bunch of those predictions you could easily see them getting another year tacked on though.

Fangraph crowdsource predictions that was just posted thinks about 6/180. Fried they say about 5/135